All Activity

Man I am gonna miss this 1' plus since January

Sure and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

Intriguing since wouldn't Kuchera be best in mixed? Gonna check Cobb Bufkit

I'm wondering a couple of things. one, will all this snow really be down to just piles in time. That's only 6 days away and the specifics of the CMC/GFS/Euro ops offer enough clouds and mean frontal position headaches to perhaps level the melt potential some. I mean, I've seen it approach 70 over a snow pack, sure. But that's with howling S gales and tons of steam rollin off the fields in firehose melt off that will be bare ground in a coffee break. I'm not sure it is environmentally possible to put 80 F over a geographic pan dimensional cryosphere and keep it sunny. There's kind of a 'absurdity limit' lol two, if so ... does this approach on te 10th/11th period possibly expose a flaw in these AI versions? ie., not defining or integrating that aspect of the environmental precondition. I suspect the answer's no, anyway. They still illustrate like 1993 MRF runs with larger granularity. That doesn't look like discrete systemic awareness really.

If we do see another stronger El Niño so soon after 2023-2024, then it may be another piece of evidence indicating that the PCC has shifted positive leading to the big spike in global temperatures since 2023. We probably need to get past the spring forecast barrier in order to know the details of how strong this one gets. It’s possible that the faster rate of warming since 2023 is related to a shift in the newly discovered PCC near Nino 1.2. Notice the current Nino 1.2 temperatures have warmed in recent weeks. The last El Niño in 23-24 also experienced earlier warming than past events as the Nino 1+2 warming was early also. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warmingelsewhere.

I am just going to say it. This weather is depressing.

I tend to avoid using the Kuchie maps, especially in mixed bag events.

48 this morning for the low. Crazy to say in early March but those will be our last 40’s for at least a week with the summer like pattern overtaking the region

0z gfs crapped out a season saver in fantasy range but it quickly went poof

That should make some mud.

Thanks. I also agree with the category 2 NESIS rating.

Pad those seasonal stats. You could honestly get all iced to 6 to 8. Interesting I would be all up on this setup up there. Congrats

what? Plainfield delays now

GFS coochie is crazy puts down even 3 to Kevin that's impossible

Moved north?

Depends on where. 2-4” seems possible in N ORH but it will be sloppy.

4.0"

5.4" last night puts PWM at 58.0" for the season. Current depth of 16" is deepest this season. This morning will be the last skate/shoot around of the season, most likely. What a great run for it.

Honest-to-god-truth....I didn't get much more snow in the blizzard than I got yesterday...difference? The world paused for the former because some crack-whore on crystal meth caught a 40" bonannza in Fall River. I'll be perfectly honest...yesterday, in a vacuum, was more disruptive than the blizzard because it was a blend of just about every abomination that can descend from the sky at the most inopportune time possible-which is categorically worse than 10" of sand during a full-shut-down that blows off the road before the plow is inconvenienced by it.

Gefs is 3 days later.

EPS has not changed the start time of the next window.

5.4"/0.54" final 12z depth 16"

In my experience on this board UHI is a red herring. Often raised; but, never documented with hard evidence. UHI is a local effect while climate change is global. There are thousands of stations in the US. Easy to determine if most of the warming is from UHI or not.There is UHI of course, but it doesn't have much impact at most stations. The urbanization occurred a long time ago or doesn't occur near the station. Lander appears to be one of those cases. The Lander airport weather station is well outside of the town's footprint. In a dry area like Lander irrigation or grass watering could have a large effect. The photo shows greening from watering outside the built-up area. There could easily be a negative UHI impact there. Lander's population rose rapidly before 1970 but hasn't changed much since 1970; with ups and downs, and a small decline since 2010. Lander Airport temperatures have risen slightly since 1940, with most of the rise after population stabilized in 1970. There doesn't appear to be any correlation between temperature at the airport and local population, with declining temperatures during the most rapid population rise in the 1960s, consistent with a grass watering effect. Note that the coolest year 2017 is impacted by missing data. Other regional stations weren't cool that year. Removing 2017 would increase recent warming somewhat.