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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Since we are very likely going to be in uncharted territory by early November with the warm pool pushed all the way to 140W (along with a record-breaking super El Niño in place for that matter), we aren’t going to know how the atmosphere reacts to that massive change in the global heat budget and the realignment of the ENSO Hadley Cell….where does it put the main forcing/standing wave convection? How far east does it go? We are going to have to wait and see what happens at that point in time…. -
The pattern of hot as hell then gray cooler skies seems to be the definition of this summer. Being able to have my blinds opened back up from the heat is nice though.
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Even in Raleigh the dewpoints are extra bad today.
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Agree about the softening, also for folks playing the blame game if they are inconvenienced in any way. However, the bolded seems counterintuitive. at least from a practical standpoint. Those out in the wx would seem to be more affected than those sitting in their LRs poking their cellphones. Wonder if we’ll all go 10 straight days with no rain ? That arrives today; most recent precip was 0.16" on June 28. The temps running 5° AN during that period exacerbates the drying.
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A New Orleans special
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This is as much about the high dewpoints (in or near upper 70s) as it is about the heat, itself (mid to upper 90s): EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 112 to 116possible.* WHERE...Coastal southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening.* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly duringextreme heat and high humidity events.Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out ofthe sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
Great Snow 1717 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
1.09 of much needed rain in methuen -
Yeah hopefully that breaks for them today.
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incredible things are happening in china
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I saw this posted online and it was presented as real but I didn't verify it. I don't doubt it however and I believe this is along the lines of what @vortex95 is talking about with regard to hype. Consider if this bar chart went all the way to zero and those gaps between numbers remained the same - it would challenge the Burj Khalifa!
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Would think so. Aligns with what I saw and that is a serious swath of two day non-tropical rainfall for July! You cannot ask for more in the areas that got it but man SE Wake just cannot get lucky that's some forcefield type stuff going on down there
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Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
CoastalWx replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
What folks? Srn CT got 4”+. Most others were near your amount. PYM county got 3-4” too. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
TheClimateChanger replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Incredibly impressive on the YTD for CONUS-wide average. Nearly 3F above the 1991-2020 mean. With Nino heating for the second half of the year, you have to think there is a real chance for warmest year on record. Current record is +2.21F (relative to 91-20 average), set in 2024. -
Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7
tamarack replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Biggest snowfall of my experience (26.5" on 3/14-15, 1984, CAR had 29.0") arrived at about 1030 mb and didn't quite get down to 1015 by storm's end. Temp was +/- 10° for most of the event, with 15-25 mph SE breeze. 22" fell 6 AM-8 PM. The numbers: 13 10 -18 0 0 46" 14 12 2 2.08" 25.0" 65 " Deepest ever at my snow stake. 15 28 10 0.10" 1.5" 64" Snow ended before dawn, with some ZR. -
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14688458/
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yesterday's high here in East Nantmeal was only 72.7 this set a new low maximum temperature for the date set back in 2005 of 73.7. Another below normal temperature day today with highs not far from 80 degrees. Shower chances increase tomorrow afternoon and again on Friday into Friday night. Temperatures remain near normal through the weekend before warming a few degrees above with highs by the middle of next week in the mid to upper 80's. Does not look like any return of 90 degree plus reading across the county for the foreseeable future. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yesterday's high here in East Nantmeal was only 72.7 this set a new low maximum temperature for the date set back in 2005 of 73.7. Another below normal temperature day today with highs not far from 80 degrees. Shower chances increase tomorrow afternoon and again on Friday into Friday night. Temperatures remain near normal through the weekend before warming a few degrees above with highs by the middle of next week in the mid to upper 80's. Does not look like any return of 90 degree plus reading across the county for the foreseeable future. -
I actually made a post over in the El Niño thread about the Cfs2 looking interesting at 10mb this winter, but I took it down figuring the usual suspects might accuse me of being a weenie...imagine that, me being accused as being a weenie? Lol Anyway, here was the 1/27 link I had posted. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2026070800&fh=6
