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A weak system could bring a few scattered rain and/or snow showers tonight into tomorrow. No measurable snowfall is likely in New York City. Since daily snowfall and temperature records were kept, just 1 out of 55 (1.8%) systems with minimum temperatures of 38° or above had measurable snowfall in Central Park. Afterward, tomorrow will be another cool day with highs topping out in the 40s. Below normal temperatures will prevail through at least Thursday. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s. A milder pattern will likely develop during the latter part of the week. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern could continue for a week or longer. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,389th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +27.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.686 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

That pack was impressive, like 30" or so in attleboro

HRRR has been one of the best up here lately with the upslope storms lol. 3km NAM is like 200% too wet. Global models don’t see the terrain that well. HRRR was really good with precip amounts.

Honestly the NWS composite radar might be the best bet. The radar up north is rough with the mountains blocking the low level beam. I need to use like the 2.5 degree tilt for here (level 4 on radar scope) as that’s the first scan that clears the mountains… but then it’s hitting precip like 5,000ft over my head. For folks further away east like Mreaves it’s hitting precip way up and often the beam is overshooting cold season low level precip pretty fast. Often in low level upslope the radar isn’t seeing the Jay area well as the beam is too high by the time the higher angle scans get there. Although this radar image is a bit meh for graphics, it’s actually one of the better coverages you’ll find up here. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCXX/standard

21z HRRR run from today. Looks like the rain/snow line has shifted a hair south compared to earlier runs along with precipitation totals for everyone regardless of p-type. I don't think we'll have as amped of a solution as modeled but still can't rule out a grassy coating for the N of I-78 folks

Heavy snow in McLean. 31/30. 4” on the ground. 6-10” more to come?

Anyone notice the 18z NAM 3k rug pull? Lol it’s winter already!

We have the same problem on this side of the spine. By the time the beam is over us it’s really high so a lot of precip falls under it. @powderfreakexplains it much more elegantly than I can.

Congrats on next weekend on gfs

These weekly Eps snowfall anomaly maps are from Monday fwiw.

Light rain. 41/32

Never saw anything 'flakage-wise' today, not even splats, all rain.

Me too lol

Finally hit 40 degrees! 40.2/38.0 at 5:15 pm.

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1990908932274225661?s=20

A model 1100 hours out is as reliable as the Jets are at winning lol

I hit almost 44 but had sun until about 2 pm. Now it's 35 with light rain. Yuuuuuuuuck lol.

It's only a thousand hours out... How wrong could it be lol

Yeah it’s an impossible task. I use the KTYX radar most of the time. It’ll be interesting in the summer for sure. I’m used to good radar coverage.

95-96 had an epic pack early then melted most it before a reload. Could have been epic. We also had some late starters that held a good pack for a while but to get starting at the beginning of December until St Paddys day is rare.

We have a place on Lake Ozonia north west of you and I have yet to find a radar site that shows the precipitation accurately. I have tried many radar sites without any luck.

Been there - picturing the water ride up the wheel to terrible places.

Where abouts they doing this?

Xmas ‘02. One of my favorite events.

If these weeklies verify then the 2nd half of December is game on for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in my opinion. Especially with the MJO entering phase 8 by that time