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GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though.

DVN just upgraded my area to a winter storm warning and 5-7". I'm not expecting 7, but 5 would be nice.

still targeting a mid January full leaf drop. The Oaks laugh at single-digit temperatures. The tops are mostly gone now. .

I didn’t get out of bed in time to measure the official 9” total IMBY with that last storm. It was already down to 7” by the following afternoon. It’s around 5.5” now but high water content with a layer of freezing drizzle and dense sloppy on top.

Hopefully that trend continues because there is potential there.

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday

Nice to see more ridging build out west in time. Maybe we can get one of these shortwaves to dig and deliver.

Here is the average(lows and highs) for December through the 4th. I will go back up and post the map(with the reference years above...give me a sec to edit that one)... 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2024(almost the same start) are very similar or colder to 2025. But that is about it.

Not with the upcoming pattern coming up. It should amplify more as we move into December.

It is honestly obscene. Was in a mall parking lot last night and i t was LOADED with rock salt. Almost could not see pavement though it.

I thought T-Blizz was joking about that. It’s bright blue skies in Greenfield right now.

Since 1980, the only month I can find w/ a faster(low max temp) start is 1985. Here is the Dec 1-4 data for 2025. These are the max temp departures. As Boone noted, overnight departures are not as strong. I have to think that is due to a lot of fog and cloud cover. I'll update w/ more recent numbers when this updates again. ***updated w/ reference maps of max AND low temp compositees***

One benefit to living in one of the worst snowfall areas in the region is that I was able to test my new bike (Trek FX2). Needed something different for pavement. Chilly out, but not that cold.

Let’s do it

I don't understand why this is the new trend. We got 1 inch of snow on Tuesday and the roads look like the middle of February after a blizzard.

Long Range HRRR for Monday

Those winds will put the 4x more I needed to pay for property insurance at the new Pit to the test.

We are so close, it’s easy to see. Right now, we’re getting the red track with these shortwaves, which continues to favor a lack of digging and marginal weak events into the mid-Atlantic. Nudge that trough west so it’s centered over the lakes and we’ll be ready for takeoff. It wouldn’t take much to trend that direction - it’s really a small tweak at range. Pumping that ridge out west would be helpful too but we can’t have everything. .

With the potential or much colder temps this month, and a tendency not to soar way AN....we could be looking at a top 10 cold month for TRI. I'll have to go check and see...but that is off the top of my head. 7 day ensembles for mid month are -10 to 15F BN

Yes, this is very reminiscent of the winter weather pattern we had last January and last February, which mainly has suppressed storms that targeted the southern US and areas of the lower Midwest, while most of the rest of the country was cold and dry. With this next push of arctic air there simply isn’t enough of a southern stream to coincide with the arctic air and produce much meaningful snow. Instead, we are stuck with the winter pattern from last year, which is dry, cold, and any snow is usually suppressed.

As I live and breathe, I did not buy into this post. Woke up to about 0.1" of the white stuff.

It is very early, but has a "wasting cold air" type feel to this pattern.

The sky looks like snow in Raleigh today but of course nothing is falling.

We are -8 for the month, but normally you arrive there by being -16 and then normal over short periods. This has been essentially-7 to -10 each day, so nothing super cold.

I am just now catching up on overnight and afternoon modeling, so please forgive me if I am on stepping in old footprints. These are the real feel temps for the mid-month cold front. The GFS I "think" had this on d16 of its run a few days ago. It is now well within d10. The 12z EPS is the colder of all the ensembles, and that gets my attention w/ its usual warm bias. Some deterministic models don't get us above 20 degrees. This reminds me of the 09-10 setup. It got cold right as school let out - as in the very day school was dismissed for Christmas. Cars were stranded in a pretty good commuter snow storm. This could be an 83-84 deal where it gets cold and doesn't snow. I fully see that. However, I see the Euro cranking a big storm high around this time frame. Often, we will see cold temps and big snows coupled. These temps are pretty much on bare ground. The GFS gets TRI below zero(in some places) with actual temps. The thing that concerns me a bit is that the GFS has the warmest MJO!!! If it is just now catching on(and it has a habit of seeing cold shots before other models at range during December), then look out. Still time for things to change, but a big shot of cold air is growing likely but not certain. Once we get to day 6-7, I think the cold is baked in the cake...so a few more runs to go. TRI has managed -6.8F and TYS -7F(for the first six days of the month) without strong amplification. What I am seeing w/ deterministic runs is a tendency to amplify the pattern sooner than later.