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That's does it... Man..don't send pictures of what you look like... Now I can't take anything you say seriously... ( JK ). Bald is beautiful!!! Own it!!

I'm at 40 in D.C., lol. You'd think we could push 50 today

That top map is wind chill.

It usually takes me until April to be ready for spring due to how short the season is (December is usually when we get our first true winter weather) and my appetite for snow. If we cash in during the upcoming period, I would be more ready early. I like the fact we got a good winter - have had enough mild ones lately that some I talk to seem to forget what it’s like.

UAH TLT data was released this morning. Globally, the anomaly came in at 0.35C, up 0.05C from December. For the CONUS, January 2026 averaged 0.30C above the 1991-2020 mean. The CONUS winter season to date (December & January) is currently the warmest on record (since 1978-79) in the satellite-based dataset, and by a very significant margin over No. 2. The two month average is +1.20C for the CONUS, while the prior record for December & January was set in 2021-22 at +0.91C. Very likely that this will be the warmest winter on record in the CONUS in the UAH TLT data.

I think for reserves it's two, that's probably what it is.

Currently has me more than 5 degrees cooler than it is outside.

The hires RGEM killed it on the last two storms. Especially the one two weekends ago, but here's a run from Friday that did fairly well as well

OP GFS doesn't look cold at all during that time. Does it or am I hallucinating?

Yesterday morning I got 14-15”. Some less in sun, some yards have more. That’s about avg. I saw 16.5 in S Wey and 18” in Kingston all yesterday. I’m sure if I had a wooded lot it would be more.

Ice conditions as of Feb 2. Pretty much a variety of ice thickness now.

If we play our cards right we might all manage to get to 0.5" this week!

Depth?

I’m not retired. May be back in it soon in some form.

4 by 4 committed

it seems to be within the realm of possibility.

How did RGEM perform with the last storm?

precision is the name of the game on this end. sadly, i’ve never eclipsed 3” of snow on a given shift.

CMC and ICON 12z runs also spit out a bit of a coating for the clippity clip

There definitely looks to be a warm period next week as the western ridge finally slides east. After that, there's reasons to think the pattern could be workable for parts of the region next weekend and beyond. Key feature would be the continued west based -NAO and to a lesser extent the AO. Based on stratospheric discussion the past few days, there could be some flux in the polar domains which may affect predictability farther out. The EPO is currently modeled to trend strongly positive for a time, but then become less strongly positive. A positive EPO certainly points towards a generally warmer pattern. But the magnitude matters, and in February, a -NAO could do more work given the thick snow and ice cover over Canada vs earlier in the season. The way I see it, the risk is absolutely there for warmer systems, but the -PNA at least gives a chance for decent storms coming out of the southwest. Since it appears the NAO should remain generally negative, you can still get snow/ice threats even in an unfavorable EPO setting (assuming that holds as modeled). Seems like a pattern in which being farther west and north would tend to be more helpful with a fairly potent southeast ridge favored. I'd prefer to roll the dice with this than more endless cold northwest flow. Even if winter threats don't work out, I'm personally over the persistent cold weather we've had since mid January.

12z UK hits southern VA good

GFS

It looks like the one is taking a picture of the others. I would.

I think that lasts 2 years, but could be 4...it's been awhile.