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This forecast is significantly warmer than the forecast for 23-24 was. That forecast was much too cool for what verified. I kept the same scale and we can how much warmer the actual winter was than the forecast. In ° F which turned out to be the warmest winter on record for the CONUS.

Beer ?

The Penguins SUCK.

Yup wind has been cranking for a couple of hours. 61.8/38

I'm ecstatic, back to my pool i go.

FWIW absolutely nothing I’m sure but WCVB mentioned that disturbed area in the Gulf might factor into our forecast when/if it emerges off of Florida next week

He is retired, he has plenty of free time. Thank you @Weather Will for giving all your free time to this board.

I haven’t noticed those things.

App State has a home game on Saturday, so this threat has legs.

Ripping 40-45 mph gusts this afternoon. Leaf blizzards and sticks and limbs coming down

Yep. It's gorgeous outside. Anyway, the only thing that matters now is to maintain the +NAO thru October and hope that turns into a - NAO for winter. And fwiw, 12z runs of both the Gefs and Geps do just that solidly +NAO today thru the end of their runs (ending 10/21.)

The number of hickory tussock moth caterpillars this year is astounding. But I will take them any day over the lantern fly nonsense

NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu

No. We must be sullen on an Internet weather board, or else how we will be able to live with ourselves? The misery must be shared!

Holy cow, guys. Let’s enjoy today.

It’s a really good question. The very end of the CFS run next June continues the Nino in 3 and 1+2 due to the WWBs shifting the warm pool east. We can also see the model showing a significant subsurface warm pool in the EPAC at the end of the run. Plus the current CFS is much too cool for its initialization of 1+2 this week. So its forecasts are already too weak. We are in uncharted territory with how extreme the warming is becoming with this El Niño. So we really don’t have any similar analogs to draw from. All we can say is that 82-83 was a significantly weaker event and managed to linger into early July in the Nino 1+2 regions. There has never been a +30C warm pool pushed this far to the east in the Pacific before. So we don’t really know for sure how quickly the record WWBs will relax heading into next June. All the models keep the WWBs going until the end of their runs next June. But it’s interesting that they are all saying the same thing including the recent extended Euro runs. These models aren’t really designed to see much past the spring forecast barrier and we are still only in the fall. Plus there isn’t any data on events this strong and how they might influence the pattern once we get past the spring.

Murphy is alive and active.

Shouldn't have opened my fat mouth. I hate Mondays.

Ha, right. It must be getting cold upstairs because we’ve seen more frozen cores in this. Summits are in the 30s now. The old low 50s but with dry low levels… gets real gusty, then rain before 90 seconds of frozen and back to rain before ending.

We LOVE to see it.

The temperatures are certainly way above normal - but the more amazing part has been the water temperature. I was in the water for an hour yesterday, with ocean temps off the pier here just south of SBA at 74.

Now that there’s an invest we will get hurricane models this evening. Overall there’s been a significant uptick overall regarding strength on modeling today tho the AI models are definitely cooking this thing up more than the rest. Despite the overall increase from modeling, intensity ranges for this still include a very sheared lopsided weak system (see Euro). Google seems to really want to develop and move this NE quick which might be out ahead of the modeled shear later in the weekend. That might be a specific trend to watch in terms or timing possibly affecting intensity