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Saved by the IVT.....lol

Doubt at your own peril.

I've been warning it would strengthen in mid December into February since early last fall. But as others have intimated, that by no. means January is a lost cause.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

Well not whiff but disorganized mess

Well, all I said was cold/BN without referring to snow. I think we all know it can still snow in an AN temps regime, just harder generally speaking. The fact is, however, we just went through a well BN period with most just squeaking out light total snowfall numbers save those in the central/southern VA locations. So "no", I didn't say we should punt anything. Simply that Europe is in line for BN temps on today's weeklies and that may rotate over the the Conus around the end of the month if history repeats as in the fall. The problem is Ralph, you were just dying to say that people are now punting January. My guess is, you were, in fact, the one thinking on punting January.

0z GFS is garbage.

Gfs is a whiff lol.

I expected some stretches like this during December, which pretty much worked out.

There's a wild temperature gradient across my area right now. I just came home from Knoxville, and dropped my friend and his wife off in Caryville, it was 57 at his house. It's 31 at my house. I live 10 miles NE of him.

Man, you go over my head with this stuff, but I do absolutely expect a very favorable Pacific to take shape by mid month.

You know the way that ridge bulges in the midwest like that and this thing comes down out of the northwest along the 540… starting as a zygote plume in N IL then strengthening E before diving southeast … it looks like an MCS in the summertime riding the thermodynamic gradient in this NAM solution

Surprisingly we didn't get the wind that was forecasted for our are.

My PWM plot is night and day from Mansfield in most regards, but I totally get the OCD part. I will go back and forth in my head about the depth during every wind-driven event. Hell, I'll even do it when measuring new snow. Talking myself in and out of literally tenths of an inch. At least you have other people to converse with. I come back in the house talking to myself and my family just looks at me funny.

Light precip

Yes

Christmas party?

I would assume it would have to be moving pretty quickly in order for accumulations to be that low ?

All models have shifted north. I like a dusting to an inch for NYC

Block this guy. I did last year, the only time I see his post is when someone quotes it. .

RRFS

What was the issue?

Pretty Standard La Nina looks like.

This look could be a lot worse.

I just love the sunset color at this time of year!!