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The little bit of SER tends to lead me to believe that DC to New England is favored with some CAD potential for the carolinas

That progression would at least tend to help us based on the opinion of many mets. I did not see Don's post. However, I read here it was using some of the forecast data from the ECMWF weeklies which I do not trust. They can be wrong, and the last two winters when bullish on cold and snow were terrible. So I feel them showing increased warmth can be incorrect as well. JMHO.

So I guess we have our first definitive threat period Dec. 2-3. All mid-range modeling indicating at least the threat of a wintry storm. Still highly variable setup so I'll try to keep my enthusiasm in check. Of note, the GEFS have backed off the past few runs but that brings us closer to a model consensus.

at least u got derecho'd

We Trammell Starks Screen Recording 2025-11-25 132714.mp4

At least they won. That first half was beyond brutal, i was regretting staying up. Tonight will unfortunately probably be a nightmare.

If realized, that would probably leave it's Mark against a possible hostile otherwise Pattern that Don sees. Interesting Times ahead.

Amazingly, the 12z Euro has a very similar solution to the 12z GFS. And the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the area with cold throughout its 360 hour run. I think it is safe to say that modeling is "seeing" the MJO rotation now through cold phases. I am just going to have to file this one away for safe keeping. I bet if I go back through the threads, I can find a similar scenario where the MJO wasn't recognized until the "last moment." Usually, modeling(as noted the other day) will try to sustain cold while in the warm phases of the MJO. Then, at the last minute, models flip warm. I think we have seen this one, except in reverse. Now, I do think we see some warm-ups. These are deep troughs and steep ridges. That is going to move a lot of cold air and warm air into places which don't see things like that often. There is a mechanism to transport subtropical air to the Arctic Circle and a mechanism to transport Arctic air into the subtropics. During La Nina, especially early in the season before long range patterns flatten into more stable waves for winter, these wild patterns are possible. I would suspect that we see this wild pattern persist through much of December. I would definitely think an anafront is on the table. We have seen several of those recently, and the cold that is present on modeling would certainly allow for one.

QPF erosion is real. This year has seen several rain events fizzle at the finish line.

Euro is frigid going forward. What a change.

Typical

Looking like the so called 'torch' is done. Honestly I enjoy watching folks hang their hat on the model runs and buying the "warmanistas" endless chatter. Great snow making weather ahead for Cataloochee and they liking resume operations Thanksgiving Day. All the talk of the dreaded SE Ridge appears to be waning. It looks like chilly weather with the possibility of wintry mischief early next week. My point and click now has lows of 17 Friday and Saturday mornings. Happy Thanksgiving Mountain folk!

Would be pretty cool for MLI to blow past last year's whole season total (8.2") with this storm. Would also be the 1st measurable snow of this new season as well lol.

After last winters lack of snow in my part of Chicago (Far NW burbs), I'm not getting hopes up. Our last seasons best shot of snow went from 6-8 inches to a dusting within 9-12 hours between "jackpot model run" and "reality". Are patterns really changing that much or do we just have more "data points" (that don't need to be real data points they could be model hallucinations or just model gunk) that it *seems* like things are changing?

I needed therapy after that one. Now I think people learned to suffer in silence. However, 7 days out is better than 10.

you will get rain. no need to track anything

In name only. And nobody knows where he comes up with his thoughts..?

I come back to the forum every winter to track winter storms that go north with every run. We've never been so fucking back

Looking better, and hopefully other data in the next week will point to the MJO getting into phase 8 at a lower amplitude, and then enter phase 1.

Honesty is fine…it’s what we want. BS needs to be eliminated.

Euro has a second light event next weekend and then JB’s vodka rolls into town

It must be admitted that next week's torch seems to be becoming muted as it enters the medium range. Here's hoping it continues.

Interestingly, the 12z EPS mean is coming in a bit higher for Chicago than the 6z run.