All Activity

we got to score this week

I can guarantee you this will be a miserable spring. The cold ocean is enough, especially out here. Long island wont hit 80 until June unless we get a heat blast from the W/NW. Over the top heat wont even do it this year.

Yore nice picture by the way

Looks pretty good for most. Seems like a solid 1-3" down here.

I know some are conditional when it comes to winter wx, but I've thoroughly enjoyed the cold. Kind of hate I missed the -20 up at WXW2 but at least I had the other one. For down here it's pretty crazy to have as many below zero days as I've had, and not all were radiational nights. I've had 5 below zero lows since 1/23, and an additional 10 days with lows below 10.0. I've never seen the Connecticut River this iced over.

New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward.

GfsAI a little further south than 12z . Temps ever so slightly cooler because it's a touch south. Probably not snow south of MD/PA line and dubious imby verbatim as well.

Looks good in my area from what I saw, although I didn't actually measure.

I’m not worried about sfc temps for most…it’s the midlevels. But still a ping ways out. A whiff south is still a concern.

there's no greenland bock there-it's way east-scandinavian block

Nah, that’s a MECS. A HECS would be 18” or more region wide.

There it is: IN THE EVENT PRECIP DOES EXPAND WELL NORTH INTO THE AREA, ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN PLAY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A NORTHERLY TREND IN THIS SYSTEM WOULD INTRODUCE MORE POPS TO THE AREA, WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF WINTRY WEATHER.

Me too….get it

This a general post about the pattern going forward and 2 potential windows to keep an eye on for a storm. First the period around the 20th. The advertised pattern progression is a bit delayed compared to guidance a few days ago. Here we see the PAC ridge extending northward from an unfavorable position into the WPO domain. This timeframe still holds some potential for a storm but not looking as strong as it was a few days ago. As of now areas to our north are favored for winter precip. Anomalously cold air is starting to build into NW Canada. A few days later we have a -WPO with a mechanism to deliver colder air into our nearby source region and then southeastward into the NE and MA.. The trough out west is weaker and progressing eastward. The NA looks favorable with a -NAO and 50-50 low, and there is a flat/suppressed SE ridge. You can optimistically visualize a storm track just to our south. This is pretty far out but there is an indication of a storm on the mean- looks like a miller B but ofc this is highly subject to change at this juncture. The surface look up top is pretty damn good for a LR mean, indicating HP to the NW and LP to the NE.

Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution.

How much wind tho?

When I think of blocking in March I think of 2013. Obviously results will vary based off PNA.

Told em

Far and away it’s been the best model this winter. It nailed that midweek snow event a few days prior to the big storm and several others in terms of placement

Let’s snow

Scoots lives S Wey so may be a bit different than Wey

March 2012 for reference

normally I’d look at the setup and say rain, but how cold the ocean temps are right now could help us (east winds not the death sentence they often are in these setups for the coast). If the low goes inland it will rain regardless, but I think we have more room for error than usual in these setups due to it being mid Feb + the unusually cold ocean temps.

Cloudy all day but the sun was out first thing in the morning, making the snow glisten.

Bad start for da charts