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Good to see some positives within range on the map. Always remember the 3 day rule though.

The 1960s had the best Long Island and surrounding area radiational cooling following the big snowstorms of that era. for January 21, 1961 through January 31, 1961 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SHRUB OAK COOP -25 NY CARMEL COOP -24 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP -21 CT WESTBROOK COOP -21 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -20 CT WATERBURY RADIO WBRY COOP -19 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -18 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -18 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -17 NY SUFFERN COOP -16 CT DANBURY COOP -16 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP -16 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN -15 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -14 CT GROTON COOP -14 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -13 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -12 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP -12 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP -11 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -10 NY SCARSDALE COOP -10 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -10 NJ ELIZABETH COOP -10 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -10 NY WEST POINT COOP -7 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP -7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP -7 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -7 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP -2 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -2 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -2 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 NJ PATERSON COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -1 Data for February 7, 1967 through February 14, 1967 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY STEWART FIELD WBAN -20 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -16 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -16 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP -15 CT WESTBROOK COOP -15 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -14 NY CARMEL COOP -12 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -12 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -11 CT DANBURY COOP -10 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -10 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -10 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -10 CT GROTON COOP -9 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -9 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP -9 NY SUFFERN COOP -8 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP -7 NY SCARSDALE COOP -6 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -6 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP -5 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -5 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP -4 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -4 NY WEST POINT COOP -4 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -4 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP -2 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP -2 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP -1

We will see for yall outside the mountains. I've seen a lot of heartbreak with yall. The next 7 days look decent.

throwback DT post

Up to 45 today. The snow pack is only 4 inches but it is dense.

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

This puzzle will have many moving parts, but, as currently depicted, the 95 corridor probably does better than western areas for the 18th and 19th. I don't like complication.

dude, I don't have to post when things look crappy. everyone knows it looks crappy when the pattern is unfavorable and I don't find SE ridges and 50 degree weather interesting, so I don't really post about them. that is the case for most people here though, I should make sure that I hold my posts to your stringent standards; I'm sure everyone on this forum would appreciate if I had such unbiased analysis as yourself

Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.)

Good 12z suite. In the meantime, some beneficial rains will occur before the cold moves in on Sunday. I think everyone has pretty much taken care of the 12z disco...not much to add from me!

I understand this all the time….but at some point there’s a point where there’s enough venting too. And you just suck it up. Or log off. And it’s not all positive all the time. I got no issues saying it sucks when it does.

12z EPS for both storms.

Super.

Difficult to buy into anything right now. Mid-range modeling has been suspect for a few months. Long-range is worth even less. I'm not too worried about individual threats until they close within three-to-five days. The best we might hope for is a return to the December clipper-heavy pattern. I think it is possible, if not probable, that the worst of our winter cold is over with, however. Height anomalies over Canada don't look quite as robustly cold as they were a month ago, and a massive building -EPO coupled with +PNA might reconfigure how cold air gets moved through the CONUS. A huge ridge out west precludes cold air from coming at us in a westerly fashion and retains a more northern component. The ridge does create opportunities for storms to ride down the spine and amplify south of us, but the speed of the northern stream combined with a lack of blocking really caps any potential. Even a big coastal would move in a hurry absent additional variables that aren't yet clear. The combination is a somewhat typical Nina atmosphere. Not to say the rest of winter will be warm, only that it is more moderate than what we dealt with previously with quite negative departures. A February warm-up is always a threat. If you do believe anything very long-range, the data itself doesn't yet support that outcome. Cold conditions may be bolstered if the MJO eventually traverses through Phase 7 as currently progged.

Today's record low for Islip is -4 from 1968.

Up to a balmy 48 here.

Same to you.

EPS doesnt support a Cutter

Euro's all over the place not saying your wrong or even off ...but we're analyzing shitness from where i'm sitting, this one run appears to be favoring the 2nd wave in that broadly interfering headache, while simultaneously speeding up the 2nd wave... it was the 19th and 20th last night. yikes

We were a heat island before heat islands were cool.

I mean this as nicely as possible but you may be better served by reading more and posting less. The amount of posts you’ve shared that make little to no sense and provide no value is kind of baffling. A little self awareness goes a long way!

Even though today were good runs for WPa on CMC and EURO, my fear, like you say, is these are late developing and areas south and EC are the winners like on the GFS.

Those should be in banter honestly.

If we take your analysis at face value, everything is always trending better and there is always a "favorable" period somewhere out in the long range. I appreciate analysis, but would prefer a more balanced assessment.

Canadian is also a nice hit and Euro is a close miss. The next week of tracking should be fun.