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If climate change keeps accelerating, DC winters will start to look like winters in Columbia, SC. IMO we might have one more snowy period when the next +PDO phase occurs—just because of the warmer waters (and hence increased precip) it'll probably break tons of records, maybe there'll be a 3' historic blizzard. Afterwards, though, around ~2040, I dunno, man.

I have a tough time seeing how the Euro ended so differently than 12z and 6z. It seems like it suddenly turned the 500mb energy east this run instead of digging it southwest. Look at the lead vortex over the Michigan UP instead of Wisconsin like 6z and 12z. This means it doesnt lower heights to the south of the second wave, possibly causing it to turn east also.

Lake won't be frozen over by then? I'm interested if my work and kids schedule don't interfere.

Yup, I forgot it’s all over & already failed, lol… Panic room is one thread over there…

As well as it did for the Eagles

Liking the lake effect potential locally next weekend.

I wonder how it will work out for them…

You don’t have to rub it in, we already down and hurtin lol

I am liking how the extended range is looking on current modeling. ~Jan 27th timeframe. Not real strong anomalies, but the placement of things looks good

Death knell for widespread snow

I often think how improved my quality of life would be if I wasn’t interested in sports and didn’t like snow.

Some here locked in the 18z Euro

my old neighborhood by Tara cafe

I don't agree. Keep the ridge tilted positively like that and the surface will underperform. This is why the dynamics and BZ are escaping east on those solutions.

This is common in Ninas, as most already know. A hard hobby tracking snow threats, especially in a Nina.

What matters is when it just quickly opens up and dissipates

Euro is just nothing for either wave now. I personally prefer mild weather to dry cold. If I'm paying large heating costs I at least want some snow.

@Ginx snewxGive me a ridge like the first and 3rd image, then H5 matters....second image is when it's more futile.

I'm so tired of the northern stream I'm ready to put tariffs on it

Yes and no. I mean winning it all last year kinda takes the sting off so if there is any silver lining. This team has become so predictable since Patullo became the OC. Not to mention the Eagles beating themselves week after week. Penalties, dropped balls, bad calls, missed kicks. All that firepower and such bad execution. Defense is what kept them in games. Every week it's been "hold your breath for 60 minutes and hope for the best". I'm not happy they lost but even Ray Charles could see it coming.

They’re talking about different setups than that. Even with cooperative temps the precip hits a brick wall somewhere in the 95 corridor.

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this.

Trigger Warning: I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Fornerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain.

I responded more aggressively than I wanted to but I think if you split the discussion into “pros” and “average joes” the discussion for the average joes will inevitably dry up. It doesn’t offer folks a chance to learn and improve. The mods would have to somehow decide how the “trusted non-Mets” can be verified. I don’t think it would work out and would be disappointed if it was implemented. Think giving folks flairs for being a meteorologist accomplishes what we need as far as filtering to our best and brightest.

Not a bad analog, but that harkens back to what I was saying about the western ridge....notice it looks more like the 18z GFS suite than it does some of those other runs that are positively tilted sw to ne. This is what I hate...see the difference? Notice 18z GEFS look more like 2/15/15 than this last image.