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That is true for some areas but the storm was a bust in the Merrimack Valley area.

The actual SSTs late this fall into winter may continue to be near +30C in spots along the West Coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. During a much weaker El Niño in 2023-2024 they were at +29C. Plus the magnitude of the warmth in Nino 1-2 and 3 are forecast to pull the forcing east. This happened in 1997-1998 with much cooler SSTs.

Let me be clear....I agree with Chris that this season will be east-based as far as temp anomalies...warmth will be more prevalent; I'm just arguing that there will be some favorable windows during the 2nd half. I'm not arguing for a Modoki season or anything.

Pretty dreary out today but we salvaged a decent weekend up here, 0.64" overnight with a mainly dry weekend.

Where is the 1.94 reported from?

0.42" Sat, 0.89" Sun and 0.76" so far today. 2.07" for the total through 10am. I sit pretty equidistant from both Manchester (E) and Methuen (NE) at about 30-35 miles.

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once.

These longitudes are all in 3.4, BTW...should have placed the ENSO regions on here. I will go back to do so in my blog. Big thanks to @BlizzardWxfor making all of these features available on Satellitewx.com. https://satellitewx.com/

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways. We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently. Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state. The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either. If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row. At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.

Time to get this thread going again. I still think it'll be a super mild winter. While the CFS and some AI stuff keeps going cold, I believe it's feedback on SUPER Nino. They are missing the flood of warmth in the ATMO. ECMWF trended warmer. Finally got a few minutes to look at precip. Obviously the last several weeks were nuts at work with a 100-year outlier extended heat-wave. February precip chart is my dream. Oh wait! You think I need my head examined for cheering BN precip? Reembmer snow holds much less liquid than rain. We got AN rain to our southeast with BN right over Tenn. I infer southern track storm systems. I infer snow in Feb. Temps are only normal, but that's enough with variability in Feb. 500 mb (not shown) screams southern track too. ECMWF February precip, Sept. 5 forecast

Don't know how much truth there is to it but I did just see the fattest squirrel I have ever seen.

4.57” storm total so far in Hubbardston MA Uncle

The differences between the traditional (non-relative) NOAA weeklies and their official relative counterparts have increased notably since early June: 1. 6/3/26: Non-relative for 6/3/26: 03JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 Relative for 6/3/26: 03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 So, the differences between traditional and relative for 6/3/26 were: +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 +0.5 ———————— 2. 9/23/26: Non-relative for 9/23/26: 23SEP2026 4.7 3.9 3.1 1.1 Relative for 9/23/26: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 So, the differences for 9/23/26 are: +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +1.0 ————————— Thus the differences between traditional and relative for NOAA have increased from 6/3/26 to 9/23/26 by these amounts as GW’s influence over the traditional way of measuring anomalies (30 year) has increased since early summer: 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5

Skies brightening...sun poking through a bit. 59F/DP 58F

I'm not arguing that the season will look east-based in the mean in terms of sensible weather, but I think there will be greater variability than the typical east-based season for the reasons stated.

