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WB latest Euro weekly control....December will be rocking!

Looks like it going to be a very late first freeze for most of us.

0.11" here so far. Looking forward to some tor action this evening.

yeah, my early question was answered... 72 here. wow. DP's 49 ...not warm exactly but one can still sense a difference, seeing as it's been parchy as of late. I'm curious - btw - what the the GISS layout looks like for October due out here in another week. According to myth, legend ...and well, fact, October came in the warmest October, globally, that has ever occurred since it was determined that CC is an exaggerated hoax in a massive conspiracy ...while at the same time, apparently being actually true. interesting, and wow again... But of particular interest, we have something like 12 of the last 15 days with frost here.. I'm wondering if that meandering 'cooler relative to the whole' region that keeps showing up between Greenland and Indiana might have been situated over New England, because it definitely did come off as a very warm month here. Speculation -

There will be a lot of snow also in the higher elevations of the SE above 3500 feet. It snows in September here, we don’t need arctic air. .

0.43" the last 3 days, almost as much as all of October. Keep it going! (but not in SW Colorado)

makes sense then since I'm east. morning news said Friday would be a washout. guess that continues the seasonal trend of east of 95 getting the goods....

SPC has day 1 marginal risk out primarily for 5% damaging winds and 2% tornado for all of west tn and western portion of middle tn up to and along i65 corridor

Patience

What A FUCKING RIPOFF. Despite being a super hyper-awesome El Nino, we're in a ever-expanding drought. Models keep delaying the "sure to come" El Nino climatology in perpetuity. It's gonna be in September! No October! JK November! Nah it's actually gonna be December! Screw off

Depeands where you live. Better chance 95 east. Not much west of there.

He should open Ruthless Chris Steak House.

Zzzz

Pretty funny how this no snow winter is the one oddball year that didn't have a warm up at PHL.

Absolutely savagely ruthless...I always dread seeing any optimistic prose from you because I know the what nature of the follow up point will be.

The MN-CHI matchup to close out the season is going to be epic! Have a feeling that final game could decide the division!

I agree with your post 100% except that I would substitute 4-7 weeks for your 2-5 weeks for this early in the season per @Stormchaserchuck1if it is going to occur. So, a map at 330 hours is irrelevant. Often the initial 3 week period is actually warm.

Southeast Forum says the STJ is waking up soon.

Had a half inch here. Next batch currently moving in. Expecting another 1-2" by Thursday. Woke to a balmy 57 this morning. Currently sitting @ 60.... average 43/29.

Calling the game during batting practice.

A SPV disruption would not affect the troposphere that fast anyway. Usually 2-5 weeks...IF, IF, IF it downdwells into the troposphere. I have doubts of much affect.

I really can't get over just how nice these past few weeks have been. Today and the next 2 days after are more than anyone could ask for honestly. Then after that we finally get some rain which we really need

The big warm signal for this winter was beginning to be outlined as early as last spring when we were getting the first hints at how historic this super El Niño was going to become. I agree that over shorter one week to 10 day periods throughout an entire 3 month winter season there can be some variation from the seasonal primary temperature departure pattern. But the one shorter term temperature pattern that has become very reliable has been the warm up from around December 17th to 25th which has occurred every year since 2011 from Philly to NYC. Many times the longer term models from early in December miss this warm up. So the closer to forecast time we get the models correct warmer. Max Temp Time Series 12-17 to 12-25 Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 61 0 2024-12-25 63 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 59 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 65 0 2019-12-25 52 0 2018-12-25 65 0 2017-12-25 61 0 2016-12-25 60 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 65 0 2013-12-25 68 0 2012-12-25 60 0 2011-12-25 63 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 58 0 2024-12-25 59 0 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-12-25 59 0 2024-12-25 61 0 2023-12-25 64 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 62 0 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0