All Activity

We have landfall

Not enough people are talking about the legendary stretch of weather coming up from tomorrow till Saturday. Highs barely past 80 degrees and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in MID JULY. It’ll be the first look ahead to fall weather wise!

In all seriousness, I found a YouTube video of old chuck from 5 months ago. I was delighted to know that it seems like he was doing pretty good.I've talked about Chuck and made up stories about him a few times over the years, in here. Definitely, an integral part of my childhood and teen years, and one of the reasons that I like weather so much along with Dr Greg Forbes and the old weather channel crew. Chuck talks about some of his favorite snow memories in this video.

Lol I Miss old Chuck Rhoads to he's definitely the king of local weather, but i'm talking about Charles Doogley he did our school weather senior year and earned the nickname Chuck Choades due to an instident involving a farmers stolen goat and a jar of extra chunky jiff. The Great part actually has nothing to do with his weather forecasting abilities and everything to do with a jar peanut butter.

Unfortunately it was a photo capture only, camera wasn't set for video out of the box (it's since been set to video)...

Saw my first cicada bee of the season. Summer keeps rolling along. 86F/DP 67F

I was just shy of 3.

71/48 winds gusting to 20. Brilliant day. Might the best of the summer.

if you dont mind me asking what camera do you use? I was planning to get the reolink Duo 3 so I can set up my own time lapse.

Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1

It was the first pitch of the at bat. It made the count 1 ball, 1 strike.

Flash Flood Watch issued beginning at 8 this evening until Thursday evening.

Ditto for Sparta. Looks great. I have a shiptload of them up here. We got five in the last week just from being out on the deck. I've found them crawling across the deck rails and even the deck chairs, and one up the wall of our kitchen! We don't even butt up to the woods, so they must be from the copious amounts of deer wandering through the yard. I just sprayed the hell out of the deck, deck planters, and surrounding lawn with pet safe spray so I'm hoping that does the trick. Ticks in general are really getting out of control and tick borne illness, some serious, continue to rise.

This better not be an omen for next winter.

I have a personal conjecture offering plausible explanation for the cold blob emergence. The NAO has been predominately positive since 2000. That means increased occurrences of west wind in the SS stressing distribution. There may in fact be an AMOC thing going on associated with CC... but, the anomalous amount of westerly wind/low level occurrences interacting with a region that's inherently covered by a very gossamer thermocline should really be explored as factoring in why that region is having trouble recovering from cold upwelling events, over time and aggregated, taking place at large scales. So, ... pretty simple idea really. But here is the NOA's going back many decades. There may in fact be some AMOC involved ..where if the AMOC is 'deflecting' S, due to more surface pooling in the super thermohaline circulation conditioning ( fluxing off Greenland of melt water...), then... introducing the westerly low level wind flux anomaly on balance, those two would certainly be easily and rightfully interpreted as a positive/constructive feed-back in cooling that region.

I bought myself an official Tropo CoCoRaHSC rain gauge (updated version of the Stratus) and mounted it on my deck. It is now neighbors with my new Tempest (up and running for 2 weeks now). I am excited to pay more attention to weather and precipitation tracking now! Also, the Tropo will allow me to keep the haptic rain gauge of the Tempest in check. Let’s go! Now let’s just hope it rains again lol…

I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. The good news so far is that even during the warmest winters, a deep benchmark storm track has been cold enough for snow from December 16th to February 28th. We did have a few occasions though with strong benchmark storms in early December with temperatures that were too warm at the coast for snow. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.

77/61F Improving vis. Dewpoint crashing. Front is through. Surface drought conditions continue.

Jackass seems like a jackass. I rarely see him post. Just posting emojis.

Yesterday's .93" helped, but was hardly anything notable. Unless we get at least one more significant rain I will still end up with another month below 2" total precip. It got me wondering how often this has happened recently, so I went back through the records for the last LAST 2 years and checked: 2026 JUL: 1.80 (to date) JUN: 1.59 MAY: 3.70 APR: 1.49 MAR: 1.62 FEB: 1.70 JAN: .71 2025 DEC: .99 NOV: .83 OCT: 1.86 SEP: 1.60 AUG: .68 JUL: 4.05 JUN: 4.40 MAY: 12.04 APR: 1.77 MAR: 1.74 FEB: 1.20 JAN: .49 2024 DEC: 2.74 NOV: 1.00 OCT: .50 SEP: 3.38 AUG: 10.08 JUL: 1.46 JUN: .82 Unreal. I knew it was bad, but this puts this drought in perspective. 8 months out of the last 25 have been 1" or below 18 of the last 25 months have been below 2". We had 9 straight months below 2" (Apr '26 - Aug '25) and in that stretch had 3 straight months below 1". 10 of the past 11 months have been below 2". And we had another stretch of 6 out of 7 (Apr '25 - Oct '24) in this stretch. And if the rest of July fails, we add another below 2" month to these stats. WTF happened in May '25 and Aug '24?? What a ridiculous anomoly. 37% of our total rain the past 25 months fell in those two months. Without that, this place would be uninhabitable.

I'm just saying... in the last 3 Winter's it's come within +0.25 of actual DJFM NAO each time. That can range from +2 to -2 so that's pretty good. It's hard to tell exact number this year because what I based it on, NCAR, has been discontinued, but based on TT dailies, it is negative right now.

Mmm I'm not sure those can be parsed out like that... "Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite " I would still proceed with interpretive caution. Look at it this way ... if the cold blob,due to AMOC flux variance is making that NF region "prone" to a colder expression, then a comparative failure in the index correlation is happening...because the former would mean that less forcing is causing the expression to take place. In short ... misleading a circulation mode that isn't so. That kind of shit is making the CC attribution seriously f with these mass field aspect. man As far as the cold blob itself ... -NAO and +NAO are taking place more independent because the atmospheric indexes are being driven by a set of forcing, vs the AMOC --> cold blob emerging because of changes in the AMOC. Again...use with caution.

We have a long "plateau" here, and since our averages are "live" (every daily entry affects them), the numbers here are as of today. Our daily mean warms above 65 on July 1 (June's warmth added a full week of 65+) and that lasts thru August 10. Today's average is 66.04, the only day (currently) above 66, so it's all downhill from here. Given the short/mid forecasts, I think this summer will end without any 66+. Last night's 0.49" brought the month to 1.94". Average thru 7/22 is 2.82". Might cut the deficit a bit if the storms hit us this afternoon, but not much chance for 0.88" and it's dry for the next 4-5 days.