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Don't you have a place in Cape May? Are you considering going down? They could have legit blizzard conditions.

There have been 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC. The 10 day periods and how many occurred during each period are listed below. Quite a drop-off after Feb 18th. No. 10 Day Period 1 Nov 21-30 1 Dec 1-10 5 Dec 11-20 7 Dec 21-30 3 Dec 31-Jan 9 3 Jan 10-Jan 19 11 Jan 20- Jan 29 10 Jan 30-Feb 8 12 Feb 9-Feb 18 4 Feb 19-Feb 28 4 Feb 29-Mar 10 4 Mar 11-Mar 20 1 Mar 21-Mar 30 1 Mar 31- Apr 9 1 Apr 10- Apr 19 68 Total

If i had to venture a guess including areas like SE Pennsylvania, Watches will go up either around 12pm or the 4pm update. It is warranted at this point and can always be downgraded especially in the SE PA regions.

The NAM twins are decent for the I-81 crew. 3k gets precip in before dawn, which would be great for laying down a base. 12k holds off until 10 a.m. Both seem to have the inverted trof out this way. Even a bit west of my location, which I haven't seen on any model in a couple of days.

if you think 12z NAM 3k is a whiff, check out 13z HRRR! it shows 0" of snow through the end of the run!!!!!

Yeah maybe more like a hold. I’m looking at where the big totals are, not whether we went up or down a couple of inches. Seems that area shifted northeast from 6z.

Do not feel good hugging the NAM at all. 6z GFS is a total shut out for us down here

One more joining the 970s party just southeast of the benchmark

That's 6z?

Yeah this was a good soaking. Much needed to clear off the salt from my car and the roads. Pack by me took a beating though, pretty much gone besides shaded areas and piles.

Not yet

I feel bad for the ponies on Assateague

Nah IMO with the temp profiles and this thing looking very coastal (I don't think we get the tilt early enough to bring it too far west of I-95) I think this is more of an advisory event for us unfortunately. Criteria for LWX is 5" - then again a watch means it only needs to be "possible" so...

That's great news! Means you can't go to Houston!

We will miss you, although I bet you'll get more snow now! lol also, holy NAM Batman lol.

He was lagging behind on panels apparently ha ha.

ALTHOUGH margaritas may be pretty good Houston. Plus Lucy has always gotten the best of us for too many years. Toss up IMO.

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!

Yeah this. I was gonna say, whoah nelly. The last frame of the 3k looks like this... more to come.

45" at 10:1 for ocean city lmao

The Raleigh wiff for D.C.

I kept track of QPF out put from all models for several days before the storm for MBY HKY. 2-3 days out GFS output ranged in the .65"-.8" range and GEFS was consistently around the .5"-.55" range. The Euro was consistently around the .35-.45" range and the EPS was around .45" -.5" range. We wound up receiving about .52-.54" of precip. Both AI models nailed the .7-.8" totals near and around CLT to Salisbury. I think general rule of thumb you stick with ensembles and blend those together and you will get a pretty accurate look at what's going to happen starting in the next 12 to 24 hours.

watches by this afternoon for some areas