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Rain Saturday night was an Easter miracle. I don't see much more for a couple weeks. Might be able to get some quality precip late April but delays would not surprise me. Gotta chip away at what will become a significant SER and Mid-Atlantic ridge. Then getting into May (note weeks 3-5 are notoriously awful forecasts) charts show WNW flow and only normal precip. Meh. Weeks 3-5 are considered the un-sweet forecast range beyond daily extended forecasting yet not covered by reliable seasonal signals. Hope for all our yards is El Nino signal kicks in quickly in June. Normal heights and seasonable moisture would open the door for summer thundershowers. We'll see if / how the drought impacts dewpoints though.

60.2/17 Bone dry

Memphis Pyramid Effect.. or the Great Wall of the Mississippi River.. or a stubborn Southeast Ridge. My chips are on the latter. Frustrating!

First time since October I don't see an arctic airmass moving southeast in the long range. Seriously.

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:

59 for high it seems. S wind increasing.

81 and brisket-y here outside Dallas.

Too easy

I just hope the Euro Ai is correct and not the GFS. The GFS rainfall is dramatically different and much drier.

I’m currently thinking the under on the NS and H forecast.

CSU is out with its first forecast for the upcoming season, which will be here before you know it. With a Super Niño on the table and the current SST distribution in the Atlantic, I’m strongly bearish on the upcoming season. Last season was the first in quite sometime without a major U.S. landfall. We will see if there is a chase opportunity this year. I take the under currently with the NS and H projections above.

Sounds great.

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

Middle patuxent is really nice, more of a true hiking place with non-paved trails. Great birdwatching as well the next 8 weeks or so.

He busted badly in March-called for big pattern we got the opposite outside of a couple cold days

i'll leave the thread to one of the real severe heads but western portions of the sub especially look to be locking into a nice period

models very dry into next week-all the moisture well north and west of us

Thanks for the tips! I'm looking at the association pathways map now. I had not grasped how much there is. Checking out these trails could keep me busy haha. First glance, the ones near the golf club(s) and Middle Patuxent Env Area look interesting...Patuxent Branch Trail does too. Def have to get to Centennial, I think that one's mandatory.

Inland valleys FTW. I love living in one of the hottest places in all of New England during the summer.

Inland blows in mid Summer

Interesting... I woulda thunk you'd be SE and putting a sweater on by this hour. Holding in at S wind tho

Expect the opposite https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/2042215879899856921?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Well I don’t even have to say that lol. 55 and sunny. Nice to have a S wind vs onshore at the beaches.