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Yea, I agree with him on late month...just wish we hadn't wasted so much season beforehand.

Watch out for potential major Arctic plunges week of 1/19-26: this was released on Tue 12/30.Exclusive Weather Updates from Vaisala/X Weather & The Weather Co.Brad Harvey, senior operational meteorologist at Vaisala, says that the forecast for the 6-to 10-day period features much-above-normal temperatures from the West to Texas. Highs are forecast to reach the 50s in Denver, 60s-70s in Dallas, and 70s in Houston. The Midwest and East are forecast to be drier than normal thanks to rounds of high pressure migrating southward from Canada. The forecast is near normal for temperatures in the Upper Midwest and below normal in the East. Risks are mixed for the Upper Midwest, where our forecast takes the middle ground between the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF solutions. Meanwhile, warmer risks in the Rockies are associated with downslope flow, while the Great Basin could be colder under high pressure. The models have lacked consistency in both the 6-to 10-day and 11-to 15-day periods. “The GFS EN projects a –PNA pattern, while ECMWF trends toward a +PNA. Neither of these solutions are given higher favorability, with our forecast featuring a round of above normal temperatures in the Eastern Half and belows emerging late in the Midwest.” For more information, go to https://www.xweather.com/weatherdesk. Mickey Shuman, a senior meteorologist with The Weather Company, tells us that for most of next week, the Pacific pattern will reverse, helping to drive mild Pacific air into much of western and interior North America. However, a west-based -NAO block will impede the advancement of the mild air into the East. By the 11-to 15-day period, mild Pacific and maritime Atlantic air will overspread the entirety of Canada, essentially shutting down the risk of any major cold air intrusions, such that most of the CONUS moderates and ends up on the warmer side of normal, supporting a prolonged stretch of lower-than-normal GWHDDs. That being said, an emerging +PNA signal also suggests that there won’t be a major or sustainable warm-up and that some seasonably cold air attempts to expand south and east later in the period. The bigger story is the potential pattern change for the middle to end of the month, which could lead to noteworthy cold Arctic blasts over the eastern two-thirds centered on the week of the 19-26th. For more information, go to https://www.weathercompany.com/

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/boston-weather-wind-chills-temperature-massachusetts/ This would explain the chopper I heard circling overheard this morning. Thought I heard something come crashing down in the woods late last night. That wind was whipping like crazy!

Average/normal snow with plenty of cold for some so far. And yes, Low snow for others in SE and NE Mass..except the Cape….they’re doing quite well so far.

I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.

The Euro has a LP that moves from Colorado, southwest towards So Cal and then it just sit there over the Southwest.

Nothing burger from the 0z Euro. I have read some conversations that the MJO rolls into phase 6 right as the EPO forms. We may be seeing some of that. The Euro at 500 is still better than 12z though IMO. See u at 12z tomorrow.

This winter has been mixed. Low snow but plenty of cold. Roads and walkways are dry now save for the odd ice patch and small snow pile. Tomorrow night will mess that up. I’m ready for a mild stretch unless we can manufacture some snow that’s significant.

Oh well. Setting an alarm for 3:30am tonight. Probably in vain. But a weenie’s gotta do what a weenie’s gotta do!

Actually I’m not frustrated here after the 8.5” dump back on Friday. So I’m frustration free.

Gawx like so many in here have been all over the data of temps trending colder.

Blackwater will be fine regardless of snow depth. I've been up there w 2-3 ft of snow depth and while the roads can be snow packed, they are drivable. There will be no driving access to dolly sods. The FS roads that provide direct access are closed in the winter. You may want to look into going to whitegrass ski area and paying their small day use fee for hiking and snowshoeing. You can hike up above 4000ft and when you're done, get a hot meal at their hut at the base.

Not necessarily. Wintery but frustration potential abounds. LOL

A wintry non frustrating January then.

Nice looks and decent agreement in general with cold placement and vastness of the airmass.

GFS showing a more active pattern late next week. Something to watch.

So far, this winter has been "wintery", just in a somewhat frustrating manner. I expect a decent January.

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.

Wait...how? Lol

The GFS AI has an incredible cold bias lol. It's a weenie's dream model.

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

Sitting in Knoxville… The 0z AIGFS is definitely quick with the EPO ridge as it installs it around the 8th, and the trough begins to kick eastward at that time. Very cold model and the 0z GFS has basically joined it. John covers all of that nicely above.

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

Ridge in Greenland…Alaska and dc lol

Just under an inch here.