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Wtf are they smoking?

You’re ahead, bring it home

Heard a rumble of thunder early this morning. Now, as the great Sophie B. Hawkins once said “It feels like spring time on this February morning.”

GFS looks good through 87

Light snow over the area at 99 where there was none at 6z

I was never excited about this threat. To me, it always looked like a late blooming Miller B/Inverted trough which is never good for us.

GFS AI AIGFS total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24

What will the GFS do?

This seems like 2-4” to ice south of 90

Well, GFS looks a good bit better than 6z so far...but still don't think it's going to do what we need

Meh...AiGfs finally got the memo with the weak inverted trough.

We take gfs and reggie.

I know everyone is chasing weekend snow, but I'm not mad at the rain totals the gfs has leading up during the next few days.

GFS still snowy NOP. Let’s see how we can F this up in the next 24hrs

luckly for them it's still far enough out they don't need to have a nailed down perfect forcast YET...there is time for this to resolve. But if it ends up an inverted trough being ignited by a last second developing coastal lol...got help them...that's a nowcast situation and someone always ends up getting dumped in those but good luck predicting where...it's like trying to nail down the exact location of a thunderstorm ahead of time.

Lol

assuming they look the same at 84, they usually do, but past 60 sometimes they diverge a little

I’ll give it about 20% chance of an inch or two here

genetics

‘Tis Look at how much better heights are backed ahead of the ULL over the EC We can work with that look. The previous runs required major surgery to fix, this one more like an outpatient procedure Still work, but not as bad

It wouldn't prove you wrong...this storm could be that fluke outlier...or maybe the pattern is about to flip...but there was a very clear storm track pattern from Mid December up until now. That isn't your imagination.

GFS AI AIGFS

Man I do not envy forecasters dealing with a look like the GFS has at ~48 hours. Four vorts just whirling in and around the CONUS. Should give anyone discounting the threat (or hyping it) pause

I guess we'll see what the RGEM would've been in the CMC shortly.