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Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?
SnowenOutThere replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
3k NAM looked better too. Though severe wise the hodographs look less impressive than this morning. Generally the surface winds are more westerly instead of southern on the latest runs so you don’t get the same amount of directional shear -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’d say well under 85% that it will be warmer than normal in the SE. The better chance imho is for NN there. -
PDS tornado warning outside of Evansville, Indiana
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Looks like a decent morning too…may be a good time to get fert/compost around the fruit trees.
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I’d be happy with 0.75-1.00”. So it can feel free to peel over tblizz’s wives after that.
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about time!
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Should be a decent soaking in SNE. Given how these things sort of peel right figuring that and what models have overall, I think most areas get a good soaking.
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0z NAM and HRRR are pretty close now.. Jackpot in Templeton?
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I went through some serious b*******, and I'd hate to see it happen to anybody else. Reclassification as Non-IBD IBD-related medications (namely, 5-aminosalicylates, thiopurines, corticosteroids, and anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF]) were used in 55 of the 108 patients (50.9%) misdiagnosed with UC and in 80 of the 184 patients (43.5%) misdiagnosed with CD (Table 3) https://journals.lww.com/ajg/fulltext/2023/10001/s1033_misdiagnosis_of_inflammatory_bowel_disease_.1572.aspx -
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0z hrrr would be acceptable for most in the metro areas
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0z HRRR looks great here.. we rain!
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I like 100. Yes, I'm weird.
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Your pad always looks absolutely dialed, very aesthetically pleasing summer scene.
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Tne SPC upgraded Oklahoma for wind to enhanced at 01Z but not where there's an ongoing tornado outbreak lol
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Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Check out how Nino 1+2 being warm (+2.8c) is hitting +correlation in the Rockies in the medium range.. means you might have to give warm Nino 1+2 analogs credence going forward The Rockies in the Summer recently have almost never seen that kind of cold. That's vs the 81-10 average- 195 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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Up and down pattern continues
- 195 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
- (and 1 more)
- Today
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25 preliminary tornado reports in IN/IL
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5?? -
Back to back confirmed tornadoes on the ground along the I-64 corridor with this outbreak.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Definitely done better with that past few years. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope! Lol -
Let's go high res! Stupid rain.
