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The EPS supports this.

Totally agree. Just need to avoid too much backsliding in the meantime.

MJO forecasts aren’t conductive for entrenched warmth.

This is one of these systems that's going to be off and on until your inside 4 days or so to know where its going, Lot going on aloft.

The OP Euro is trying to show a Norlun trough which seldom works out for our area. The EPS means don’t show it. But it’s always possible a narrowly focused Norlun develops somewhere between ACY and Boston with the UL. It would probably be a nowcasters special for the short term higher res models since they are never well forecast much in advance.

It was evident a week ago it would basically be one or two mild days with no big warmth

EPS has a decent number of members that are warning snow for a chunk of SNE. Lot of spread of course.

Full sun here with dandruff falling! .

Several more incoming after a brief mild down.

Way too early, just going to make people have to switch back and forth between threads since there is so much uncertainty all next week.

You’ll get snow. Trust.

Had a decent snow shower just now at the house and must have missed one while we were at church bc there is a small dusting in spots in the grass up next to the walkway here at the house.

There was that crazy inverted trough deal in early February 2009 that gave localized areas around Lancaster PA 8-9 inches and only light amount just miles away.

A big overrunning WAA type of event with a huge uniform precip shield is my favorite. Like PDII was one of the best, everyone wins and i dont really care about the wind

Sounds like what everyone does with every model that has no snow in their BY.

Well whoever was in charge of the January thaw this weekend should be on probation because it didn't get nicer out even down here in the tropics until a few hours ago.

I made the thread

Euro AI went from a non event to bullish yesterday to a non event again. Not really that stable.

Maybe there is enough time for it to morph into something else?

I don’t buy a non event like that. At least yet.

Yup. It’s been pretty good. People tossing because it’s not snowy

Truth ! It’s like pulling teeth to get something anything without 100 caveats that’ll make it fall apart. .

Since the 12-20” idea that one GFS run threw out is obviously gone, we’re trading between the former Euro AI idea of a widespread 1-3” for this solution where some lucky spot may get 6-8” and some people are going to get almost totally skunked.

I feel like it’s been pretty good at this range. Think that is the likely outcome