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Ok if we're going to just change the title instead of locking make it .. "Beefs about NWS, models, warnings, media, hype, Joe Public's stupidity, a smattering of climate change debate, and appearances by our favorite cranky lunatics. Don't forget bashing mets and young enthusiasts!"

I preach that all of the time here. But you and I know what they mean by the maps. Their probabilities tend to correlate with anomalies. It takes a lot for them to paint any shade of blue on there in the 3-4 week window.

Here something a little different for general FYI. I got this table of highest storm surges and storm tides for Portland ME (PWM). I learned a few things here. Storm surge and storm tide are 2 different things, but we often use them interchangeably. Storm surge is the water height deviation from atmospheric phenomena in itself, nothing else. Storm tide takes into account everything, the atmospheric contribution, monthly astro tides, the 19 year tidal epoch, coast rise/drop, and anything else that may influence a tide height. In the NEUS/Mid-Atlantic we use storm tide the most b/c we have 2 high tides a day and our tidal ranges are high. Along the Gulf Coast, storm surge used most often b/c there is only 1 high tide a day and the tidal range is low. For PWM, 3 of the 5 highest storm surges are not even in the top 20 highest storm tides, so that shows how one is not necessarily related to the other. For proper historical scaling and an objective meteorological POV, storm surge is what one would use b/c that has only one factor. For storm tides, one may note that we've had 5 top ten tides in the last 8 years. But that is not a level playing field. PWM sea level has risen about 8" in 100 years, and more than half of that is due to local land subsidence.

Looks like multiple days of 100s

NWS website down. EDIT: Came back up as soon as I posted this.

what

smokin and grillin with AB - my favorite cooking YT channel right now. Want some BBQ baked chicken? These came out okay for my first time and I will refine and modify the ingredients.

"Saturday 6/27" weather event is over so prob time to lock the thread?

yeah, there's a trend here to scale back the heat collapse. We'll have to see on that but ...the 00z Euro was extending matters and now this 12z GFS is definitely backed off the calving S out of eastern Canada look it was previously selling over next weekend.

On the barrier islands sure but just inland away from them made it to 100 during the heat last summer since we had an established WNW downslope flow. We’ll see if that holds this time but it might be very impressive near the coast where that offshore flow can maintain.

How did I get drawn into this "kerfuffle??" A couple of things for all. 1) People can agree to disagree and still be friends/civil. 2) Debate/discussion overall is a *good* thing! That's how science advances and everyone learns more. Not just objective facts, but improve ways to present and communicate, which, IMHO, is the biggest hurdle we face, esp. in this social media age. Tone, inflection, and countenance, among other things, are lost via social media and it is all too easy to assume the negative, and then ppl get upset and the conservation devolves or shuts down. That's not good.

Not to take anything away from the Nino region SSTs, in particular in regions 3.4 and 1+2, which have been breaking records for warmth for weeks now, the subsurface is just blazing and still warming. Once these transiting (new) DWKWs reach the EPAC and augment what’s there now, subsurface anomalies reaching +12C in the next couple of months would not surprise me. The thermocline in the EPAC continues to deepen dramatically from the full trade wind reversal and the nonstop WWBs/westerlies

As usual the HRDPS nailed it for the past several runs. Best short term model by far.

West winds Friday. That’s the day the south shore roasts. .

My temp has been 69 or 70 the entire day. Up to 0.37” since midnight, very much a small drop, warm rain process happening today.

Sun has become pretty active again contrary to your typical transition to a minimum. Let's see is that continues. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

does anyone have access to the aids euro

Definitely still a brutal GFS run through next weekend and perhaps even drier than the previous one. It is not doing anything with the lemon offshore. Falls Lake after yesterday's rainfall. Each tenth would represent 1.2 inches.

Late to the party on this one, but this is the Cfs2 ssta map prog for December. Sure looks basinwide to these old eyes. Definitely not Modoki.

I am amazed at how wrong you can be about so many things!! No wonder you didn't know the difference between a Watch and a Warning! Amazing A couple other duds: Why would I be "vehemently against climate change" when it has been non-stop for millions of years! As far as "knowing more than studied meteorologists", that is hilarious!!! I like nothing more than learning from a true professional. Voretex 95 is highly intelligent and made fantastic contributions to the discussion yesterday. I only wish that he could find the time to make daily contributions. Cape? Well, he used to be contributory at times. More and more as he gets older, he gets his kicks by trying to be the bulldog on the block. Mental issues I guess. Stay straight, study hard and one day you may be a fine met. My disappointment yesterday was that several months ago, considering your desired course in life, I thought I could occasionally begin to learn from you. I just have to be patient.

To be fair, the 'white' region is 'equal chances' which pertains to either above or below normal. I think what trips people up is both the structure of the curves of those, plus the colorization. both inspire warm(cool) depending where the orientations layout. But, that product isn't scalar cold or hot. It's purely a probability. And the below area? that's not overwhelmingly high odds for below, either. So scoring this based purely on probability, that's not really a fail. It's certainly not good. But it's not an F

My COOP site (RSTM2) has never hit 100° either.

That's historic here in NJ. Ridge axis being a bit west could spare New England from 100s.

Just imagine the masterpiece of a symphony Beethoven could create based on the unison of hums from all of the A/C's that will be cranking full-throttle and non-stop for the next foreseeable future.