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I hope this system misses us. Our infrastructure cannot handle another beat down like last night's.
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Being pretty sure or confident on any long term weather pattern is an oxymoron. Knowing how complex these things are, statements like these serve no purpose and are not productive.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Absolutely correct! I'm often as much as 5 or so degrees different than MDT. -
NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this
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Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
SouthCoastMA replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Euro is definitely the most meh of models. It also hasn't exactly inspired confidence in the day 3-4 range. Lets see if the meso's start ticking more aggressive with the OE stuff as we get closer. The INVT trough is a crapshoot -
WxUSAF's weak ass frontal passage thing.
EastCoast NPZ replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Did anyone anywhere get anything from this POS system? -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My station is consistent with all of them around me. I believe it's just about 100% accurate. When I made my post, the Airpark down the road was 31. MDT has been consistently running lower than me for a couple of months now. Edit: Every station to my east is in the low to mid 30s. Every station between me and MDT is in the 28-31 range. Interesting. Still say my station is accurate. -
Maybe a few more times.
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Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
Sey-Mour Snow replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Interesting timing difference.. GFS/NAM vs EURO .. EURO slowly bleeds the cold in Saturday afternoon.. NAM/GFS are much more of a "whoosh" with NAM showing an 18 degree in one hour temp drop around daybreak here.. ICON/Canadian more in line with the EURO, so it's American guidance vs foreign. -
Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Squalls are very hit and miss. I’m not a fan of broad 2”+ amounts when there isn’t a broad precip shield. Sure, someone may get that, but good luck pinpointing where squalls will focus -
Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Looks like 2”, maybe 3? -
Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026
Maggie Valley Steve replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
Exactly how many times are going to post the same exact thing Jeremy? It gets tiresome. -
denver is ugly but most of new america is
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@40/70 Benchmark Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data
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Rgem insists on only a quarter inch
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Can you explain the difference between a SWFE set up versus Miller B? I know there might be some overlap, but is it a Midwest originating low redeveloping off the coast in Miller B verses south westerly originating LP that then may or may not redevelop off the coast in SWFE? Anything on the 500mb to look for difference-wise?
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Predict the cold contest (for Feb 7-9)
Stormlover74 replied to Roger Smith's topic in New York City Metro
Max 19 Min 7 Snow .4 -
I know. I texted you the exact same thoughts a few days ago. You must have not seen it. It's unbelievable! Even in bad winters we get 10 inches alone from nickel and dime events. 2011/2012, 2012/2013 are a couple examples with plenty small events. I do believe we get 1 or 2 more moderate events but the lack of more frequent lighter snows will probably be the deciding factor in getting to average.
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO. -
Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
CoastalWx replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Wow you never told us you moved! -
Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event
Ginx snewx replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
Iconic slams the whole Arctic in here -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
NAM gives the area 3-4 inches but still 48 hours away. -
Predict the cold contest (for Feb 7-9)
dmillz25 replied to Roger Smith's topic in New York City Metro
Max- 19 Min- 5 Snow-0.7” -
Flurries brightwaters 31
