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Tomorrow through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. A few locations could reach or exceed 80° on one or more days. Cooler air will return for the weekend. A rainy period could develop late Sunday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -36.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.191 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yep, severe cold snaps and huge snowstorms is a common hallmark of Nino falls for the middle of the country, here included.

This has been a very boring 6 months or so around here.

Yeah. I was taking the trash to the curb and was admiring the sky. Stupid trees prevent good pics here though. humid

Great sunset this evening…

18z gfs and gfs ai both upgraded to light rain

And guess which one will be right in the end?

Per Eric Webb’s table, 1925-6 trimonthlies peaked at +1.3.

Ah, so the new UKMET. I will be sure to mostly ignore it.

it's done. 5 months of autumn incoming

Definitely warm this evening feels good. I'm in no rush for the cold.

DVN issued a flood watch for tonight, but models have shifted south again (has been recent theme). I may get little or even nothing.

89 for the high. Quite gross. I need rain desperately bad. My garden is brown.

I never heard of the authors/site, but 40/70 was pretty critical of them over in the New England forums winter thread.

Yes I posted a Tweet in another thread but cannot find it. The Canadian has definitely seen an upgrade in its 500mb verification scores of late.

Topped out at 80F. Felt warm comparatively to what we just had.

Today seems to be one of the bigger monsoon (southwesterly) rainstorms for Arizona, associated with the trough on the West Coast.

Better rain chances. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.

The GFS is useless, but yeah, that’s basics my peak season forecast. I’m out on a limb with 3 H 1 MH but I think the windows will open. First flakes at SLK? We kicked things off on 10/31 last year and were off to the races not too long after.

summer is over no more hot weather..