All Activity

It's an insane meteorological solution. The low I've been discussing in the long range thread somehow cuts off and generates its own cold air. No way its right but was funny to see. I'll miss the NAM.

Not yet. Maybe early next year will be baby number 2.

I am at 0.71” total. On Monday the QPF for me was forecasted to land just under 1.2”. Starting to rain again and temp has dropped to 38.

There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino. Stock up on multiple Jebman Shovels, your favorite foods, metric tons of IPA's, plenty of beer, salt and even a snow blower or two.

It’s not hard to research these days. Plus all bets are off with climate change regardless Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is not expected to end immediately, though scientists are actively tracking early signals that a shift could begin to take shape over the next few years . Oh and yeah that’s Fran 1996

85 my high .

I'm afraid to say this as much as we need the rain, but I really just want a cool, fallish Saturday with deep blue skies. I really want to work on my shed. Had two straight rainy weekends.

It’s gonna rain all night there. Friday too. They have no choice. Thursday A chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 62. East wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Mid teens here

What this means is: Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC; Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new. So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

Get used to cold solutions, correcting warmer passing through the mid ranges

You may have already observed that correlation

Anyone else seeing windy conditions right now (9:50pm)?

SPC has day 1 marginal risk out for middle TN parts of west TN and east TN and South ky north of i40 just for 5% wind also a line of thunderstorms along the cold front making their way here too https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .

I wonder how much butthurt would there be on here if it verifies and coal country gets a head start with measurable snow this year?

Yes and we also refused to let blacks play with whites. Not during the 70s - 90s, but it happened. Things change. Progress occurs. Stadiums have lights now. There's no need to be playing baseball during the day, especially during the league championship series.

Yes. It will turn milder, but very likely not as warm as it was today or will be on Friday.

Cooler weather will arrive overnight. The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.336 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It is interesting you mention Edna. The greatest hurricane of that period was actually Hazel. How did it keep hurricane force winds all the way to Toronto and even 113 mph to NYC? Looks like 1846 had a similar hurricane to that that occurred on this date? What the devil was going on in 1780 that made it so destructive? What were the water temperatures back then? I know our winters were historic back then because of a big volcano eruption in Iceland. By the way the climate has shifted away from east coast impacts and thats a long term shift . And yet very few east coast landfalls. Actually zero. We have seen a shift away from east coast hurricanes though and it's a long term shift that may be ACC related (stronger highs). How do you know the AMO isn't returning to its cold phase again? The warm phase as already lasted for 30 years. I think the drier years we've had the last two years indicate that change is now beginning. The AMO warm phase started in 1995. Its time is up.

Next week is precariously close to turning into a disaster .