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I can pull composites like these pretty quickly again now that I have my weighted analog system back, with he full package of predictors (ENSO, AMO, Solar, Modoki, PDO, ENSO prior yr, and monsoon rain for high/ridge positioning over the deserts). I took out 1997 because it was further along, but it only dulls the warmth a bit and you still have the general look.

Some of you are probably wondering how I ended up with my blend of 1963, 1982, 1997, 2004, 2015, 2018. If you look at Apr-Jun unweighted, its actually a very close match to 2026 for Apr-Jun, although running about 2F too cold in warm areas, in part because of how strong this event is, and how much warming has gone on since ~1995 the analog center point for time. You just have to make the north a bit colder, south warmer, and then the gradients are a bit more extreme.

This is BIG. Ravens have the makings of a dominant defense but getting this guy back healthy would be insane and open up more opportunities for some of the younger pass rushers to make an impact.

It wasn’t done at 84hr on the models, but I don’t like the system getting shunted southward as it gets toward this longitude either. Rain will pinwheel around and pivot in, but we’re flirting with mid level dry air in some of these runs. The 18z euro suite is pretty wet up into NNE.

SPC just upgraded middle TN and west TN in slight risk with I’m guessing 30 wind now or 15 percent wind also severe thunderstorm watch issued .

Canada should tariff us or make us the 11th province

Juice

Can we put tariffs on a state?

18z is wet for most

61° already. Another night in the lower 50s by the looks. Good thing with energy prices as they are.

lol by the end of the week most will have it.. I'll share Edit.. the green spec is west of me not by much though

Might be a coincidence because QBO is a Stratosphere index, but +QBO/El Nino has the highest correlated above average Dec I have ever seen. We are going to be strong in both signal this year.

It's fundamentally how he/they evaluate positional talent and draft that's flawed. The Elias way is arrogant- he thinks he has all the answers and needs no input from others with different perspectives. They end up with many similar players that mostly all underachieve. Another major flaw is not properly assessing/drafting top pitching talent. Emphasis is on metrics and not so much on scouting/actual evaluation- the eye test.

It was 100 all across the area today. It's pretty rare.

Rank Year Overall Match Reason 1 1997–98 Best Strongest blend of rapid onset, strong SOI/MEI coupling, Niño 3.4 surge, and eastern-Pacific warmth 2 2015–16 Very High Strong basinwide/very strong El Niño analog; excellent intensity match 3 1982–83 High Major historical El Niño; slightly slower early-summer SST match but excellent peak analog 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-High Good recent transition/eastern-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling/intensity than 2026 appears headed 6 1957–58 Moderate-High Strong El Niño year; useful secondary analog 7 1991–92 Moderate Decent atmospheric/coupled analog, but weaker structure 8 2002–03 Moderate Developing El Niño analog, but less intense 9 1965–66 Moderate Useful older warm-event analog with eastern-Pacific elements 10 2009–10 Lower-Moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development

Maybe someone was in there pruning :-) If it could only stay like that for the other 125 days in the warm months rather than veering 2-5 (7) lower.

love how this tiny spec of green gets right to where ineedsnow is

This enso is closer match to 2015 / 1997 - August will be interesting to see 2015 very warm/hot/ dry, 1997 cool/ drier. EWR: Monthly ; Dep ; Rain 2026: May: 64.5 ; +1.2 ; 2.43 June: 72.8 ; +2.4 ; 2.52 Jul: Aug: 1997: May: 59.2 ; -4.1; 3.12 June: 71 ; -1.8 ; 2.42 Jul: 76.8; -1.4 ; 7.05 Aug: 73.6 ; -2.8 ; 2.89 Sep: 66.9 ; -2.3 ; 2.12 Oct: 56.5; -1 ; 2.02 2015: May: 68.2; +4.9 ; 4.94 Jun: 72 ; -0.8; 5.9 Jul: 79; +0.8 ; 2.69 Aug: 78.7 ; +2.3 ; 1.4 Sep: 74.3 ; +4.2 ; 2.33 Oct: 57.2 ; -0.3 ; 3.72

No nyc temp crying the past few days when they were the same or on the higher end of the area. I guess there is only an issue "certain" cherry picked days.

Hottest ever summer lolz!

Had a great day here of 29C/84F started overcast here too then it broke at 130pm. No rain or storms as shown by some - I think smoke is moving in this eve that was a close call! I was forest bathing and breathing in deeply after that nightmare 2 weeks ago.

I have heard that place is very good! Other half is picky, so haven't been. We ended up going in the afternoon after the clouds cleared out. Went to Roosevelt inlet around 3. Was nice, only a few Jellyfish

beers

S tier afternoon float