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Looking forward to flooding and an updated moderate drought map on Wednesday.

will be curious how much if any snow if left in the mountains obviously should be plenty based on the time of year

tons of deep standing water around the northside making things messy for the am commute spring leak out set to be lush af again blessed

Highlight Changed Discussion -- 049 FXUS61 KCTP 160905 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 505 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Wind Advisories extended across northern PA and issued east of US-15 to account for gusty pre-frontal winds this afternoon. * Added details about timing of multiple rounds of showers/storms this afternoon. * Issued Winter Weather Advisory for Laurels & Northwest Mountains tonight for a thump of snow behind the cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. 2) Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats. 3) Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather hangs around through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold frontal passage. An impressive wind field continues to overspread Pennsylvania this morning and gusty south winds are expected throughout the day. Locations to the north and west of any steep terrain will continue to experience the strongest wind gusts during the day today, with sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts 30 to 45 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern tier through early this afternoon, and then a Wind Advisory will go into effect for locations east of US-15 this afternoon through the evening. Note that gusty winds are expected across the entire area today and any showers or storms will tap into a very strong wind field aloft, bringing locally enhanced wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center has continued with their Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) today. There appear to be two distinct rounds of rain that will cross the region. The first will be a pre-frontal line of storms that are currently crossing eastern Ohio and will get into our western counties (Warren/Somerset) between 9 and 10AM. As this line moves across the Commonwealth, it will encounter increasing amounts of instability (500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE) and intensify. The line is not currently producing any lightning, but lighting activity should commence by late this morning as it crosses the I-99 corridor. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this line of storms, but a favorable low level wind profile with ~200 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH will be sufficient for tornadoes along any portions of the line that develop kinks or discrete elements with embedded supercells. The second round of concern is when the surface cold front crosses the region. Although most of the instability will be absorbed by the first batch of storms, a potent isallobaric pressure fall/rise couplet will provide plenty of lift to produce a narrow cold frontal rainband. With 50+ kt winds just above the surface, it won`t take much to mix down strong to damaging winds. This line of rain and winds likely won`t have any lightning with it, but the wind will pack a punch as cold air pours in behind it. The cold front and associated damaging wind threat will clear our eastern counties by 10 or 11PM. QPF will be 1 to 1.5" for locations east of the I-99/US-15 corridor, and isolated 2" amounts are possible at higher elevations in Schuylkill and Sullivan County. Antecedent dry conditions should preclude any major flooding concerns, but ponding on roadways is a real possibility. If you have outdoor plans on Monday afternoon and evening, be sure to monitor the weather and consider changing your plans. KEY MESSAGE 3: Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather hangs around through midweek. This evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-4" of snow in western portions of the state. HREF probabilities of 1" per hour snowfall rates are impressive and a several hour period of thumping snow are possible in the Laurels and northwest mountains. The latest WPC Winter Storm Outlook, which depicts probabilities of Winter Storm Warning level snowfall amounts, paints 30-50% probabilities from Somerset north to Warren/McKean/Potter County with a few pixels over 50% in McKean County. Although Warning level amounts are unlikely, the combination of favorable lift, heavy snow rates, and onset after sunset lead to confidence in at least Advisory level amounts/impacts. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 21Z/5PM today through 06Z/2AM Tuesday for the northwest counties. The Advisory will continue through Tuesday afternoon (in collaboration with PBZ and LWX) in Cambria and Somerset County for lingering upslope snow showers. Tuesday looks windy and much colder, with temperatures about 25-35 degrees lower than today`s highs (highs no better than the upper 20s-mid 30s in many locations). Gusty winds will keep wind chills in the teens and twenties all day. Scattered snow showers/squalls with moisture sourcing from the Great Lakes will traverse the region and could lead to brief reductions in visibility and a quick accumulation of snowfall on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will moderate this week and trend back to near average by Friday with occasional chances for rain or snow, but no significant accumulation is expected at this time. Outlook... Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN northwest. IFR possible at BFD/JST. Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA possible northwest. Thu...Sct showers over northern PA with restrictions possible. Fri...PM Showers move in from W PA, restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006- 010>012-037-041. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018. Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ017-018-024- 033. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ024-033. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042. Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for

How we looking? Bust or Legit?

39/37 Rain. Temps stayed up all night as expected. Continued thaw and melting overnight of the of piles into 60 degree temps tonight should wipe it all out, outside of the parking lots.

Rain started 6am, 38F, .11 so far, dumping away!

My temp is about 10° warmer than yesterday so at least I won’t be sitting in CAD all day

Already .28” of rain, temp 45F. Remain piles of snow will be gone after today

Starting out at 53 this morning at 6 am. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Wind seems far less than expected.

Most of the misleading information I see comes from fossil fuel and utility incumbents. For instance, per top link below, the "expense" of additional baseline power to backstop renewables is a fossil fuel fallacy. Renewables are becoming cheaper. Not everywhere and in every application; but, the long term trend is clear. In the future fossil fuels will be less competitive than they are today. Its not only renewables. A number of key energy technologies are on long-term improvement curves: batteries, EV, heat pumps etc. They work together to make energy generation, storage, transmission and use cheaper and more efficient. Meanwhile fossil fuel use is a mature technology; that uses a diminishing resource; and, that carries geopolitical and climate risk that isn't baked into the price. https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/renewables-allow-us-to-pay-less-not https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth https://www.electrotech-revolution.com/p/what-is-electrotech-and-what-will

Had some very heavy rains around 3am on/off for about an hour or so. Winds really blowing too.

Yup. Sweet radar look. Rare, it looks as modeled.

Nice defo

Anyone still hoping for arctic cold and snowstorms are trying to get blood from a stone at this point. This winter is cooked, been cooked. Done, over, finished, history, fat lady has sung and went home, stick a fork in it, bring down the curtain, it’s over Johnny, goodnight and goodbye, adios, dead, in the grave, RIP. A former winter…..

Hoping these bust scenarios are true I don’t need any massive trees onto my house.

Just took my dogs outside. It is nasty out there. The wind’s blowing in such a way where the deck door was almost snowed in; and the gusts are whipping up little brief “snownados” all over. Good luck to anyone measuring & traveling out here. I’m typically a big snow guy, but this on March 16th may be a little…more than I need?

Hm. Current radar shows the line over Charleston WV. Doing some math based on its 40mph speed it’d hit Cvill at 10am. Wonder if the HRRR 0z will be right

Woke up at 3:21 to some heavy rain, loud thunder and lots of lightning. Picked up .71" of rain before I left for work at 5. Itbqas still raining soIm curious what they toral will be. Almost half inch was in the first 20 minutes. Rain has picked up pretty good again at 5:20. Pretty good soaker coming down at VW. About to get wet. [emoji38] Left my umbrella at home. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Just saw lightning for the first time in forever. Currently dumping .25 inch per hour rates.

@SEwakenosnowforuhere is the thread.

We have a storm thread that is dedicated to severe weather. It's not pinned so you have to scroll down.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-025-027-035-045-059-071-075-087-089- 097-099-109-111-113-115-119-121-149-159-161-171-173-175-179-189- 193-197-199-161500- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0064.260316T0840Z-260316T1500Z/ NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CABARRUS CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MACON MADISON MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK ROWAN RUTHERFORD SURRY SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA UNION WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY

Severe Thunderstorm warnings for the SW mountains.