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I am really stunned the SPC expanded the slight risk tomorrow and subsequently, the marginal risk further east tomorrow.

Only 97.7 today

^ “Given the inability of the Anticyclone to exercise its normal duties at this time of year; warm waters are fully invading the Peruvian coastline and beginning to manifest off the north of #Chile. On the other hand, with a different dynamic, the dissipation of the cold anomaly off the north of #Ecuador was also observed. #Lima today Saturday, one week from the start of the astronomical winter, is seeing temperatures between 25°C and 27°C. #ElNiño”

Sorry for the late post. I had to decompress after an exhausting two days at work covering the tornadoes and storm damage. It was another wildly memorable event for our area in an exceptionally busy Spring. I faired well in my backyard. Kept power and no damage. Obviously many nearby weren’t as lucky. We had so many amazing videos and photos to share at my tv station. It was like something out of the Great Plains. Looks like another round may be lurking next week.

It’s wild that 94 is much less hot!

Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.

Looking like another impactful stretch of weather coming up, with Wednesday, as of now, having the highest ceiling. StormNet, CSU-MLP, and other ML products have all had very "hot" runs lately, pretty eyecatching stuff, especially as the northern bound of the highest prob area is over the same area that saw several tornadoes on Thursday. The GEFS has been consistent in showing an area of high P[SCP>1] over portions of Missouri and Illinois, even back into Kansas, for multiple runs now, while other models expand the risk further east towards Ohio. Regardless, very strong flow for this time of the year will overlap an area of ample moisture. Should be an interesting couple days.

God I hope ur right bro!!!

Apparently, not humid enough for some.

Agreed, it looks like another potentially widespread and significant severe weather episode with very strong flow overlapping high moisture. Tuesday could have some potential too.

Short range models whiiffed,better convection was seemingly in SW Tn,but nothing really severe

Ugh! No fun! That had to be miserable for her on Friday! As I get older my excitement for severe weather is drastically waning! I only root for snowstorms now!

Sheesh...what do we have to wait another decade to get outta this? Boo, lol

Well I don't mind the drought because I don't have to cut an acre of lawn every week. But I do miss the rain cause the grass is looking more brown then green

I had some minor branches go in ng across. The driveway but other than that, the storm were more bark then bite. Barely any rain

Much less hot today we haven’t broken 94 yet. Mostly overcast and not as humid

Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS

So much for rain today too...rain will stay south...screwed again

Decent

It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry.

Sorry for the late reply. Sadly I missed out on the seeing the storm hit due to other reasons but could hear it. Family reported that we had a huge wind gust and lost power because of it. Was out for about 2.5 hours. Kids saw a sweet rainbow and sunset sky after that was awesome. Speaking of trees, my mom's hood in annandale was smacked from the storms on Thursday. A huge 30" poplar fell across the road taking out power lines. That was 8pm thursday. Dominion didn't show up until yesterday afternoon so a full 18 hours later. They worked on things but the storms last night knocked power out for a larger area surrounding my mom's house. She didn't get power back until 2am. So a full 30 hours w/o power for an 85 year old and no a/c. And dominion wants to merge to make more money.

Gorgeous day

Hit 100 again today.

What a day

79/55 But that peak June sun feels much warmer to me. I would’ve guessed mid-80s working outside.