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Looks to me like the ICON is holding the primary longer and stronger through 48hrs

If you add 1-2" of sleet that counts as accumulation too but I always thought 12" for NYC which they have now and 14" yesterday was too aggressive. I'd go with 12" maybe in Yonkers and 8" in SI/Rockaway.

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

It’s actually much warmer and gets sleet onto Massachusetts

Regional battles heating up. Blood is in the water, and the usual suspects can smell it.

I am not talking outlier regarding snowfall amounts - I am talking outlier regarding sleet/freezing rain amounts rather have dry slot then sleet or freezing rain

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me. But people neeed to stop panicking it was one run no other model has it as bad

The RRFS is snowier than the NAM for sure, but the RRFS also shifted northward with the heaviest snow and the thermals. 12z had better ratios and was a mid-HV down to near NYC jack. 18z has it up near ALB with heavy snows to the NY border. Obviously it will shift around somewhat but it's disappointing not to see a clear colder/south trend at 18z so far.

Remember, the NAM is being retired.

NAM is better within 42 hours lol

I am not discounting the NAM. It can be a frontrunner showing the thermal trends. I hope its wrong but there is a decent chance it is leading the way. Seen this before. Oh, and always go with the least snowy model. Weenie handbook first chapter, first sentence in the book!

We NAM.

That big of a change in one run, outside of range? Toss until other models say otherwise.

People were just high fiving and going belly to belly six hours ago over the NAM and now this? How about waiting until it shows a solution in consecutive runs before making a judgement?

If that NAM run worked out like that I would quit this hobby... ........until like Tuesday to start it all over again for next weekends possibility.

1/23 18z RGEM updating

Interesting snippet from LWX's latest AFD. I bolded the part that stood out to me, involving heavy sleet at times and possibly "a few inches" of sleet accumulation! If that happens...wow...that would be an unreal sleet bomb, bigger than what I got in Feb. 2007 (and this will be a LOT colder too). They've adjusted the Saturday night and Sunday accumulations of snow/sleet a bit but still generally in the same range as before at least for the DC metro. While this event will start as a period of heavy snow (potentially 1-2"/hr at times) overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, a potent warm nose aloft will quickly transition most locales to sleet by mid-morning. Now, this will be very heavy sleet at times, especially before the afternoon, so even the sleet accumulations could amount to a few inches. Hence, the storm total snow forecast you will see on weather.gov/lwx/winter will be showing the combination of snow and sleet.

early on both looked better, then 12k shit the bed and 3k was rather similar to nooner. qpf a little less on both though.

ICON looks prepared to amp more at hr36

Today has been a classic day before a winter storm. Clear and 50 degrees.

How much you want fof it?

What i keep saying strong artic high its like models and forecasters are ignoring it

Oh I saw that. It just looks really off to me for some reason. Way different than WPC maps I'm used to. Like all the overlays are shaky.