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So what was your guess last year during a La Nina dominated by +PNA? PDO was even more negative at this point last year. Could it be more -PNA? Yes! Is it a given? No!

Euro is coming on board with the GFS with some interesting weather looking possible around the Nov 28th-29th and Dec 4th-5th timeframe.

Scooter said NO

I hate being a downer, but I'm not high on snow chances in the mid- or long-range yet. I think there will probably be a cold shot after Thanksgiving, but wintry chances locally will depend on very favorable wave spacing and evolution, which is still too low confidence for me to get excited. The good news to me is that we are transitioning into the season where we can realistically analyze the models for snow threats. The bed news is we are still in a rut where legit chances seem very hard to come by.

If lakes in November can hold a duck the rest of winter is mud and muck???

Lost 90 lbs down to high school playing weight 234. Hopefully hit 225 by New Year's. Good eating and a honey do list longer than a Mt Mansfield winter. Prefrontal days are always warmer than normal especially this late in fall.

Lest anyone be in doubt that we are still in a -----PDO Lan Nina basestate take a look at the MJO forecast. It actually did a backwards propagation (often forecasted rarely occurring) in phase 5 and looks poised to do it again in phase 6. Convection REALLY likes to be in Maritime Continent/E Pac.

Makes sense imo. The solid wall to wall Winter's did basically what you described. High latitude blocking helped mitigate what trips the MJO made through the warm Phases. In some cases, it would go either low amp through or COD and come back into cold Phases( SST'S were supportive of that then). My guess is as your's, in that the MJO will make it back to warm Phases at some point as the SST'S are still supportive for that to occur at decent Amp. As you noted, the -QBO should help. Also, NATL SST'S have became more favorable in supporting a -NAO.

Just seeing a long range paste bomb brings seasonal joy after the past few years. Nothing like a little hope-porn to get the tracking juices flowing.

0.13" for Muttontown & 0.11" for Syosset

12z oper GFS's 29th NJ model impacter should not be summarily tossed... Not saying it's high confidence - how could I ... But typically the front side wave spaces, while major hemispheric mode changes are underway, are cyclogen active. In principle ...the period of time is okay for activation of storm systems. Way too early to be detailed beyond...

MJO stuff...First off, that is not a warm look for December. In fact, it kind of just crawls through the left side of the plot which is not something we have seen in recent years. It seems like the MJO almost defaulted to 4, 5, and 6. How many times have we seen the MJO hit the wall in phase 6 and not move? It looks like this time it might hit the wall while in the cold phases for once. That "could" mean an extended period of cold. If you like really LR thinking, I have to wonder if it can get through the warm phases(before winter fades) if it exits the cold phases in late December or early January. I think it can...and probably by the last third of January. That would give us two decent shots of cold if one assumes winter comes back during that last week of January. But that second cold shot can be difficult, but the QBO may help us in that regard.

Felt like winter late last night and early this morning as I had to bring my wife’s car in for service before a long trip. One cold November I recall about 25 years ago had a light coating of ice on the Charles River a few days before Thanksgiving. I’m pretty confident of our best start in a long time. We may have some driving issues the first week of December along the heart of the LES country. But I’m bringing my boots, ice spikes which may be needed, and heaviest coats, gloves, etc. It’s coming!

This was one of those easy snow day events that we need in January and February.

This feels like Groundhogs Day.

I want whatever Central VA is cooking: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12

Actually, I don't know why it posted that way. It was supposed to read "can you guess where I wish I was?"

Stay safe

The wave amplified much further west this run, so the low formed farther west and the cold didn't get a chance to dig as south as the earlier run either. Like I said, there is a trough in the east and some energy around, maybe something can happen.

Finagled 22 here on the river. 18 just up the road.

The idea of an imminent SSW/MSW event is a high-confidence one. However, there is often a tendency to treat forecast developments (“SSW → PV split → EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- → brutal NE weather”) as if it were an inevitable, linear, cause-and-effect chain. If such logic were reliable, forecasting accuracy at multi-week stages would be high. That isn't the case. I personally believe that there will be an increase in wintry effects, especially from near mid-December into at least late December based on typical 1-3 week lags and the currently forecast teleconnection evolution. That's my baseline thinking at present. However, that thinking isn't cast in stone. Reality is messier. For example, not every SSW leads to a prolonged deep AO-. Not every AO- period results in severe cold and/or excessive snowfall. From this far out, model skill is poor to non-existent on critical synoptic factors e.g., future storm tracks, the emergence of North Pacific jet streaks, exact ridge-trough placement, etc. A bad pattern coupled with a well-timed phase can produce a big snowstorm; a great pattern but badly-timed phases or absence of shortwaves can result in a lack of snowfall. Seemingly favorable ensemble means can also disguise large differences among ensemble members. Clusters can provide insight into some scenarios. Here are the forecast 500 mb anomalies at 360 hours: Here are the latest 500 mb and 1000 mb ECMWF clusters: 500 mb: 1000 mb: For now, potential is on the table. But nothing is locked in, just yet, in terms of specific details.

Looks like not just your locale where temps stayed a bit higher as well, This was 6am, KLEW hit 17°F on the 7:00am update. 728 ASUS41 KGYX 191110 RWRGYX WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 600 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025 * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-191200- MAINE CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS PORTLAND PTCLDY 21 20 96 CALM 30.14S SANFORD* CLEAR 16 14 92 CALM 30.14R BAR HARBOR CLEAR 28 24 85 CALM 30.13R WISCASSET CLEAR 25 20 81 CALM 30.15R ROCKLAND* CLEAR 31 24 75 NW7 30.13R FRYEBURG CLEAR 18 14 84 CALM 30.12R LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR 18 16 92 CALM 30.13R AUGUSTA NOT AVBL WATERVILLE* CLEAR 27 23 85 CALM 30.10R BANGOR CLEAR 25 22 88 CALM 30.12R GREENVILLE N/A 21 19 92 CALM 30.01R MILLINOCKET NOT AVBL HOULTON CLEAR 25 23 92 SW5 30.02R PRESQUE ISLE CLOUDY 30 26 85 W5 30.01R FRENCHVILLE CLEAR 26 23 88 W12 29.94R WCI 16 CARIBOU CLEAR 27 24 89 SW6 29.97R $$

12z GFS for the people who were confused at my post earlier lol: