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As if this isn’t already complex and confusing enough.. if the NAM projection came to fruition and the storm slowed way down and then phased later on would that technically be better for the area because the cold air may become entrenched even more?

chicago area radar

I don’t get paid to do this, but that map says (and has said) to me that suppression/sheared is still the more likely outcome. But if it cuts to Detroit, then I was just kidding.

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one. By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

yeah the differences between 18z and now out west are pretty evident with that s/w

We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.

ULL further west on 0z NAM. Could be good here...

@Santa Claus where you at? Why aren’t you out there sampling with your sleigh?

To be fair to the Canuk (no wishcasting here ) in general this winter inside of 7 days it has been the most stubborn (and drier) in the medium range. I know with the November and early Dec snows it performed rather well (especially the Nov systems along with the UKIE) inside 7 days with much less windshield wiping. Now, it has tended to give EVERYONE as much snow as possible, but hey, it's Canadian so it's nice. I'm riding it like I stole it!

We just need a partial phase not full. Grab some of the sw energy but trail some behind as well.

I'm waiting for the first "That's a big ass dry slot" comment

Dogfish 90 minute IPA

Some show a 2nd blizzard next weekend. As do some ensembles

True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore.

39 now

Just stating what the models show attm.

That heavy band heading northeast looks good

Oh no. Hope you feel better soon.

Thanks! .

I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat

And today's runs are still not as extreme of a difference as the Euro went from yesterday morning to this morning.

Yeh and I’d still be fine with that. .

We had a few high ratio clippers in the old days

Another bust on guidance here, been snowing decently for 3 hours.. almost an inch.. nothing really had measurable here

The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.