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  2. Here comes the humidity. It was comfortable here 2 hours ago…not so much now. Hopefully we get some rain later to cool us down. This will be my last full week in the Lehigh Valley for awhile - possibly ever? I’m moving to Denver in a week and a half because it’s somewhere I’ve always wanted to live and I’m now in a position to give it a try. It gets hot out there sometimes but it’s a dry heat. “Humid” there is a DP of 60. It’s going to be quite the adjustment but I’m looking forward to living in a place with such volatile weather.
  3. I did a sea level search for my particular location and it was 33 feet above. Now I understand why the surge simulation oh a category 4/5 hurricane direct hit would get the water as close as one block to my west. I keep thinking of the ice melt sea rise effect on infrastructure. The sewers systems waste water erupting, transit system, power grid, treatment plants. Perhaps the effort to protect home in order to stay may be beyond the financial, if not technical ability for that near future time to accomplish. When the next iteration of the grapes of wrath is being written by one of our dependents on an interplanetary resettlement ship, ……… some may still close their eyes and remember the sound of the waves and the aroma of the ocean gently kissing the shore. Stay well, Liberty, as always ….
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  5. From 8/3 thru 8/5–am received imby/Columbia 1.70”.
  6. When the dewpoint reaches 75 that's the point I wish I could just teleport home, and not have to sweat through all my clothes.
  7. yeah everything is a mess here-swimming pools, mulch washed out-golf courses all wet. Been a nightmare month in that regard. Do like my lawn looking something out of Ireland
  8. Unfortunately. Dont want more of that. Finally balanced the chemicals in the pool and got it clear again from those torrential rains a few days ago
  9. dropping some torrential rains near Philly
  10. My office's 5k Fun Run - Race for the Cure - is at Overpeck Park at 6pm. 170 people. What could go wrong!?
  11. -SOI is up to 87 straight days. Record is 1998’s 100 days. I don’t know if it will make it to 100. -1015+ Darwin streak ended at 26 days, breaking old record back to 1991 of 20 days
  12. I bet you could make it rain by waving that trash can lid around. 84/76 here
  13. If that holds I might get some decent rains in like an hour or so.
  14. For example, there is some question whether it makes sense to provide a tornado warning within a QLCS especially when some of those tornadoes are of the same intensity of winds in a bowing segment. I don’t think we are going to see any changes, though.
  15. .67” here in Greenspring Valley
  16. Today
  17. I’m actually not dismissing them anymore. I dismissed the CANSIPs early on because it derived the colder look from Modoki SSTAs in the tropical pacific, and Modoki isn’t happening so I tossed it. But the Euro looks better now *despite being even stronger and more east based*, so now we have to wonder if the a strongly suppressed cell over the W Pacific (due to extreme E based nature) will help. It makes sense to me in theory.
  18. Its not just the Euro. The CANSIPS has been unwavering with a likely too-cold look. And the CFS with its daily changes hasnt gone bonkers with warmth either and has stayed hell bent on a cold most-of-the-country look in Feb-Mar (except the far north, which is a moot point for snow lovers that far north). Im not making ANY forecast, Im just saying its not April or May anymore. Its now August, and the same models that ARE showing a record strong El Nino ARE NOT showing a record warm winter. Nor are they getting warmer as we get closer. If it was the opposite and all models showed it unexpectedly warm, say historic warm (since we already expect a warm look in a strong nino)....the SAME people dismissing these models now would be analyzing them verbatim.
  19. All you have to do is look at the previous robust el ninos. There are only really 2 scenarios that make sense here: 1. carry over el nino, like 1987 2. backlash la nina, like 1972 and 1998. If the el nino wasn't going to be outlier strength, I would say 2 was a forgone conclusion. But the el nino might be so strong, the carry over solution cannot be ruled out. I don't know which scenario is going to happen, but it should become obvious by late spring/early summer. For example, by May/June 2010, anyone could see it was pretty clear that a strong la nina was forming.
  20. already the flood warnings are starting south of us - headed this way - expect a Flood Watch at some point the next few days IMO FFW from KPHI
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  22. How's today looking for storm around the nyc area?
  23. There’s nothing wrong with what Snowman posts. It’s just he posts tweets saying basically the same thing by different people multiple times a day and week. It’s a little obnoxious IMO.
  24. Last summer we had a lot of storms that were good hits .There was a bunch of good storms after that . Until mid Augdewst when summer ended
  25. For your area and mine its literally impossible. For a place like NYC or Philly its POSSIBLE but EXTREMELY unlikely. How winters like 1972-73 or 1997-98 happened are insane to even think about. Even in a terrible pattern, "bad luck" has to be involved too. A milder than avg winter is obviously the go-to choice. But in the end, the Nino will be historic, the winter will likely be supbar but not historic. The warmest winter on record for Detroit is 1881-82 with a mean temp 36.9F, which is +8.5F against the current average. The least snowy is 12.9" in 1936-37, which is -32.1" against the current average. In my lifetime theres never been a winter under 20". Raindance drew a map a bit back that had Detroit at +4F with 31" of snow. Thats honestly not a bad guess at all at this early stage imo.
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