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good map

The 540 lime is only a rough approximation when the AI doesn’t show the P-Types chart. Right now I would probably use the NAM as the floor for NYC and Long Island with at least 6-8” before any mixing later Sunday. The RGEM and other guidance at 10-12” would probably be the ceiling. I used the kuchera to account for the higher ratios at the start gradually falling back later Sunday.

For comparison, here my P & C says 3-5, 6-10, 1-3, respectively.

We need mire color commentary, Jeff.

Decent overnight runs here

12-18" is more then reasonable, These SWFE's like to move around a bit the last 48hrs or so.

LWX current map for ice potential, fwiw. Source: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

This is all we need to root for at this point. Max precip in the 6-18z window. No light stuff, need a pummeling.

I think the naps should akways reflect forecasted event totals, even after the storm begins.

Yeah, I always forget about the time range listed on their maps. I've always felt there's stormed up maps should be the entire event, and they should separate out time frames in the text

06z Euro looks good.

In case you were wondering, or not, 6z GGEM colder with lots of 10" (light orange) and 12" (dark orange) thru the metro areas. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=cmc_gdps&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off

I bleieve @Dark Star posts the triangle. His visualization really summarizes things quite well.

doubtful. but a lot change in 24 hours. Me and @Sey-Mour Snoware on the same page completely with this one. I'm sure N CT will be in the 12+ area. lmao, i always forget about that model, i said that a couple storms ago too. They love the HREF and esp the NBM.

MRX Snow/Ice maps. They apparently see the downslope and cold banking along the Plateau. You can look at this and probably guess Advisory vs Warning if they ever actually get around to it.

My thoughts haven't changed too much overnight. Cooler air arrived a few hours more slowly than had been modeled overnight. But overall, things remain on track for a frigid start to the weekend and a large storm on Sunday into early Monday. The overnight guidance reached consensus that the snow that arrives on Sunday will eventually change to sleet in much of the New York City area and its nearby suburbs. A few of the models cut back on QPF. Almost 95% of EPS and GEFS members show 6" or more snow in New York City. In the bigger picture, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. It remains likely that New York City and nearby areas will see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly today. Whether or not changes will need to be made remain to be seen.

NWS just updated forecast Ft Meade MD @ 6:15 a.m. what blend do they use?

RGEM mixes us at the same time/hour as the Euro does. Gives us 10" areawide before mixing. I'll take it!

Oddly the NBM says I'll be getting more than the map or the text forecast.

Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe.

Im going to try to get my atlas back on wunderground at some point tommorrow… im finally moved in enough to work on things i want to do instead of what my wife insists me on doing [emoji23][emoji23] .

It’s kind of a shame the locals aren’t really part of this experience any more. Maybe it’s because there is less reliance there….but also no one really jumps out as someone that caters to enthusiasts. For example - KDKA seems like they have a fun met room, but no one is breaking down models and scenarios. Although Ray P did have a bit of a funny X post. Basically said “my forecast is 6-12”. It’s conservative due to a few wild cards, and will probably go up…but don’t ask me about someone else’s forecast. Ask them!”. Obviously he is likely getting bombarded with questions since weather apps had been flashing big numbers for days.

For those interested in the NBM, this page allows you to pick the parameter on a dashboard page, and it provides you the model blend for that particular hour's model output. It does change depending on how close or far our the forecast range is: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.

Rgem was a little of both. It did trend a little SE with the whole thermal boundary but then it also death banded us.