All Activity

It makes you wonder prior to the satellite era and modern practices, season that were record quiet, like 1914 (one storm), It is highly likely there were some others just like we have seen this season so far. Short-lived, weak TSs that we simply did not have capability of detecting them well or at all way back. But it does not really impact the climo, at least when you go by ACE. 10 weak, short-lived TSs don't even come close to a single, long-tracked, intense Cabo Verde hurricane for total ACE!

Having an exceptional pattern the other way (i.e. very inactive) is of high value b/c it allows us to see the absolute extremes at the other end and what goes on literally that causes it. Sure, we know very strong El Nino does this to the Atlantic, but not every very strong El Nino is the same and we only have 4 other El Ninos since 1950 on this scale, so odds that when this El Nino is done, we will have witness patterns we have not seen before in the satellite age. Knowing what suppresses TCs I would argue is just as important as to what favors them. And 2024 and 2025 w/o El Nino, we had some previously unseen patterns that ripped the heart out of the peak climo part of the season and resulted in busted over-forecasts. Either it was unusually strong and persistent SALs/TUTTs or the ITCZ displaced unusually far N into the Sahara, and brought to light was the "Atlantic Nina" and its possible role!

Pretty soon you will be as well. The updated USDA climate zones from 2023 has 7b right on Weymouths doorstep.

Why not move to SC?

Clouds have taken over here but the other night with the eclipse it was pretty spectacular. Actually, every clear night is up here. Even with being near “downtown” the sky is incredibly dark and magnificent.

0Z UKMET: H at 168 strengthening on a slow WNW move in Gulf NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 78.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.09.2026 108 24.9N 79.9W 1008 30 0000UTC 04.09.2026 120 25.9N 82.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 04.09.2026 132 27.3N 84.2W 1001 38 0000UTC 05.09.2026 144 28.0N 86.2W 996 43 1200UTC 05.09.2026 156 28.4N 87.8W 989 61 0000UTC 06.09.2026 168 28.7N 88.9W 977 68

She's doing her best to hang on

Last 30 days, this year is head and shoulders above the rest of the super nino's. Quite an impressive look on the VP 200 charts now.

I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period

This will send you down a rabbit hole

Cyclosporiasis? Seriously, need something to mix it up...some tropical would be nice.

Pretty good WWB ongoing right now actually. This looks to be verifying a tick stronger than guidance had been showing. Another good one coming in a week to 10 days too it appears. No question El nino is in control of the tropics. MJO is MIA faced with this event. All el nino IMO. Maybe some hint of it increasing influence into the north pacific during Sept on the AIFS-Ens now. But we'll have to see how that goes and how that verifies.