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theres the amplified look. Not shocked to see the extent of the mix considering the look at the 500 level

Sunday morning 7am per the NAM at DCA

NAM Looks liek 6-10 @ HR 84 but next frame would introduce mixing

Time for another wild run of the 12z NAM. Round 1 has a strong WAA push that generates a lot of precip and it's slower to exit, making some areas of extreme NW AR and NE OK have 12" of snow with just the first round. Southern MO, NW AR, NE OK all get over a foot this run.

That's some weird output. No way DCA gets more snow than NW AA county. It's the NAM at range for you...

NAM

Southern trend with total QPF...but less overall it seems for NC

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

Which model is this? The NAM?

12/17/20 might be a pretty good one at the end. Hopefully the snow comes in better than that one did-I ended up with 8” but was hoping for 12+ but the snow shield broke up so the warm mid level air advanced faster.

Just glad to see the NAM not phase as readily, not concerned about the surface at the edge of its range.

My weatherunderground says 13.2" for my place...seems fairly reasonable

Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!

It would've been if it went out a few more panels.

I don’t really believe it, but the NAM does offer a way out for a lot of us to miss the worst of the ice. It’s certainly possible.

Paging the Icon

I like the downsloping vector too

For what it is worth. WB 12Z 12K NAM totals

750mb reaches close t0 +4 near DCA at 81 fwiw... sounding is probably very heavy sleet

spoke too soon... did save 3 hours of snow though

It is NAM with 2.5 days before onset…

I think we get less than an inch of precip here.

Was out in Colorado 1/8-1/15, got blessed with 10” of powder on day 1, but it’s historically bad out there. Definitely the worst season on record. People throw out 76/77 but they didn’t have snowmaking to supplement things back then. Fire season will be lit. (Pun intended)

Sleet is up to about Bethel Park at 81, then we dry slot. Surface temps are still in the mid teens at that hour, so I’m not sure how badly we could actually mix.

All lousy events out here so I hope Not .