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12z ICON also but a little further south

Don't do it

50/50 ... heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter. The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO. That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it? I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials. You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference. Digress.. Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way. I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months

30 and overcast at 12:20pm is no way to run a Spring day. Fail.

27.3F. I'm over the cold, let's get on with Spring.

It was 12 degrees at 530 am when I left for work. Had a fresh cover of les last night here in the Poconos as well. As of quarter after noon, it still hasn't melted off, with temps hanging in low 20's.

same here, i have a big brush pile i need to burn before all the snow is gone, and doing that in the rain is not fun

parts of Florida had more snow than parts of Utah? That doesn't sound right.

we 12z GFS

I thinkthe last time I had more than an inch of snow here in March was 2019

Interesting read on the ENSO transition underway and downstream impacts. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/spring-2026-forecast-update-polar-vortex-core-el-nino-rising-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

IMO, that was under forecast by SPC along Dixie Alley. It's similar to how they under forecast the 2012 derecho.

GFS (06z) would be excellent.

Some real haves and have nots in NE

I saw somebody noted they issued an apology. I wonder if companies started pulling business. I'll admit, I was petty. I found an old FB post from Shipley Energy from 12 years ago (of which I am a customer in Bigler) and posted the screenshot from this thread, and then another business who had a post from seven years ago. I want them bankrupt.

Warm spots may do it Sunday

I'm willing to bet that isn't an issue later this year.

0z GFS showed another post-frontal snow. 6z showed post-frontal rain.

i want 70's if it isn't going to snow.

Maybe for you down there!

We had enough snow, and outside of that heat burst last week, it's not like we've been torching. Next week still looks chilly. Stuck at 27 currently.

Again basically nothing here that shows a moderate risk. A couple tree limbs down ain’t no widespread outbreak. It was an enhanced day maybe DC ne to NJ that’s it.

It was not a moderate risk by any definition. Just cause there was a lot of small wind reports does not a moderate make. You need 75+mph wind reports and ef2+ tornadoes. Again moderate risk are rare and what we had the other day happens regularly around here. If that was a moderate risk how was this day a slight risk down south?

Both of my game cams reported 8F at 7am in bittinger. 3k ft.

we really couldn't have done better that past 3 months than we did. think about 22/23, 23/24, and 24/25 and this winter really made up for that crap. I'm thankful we had that at least. now we can all feel the sun again:)