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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
OSUmetstud replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago: -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Astra did a really good job. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
OSUmetstud replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one. -
MORE damned heat and 75 dews next week?! Are you kidding me?! FFS.
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6z euro for tomorrows rain: >0.75” 12z NAM nest for tomorrow: 0.00”
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The MEI v2 was just released for JA: +2.5 vs +2.4 for JJ. That’s the 2nd bimonthly in a row at a record high for the bimonth (back to 1979). The record high for any bimonth is +2.9. Here’s the rundown for JAs of +0.5+: 2026: +2.5 1997: +2.3 2015: +2.0 1982: +1.9 1987: +1.5 2002: +1.0 1986: +1.0 1994: +0.9 2004: +0.8 2009: +0.6 2006: +0.6 1993: +0.6 2023: +0.5 2018: +0.5 1979: +0.5 -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Brian5671 replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Where's all the heat you said was coming to to the area? El Nino? EL BUSTO! -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
40/70 Benchmark replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue. -
Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
Brewbeer replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
what an awful way to cast something as important as a vote, especially when the alternatives were better prepared, better qualified and had better policy positions that would have helped everyday Americans a whole lot more than "Gulf of America" and "World Liberty Financial" -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
I drive by the Cambridge? Reservoir off of 95 quite often. I can’t believe how low it is. You can walk across parts of it. Water is confined to the middle. Can’t be good -
Not the whole winter. Maybe December.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Mikeymac5306 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Temps still in the upper 80's . Looks like the Eagles home opener is gonna be a little wet. It's still Summer Damnit! I'm not leaving the Summer thread yet! -
Paul, your site functionality is impressive. This must have taken a lot of work to get it all running, even with AI writing code. TBH, though, we are still not agreeing on the use of raw weather data to develop climate trends, although at really large scales there is little difference between the raw and processed. --Mike
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
FYP -
That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.
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Use of sensible weather analogs will pose a unique challenge this year given the rapid state of flux throughout the hemisphere....you can't take them at face value. -EPO predominated Winter 2018-2019, so given that this season should have a +EPO, flipping the anomalies may provide some value. Coolest se, warmest high plains.
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks like the AC goes back on for a few days. 83F/DP 69F -
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2018 looks like the early leader in the clubhouse.
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Pretty content with the 0.92" that fell here.
