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Mornings like this really show microclimate details well. I see temps as low as -6 to as high as the 8° I have now. At one point right before sunrise the spread was 15°!

That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.

Picked up a T here.

I wouldn't get worried about this yet. There is still considerable spread in the ensembles, and the degree of phasing is still up in the air. While the 00z models looked great for the most part (continued into 6z) to me confidence won't really start to increase until Thursday 12z runs. It's about just as likely we see more changes today at 12z as we did last night, how it affects our outcome is tbd.

Latest blend- snow and ice

This would right a lot of wrongs.

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

Nobody asked, but thanks for this. I feel complete for having read this.

NBM is constantly adjusting it's model weights based on recent model verifications. " The National Blend of Models (NBM) weighs individual weather models by using statistical methods based on recent performance, primarily by minimizing Mean Absolute Error (MAE) against analyzed truth (URMA). Models with lower recent MAE get higher weights, but the system also uses bias correction (like quantile mapping) and can incorporate expert-derived weights, creating a more accurate composite forecast than any single model alone"

So looks like more involved now with sleet and ice?? How's the atl area looking on the latest models? Less ice, more rain??

With these trends I’m starting to get nervous this goes the other direction and we mix to rain. Tale as old as time.

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed!

BRRR!

The NAM can probably barely contain its excitement over being able to work that warm nose in another day or so.

If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway. I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill..

6 was my low. It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification

Did you just cancel the storm

Mine refused the rolling hills of Frederick County, MD so we are moving to Calvert Hoping for one last super MoCo-HoCo band from this storm before I start hanging out on the lower southern MD/eastern shore thread

If you are in central and southern Va get your supplies now, you may not have power for a while and brutal cold coming. Someone down there is getting a brutal ice storm.

Pointing more towards a climo based storm. Not sure if I buy >.5" of freezing rain the Euro wants to give the midshore. GFS has been showing the typical subsidence that sets up over the Eastern Shore. Sounds like from NOAA discussion in the main thread they are still waiting to verify the north trend with better data, so we wait. Perhaps this evening we can start getting a better handle on potential amounts and p-type.

Rob I thought I had it rough over here at +4 stay warm you guys and gals in " the sticks"

And that’s 10:1 ratios. Easily 1+ ft across SNE with ratios. EPS putting up close to 1” qpf up to 144 hrs.

De-amping as we get to day 3-4 has been a trend all year. Let’s see how this one goes with an actual STJ component

Usually you are colder than me. Today's a bit different. Crazy cold at our shop, though. Got down to -10 there.

Too soon. PF on standby…