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Baja low is being bullied right now but the tables will turn later on. .

That would be convective storms falling into freezing temps in the Carolinas. Good luck to our friends on the other side of the Apps. We had better hope the eastern Valley doesn't hold on to below freezing temps. One thing of note(and so I don't have to post another post...this part isn't for you, Holston), when downslope winds come out of the SE, there is sometimes a weird but plausible phenomena which occurs. The cold air gets pushed westward(away from the Smokies and Apps spine) and up against the Plateau on the west side of the eastern valley. It sometimes takes longer for the west side of the TN River (foothills of the Plateau) to get above freezing. That has happened IMBY several times. In fact, I have seen JC in the mid to upper 40s while I am in the low 30s. It is not super long in terms of duration, but interesting to watch.

One day, somehow one good model run will verify

That warm nose is starting to concern me. It's prone to change to sleet here earlier than further west and stay crystally as that IVT they mention in the discussion gets it's act together.

WGAL got it right…

Euro ticked S 6z run. The NAM had changeover sooner, but it’s the NAM.

Said the same, exact thing to myself last night, as I sat naked at the dinning room table gathering my thoughts after the fam was in bed.

This one may not be to hard map actually, You can do a broad brush on the bulk of it.

Maybe conceivably impact south of about I 84 even...but I think pike is safe.

I’m not gonna talk bad about him, I don’t know him and I’m sure he’s a good guy but it feels like he gloats in our misery at times. What I’m doing is bad for the board and this is the last time I’m touching this subject. It’s not worth getting ran off. .

Interesting to see what the EPS mean shows

Yeah, I was living on Gaskins Road for 1994 ice storm. Treacherous event but short in duration. My car skidded home that night and I could not make it up the hill next day to mar my shift and Ukrop’s Fresh Express. It melted pretty quick. So not like this one is projected. 1999 Super Bowl storm was more damaging and impactful, hope we don’t do that type of event.

Watches from the SW to NE instead of from the NW to SE? WOW must be southern stream system instead of northern dry system! lol

@HIPPYVALLEY Watches coming this pm region wide. 100%. OKX almost put them up this morning but they stopped at the PHI CWA. And based on how much they love the NBM im guessing numbers are going to pretty high. Considered hoisting a Winter Storm Watch regionwide with this update, though after collaboration with neighboring offices, decided to hold off with this package given the onset of the event is still around 72 hours out, and changes to the forecast this far out are likely. That said, confidence has only increased in an impactful winter storm to produce a significant snowfall to the region on Sunday, lingering into at least Sunday night.

Euro trended colder at 6z but that’s all I’ve really looked at.

May ask him to loan it to me for First Call if the kids are off the rails tonight.

Total QPF is 1.1 and total snow at 10:1 (with sleet) is 7.7 - NYC

To me the cold is dumping increasingly in the central conus and much less so in the east. The -AO is legit. That will also give fuel to the primary to hold on longer “bend back” than latest guidance.

As much as some won't like this, I agree, GFS right now is on the southern flank.

At least we have something to root for this weekend. The Bills are in a lot of trouble, thats for sure.

I’d say the 6Zs more than held serve!

I saw arctic sand at ozzfest in 1998, they sucked

For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain? Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet?

Agreed. Cape/islands and south coast, sure.