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00z NAM looking juiced

December! TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 -1.0 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 15" 20" 25" 30" 45" 85" 50" 5" 95"

Look at how much colder H5 on the Euro Weeklies is compared to yesterday’s: that’s a big change for a 30 day period! Yesterday’s: Today’s:

Throw caution to the wind!

Pretty miserable from 3 on with misery mist 55⁰

Congratulations Jeff. I can't figure out how Tennessee blew that game ahead by 12 and with Kansas having half your team out with fouls and injuries but they managed it.

Temps in low 60s made it nice to hang the lights outside. One good thing about it anyways.

I believe it. I'm glad there aren't any leaves on the trees anymore.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

snow weenie amounts of 4-6+inches of snow and or .25 inch of ice for 2-3 runs with DR No and the GFS also agreeing and within 3 days of the event will usually get a good one started in this forum. We are a long way from that now. LOL Last year, it only took winter weather advisory level events to kick one up - we are so snow starved and have been spanked and run down the beaten path with a bunch of events that tuned out to be absolutely jack. This forum is pretty much gun shy for starting storm threads by having been burned so much the last 5 years with pity storms. In the MA forum, you will roasted over the coals for jinxing their forum by starting one. LMAO

They got the snow guns going at Wisp!

This one is like watching porn... https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-14-15

6 days is never close enough, lol But I feel like we can at least say we may see our first flakes of the season All else is fantasy for now.

Several gusts near 40 mph from Garrett County east through the immediate DC/Baltimore suburbs.

Yeah and getting +10 before Dec 20 is almost impossible.

Ah geez power going in and out now. I'm glad I had all the lines on my property run underground so it's not my fault.

The pattern evolution for the opening 10 days of December still looks very good. With respect to the December 11-25 period, the guidance has shifted. For a time, the GEFS was showing the development of a pronounced AO+ pattern. Now, it has backed off (12z and 18z cycles). As a consequence, the baseline Scenario 1 still seems to be the best one going forward, while recognizing that there is some risk of a break near mid-month. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast largely maintains the sensible weather effects from Scenario 1. Given the shifting of the guidance, it makes sense to continue to monitor the teleconnections (and other factors) while reserving judgment for changes until later to avoid making changes based more on model noise than actual developments. Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto remain in line for a snowstorm during the November 29-30 period. Significant snow is possible in Milwaukee and Chicago. A moderate snowfall looks reasonable for both Detroit and Toronto. Changes can still occur. WPC is now showing a 70% chance of a moderate winter storm impact in Chicago and surrounding areas for the 24-hour period ending November 30 7 am. Chicago remains on course to experience its snowiest fall since 2019 (8.3") and possibly even 2018 (12.7"). Milwaukee should see its snowiest fall since 2019 (13.4"). Detroit will likely experience its snowiest fall since 2021 (7.1") and possibly 2019 (9.5"). Toronto could see its snowiest fall since 2020 (23.4 cm/9.2") and perhaps 2002 (27.2 cm/10.7"). Fall 2025 Snowfall Totals (through November 26): Chicago: 1.7" Detroit: 2.2" Milwaukee: 0.6" Toronto: 12.8 cm (5.0")

Gale like winds on top of meadow mountain. 30F with occasional light snow right now. Wood stove going on blast.

Totally agree. I’m proceeding with extreme caution this winter but the pattern/setup looks very good at the moment for the first 1/3 of December at least.

One thing I have learned the last 15 years being with AmericanWx..... Ji doesn't sugar coat anything!!

There is a reduction from the 12z, but relative to the 6z and 0z, looks fairly similar

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

42 mph here