All Activity

Are we really analyzing post 200 hour gfs. Woof lol

Impressive fog out here, visibilities under 100 ft in places.

Any updates for Tuesday system?

This is only ten days out...this isn't the Weeklies or 300+. That sure looked like it was going to slide the trough from the GOA right into the nation's mid-section. That ridge over the eastern Pac wasn't moving.

All the events we had during the epic stretch were cold events. Blue hill shines in the marginal events where that 630’ elevation really helps them stand out. The two events that really stood out to me were the longer duration event and the event during Valentine’s Day and the day after. But I was most surprised at the long duration event. They were removed from the heaviest echoes for awhile and had close to what I had. I find that hard to believe. There was no physical reason for them to have more. This isn’t an upslope deal either. Also heard from a former observer that they have peculiar ways of measuring because of wind and throws a little uncertainty…..but naturally I get that because I have wind issues too. But to have almost 25” more than I had does not make sense to me. In a winter like that the error bars are fairly high so like I said….whatever….but as someone who feels like they can sniff out oddities…that one surprised me.

Yeah both the low and high pressure are weaker and the low is really slow coming east.

And, eh, not terrible...ridging in the Eastern Pac. I thought it might go to crap after this, but the NAO took a shot of the juice and the EPO fired.

That surface high at 288hrs looks too far east vs 6z.

Even down here I have had 17 measurable snow events since Mid NOV. I'm sure that number is even higher up there(NVT). It works out to pretty much every other day if you were to average it out, which certainly makes it seems even more snowy as Froude mentioned. Edit: I see Jspin posted above and has 18 events documented, so similar.

I just wanted to introduce my new friend...

Yep, Northbridge COOP it seems. I noticed that too I'll keep that in mind, i want to redo all these next year and make them more accurate. Some of the COOP sites drive me crazy they are either suspiciously low all the time or suspiciously high and many of them ALWAYS report in whole numbers which also drives me crazy. Like Thomaston Dam, West Thompson Lake, Mount Carmel in CT are always reporting low and round down...to the nearest integer. Back in the day, especially prior to 2007ish and definitely in the 90s all there was was COOP. Another one is Lawrence, MA COOP it's always been insanely low and whole numbers only, while the Gardner COOP has been on the other end of the spectrum. Care to elaborate? Blue Hill, to me, appears like the snow magnet capital of E MA. They seem to jackpot a lot and do extremely well in marginal situations but it's not like their elevation is 1k+ or something, it's only 635 which im sure helps but not to the extent i see some of these storms and totals they have. Like March 4-6th, 2001, Feb 1-3, 2021 or March 13-15th, 2023 are good examples off the top of my head.

Might be close. Hingham coop had 5.5” more in 14-15.

The best part IMO is getting data faster

thats only changed about 40 times already, i suspect the models arent detecting the block this model run as much as they were during the 0z/06z suites. something to keep our eyes on for sure.

I’d like that Tuesday deal not to rip well into Canada. It’s going to go north, but would like to avoid this ending in 35F drizzle.

If only…. .

They had the big announcement yesterday. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models

I think it was just a caveat, but it didn’t seem like it was a big concern.

I don't like the wall of summer just to our sw lol

-Actually, Dec of 1996, indeed, was still another -ENSO strong -PNA that transitioned to a +PNA in Jan after a 1.8+ rise. -Dec of 1999 had a neutral PNA. So, that isn’t in this group. *Corrected for typo…Dec of 1999

I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit

Big cutter on the GFS with temps in the 50's the day after xmas

Exactly! As events occur, deep learning should ultimately improve the results.

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.