Well, you have the SST anomaly map....if you look at absolute SSTs, the 30C+ waters are mainly relegated to the central Pacific. I believe you have stated in the past that bc of CC we have crossed a critical threshold whereas convective forcing is now dictated more by there the SSTs in excess of 30C are as opposed to the greatest anomalies. This seems to have proven prescient based on where guidance is placing the most pervasive convective forcing. Yes, I agree on the split forcing.....this is the competing convection between the warm pool and ENSO. I feel it will be weighted more towards ENSO early, and flip to more warm pool guided for a time mid season into February. If you look at the modeled rainfall rates, they actually favor the central convection. Perhaps the most prominent impact of climate change is the battle royale that is constantly waged between a plethora of competing sources of convective forcing given the unprecedented degree of heat that is stored in the oceans as the climate continues to warm at an accelerating rate. Winter 2026-2027 is poised to provide those on the east coast with a front row seat to the main card match facilitated by an immense barrage of WWBs between two juggernaut sources of convective forcing in the record El Niño and central-based warm pool. An examination of the convective forcing via equatorial precipitation anomalies throughout the eastern and Pacific basin yields a similar story to that of the velocity potential. The axis of heaviest convection is located furthered east in December when El Nino, at 155 degrees longitude, while El Niño is most prominent in that battle for convective proxy. It shifts westward to approximately 163 degrees longitude in January, as the central mode becomes a bit more dominant around the midway point of the season. And continues to hold fairly steady at around 162-163 degrees longitude throughout the month of February. This 155-160 mean position of the sheared convective axis as a result of the two competing centers is consistent with both the 1982-1983 (left) analog, as well as the basin-wide composite (right). The 1982-1983 season is rapidly distinguishing itself from other analogs due to its' similarities to a unique set of circumstances that play a crucial role in dictating exactly how this winter season ultimately evolves. These factors include the ultimate peak intensity of El Niño, considerations that impact the behavior of the polar domain, such as the solar cycle and state of the stratosphere, in addition to the precise evolution or El Niño that will be so critical to its' interaction with the central Pacific warm pool that will dictate how convective forcing influences our sensible weather.

He’s been in Holland for over a week, so don’t think so

3.26 inches total so far at my station

Man, did he(T Blizz)ever have ma nature shut his yapper up.

For an anomalous storm (relative to the time of year) and some of the challenges among forecast guidance, this was an extremely well forecast storm and communicated quite well.

September 28 1983: Late summer-like temperatures arrive in Minnesota with 91 degrees at Montevideo and 90 degrees at Elbow Lake. 1895: A 'furious wind' at Pleasant Mound in Blue Earth County blows down grain stacks and corn shocks. For Monday, September 28, 2026 1836 - The first of three early season snows brought four inches of snow to Hamilton, NY, and two inches to Ashby MA. (David Ludlum) 1874 - A strong category 1 hurricane went by Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina. The tide was unprecedented height, inundating the entire riverfront of the city of Charleston. 1893 - Albuquerque, NM, was soaked with 2.25 inches of rain, enough to establish a 24 hour record for that city. (The Weather Channel) 1917 - A hurricane hit Pensacola, FL. Winds gusted to 95 mph, and the barometric pressure dipped to 28.50 inches. Winds at Mobile AL gusted to 75 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1929 - A hurricane-spawned tornado hit Fort Lauderdale, Florida. While the path length of this estimated F2 tornado was 0.8 miles, it caused 16 injuries. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in southern Kansas and north central Oklahoma overnight. The Chikaskia River rose 2.5 feet above flood stage at Blackwell OK during the day causing flooding in Kay and Grant counties of north central Oklahoma. Early morning thunderstorms in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas produced 3.07 inches of rain in six hours at McAllen. Thunderstorms produced up to six inches of rain in southeastern Texas later in the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. produced severe weather from northern Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Nolan TX, and wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at Lawrence KS. Thunderstorms drenched downtown Kansas City MO with up to four inches of rain, leaving some cars stranded in water six feet deep. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms over northeastern Florida drenched Jacksonville with 4.28 inches of rain between midnight and 6 AM EDT. Unseasonably cool weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S. Five cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 30 degrees. Morning lows were in the 20s in northern New England. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S., with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and 80s. In Oregon, Astoria reported a record high of 83 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 28 Mon National Drink Beer Day 28 Mon National Family Day 28 Mon National Neighbor Day 28 Mon National Sons Day 28 Mon World Rabies Day 28 Mon Ask a Stupid Question Day 28 Mon International Day for Universal Access to Information 28 Mon International Poke Day 28 Mon International Right To Know Day 28 Mon National North Carolina Day 28 Mon National Self Awareness Day 28 Mon National Strawberry Cream Pie Day 28 Mon Fish Tank Floorshow Night