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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where are you getting -PNA from? I agree the polar domain will be crucial.
  3. GaWx
    SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 352 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2026 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN BY VARIOUS QUALITY CONTROLLED OBSERVATIONS SYSTEMS FROM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. *************MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX (113F AND ABOVE)************* LOCATION MAXIMUM TIME/DATE COMMENTS HT INDEX MEASURED (DEG F) SOUTH CAROLINA ..BEAUFORT COUNTY BEAUFORT MCAS 114.0 256 PM 7/08 ASOS ..BERKELEY COUNTY HUGER 114.0 114 PM 7/08 MESONET WITHERBEE 113.0 1215 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL ..CHARLESTON COUNTY AWENDAW/WAMBW 116.0 147 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL CHARLESTON INTL ARPT 114.0 308 PM 7/08 ASOS CHARLESTON EXE ARPT 113.0 1255 PM 7/08 AWOS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON 113.0 200 PM 7/08 OFFICIAL NWS OB. ..COLLETON COUNTY BENNETTS POINT 113.0 1200 PM 7/08 OTHER FEDERAL
  4. Typhoon Tip
    Well, I can tell you that would be in a destructive interference with El Niño, a +EPO/-PNA Not just correlation, but that’s actually demonstrated in a physical heat source and sink relationship with subsequent pattern forcing over the course of the northern hemisphere winter. I think the whole thing’s just entertaining as all get out… NOAA has a high probability now for a very strong warm ENSO event I guess they reserve the superlatives. But that’s happening on top of a recent global climate acceleration that we’re still probably going thru based upon simple observation of the empirical temperature channels It seems to me on a basic arithmetic and very clear and easy intuitive level… Those gotta be some kind of pretty fantastic polar anomalies is going on or the former two factors working in constructive interference is going to massively massively disappoint the winter enthusiasts.
  5. Maggie Valley Steve
    No rain today, but it was a little drier and a bit cooler. My high temperature was 82. Storms are still firing along the Tennessee border so maybe a nighttime shower is ahead.
  6. SEwakenosnowforu
    Man...radar looked like James City got slammed! Heard food lion there without power during storm! (Near bridge)
  7. Jebman
    Okay I love severe hurricanes with all my heart! YOU GUYS GOTTA SEE THIS! RAW FOOTAGE: LANDFALL OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MICHAEL - MEXICO BEACH, FL This is some of the best Michael footage I have ever seen! Especially from 2:45:00 !
  8. SEwakenosnowforu
    Lots of lightning...power went out...BUT...not much rain. Definitely enough for the grass to be happy. Under 0.25. SW WAKE cashed in!
  9. Damage In Tolland
    Possible little or no rain next two weeks . What we all had this week was good . It will evaporate quickly. We’ll see how it plays out. This is acting opposite of typical super Nino summer with above normal and dry
  10. HIPPYVALLEY
    Looks warm and boring for the foreseeable future.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO/-WPO is usually tough to come by in super El Niño events.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, I’ll give it a read
  13. Typhoon Tip
    Regard to these linear correlations… That’s backward incompatible then? Seems that way Descending solar would cancel out the very things the El Niño is positively correlated with…. Obviously not the absolute sense. Just sayn’ You only need two big blizzards to make a winner out of winter
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, check out my update from last month.....really hits on what you are eluding to. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/06/forecast-intense-el-nino-potential.html I think we are going to maintain about. a.5 delta between the ONI and RONI, which would continue to denote some MC competition with El Niño.....less so than 2023, but perhaps similar if not more than 2015. Guidance tries to push back against that idea, but I'll believe it when I see it....they have done a very poor job with that throughout the past decade, usually erroneously modding in favor of stock ENSO.
  15. high risk
    Some signal in guidance for a few late night / early morning cells, with higher chances to the east.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a strong -NAO signal from the North Atlantic would be a real feather in the cap of the 1957, 1965. 1986 camps....even 2009.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, I should’ve said that ”in relation to the models” I am aware of the climate timing. I just am wondering what it means when the background state of the planetary oceans being so warm to begin with - this represents certain challenges … perhaps even for the Relative ONI ( I haven’t been paying much attention to this thread and very busy so apologies if this has been dragged through the coals already)
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some of the modeling may have rushed it a bit, but this El Niño is still ahead of any other on record.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be an interesting forecast for the polar domain this season....on the one hand, it looks pretty definitive that we at least aren't headed towards a strongly +NAO per the N ATL formula, which would be huge because that is game-over in an El Niño of this magnitude. On the other hand, we are now into the portion of the solar cycle that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. Descending solar 2-4 years removed from solar max is strongly supportive of +NAO as geomag peaks given the lag from solar flux. That said, my early solar analogs are not devoid of blocking, so my hunch continues to be some fun and games during the second half after a tepid first half. The key to increased confidence would be getting a -WPO (neutralish) signal, a la 1982...more on that later this season. I will of course draft all of this out complete with visuals to elucidate my thoughts in vivid detail later this fall. If we can avoid a strongly +NAO/WPO, then we should be okay.
  20. Typhoon Tip
    Where do things stand now, relative to predictions? ahead behind on time
  21. eyewall
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just looked back at that section of my publication from last fall. I think if we hold it for another month, we should be good.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....Boxing Day was very frustrating...it was an occluded, shredded mess....great banding was back in the tri- state area.
  26. yotaman
    Ended the day with .78".
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