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Still snowing and winds have increased significantly. Saw two accidents happen yesterday, typical snow fender bender and another in the ditch. Widespread win for this board, the Monday system looks more likely to over achieve than under, liking the trends on the latest cycle.

Aren't they always the most cautious. They are the same with their temp outlooks too.

Sounds like watches may be hoisted for some later on this afternoon. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA, primarily east of US-15. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ have trended up a bit also supporting the 30-50% probability in the Poconos, with an even higher likelihood up through coastal New England. If the current track/timing holds, watches may be needed in the next forecast cycle. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Guidance has remained consistent overall for snowfall amounts with the last two runs, however some uncertainty remains whether or not warm nosing above the surface could limit snow across the PA/MD border. If mixing is a problem for anywhere in Central PA, it would be for locations southeast of US-30 in York and Lancaster County. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.

GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. Bet snowman loves that

T-3” here? Lol

GFS cooled off pretty good and lost the double barrel thing. Looks decent

We'd probably get a solid storm if airmass was a little colder. Pretty nice track actually

medium.com LOOKING AT DEC 2025 — Why this Skeptic is excited and impressed if you like cold and snow across… https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftinyurl.com%2F4zz29cpf%3Ffbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExRHFKR3d5eWZkWFh4N3NIdXNydGMGYXBwX2lkEDIyMjAzOTE3ODgyMDA4OTIAAR64Db6hrzhHBqw9PcwAS_B5-GW7RMqvcBp4PPSaf-AqtHxDk-982emevvrHCA_aem_djIOIOJplYY6yNXOtcGdTQ%26brid%3D9LBgYp824EHizRWAjxURkQ&h=AT0MjW5gCTgagc5MCYFz7VyTgHLbtmZ_50_x1jSbjkzF32pa08tj9uY6yfnase-cUcozv7fbsLlJA9t1kSTZE7vtVx_F0NL7ExaSTxhPNQZqFyLIjTa4nqc3xLFgrC6zIwZHz5NXMM3Hmg&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2bvekVPFHdsvbm9EJjV7o_uzJq5lokP7RefAaHUds3cVz5tyeljQcBcJiNXyqBfySk6YHBR6kkNbLGX2hmjhglyTWo1_Hk2bFacZEd-0GnZLWQeWJGCtGDsP3EjoGtbgx31K54epNRBnaBNtwdXcej2QxAtWv5Y2FSAWR0wjKrzTwwhBC8BLsgaItGmTVSgkgs2L_JpYRxX_8LB7nqKeBVItuTjQ

Rates could be wild for a bit if things break right.. 6z GEFS mean bumped up to 7 for here

Initial point and click of 6-8”, looks reasonable at upper bound. If we can just figure out NAM being out to lunch a decent starter storm will be at hand.

Heads up for early risers in the metros - looks like maybe a chance of some frozen / mixed precip until 8 am or so…

That’s a rather nice run.

Don't agree with your comments. The article provided references. Other than fully depreciated gas and nuclear, Renewables are the lowest cost of electricity in the US. New gas plants will be much more expensive than fully depreciated; and, as the article states, costs and backlogs for new gas plants are increasing.

WB 6Z GFS...

Euro Weeklies 46 day 2m temp anomalies: 11/25 run: NYC and Chicago -3F 11/29 run: NYC -6F, Chicago -8F (would be coldest in many years for that period) Euro seasonal winter fcast issued Nov 1st: huge warm bust potential increasing, which could end up like last winter or even worse:

C'mon, that's a ridiculous forecast lol. The forward speed of this won't allow for accumulations that high imo.

What delightful thoughts these are to be pondering as I sip on some coffee early this morning. Yeah, let's get the MJO to shove that warm pool out to the dateline...

Graphical map of "expected" snowfall...

So did CTP. Last night they said 3-5 for my backyard on Tuesday, and now they added in overnight accumulations that take it to 4-10. Monday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 37. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

GFS came in a little colder too. Maybe we’ll get a GFS/Euro convergence today.

Peep the GFS trending colder with the onset precip. Euro might be on to something here

What a great event! A couple of night time shots from around where I live.