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That's what I have always maintained...if we hit like 2035 and are still in that pattern, then I'll capitulate....but the tide already seems to be turning. Obviously the word is warming....I'm not disputing that, but I'm just referring to the ability to discern the degree to which these patterns/phenomena are a byproduct of CC versus how much they are attributable to natural variation. The atmosphere is still cyclical...it's just warmer, and some of said cycles are becoming augmented and somewhat increasingly stagnated.

I’m basically filtered sun now. The low level fog is gone. Just need these t-showers to kick through and we’re good.

36.4° +SHRA (RW+ for vortex)

Imagine that 152 days below 32

43/41

That’s SW downslope off the Catskills. But yeah it will slowly improve SW to NE. But I think we’re skunked most of the day. Maybe SW flow off the Monads will work in our favor.

Given that the greater Kyoto area has a population of 3.6 million people (with I'm sure a similar but upward-sloping curve), and is thus subject to UHI effect - I'd say yeah you could adjust that. Not saying UHI accounts for that - just saying that it can account for some portion of it. I'll reiterate what I have often before - IMO the only fully valid datasets with regards to MMGW are ones from truly remote areas. Sea ice, ocean temps, and fully-rural sensors - thumbs up. City-based or even suburban sensor data - not so much.

These next 10-15 years will be critical in the CC aspect and exactly how much of an influence CC has had. So much has been talked about regarding the lack of Arctic ice cover, the abundance of active Atlantic hurricane seasons and increasing number of storms undergoing RI, the western/mid-western droughts and excessive heat waves...all of these are also a result of the PDO/AMO state we have been in. So the question is, did CC just further exacerbate the intensities? But what happens once we get the PDO/AMO to flip? If we're continuing to see these recent trends continue with a flipped ATL/PAC that could speak volumes. Even though we are barely into spring, it is definitely encouraging looking at some of the very early analogs for the upcoming winter. Would much rather be seeing looks similar to the 1957-1958, 1969-1969, 2002-2003 versus something along the like of a say 1997-1998 or 2015-2016. Obviously those were in the super category but the point is...the very early signs at least yield some encouragement TBH, if any of the early signs pointed to one of those years I'd probably just not even bother doing any digging for the upcoming winter lol

It's lifting north at a good pace now. I'm just breaking into sun as I type this as confirmed by the satellite image.

Thunderstorms and southwest winds before 18z on April 3 don’t fit the mold of sunrise to sunset mank. Clearing starts solidy once these t-showed roll through. Can see the sky clearing in Albany and southern VT with the drying air mixing in. It’s coming.

I noticed that Box stealthily removed mention of it "becoming M Sunny", and now simply describes the day as "M Cloudy".

The NAM guidance which is usually the most bearish —and correct—on setups like this continues to show sky clearing 18z. It’s not going to be everywhere but do think it materializes imby.

This wedge can go now.

42.3 1/4mi Visibility Rectal Plaque+

Winds coming around SSE now Still only 47

This, which doesn’t go back to the warmth of the 1950s/30s, was due to a combo of the extremeness of the pattern and GW with the extreme pattern superimposed on a warmer globe. In other words, had there been no GW the US still could have had their warmest month since the late 1970s but with not as warm temps. The extremeness of the pattern is seen well by considering how cold much of Canada and Alaska was with some of those areas having their coldest March on record (they would have been even colder with no GW):

Lol you work inside

Cold RA with 0.1" IP mixed in, currently (10 AM) very light RA and low 30s.

Yea, I mean.....I do think some of this is a byproduct of CC, but clearly many are embellishing the degree to which it factors in. We are also still in the declining phase of the solar cycle, which is not where you want to be for abundant NAO blocking, and it's going to be a long climb out of this Pac cold phase, so there are some additional lean times ahead. I'm not not convinced winter 2026-2027 will be one of them as of yet. Part of my rationale for looking at 1957 and 2002 is because they were in the descending phase of the solar cycle following an extended Pacific cold phase, during a +QBO/healthy El Nino.

All these early 70°+ and 80°+ days makes the average days for this time of year feel much colder than they really are especially with onshore flow and clouds.

Happy Good Friday. Enjoy the dank, damp and cool it’s the only April ya got.

Probably due to the lower local resolution when trying to show regional snowfall. It would be nice if they were able to develop a map with local zooming capability. These types of maps are nice for broad overviews but not necessarily great locally.

I'll go with B as well; did eke out one decent snow which is a win in these parts.

Had a little SHSN here before sunset too yesterday. Then just 32.1° and -RADZ the rest of the night.