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Low clouds stayed moving east to west about an hour ago

2-3ft here….not even a dusting in Methuen. Good thing it’s not 5-6 months from now.

I think the only exception to that was parts of Monmouth County, NJ and some locations on Staten Island and along the South shore. Certainly the northern locations with 5-7" it was spread out to avoid any flash flooding. Gotta believe BJ's is going to have lawsuits for not maintaining their rooftop drains. Litigious society and all.

Which is more likely? ONI at 3.5, or 3.5 pages without mention of snow in the Northeast. I know what I'd bet on. July 2015 was actually very much dead on the long-term temp correlation for Nino 1.2, 3, 3.4, 4, etc. This year has been less so month to date. The pattern right now for July looks a lot like the 2023-24 winter - very warm NE 1/4 of the US, a bit cool or near average West & South. But July 2023 itself was cold North Central. The Modoki El Ninos that are cold in the East in winter tend to be cold in July in the East: 2004, 2009, 2014 were all cold in the East or Northeast for both. Best indication that everything is "clicking" correctly for US El Nino impacts is the long-term precipitation tendency. We're not there yet. Amarillo-Boise zone is not behaving yet. Northeast and Florida should be much better too. The map (even accounting for Tropical Tidbits adjusting for global SSTs by global mean above average) for oceans looks very different to July 2023.

My typical zero in fuquay varina...lol. Glad Falls lake got some good rain!

Also maxed out at 99.0 before the clouds arrived and heat index was 112 which I believe was highest of the entire heat wave here

Under the stratiform rain coming off the cells in southern Fairfax and still get .2+ inch per hour rates.

Wow that sucks. I’m lucky here in New Windsor having power. Just broke the 5” reading with 5.03” currently.

Have to wonder if that heavy rain near the islands makes it this far north before it gets blasted east.

Don’t think I need to water in morning. 2.89” here. Radar estimates show over 6” just east of my location. Maybe more to come overnight? 3.03” MTD

This is what we are. A very good but not top level team. Can't make mistakes like they did tonight and expect to beat a top 10 team.

So far this has been the perfect" pre season game" for the methuen area...not a drop of rain has fallen while areas to the south have been "buried".... #TOTALWASTELAND

The good news for most was that it was spread out over 24 hrs which mitigated flood risks

I’m sure these will dissipate and we’ll get a couple hundredths of light stratiform rain.

Should be a good rain to soak in later tonight and tomorrow. I came home to El Paso. Ground is hard as a rock. Windy here tomorrow too.

Man I knew they were done the second that appeal to the FIFA president happened. Nothing good was gonna come from that, lol

HRRR looked reasonable. A general .5-1.5"

NAM radar sim is comically wrong, however

4” in Boston on the 18z NAM and about 2 tenths on the 00z through 20 hours

This is the kind of thing I’ve seen in the orioles

It just doesn’t want to rain IMBY all these models saying rain is coming and nothing to show

NAM also . some knew

Wasn’t it supposed to pour rain tonight?

00z HRRR