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The pattern recognition/suggestion/modulating favorably into the first week of Dec has been in the scaffolding of the outlook since at least two weeks ago. It’s not suddenly emerging thus challenging …

Keep it right there. Don't move it an inch.

This is like being told grandma made the stuffing so you know its banger but then in reality aunt gertrude made it with oysters. Don't trust it yet

Definitely a different look on the cmc.

Looks in-between icon and GFS.

Crushed!

would this be considered a SWFE or a Miller A Nor'easter?

CMC going to be good

yep, think it's gonna be icy. CMC and it's para were icy last night so it's at least consistent. Canadian models love ice and I swear they are always too cold

Chicago saw under 20 last winter. I dont mind that they'll get more than us this storm. Regardless looks like a widespread advisory to warning criteria snowstorm. Thats on top of the early November 9-10 snowfall and cold as far as the eye can see...excellent start to winter!

4.6” final call. Chicagoland looks locked and loaded for a solid 6-9” event

We lost the 850s before the storm started so will be icy instead of snowy.

Don't have the pretty maps but don't see how Canadian doesn't start us wintry, whether snow or ice. Pretty darn cold right before the precip rolls in

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to. I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had. We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened. They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times

Still feel fall line s and e will have to wait for theirs. One gfs run doesn't change my thoughts.

3-6" seems like a good call for Detroit.

Well, if anybody would know...

Getting better .

thats even better ! Walt is going to have his work cut out for him trying to figure out how to explain all of this in the storm thread......

hasnt things trended colder on the whole? or is that weenie wishcasting

that pink is heavy wet snow, that doesn't show ice

Wonder if the 5th has any potential as the GFS has another shortwave take a similar path but looks to get shredded

Congrats and Happy Thanksgiving!

Ice wise for the southwestern areas it would be freezing rain in the upper 20s so may be legit enough to cause issues.

12z GFS snow for just Tuesday.