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  2. Typhoon Tip
    Does anyone know of any sources that extend the cyclone phase diagram/tech outside of just tropical applications? I am well aware of this found Bob Hart's found here, https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ I recall seeing this method applied to other cyclone types in the past, but I'm not finding those sites. I'm just been sort of frustrated by the models insistent on sub 1000 mb low spin up over NJ, amidst 570+ thickness in all radial directions. That latter circumstance is odd. It is not the typical baroclinic model ( to some degree ) low, which is physically necessary for extratropical cyclones. You know? warm sector, cold sector, cool sector. So I'm just wondering if were seeing a kind of quickly evolving hybrid type low pressure here... It may account for the more robust solutions, if some of the thermodynamic/UVM forcing were sharing space. Regarding rainfall... we seem to be peaking PWAT against climo - which is pretty tall order. What comes along with that is is increased chances that locations will observe bigger results from surprising smaller reasons to do so. That's what happens in heavier moistened columns. Suspending a fall column through it, what reaches the ground is more. etc.. So this system is slow-ish moving. A training band even in a weaker total low the proves the NAM/Euro are over sensitive at "boundary of existence" - which I don't see how this thing can be a 995 mb low unless the phase might expose it has shared thermodynamic processes...
  3. donsutherland1
    I don't have objections to his use of AI to assist with the analysis. But my read is that he essentially guided the AI to reach a desired conclusion concerning NCEI's "cooling". To illustrate how AI can be steered into erroneous conclusions, a climate contrarian and musician on X often engages in extreme misuse of AI (prompt injection and bullying based on the limited set of prompts he has posted e.g., he restricts the AI's to a strictly "first principles" analysis excluding substantial information then follows up asking that other things be excluded) to push multiple AI's into denying anthropogenic climate change. This case does not go to such extreme ends. My point is that one has to be careful when crafting prompts if one aims to reach strong, objective analytical outcomes. One can even ask AI to assess and revise the prompt before utilizing it. In my view, a better approach would have involved sharing the raw data for the stations, making no references to NCEI's adjustments in the prompt(s), sharing station move/TOBS information, other relevant information. etc. and then asking whether one could rely on the raw data, alone, over time to construct a representative or reliable long-term climate record. One could also ask the AI to provide an explanation/analysis and generate a reproducible methods section (assuming sufficient information is available). Afterward, if the output suggested that the raw data, alone, created a flawed climate record, one could upload the various papers describing NCEI's adjustments, and ask the AI to assess those adjustments, their impact on addressing the flaws in the climate record, etc.
  4. hudsonvalley21
    Can actually say we don’t really need that much today. First time in a long while for that statement. Picked a good time to be in Cancun this week. Fingers crossed for no flooding and damage to all.
  5. forkyfork
    i would like big totals plz
  6. Kmlwx
    The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of.
  7. Met1985
    This could get interesting later on. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  8. IrishRob17
    Hoping for a miss here as well, close to 10" here for July at this point.
  9. eyewall
    NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward.
  10. Weather Will
    Nice morning in OC
  11. Kmlwx
    Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times.
  12. Brian5671
    I'm hoping it misses here-the big totals-still alot of cleanup ongoing after last week's flooding/damage
  13. jm1220
    Yep, seems pretty straightforward to me. Models almost unanimously nailing that area that got hit last week too.
  14. yoda
    It looks like its leaving a gap in the middle
  15. ravensrule
    Turn the shower head down.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick.
  17. Brian5671
    yep-let's see how accurate the models are -N NJ and the HV look like the target
  18. Met1985
    Looks like this will weaken and by this afternoon around 2 things should start heating up.
  19. Met1985
    Brad Panovich just put out a great video about today's storms. The models or the model he was showing actually shows two waves of storms moving through. One wave starts around 2 to 3 today then another wave around 8 or 9 tonight. Looks like we could see some discreet cells developing as well. Fun times.
  20. Great Snow 1717
    ....so true!! ...and some already are doing dry runs in preparation..
  21. A-L-E-K
  22. Great Snow 1717
    His forecast was much better than other forecasts..
  23. canderson
    .02” rain sometime overnight.
  24. Great Snow 1717
    Tolleris or JB ???
  25. Yanksfan
    With a raging southern jet I think we can all agree on a stormy winter. What are the early thoughts on storm tracks; benchmark vs. inland runners?
  26. Today
  27. ChescoWx
    Despite our hot start to July we have turned much cooler over the last 10 days, which has brought us all the way back to average temperatures so far for the month of July. Today looks to be the most impactful day with flash flood threats although as many of you know much of Northern Chesco has not seen as much beneficial rains as the rest of the area. Shower chances will continue but not a wash out by any means through Thursday. We finally dry out on Friday with sun returning both Friday and Saturday.
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