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Euro seems unusually dry. Even BOX and ALB are only just over 10 inches on 10:1

Does FRAM include sleet? Philly .31"is that ZR

My best buddy in lLisburn is a a topo junkie too. Check out Topo ranger on youtube. He's just a geo weenie that goes around to different local sites of geographic importance. I enjoy his videos, especially on the lower Susquehanna.

Weve had lot of advisories, no warnings, though arguably Jan 15th couldve been a warning (it went from a 50% chance of snow to an advisory halfway through lol).

I just threw up in my mouth a little reading that

WSW with 10-15" which is a bit high. I would've gone with 8-12" which is the model consensus but we'll see if those early ratios make up for it.

You could not pay attention to it?

Clear trend on the Euro to also weaken the primary low at the surface and aloft quicker. Probably stunts the mid level warming so quickly. I want to see more of that today into tomorrow.

Euro shaved a litlle qpf in Eastern MA.

Actually, I'm fine with the snow and sleet glacier if we get what's behind door #1 on top of it. That look reminds me of tracking the '93 Superstorm in college in VT with the rudimentary internet. I thought finding the NWS discussions was the best thing since the weather radio.

I'm thinking thats a tad conservative. I'm still adamant of a floor of 6" for the area.

Cool it Ravensrule

You read this before you hit send right?

Yes thats snow, but probably with some riming. Think this would give us an hour before fully flipping to sleet

Looks like Mount Holly included Berks for the 10-15" warning in the area between I-78 and I-95. And then areas along/near I-95 and south it's 8-12". North of I-78 it's 12-18".

So...I anybody here willing to make a tutorial video about just the basics of reading soundings and H5? I mean there's plenty to read about it I'm sure, but...like if it was just a "H5 for dummies" kinda video for laymen that would be awesome!

Even though it's not a strict "Miller B", the whole setup feels like a hybrid one with a low riding up a cold front as the front moves east, and then transferring out to the coast. Anything that even hints at "Miller B" seems to always be hard to nail down.

Euro came in with the heavier stuff earlier when the ratios are better lol

It made it hard for me to post on here and seeing him complain whenever the forecast was 3-6 and we got 3 or a storm trending a lot with 48+ hours left. I also have matured somewhat and dont let this hobby get to me.

No... just... no...

That scenario makes a lot of sense in Chattanooga. Knox and points north could have more light precip. Sunday night. In this business anything is possible for both locations. We'll know Monday morning.

Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w.

Think it may be more the gfs getting lucky with the outperformance so far. Lots of factors with phasing and the cold to the north. Will come down to now casting for those on the northern fringes

Good trend. I’d sign now for the Euro. Wondering how long we can hold on to the fresh pow before the flippity flip…

He was insufferable