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  2. That batch later looks to be heading for Philly and SNJ
  3. They seem to have a bit of a severe shape to them. Not as extreme as last week when we had better hodographs, but still a good warm sector flow with some organization. The main thing I like seeing is the line of storms swinging into MD starting to fill in a bit more.
  4. Area wide severe thunderstorm watch until 10pm.
  5. Isolated cells now E of the main area might hit the NYC area or W parts of Queens/Brooklyn
  6. Expectations quickly changing for the island. First batch will obviously miss, all bets remain on the stuff in Pa. Not the setup that brings the big rains
  7. Yeah I saw that-took 2 yrs to really recover up there-14 inches in 6 hr or something like that.
  8. Back in May, Eric Webb argued that the ++PMM was acting as a defacto +PDO. +PMM or not, my guess is that we see a flip to a weak positive PDO by the end of fall given the historic strength and strong coupling of this El Niño One thing is for sure, this El Niño looks more and impressively by the day, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are in overdrive, as are the WWBs, subsurface, SOI and DWKWs….
  9. Pretty wild up here with CTG lightening and booming thunder. Day has become dusk and the temp is down to 65. I've got speakers paired together all throughout the downstairs for the dog which is helping her today thankfully. Already over 1/2 inch of rain and looks like we're not done with this round yet.
  10. Fwiw Rufus seems to have a better handling on the convection rn. At least when comparing the most recent runs of RRFS vs HRRR at 3 pm and the the radar.
  11. another area rapidly developing storm near Old Bridge moving up Route 9 - more of these pop up storms this afternoon thoughout central and north jersey
  12. Actually inland area's like Harrisburg where I live now,did ok in 97-98..the coast was a disaster
  13. Wow! That has to be near a record max forecast for them at a 3 day lead. Some question marks around intensity for the moment though as it appears to be starting an ERC
  14. Heaviest to my west but a decent downpour here. Estimating about .9 on the day. A PWS a bit to my east is at .80 and one a bit to my west is just over 1".
  15. It certainly cleared up in a hurry. Full sunshine in Raleigh now. Wonder if the atmosphere can destabilize in time to take advantage
  16. Would be sad if so! There is a mini golf course there right next to the river that closest for two years after the last historic flooding event, it literally just reopened last week.
  17. Working on a house on the water in Milford and its been pretty sunny all day. Tons of people on the beaches.
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