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That is baseline for the QBO.....it's an oddity when it remains in the same phase in consecutive years.

What a few of us have been saying on here:

I just got nicked so managed .05" but it happened in 3 mins which is 1" per hour rates Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What time will the Category 5 Giga Chad El Nino kill my puppy?

Giga-Nino 2026!! Chad or Chud!?! Click to see if DC will be #snowmaxxing this winter!!!!

D4 was cut back some in wake Durham and Franklin counties but overall not much change. Southeastern NC saw worsening of the drought with D4 introduced near Wilmington and an expansion of D3

Yeah…on my VP2 after like 10 years, the battery wouldn’t hold a charge and my station was in direct sunlight almost all day. Davis sent me a replacement capacitor to install. 6 months later, same issue. They told me most likely the solar panels were going bad and needed replaced, which would have been expensive. Also, the funnel rain gauge would clog all the time and I would miss rainfall because of it. It was a huge pain in the butt to get my data uploading to Weather Underground. I was never a fan of Weather Link. I decided on the Tempest! Should be a breath of fresh air having a compact little station with little to no maintenance. The Tempest App seems tons better and more interactive than Weather Link and I’ll be able to get notifications. The lightning detector on the Tempest is also a huge plus!

I certainly don't care for a solid week in midsummer with maybe one hour of sun per day if you're lucky. And the humidity needs to start decreasing!

The poorly written, clickbait articles with dopey catch phrases are inbound.

An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year): 2020-21: +QBO (11.15) 2021-22: -QBO (-26.34) 2022-23: +QBO (12.89) 2023-24: -QBO (-25.86) 2024-25: +QBO (13.78) 2025-26: -QBO (-26.92) 2026-27: +QBO? (2027-28: -QBO?) (2028-29: +QBO?)

I did not expect heavy rain this am. But got nearly 3/4”.

Hopefully can get some rain today. Last event barely reached 1" of rain here over the 4 days

It's going to be too much to ask to get something to time right in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, isn't it?

Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:

Decent chance for hottest month on record for the Lower 48, both by pop-weighted CDDs and areal average.

I JUST Missed this morning's fun. Nothing measurable here...yet. @Jns2183 that heat wave graph is phenomenal! 1988 isn't talked about a whole lot, I remember that July very well. 2 extreme heat waves separated by just a few days. That summer couldn't end soon enough.

Ju-Ply is here. We missed you.

I was speculating on whether this month could become the hottest on record for the CONUS. Modeling continues to support. If the NBM is correct, we would be at or above 2.5F (above 1991-2020) by the 18th. Full month record is 2.38F in 1936, followed by 2.34F in 2012. CFS, EPS and GEFS all have us above the 2011 record for population-weighted CDDs.

After the nice cool days not loving 82° already. Send it back where it came from.

Yeah, it's too disturbingly unpleasant for a profile photo. Could give the kids nightmares. (If you want a nightmare, just go back and read through one of our winter storm threads.)

Of course it rained here a bit this AM., when probs were low, now I can't the lawn. Lets see if the flood watch delivers for later. Mount Holly states the highest threat for severe is South of Philly. Large area of cloud cover at this time.

Pure swamp ass outside Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record. This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic. Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent. Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social 10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026 Arctic Temperatures https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/june-2026-arctic-and-alaska-climate June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years. The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope. Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time. Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature.

I guess they are relying on the "in or around" aspect to capture and inform the risk ... lol Synoptic parameterization throughout the day today do not appreciably differentiate eastern interior MA, nor S. ME, from that region. But, I have not read their AFD; I may be missing something