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Doesn't really seem like a cool(er) look to me, outside of perhaps any post fropa but we probably go right back to above average
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I asked the same question awhile ago but was kindly lectured that it's all random...but I swear it sure feels like some areas are magnets. And living in the city...it does seem like the counties get severe better than we do. But I have no way of quantifying that...
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- 146 replies
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- we got burned
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2026 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
Nice downpour this afternoon in the Valley! -
EURO AI and CMC with a much cooler look after day 6..
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Starting to see signs of the "wetter" pattern around mid month. Ways to go so we'll see how it evolves but looking interesting based on some of mid to LR guidance. Could get quite steamy and soupy once to late week into next week. I like the fcst trof positioning over the GL/OV down the road. Perhaps a slow moving front draped over the east with some decent gulf moisture to work with? Details TBD.
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So so so dry. This is a top 1-2 drought in my lifetime for the Raleigh area. Yard is concrete and just dead besides where I have had time to spray it in mornings. The once a week irrigation rule was fine until it got this hot
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Sunny and 78 degrees with a dewpoint of 43 here right now. This is a top 10 day of the year.
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Because I used to live in Glen Burnie; I left a rain magnet there for my family. I took the Prince Frederick one though, so those people down there are all screwed.
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Agreed, has to be 105+ at EWR at this point for CPK to have a shot at 100. .
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And yeah a deep trough to our west would be a recipe for potential action for sure!
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77 degree dews again today with scattered showers in the vicinity. Temps in the mid 80s.
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On the visible satellite loop it looks like the remnant low of a tropical depression is lifting northward through eastern Iowa. The rain bands are very efficient. I got another 1.79" of rain overnight through this morning. The defo zone/pivot point of the meso low passed just west of me and produced a band of 3-4" of rain across that area. There was no thunder this morning, just tropical-style heavy rain. After getting only 1.90" of rain in May, I have already received 3.23" in the first week of June. The soil has been thoroughly replenished and the garden is thriving.
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It won't..at least not in the city
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Now the SPC has put out an outlook that wouldn't have been possible before this year: 15% double-hatched hail outlook for eastern Colorado. I would expect a severe thunderstorm watch in Denver. I'm sure last week's storm was a bit of a shock for lots of people... quick 15% outlook, and everybody gets hail all in one day.
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The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads.
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Let's lock in the GFS after day 6
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Not a cloud in the sky and hot AF here. I see i went from 70% chance last night of rain Wed to now 60% and a degree got tacked onto both Thur and Fri high temps. Things never change out here.
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Just finished my car. It had over a week of dust from the foundation waterproofer redoing our front yard. I don't even recognize my car now.
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NAM is really aggressive with an expansive EML advecting into the region. GFS not so much. A little nervous on this because the NAM tends to overdo these, however, you throw an EML in Thursday with a shortwave trough moving through and there will be some severe storms. Lots of details to iron out these next few days!
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
high risk replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week. Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many. The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe. I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.- 438 replies
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Detailed Forecast This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 79. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 54. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. -
Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Stein https://x.com/nwsnerfc/status/2064022127834026337?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg -
Says the guy mainlining digital blue...
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Roadtrip to Binghamton?
