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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Newman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1982-83 was a rough winter for the Dakotas regarding seasonal snowfall totals: Grand Forks ND: 16.9" of snow (31.5" below normal) Aberdeen SD: 18.9" of snow (23.8" below normal) Fargo ND: 23.2" of snow (28.2" below normal) Rapid City SD: 24.9" of snow (23.5" below normal) Bismarck ND: 32.2" of snow (18.3" below normal) International Falls MN: 46" of snow (26.9" below normal) However, some other places across the upper Midwest ended up near normal to even well above normal like Duluth, Minneapolis, Marquette, other portions of Wisconsin and UP Michigan. So it's important to remember that, even on these maps showing a blazing red torch across the upper Midwest, it's all relative to normal and it can still snow there. -
I have located something known as a "mid-latitude storm," with something called "snow," and "rain," around Denver. I haven't heard of these creatures for a long time.
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It’s been really dry upstream of there. We need some rain.
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Kevin the Terrible?
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The Wizards won again and held an opponent to under 100 points. Hmmm
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
FPizz replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
05/06 -15/16, 7 of those marches had 2" or less here with 5 having 0 snow. Other long stretches over the years have happened too if you look at hiatory.Its just plain dumb when people declare march snows have ended, no other way around it. -
Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
PolarWx has a history going back to 1958-59 https://www.polarwx.com/strat/#history -
https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2117313687887171752?a=Zg5oH9FXThn1Pewn078&s=46
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Today, Bridgeport, New York City (Central Park), and White Plains recorded highs of 66° and lows of 43°. Today is the first day on record that all three stations had identical high and low temperatures.
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Midwest Weather 3 hours ago · Another piece to the puzzle behind my high confidence in potential polar vortex impacts overpowering the strong El Niño pattern after the 20th of this month. We continue to see consistent signals for an extended period of negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) phases. The main thing currently fighting against this setup is the positive EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), which is allowing milder Pacific air to influence the pattern. However, around the 20th, that is expected to trend negative as well, driven by the ongoing Stratospheric Warming Event. This would put all three major teleconnections in favorable phases for Arctic air to spill into the Midwest and Northeast. The image on the left shows a classic negative AO/NAO/EPO pattern associated with a disrupted polar vortex, while the image on the right highlights the negative NAO teleconnection. Interesting times ahead! See less
- Today
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Unseasonable warmth will prevail through much of the first week of November. Parts of the region will likely reach or exceed 70° tomorrow through Thursday. Dry conditions will likely persist until late in the week. The potential exists for a 1.00" or greater rainfall Friday into Saturday. Behind the storm, cooler but not especially cold air will move into the region during the weekend or early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C. ENSO Region 1+2 breaks the all-time record while 3.4 ties the all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will peak either this month or December. The SOI was -17.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
A-L-E-K replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Coping via strawman, many such cases itt -
What about Jimmy the Greek?
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Meaning all the numbers are stuff we haven’t seen before. This Nino is a beast. At least the desert SW is getting rain. Maybe too much lol.
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The winter weather advisory needs to be retired. Means nothing to anyone
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My numbers for October 2026- Averaged high was 70.3 degrees vs anormal of 66.9 degrees, a +3.4 degrees above average. The warmest day was the 15th with a record breaking 84.3 degree reading. Averaged low was 43.4 degrees vs a normal of 41.5 degrees, a +1.9 degrees above average. The coldest temp recorded was 30.0 degrees on the 20th. Overall averaged temp was 56.9 degrees vs a normal of 54.2 degrees, a +2.7 degrees above average. Total precip was 4.48 inches vs a normal of 2.70 inches, a +1.78 inches above normal. Wettest day was the 11th with 2.18 inches falling. There was 9 days with measurable, one day with a 'T' and 21 dry days. No snow fell for the month vs the normal of 0.1 inches. Highest wind recorded was 32 mph on the 18th, with only 5 days with winds above 25 mph. Two new records, the 15th with the record high and the 16th with a new record 'warm minimum'. A warmer than normal month, and VERY dry month except for the two days (11&12th) where 3/4's of the monthly total fell.
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https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/2117434135144804833?a=SLXDiWhz3HLWLAIi0cY&s=46
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Weather underground pretty much Friday - Saturday. 50s and 30s there on after. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
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Picked up .33" today and yesterday.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Exactly. So someone arguing that global warming has ended March snowfall in NYC is just silly and shortsighted.
