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36 right now and a light coat of frost on car tops this early morning.

See attachment It is said that for ML models, the equations of motion and thermodynamics are not satisfied, so that is going to lead to unrealistic output and egregious errors at times. Not that physics-based models are immune to these same problems, but we often know why they occur due to the limitations of simulating the atmosphere best, as one example. For ML models, does that same apply? That is, would we be able to detect why they are wrong for a given forecast? How far do ML models not satisfying equations go? For instance, Navier-Stokes? The paper states: "New forecast methods based on statistical estimation, including neural networks and ML, are neither designed nor constrained to yield dynamically coherent, physically consistent evolutions of the atmosphere." The above would appear to be a huge problem. The paper also discusses ML models lacking in resolution detail, and give a more broad overview. That's fine within itself, but modeling has come so far, getting the broad strokes right as to what is going on, say synoptically, is no longer an issue. What matters most now are the details and fine-tuning on a more local level and shorter time frames in weather forecasting. That's what the public/partners want and demand. How vulnerable are ML models to chaos theory? More or less than physics-based? Another item suggested in the paper, it seems that ML models can not exist or do well/improve without physics-based models. This would ask the question, how much of a statistical database of weather history/analogs do we need for an ML model to perform better? bams-BAMS-D-25-0214.1.pdf

Currently 39 under the deck...35.2 at the PWS just up the road. Wife and I were going to wait going into frost mode until tonight but we may be a day too late as most garden plants uncovered. I just came back in from bringing our pineapple plants inside as a preventative measure. Brought my Meyer's lemon tree inside Saturday night to avoid the rush tonight. Gardening with North Carolina weather is so much fun.

Snow weenies rejoice! GFS V17 goes from 13 to 9 km for horizontal resolution in Oct. Scott counting the days now for the first day of meteorological winter! LOL. pns26-29_Science_for_GFSv17.pdf

Pretty pic Mark. While it’s not Aruba, It was 90 here Thursday lol….sleet and rain at 4:30 pm and it was 39.

0.11 inches of rain today. Better than 0, but still need way more than that!

That right there is most certainly preferable.

I’ll take the over on a freeze for DC/Alexandria

.46" for my total. Things have greened up fast the past few days

I don’t feel like I’m missing out.

Only M0.11" RSTM2 COOP site. Didn't even get under the cars wet. To further illustrate how dry things have been, the Thurmont mesonet site recorded almost 0.4" of rain today, but the four inch soil moisture probe hasn't budged.

A strong nino is likely a 3 week winter like 15-16-hopefully with a big blizzard in there

Yeah. There was pure snow, actual snowflakes not pellets or graupel type stuff earlier today with mid 40s. It would drop to the 30s with the heavier bursts but was mid 40s at the start.

Why does this happen when you open a SPC graphics file on your computer?

He’ll lose shrubs and limbs tomorrow night from 5” of paste from the NOR. Normally one of the worst places to live in spring on the E MA coast with cold ocean but tomorrow the one time we want to be there

There have been some healthy squalls moving through. This is the final round for us. Three decent bursts dropping through BTV’s core area from ADK to I-89 corridor in VT during the past two hours.

One last chance this season for it to look "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" out there!

SE MA OES in later April? "Unprecedented!" CoastalWx will be out during overnight shaving off every tenth of an inch for max total snow! NORLUN apparent. I like the -31 C at 500 and -10 at 850 and the axis of the 500 trough right overhead.

Tap tap… tap tap tap. Tap tap ?

Early May?

Instant PT?

From my contact in Woburn, 5 days w/ thunder this month now. 5 TS days is pretty good. That's what normal in July this area. CoastalWx still MEH though I bet!

31.7° and clear…glad I got the plants in early.

I was bit by a few mosquitoes the other day. They must be extra cold hardy up here. I’ve already had 3 ticks, but only one biting and it couldn’t have been on for that long.