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I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max).

.54” here in E CT, lawn is happy.

Yep. The predicted rainfall has basically crashed out now. If we get a tenth that will be lucky with how most model runs look at this point. At some point, el nino should take hold and rain should return.

Oh what could have been if winter didn't disappear and March and April in 1977. It was already a big snow year as it was, but it could have been even bigger if March and April didn't absolutely torch. More recently, there was a snow on May 9, 2020 (as well as a freeze on May 18, 2023). Those events happened after very warm and low snow winters.

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year. 1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

I got only ~0.08” last night and only ~.01” during the daytime today, both pretty disappointing vs expectations. MTD is ~1.3”, ~1.2” of which fell one week ago (5/2) with a nice soaking 18 hour rain.

Tomorrow seems like it has potential for at least some storms of substance, even if not severe.

Nothing more soothing than a sunset nad knock.

.52 here. About what I expected. Nasty raw day and the clearing line as the sun was setting was a nice kick in the groin.

1.10” nice drink. Everything will stay nice and lush

Monday stein too. Lawn will be meh.

Half inch over the last few weeks. Webbed hands all over.

Drying up and Steined.

My place had like 10 min of thunder and some rain in between lots of sunshine

We bloom, we use snow messurement tools before harvest, and we arrange. Oh and we always dandy.

They’re simply not good. They should be good, or at least better, but they’re not.

Beautiful afternoon

.74 today and had .78 Wednesday . Drenched

That’s moving NE right at S Wey

Ha ha ok

Cats n dogs

.54 and more to go.

He’s alive and well

Not a drop of rain. And the cloudy 68F day that was forecast ended up completely sunny, humid 80F. How i despise this area.

I am paying 50 monthly. 5 dollars a month for all the domains. I dropped my pay sites so it isn't a problem. If anyone wants to donate they can but its free for all. I don't know a site that has all the features I have on the facing page with zero new pages opening to view data and will update as requested or if I want something else to add. Build your own super ensemble wether short or long term.