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Just too dang weak and positive tilted to throw enough precip back west. So frustrating… Also looks like the bigger runs this morning had a bit of a Pacific jet injection and that is trending down, so less overall moisture in the system.

End result still blows though. My point is we sometimes don’t know until late in the run

Congrats on the surprise over-performer. Rumors are you can thank NWS budget cuts for the "miss" by forecasters. I wouldn't mind a similar surprise tbh.

I wouldn't touch this with your's and Scooter pushing.

it's a little west but sucks that we lost saturday's event now

nam is west

Fringed

Several of the NAM Nest members are also bullish for heavier snow in Tennessee. It's either going to suddenly abandon ship tomorrow, score a wild coup, or go down in flames.

Oh damn, I had to sell my seats tonight as I was stuck at the office late…would have been cool to say hi! Since they lost, you’re not allowed at another game

Can someone with way more knowledge than me weigh in… the setup on 0z versus 18z looks better, but is it just faster? The neutral tilt at hr 69 looks much better to my untrained eye on the 0z, but maybe just too fast, thus late? Or could this be a surface depiction issue and that shield should be much further NW?

Well, I'm on 495, so it isn't that. Under 9" at this point of the season here is wretched.

RRFS will save us

This reminds me how I felt about the types of winters when I was a kid. Either 495 or cape winters. Nothing in between.

Tight gradient that run.

Except I'm not used to it...you should be.

Lmao it might have been me. I had something similar but I do think it was North

Dont worry 0z will take this east and this will be done

Cape gets decent snow.

Yes! I think that was North Pgh with the detour sign.

This is how I feel with the severe weather threads

Agree

Oh well, better than all rain.

Totally, especially that 4 or 5 minute stretch where they gave up 3 goals. Oof.

Through the 1/16 0z HRRR and NAM, it still appears that there will be some flurries, snow showers, or some periods of snow on Saturday. The temperature will likely be above freezing during much or all of the snowfall. In addition, total precipitation will likely be under 0.20" and precipitation rates will be light. As such, the more aggressive model output is likely overdoing the snowfall in and around New York City. Since recordkeeping began, there have been just nine January snowfalls of 1" or more with a minimum temperature of 33° or above. The lowest precipitation for these storms was 0.23". All but one saw 0.50" or more precipitation. Therefore, any accumulations should be light (mainly a coating to an inch).

Couldn’t overcome that ugly second period.