All Activity

I mean...is there any evidence fo suggest that low doesn't park there like that?

Yeah it was a little breezy locally. I was out with the chickens for over an hour and the cold was cutting through the hoodie. Nothing too brutal…but we’re starting to combine wind with the chill at this point in the season. I do see a lot of calm METARs out there now.

Temperatures will continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Monday could be the warmest day with highs in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Dry conditions are likely through at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

48.3/29 Smells like a 34-35 type low

Going to be beautiful.

Currently 45° and getting ready to go play ball at 830.

Brisk like with wind? Dead calm here and radiating already at 37F.

Yeah the 55 degree days today felt way colder than a few weeks ago 55 defree

I probably respect your thoughts, ideas and opinions on winter weather patterns more than just about anyone on the entire forum. Please consider coming back in here and sharing that. But leave this for the dedicated thread.

That post was about ENSO.

This is absolutely fair...all I ask.

Kinda brisk out there 44.6/28

Another amazing day, I felt warm even tho it was 16C/62F for a high. WUN removed the rain although I doubt I'll get through the rest of Oct without.

Has this NINO not actually peaked?To much going against it right now to get stronger.Some strange PDO along right now along with the MJO into the IO which should have some effect by the Bjerknes effect.While these might spawn sorta speaking Kelvin waves,more than likely would seem to be upwelling not down.It would seemingly cause more mixing not strenghting.Impressive NINO regardless

My dad took me there the first time back in 1985. I have only been there 3 other times and last year was the most recent. I have only skied to the base of the gondola once and that was when it went to the top. Skied Jugernaut which is no longer with us. A good place to stay for a few days if you want different terrain, but I only went last year because someone was kind enough to give us a couple of passes for me and my boy. I will say the relatively new K1 lodge is pretty good.

2007 (with Dean and Felix) probably holds the record for the 2 biggest storms making up the highest percentage of a season's ACE.

Yup, get me through Halloween then we can head on to fall/winter

Euro op verbatim actually had a SSW wind reversal at 12z. That's an outlier, obviously needs to be tossed. There's been no support for that. Weird set of runs at 12z though. It's strange to me seeing the EPS more bullish than the GEFS in the strat... Usually it's the opposite. Euro AI is more like American guidance, but I don't know how well the Euro AI handles the strat either. Will be interesting to see which idea is more correct. It's crazy early to be just considering any of that too but here we are.

Stick season.

Happy Friday! In the past I used to have some folks even here on Americanwx suggest my East Nantmeal Davis VP2 runs too cool (some here used to say the East Nantmeal Icebox etc.) thinking I might have a siting or equipment issue, I ran the numbers. I would welcome any pushback on the method or the results. I used only stations that report on a midnight to midnight day, so morning and evening COOP observation times do not skew the comparison. That gives 20 Chester County Area stations: the DEOS network, KPTW, KMQS, KOQN and the Avondale 2N Climate Reference Network site. Against Avondale USCRN, the best reference we have, over 7,198 days with data from both stations (2007 to now), my highs run 1.4 degrees cooler and my lows run 1.4 degrees warmer. The average difference is +0.01 degrees. That is the classic upland elevation based signature at 678 FT: cooler afternoons, and milder nights as cold air drains off the hill. A poorly sited station usually shows the opposite, with cold nights in a frost hollow or cool afternoons only on sunny days from shade. Across the full network since 2012 my average is 0.68 degrees below the network mean. The USCRN site is 0.63 below, and Warwick DEOS, my nearest neighbor, is 0.56 below. Daily highs line up with elevation at about 5 degrees per 1,000 ft. Mine sit 0.7 degrees below that line, about where the other aspirated sensors (USCRN and the KPTW ASOS) also sit. A cheap passive-shield station on a pole right next to my Davis reads highs 3 degrees warmer, and 3.3 degrees warmer on sunny days. Most backyard stations people compare against use passive shields, so an aspirated sensor will usually look cool next to them in the afternoon. Let me know if any questions or if you see anything that does not hold up (see detail below) as I have always strived to show the most accurate possible data for the climate here in good old Chesco!

Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota (Population 9,477) has been on a recent streak of warm Septembers. 2026 - 65.3F (12th warmest) 2025 - 65.6F (9th warmest) 2024 - 67.7F (warmest) 2023 - 66.3F (5th warmest) 2022 - 64.0F (22nd warmest) 2021 - 64.8F (14th warmest) The most recent September to fall below the 20th century average was September 2020, at 60.6F (62nd coolest)

Happy Friday! In the past I used to have some folks even here on Americanwx suggest my East Nantmeal Davis VP2 runs too cool (some here used to say the East Nantmeal Icebox etc.) thinking I might have a siting or equipment issue, I ran the numbers. I would welcome any pushback on the method or the results. I used only stations that report on a midnight to midnight day, so morning and evening COOP observation times do not skew the comparison. That gives 20 Chester County Area stations: the DEOS network, KPTW, KMQS, KOQN and the Avondale 2N Climate Reference Network site. Against Avondale USCRN, the best reference we have, over 7,198 days with data from both stations (2007 to now), my highs run 1.4 degrees cooler and my lows run 1.4 degrees warmer. The average difference is +0.01 degrees. That is the classic upland elevation based signature at 678 FT: cooler afternoons, and milder nights as cold air drains off the hill. A poorly sited station usually shows the opposite, with cold nights in a frost hollow or cool afternoons only on sunny days from shade. Across the full network since 2012 my average is 0.68 degrees below the network mean. The USCRN site is 0.63 below, and Warwick DEOS, my nearest neighbor, is 0.56 below. Daily highs line up with elevation at about 5 degrees per 1,000 ft. Mine sit 0.7 degrees below that line, about where the other aspirated sensors (USCRN and the KPTW ASOS) also sit. A cheap passive-shield station on a pole right next to my Davis reads highs 3 degrees warmer, and 3.3 degrees warmer on sunny days. Most backyard stations people compare against use passive shields, so an aspirated sensor will usually look cool next to them in the afternoon. Let me know if any questions or if you see anything that does not hold up (see detail below) as I have always strived to show the most accurate possible data for the climate here in good old Chesco!