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https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/weather/hurricane-isaias-ai-models-google

That's a good point, forky. I'd forgotten about the 30 years of warming on top of what is a very strong Nino event.

Down to 39F this am, off a low of 51F yesterday and 32F the day before…

Is se Ridge even a thing in Nino?

Rainfall timing continues to focus during the day on Sunday before tapering off Sunday night into early Monday/Columbus Day. Total rainfall amounts are generally forecast in the 0.50-1.50 inch range over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. Wind gusts 35-40 mph are possible over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday. && Taken from NHC tropical discussion. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or 260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to 32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

36 degrees this morning. Canderson how's the shoulder? Let the therapist torture you now.. Hope you have a speedy recovery.

Announced yesterday that Gameday will be inside. The game itself will probably be dry, oh well.

It would be nice to get this storm and moisture on January.

Isaias nearing Major Hurricane status per the NHC 5 AM advisory. They discussed some concerns on when strengthening wind shear actually begin to impact the cyclone. A 6 hour delay on the onset of shear could bring a Major Hurricane landfall near Pensacola/ Ft Walton Beach area late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Local impacts forecast has increased rainfall amounts along the Escarpment and winds may be higher in the Mountains than what GSP mentioned yesterday. GSP in their morning disco mentioned that a Flood Watch might be needed later today. Also, there is a possibility of Wind Advisory tomorrow morning for the Mountains.

Dry slotted.

Good lord...they finally got their hurricane. I hope it's really progressive and doesn't cause too much damage or flooding.

Well well well...you're down to youre last spin at the slot machine and all red 7s land on the payline Better late than never..you guys finally got the hurricane many of you were gunning for all season. Congrats. Hopefully the storm doesn't negatively impact too many lives and livelihoods.

So far, a complete coup for Google DeepMind

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 26.4°N 88.0°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

Satellite continues to improve, and we have a warming clear eye now. Category 3 is looking much more likely. If they don't pull the trigger in the 4AM CDT package, they probably will later with an intermediate advisory.

This was a great read. Thank you for the indepth intelligent and fact based response. I am of very ordinarily intellect, just always fascinated by weather but these videos are getting out of control.

While severe is possible over the northern and central half later next week (esp. with the PNA heading back into + phase), the bigger story is looking to be Fall coming back with a nice bang over the entire state. With substantially below normal temps next weekend (Oct 17th - 18th). AI/IFS models have been trending colder (now into the 30s), on Sunday morning's lows. This happened in the last (strengthening) EN Fall of 2023 before October ended, when much below normal temps happened everywhere in the state. But, ensembles are projecting the AO to remain in a modest + phase until about Oct 20th. So am *not very convinced on seeing 30s in the state just yet. Fall should be very noticeable over the entire state by next weekend either way, with both below normal daytime highs and nighttime lows.

Just woke up after a short night of sleep. Overnight recon has been interesting. Might have a Major at the 4AM adv. Possible landfall between Baldwin county AL & FWB FL if I were to hazard a guess currently.

Very good coverage of beneficial rainfall in the state the past week. Without causing any major flood or runoff issues, surprisingly.