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Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West.

Yeah SSTs really drop off with northward extent and models don't seem to hang this over the Gulf Stream very long so I am shocked at how long guidance is maintaining this as a warm core system. Like Scott said this morning though, it terms of sensible weather this has really has very little impact on the sensible weather side of things. Maybe one thing it influences is the overall strength of the LLJ. If you're able to maintain a 70-75 knot LLJ and push that to the coast...would be some problems

My mom's heading back to Boston Saturday night on her cruise, should be a fun ride!

For perspective iirc 1962 was roughly 60-72 hrs of stall/wobble. We saw what those prolonged / sustained ENE winds did.

UKIE is pretty far east, and while it does bring some rain eventually (as the storm retrograde SW) at that point it's largely occluded and winds throughout are very meh.

Fake fall, then back to summah for a bit then fake winter (aka Movember), then real “fall” for 3-4 months and back to dewin it up again thereafter. Embrace the madness!

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are 1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here.

When are people going to acknowledge and accept that the Euro suite handles the really big coastals better than any other. GFS is garbage. Ryan's station downplaying rain has me wondering if they are missing something

GFS has widespread gusts (mph) +50 for most of SE MA coastline +60 out on Cape +70 possible out on Nantucket

Im going to go ahead and say it....*IF* the Euro, and the NAM particularly have the right idea, this will be top 3 storm for NJ. 1 of course Sandy which most of us will never see again in our lifetimes, 2 being Ash Wednesday 1962. This could easily be #3. Just my wag attm based solely on NAM/Euro combo

Coastal baby

There seems to be a trend to keep this warm core much longer and a slower occlusion. Very curious what the Euro is like

Cmc run puts out 2-5 inches of rain Nassau and Suffolk County roughly speaking.

First frost advisories up for the mountains/valleys west. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 MDZ509-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-250000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0007.260925T0500Z-260925T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Wilsonia, Mill Gap, Mountain Lake Park, Hightown, Bayard, Oakland, Beechwood, New Hampden, and Riverton 1153 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Western Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. National Weather Service Charleston WV 1204 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 WVZ523-526-250015- /O.NEW.KRLX.FR.Y.0010.260925T0500Z-260925T1300Z/ Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Snowshoe and Harman 1204 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. National Weather Service Charleston WV 1204 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 WVZ523-526-250015- /O.NEW.KRLX.FR.Y.0010.260925T0500Z-260925T1300Z/ Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Snowshoe and Harman 1204 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

You're married already?

There is a reason the joke during svr season it is the "Supercell Printer" Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Posting this for the graphic, not endorsing the text.

Thinking 10-15 G25 with 1-1.5" rain up this way

The current one - no. They are already working on a revised version that will be more accurate. RRFS was supposed to replace HRRR but was never able to get there due to using the same FV3 core as new GFS, which also has not performed well.

DT

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far.

Lord knows they need it there!

There may be two local max areas within the region. Even some of these heftier models with rainfall totals, I'm a little worried they may be underdone. You get a scenario where that mlvl warm front sits over the region and you push the llvl warm front or sfc front towards the coast and there is going to be some substantial rainfall totals and the rainfall rates will be quite intense. Flooding could end up pretty significant