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Stupid Wankum...claiming ratios are decided by surface temps.

lol well that would be something. 7" snow to 2.5" sleet then .5" ZR? lol

LOL, sounds like my workplace. Last 14 years I was there I worked a 'temp 6 month changeover' going from a DOS system (yes, in 2009) to not one, but two systems that DID NOT communicate with each other (mainly because financial side wanted to 'see' everything and the actual machine/field side thought that system was too complicated). An interface was built to do the hand-offs, but it NEVER worked right and was a pure disaster at the first location down in Texas when we went down to put it online. That '6 month project' I rode out on until I retired, it did get slightly better the last 3 years, but wow. The 'savings' claimed by the folks that came up with that cost each location a minimum of four new people/positions to babysit and fix the errors/failures.

Expect nothing and it's all a gift. That's what life and weather has taught me.

I'm just along for the ride. It's just been fun having something to track. Models have their biases. In this type of situation though, you'll usually have steadier snow from persistent lift and then you'll have bands of snow with heavier amounts depending on where the various boundaries set up. For the WAA snows, if you look at the 850 MB and 700 MB temp advection maps you can see where the heavier snow sets up north of the strongest advection. It goes absolutely crazy on the NAM so that's probably why the higher amounts. The GFS/GDPS has this setup farther south and it isn't as strong. The vertical velocity will show the areas with persistent lift.

Yea I mentioned that earlier

Thats 1" more precip than the Euro in some spots.

That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well.

Still adds another 3-4 inches in far eastern areas after 12z, with around .2 qpf, with ratios.

1/23 00z UKIE running

The sleet will be on top of 8-12” of snow and on at the base so yes will be heavier to shovel but all good.

More sleet and snow. Those rates before the transition could be insane (3-4"/hr)

Here's what I'm thinking. In the upper levels, any difference in temperature can make a huge difference at the surface. A bust -0.25*C cold is probably an extra hour of snow before a flip to mixing, which is an extra 1-2". In these overrunning CAD setups it's harder to predict the upper level temps. There's more risk for those forecasts to bust.

WB 0Z Can.

Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump.

The trends are pretty clear and it's not colder. This might not be done trending yet

Life is a boxful of chocolates

I was reading today that WPC is tossing the UKie for the way it has the trough.

All of SNE / CNE crushed.

From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling!

Sounds miserable.

We can hope to dry slot at the end

You,Wmspt (in Huntingdon) up to Nepa/mahantango/voyager look to be in cat bird seat IMO. Thermally safe, and prob a bit of lift to help bump yas into the hi end accums. Pullin for yas while I take my 13.9 at MDT to da bank.

Snow amounts haven't changed much in the 0z suite but the QPF has gone up so it's a lot more sleet. 6-10" of snow and a crapload of sleet is going to create skating rinks all over the tri-state with a frigid week following it. It's going to be treacherous