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Today will probably be a slight + too. This month would've been solidly AN when I was growing up in the 90s.
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Nope +0.7F
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GWDLT. August was below too at BDL I believe…
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I hear ya. Weighing in here from the Fort Collins area. It looks like we're way too far north to cash in on any of this moisture. Should be getting to used to that by now but still get PO'd about it! Hope you guys in Denver metro get something out of it. BTW here in northern CO and in WY to our north it's been a miserably hot and dry year, and seemingly no end to it.
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Some body has said very recently that we don't have BN September's anymore despite the new normals. Probably Forky or Kev BIG 4 September BOSTON - 1.2 PVD -.04 HFD -.09 ORH -09
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same in pwm. Misting and wet.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with. -
Won’t be either here
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher. -
2 brutal forecast days by NWS here . Mostly sunny epic fail
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In the whole picture I'm not seeing H5 similarities to 1997 and 2015. -
What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Close to Oct 1997 and 2015. The only difference is those years had more ridging north of the Bering sea. These were +PDO Ninos.
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I'd lean Wed morning...Tue AM we may still be mixed with CAA. But yeah, growing season may be on thin ice up here unless the intensity backs off...which is possible given it's 6 days out.
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No, May-June-July-Aug NAO was -0.75 per month, that comes out to -0.07/month for DJFM, or DJFM total of -0.28, based on 75 years. Weak correlation, but generally those 4 months negative then Oct pos is an interesting point for more winter -nao tendency.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25. -
I think the rain threat will return on the models.
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Frost and freeze advisories will be flying for Tuesday morning.
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May, June, Aug, Sept NAO total was -3.00.. -0.75/mo. 3/4 months negative. I think the overall correlation from -0.75 MJJA to DJFM is -0.07/8 lol.
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Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter.
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Not with this. -PDO is cold water in the GOA. This is also anti-El Nino October
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
