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.50" from the squall

Been a 8 years since the sub as whole has seen a colder Dec.

Damn. What a classic look to score around here in January. We actually do decent with well-defined SWFE looks like this. I dig it

I wouldn't be a surprised to see a day or three like that, but I don't think that will be representative of the majority of the month.

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that.

somehow I feel like that energy back in the SW ~7th is holding back on the potential for the wave to amplify a bit more

I did't get that from the post of his that I agree with, but figured maybe there was another one that I didn't see.

Really… on January 1st…what’s happening to you Ken? Does the back creak on July 1st? And no, I’m not glass full or overflowing all the time either. Looks like we have a couple threats to track again…I’ll enjoy whatever snow we can get. Long way to go…winter only officially 10 days old..back in great shape. And when we get the thaw, to whatever degree it comes with here, we will enjoy the nicer temps for a little reprieve.

Got woken up to the squalls moving through early this morning. Absolutely smoked. Shook the house. The snow coated everything in an inch of its life. A great start to 2026 imo. Kudos to the hi-res that were on this potential from 36-48 hrs out. This was a strong axis of PVA coupled with impressive PBL dynamics. One thing I learned many years ago with talking to Bernie Rayno at the AMS Conference in Phoenix in 2015, while drinking and nerding out over winter weather….fresh injections of Arctic air tend to bring fresh coatings of white in their paths. This was no different. Happy to see all the cool reports and for some of these pics out of Western MD depicting a winter wonderland @nj2va Happy New Year everyone. Let’s bring home a good winter after a solid start for most.

Yup. Exactly what we were discussing earlier, and why we don't necessarily want a +PNA with an EPO ridge. A Slightly -NAO.

He's just trying to get a rise out of us.

Did'nt measure but looks to be 4-6" here..

Yeah if i recall most of the obs locally were 3-4" in that one. That 2.5" would put them over 5" for that event.

The 12z GEFS has flipped to an eastern trough. Look at it at 18z last night. Look at it now. @Holston_River_Rambler, thanks for the PDO numbers. It looks like it is trending away from severely negative. We just need it to get near neutral so it isn't default Mountain West trough.

heh, I actually knew that when i responded but i'm getting play-by-play fatigue. haha

Everyone has been complaining the last few years that we don't get clippers anymore. Well, do you want a clipper pattern or not? lol

Shouldn’t have to go far. At some point the cold air will come with a clipper and going up 221 will be a short trek for you.

There’s two different waves in there. GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it.

Up to a little over 19" seasonal as of Jan 1. Not bad for SNE

Some of us also need to realize the SER is not going anywhere. Basic Nina climo. The key is when/if GL ridging/-epo/hudson bay pv displacement can squash the SER at times and allow for something to ride along the flattened gradient extending sw->ne. This isnt a big storm look necessary (though always a chance) but a more Nina-esque way to pad our seasonal snowfall.

New 12z gefs trending for more NS interaction on the 4th. New run Old 12z run yesterday

Beer?

Euro went much colder. Short warmup but repeated tendency to drive western ridge and east trough.

Yeah GFS has something there, too

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter. The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event. There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31. Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.