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1.07 beneficial rainfall from the event. Monthly total is now 2.58

A disappointing 0.11” for 8/16 imby/Columbia. 2.22” for August thru 8/16.

1.15" of rain total. .22" of that since midnight.

Another boring and lame event here in mby. What's up with the horrible forecast this season. Every single one of these events has failed this season. My forecast was for up to 2". I got .12

63/62 .32 in the high terrain. Took a trip to Tanglewood yesterday, as expected, a few raindrops caused some of the lawn crowd to flee for the cars, not the bravest group of people you will ever see. This weekend looks like it has potential.

I don't think area burned is telling you much about CC; because, non-CC human factors are driving the long-term trends. Per Our World in Data, the vast majority of wildfires occur in grassland and savanna in the sub-tropics and tropics, roughly 50% in Africa. Forest burning is a small portion of area burned in all regions. Our World in Data cites a Science paper that attributes the long-term decrease in area burned to the spread and intensification of agriculture. In Europe and North America, reduction in cropland burned is another important long-term trend. Have to look at other stats to see the effect of climate change. The blog I linked makes the point that the intensity of the largest fires is increasing due to climate change. Big, intense fires are the most problematic but aren't well captured by the area burned stats. Here's a recent paper that finds that a small number of extreme fires are having an out-sized impact on the forest ecosystem in western and boreal North America. https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aeg5802

66°/64° and 0.03 in the bucket. Tropical morning.

Convergence will be almost non existent but a weak front approaching at peak heating should be enough to encourage at least some convective activity late this afternoon and early tonight. Charleston West Virginia experienced some flooding with 4.08" Sunday. My .71" was the most since July 4!

68 degrees this morning Picked up .32” of rain yesterday.

August 2026 in a nutshell: Here, 1.29" more of rain now puts us at 7.85" for the month so far, now currently the 3rd wettest August on record. Top 10 Wettest Augusts (KDAY)1. 8.03" - 19742. 7.95" - 19793. 7.85" - 2026 (as of 8/16) 4. 7.54" - 19955. 6.98" - 19786. 6.64" - 19127. 6.59" - 1926 8. 6.42" - 19829. 6.40" - 200110. 5.56" - 1906

That’s bizarre. My PWS has recorded almost 4” in just the last 10 days (a good chunk of it from 2.71” on August 9)

We actually managed a low of 39.9 at home last night - first 30s since June 10

First GFS Fantasy Land - not gonna happen hurricane near us that I can recall this year lol

Had a very small cell move through Gastonia that laid down some heavy rain.

I was monitoring this storm. Baseball sized hail was also reported. The radar returns were like nothing I've ever seen.

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 954 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 08/14/26 Charlottesville Thunderstorm Wind Event... .Charlottesville, VA Thunderstorm Wind Event... Peak Wind /E/: 90 mph Path Length /statute/: 2.4 miles Path Width /maximum/: 1.4 miles Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: Aug 14, 2026 Start Time: 5:33 PM EDT Start Location: Greenbrier Community / Charlottesville / VA Start Lat/Lon: 38.065 / -78.481 End Date: Aug 14, 2026 End Time: 5:42 PM EDT End Location: Darden Towe Park / Charlottesville / VA End Lat/Lon: 38.041 / -78.448 Survey Summary: On the evening of August 14th, 2026, a powerful thunderstorm began to develop over southeastern Rockingham County out of a cluster of otherwise innocuous showers. The storm would rapidly intensify into a powerful supercell thunderstorm before reaching the Blue Ridge. As the storm crossed into northwestern Albermarle county, particularly around Free Union, the storm would go through a period of weakening as it approached Charlottesville. Just prior to arrival, the supercell thunderstorm went through another cycle of strengthening, making the storm much more intense than it had been earlier. The storm reached it`s peak intensity as it moved across the north side of Charlottesville. It was at this point in the storms life cycle where it started to drop damaging hail and very strong wind gusts under the forward- flank downdraft of the storm. This is where a majority of damage reports were, with numerous trees and powerlines down between the Greenbrier and Locust Grove neighborhoods and continuing into Darden Towe Park. Ground photos and video, paired with drone photos of the aftermath showed a vast majority of this damage occurring in the southeast direction. This is consistent with a damaging straight line wind event, which occurred over roughly a three square mile area. In this area there were numerous snapped and uprooted trees, several of which fell onto structures and/or powerlines. Additionally, there were a few locations with some structural damage, but those few instances could easily occur with this level of straight line wind damage. The damage lacked any true linear continuity overall, but was moreso in several north-to-south swaths. Additionally, this area had measured hailstones in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. At this time, when paired with radar presentation, this would reinforce the thinking that this damage likely occurred under a microburst within the forward flank downdraft region of this powerful supercell thunderstorm. However, the National Weather Service will be sending a storm damage team to further investigate early this coming week. It is important to note that severe thunderstorms are capable of producing wind gusts equal to EF0 and EF1 tornadoes in extreme cases. The National Weather Service would like to thank Albemarle County Department of Emergency Management, City of Charlottesville Emergency Management, the University of Virginia, as well as local reports via social media and local broadcast meteorologists for the invaluable information provided to this survey.

It usually runs way too high on radar estimates versus actual ground truths especially on convective precip ....

1.65" total from the 4-day period here (none today). Yesterday we received less than 0.2" from the storm that produced over an inch and a half just 2 miles from here. There was a lot of mud and rocks up to fist size on the paved Cherry Creek bike trail just north of the dam this morning, and plenty of standing water east and north of the campground. The creek itself looked like it stayed within its banks in the area, though.

Question of the night: Will Chicago (ORD) log another 90°+ day this year?

Well, I now live in a rather dry part of the country, near Austin, TX. I have been down here since Aug 26, 2018. It's been 8 years. I am REALLY looking forward to any extra rain that the record Nino can give us, and I KNOW that the Southeastern US is gonna get waterworlded BAD by this enso event. DMV Region, too. I think that there will be a few times this winter when extreme moisture in the DC region will meet up with Arctic air and they could see some new snow records get set. You live in the DC area, might want to stock up on food, beer, hundreds of your favorite IPA's, salt, shovels and snowblowers. Just in case.....

For us on the urban N MA coastal plane …… it is/does ….. as always …..

Sitting at 0.94” here in Lebanon for the day .

Do you have a link for that product or is it paywall?

That looks like a much more active east past pattern this year.

Just missed the heart of that big cell going from Charles into southern Calvert and St Mary's, but it is fun watching all the lightning from my south-facing screened porch. I got 0.2 so the day isn't a total bust. I just got that Raindrop app and I have to say it was way off with this. It says 0.51 for my spot and my gauge only has 0.2. Hope it wasn't a waste of money