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Verbatim based on those temperature anomaly maps New York City is pretty much right around average on December 26, while the rest of the country is torching. The craziest statistic is what you just mentioned above is where places down south that are running up to 8° below normal this month could finish close to average because much of the country will be in spring like warmth during Christmas week. Reminds me a lot of December 2022 colder than normal month overall a big-time arctic freeze a few big storms across the north US and then after Christmas, we torched right through right through New Year’s and through the rest of January.

qcomega is a more sinister and abbreviated version of Torch Tiger, with the troll knob turned up to 11.

I vehemently disagree.

Done

33 / 13 with 0.12 in the bucket yesterday. Cold overall the next 6 days, peaking Mon/Tue. Snow squall / shower/light snow overnight Sat into Sun likely a coating to 2/3 inches with some areas a bit more. Moderation by the 18th and into Christmas week to and above normal. Beyond the 25th forecasts maintain very cold just to the north so looking to finish the the last week leading to new years at or below normal after the 18-25 warmup.

The 6z Euro still being an advisory event and better than 0z is enough for me to be curious at 12z. The GFS might be closer to right in the end but it's not over, yet.

Well here we are. Can I just at least get 1” while DC gets 4”? We will see.

Definitely

The models are really not backing down with the warmth after the 20th. Not enough to offset the cold we’ve had so far but yikes that’s a pretty warm Christmas week

I'd take it. hopefully we can get a bump north

I agree. Btw this event reminds me of one of the events we had in 2015.. I think it was the Valentine’s Day snow squalls. that event was modeled as snow showers right up until the short range models started picking up on squall lines and coastal development. I remember some places in Hartford county seeing 4-6 inches in a very short period of time. the official Bwi total was 2.5 inches. here is a link to foots forecast for that storm. I couldn’t find much on it.. others than this https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralmaryland/photos/730-am-214-something-wicked-this-way-comes-and-we-hope-you-are-well-aware-of-the/10152687024933857/?http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc2NTQ1Nzk1ODAwMCwiciI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbVwvIn0%3D

I’d vote for a thread for Sunday

Ended up with 3.1" overnight. Certainly a beautiful, frosty morning (temp now is 19.8, which is the calendar day's low so far) but never did we really experience blizzard conditions. The highlight, of course, tho was the loud thunder during the "peak" last evening. If you want to enjoy really good conditions at the ski resorts, and they are currently excellent, better do it in the next week. Oy vey, don't like what's coming.

It will eventually pay off… hopefully

6z Euro still looks good for 1 to 3 inches snow chance on Sunday am for the LSV.

It's not like I was biased towards NE cold and snow, either...I think the work reflects that. Thus far I have been too warm, and by a significant margin. Last year I was also too warm.

Sitting at a sweet 1/2" here. Moderate elevation means nothing in this area.

We've been in the screw zone for several years now. The last couple weeks have been comical and sad for our area. Ready for reshuffling.

I managed a trace of snow. Haywood County schools are on a 2 hour delay today.

Lucky SOB-

Picked up a nice dusting here at the house overnight and actually saw more in town as I drove in to work this morning. Guessing there was maybe 1/2in or so at one point during the night here in town just judging by what’s left on rooftops and grass.

Someone who thought moving to Frederick County would mean more snow. Womp womp.

yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks