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I agree, but can’t rule out a solid storm away from the coast. If you are on the coast south of Boston, I think you are porked for snowfall totals.

Today’s NOAA weekly relative ENSO release for last week: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 Nino 1+2 warmed up strongly (0.6). For the week, it obliterates the prior record back to 1981 of +3.5 (1997). It is only barely shy of the all time record for any week of +4.6 (6/29/1983). Nino 3 warmed up by 0.2 to +3.3. That’s a new record high for the week with it beating the +2.8 of 1997. The record for any week is +3.6 (12/29/1982). Nino 3.4 warmed slightly to +2.3. This barely beats the +2.2 of 1982 for the week. The warmest for any week is +2.9 (12/29/82). Nino 4 remained at only +0.1, which in combo with the way warmer Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, makes ‘26 easily the most E based Nino on record. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Yeah it is going to be warmer, but far from the worst case scenario we were looking at a few months ago Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

18z Euro is stronger than 12z (about 989mb at landfall), but the AI version is weak. I'm not sure I have a good handle on this one, either. A more northeasterly motion should align enough for some modest intensification, but much like Edouard, it's going to need time to coalesce. The ceiling is a hurricane, but I'm just not sure we get there. But we need a well defined low before hurricane models even get a good handle on things.

The HAFS suites look very realistic as opposed to the overdone operational parent. An assymetric system. The strongest winds may be well in advance of the COC by the time it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Nate from 2017 is a very similar system to what we have here from upper level setup over the gulf during the same time of year

The 18z hurricane models all strengthen this system to the 970s in the central gulf, but then shear and dry air rip it apart as it nears the gulf coast.

Even on that GFS operational run, there is a very fine line between a sheared lopsided mess and a hurricane. I don't have a good feel for this one other than perhaps to say that despite the favorable jetstreak to ventilate the system NE off the ECONUS, strong mid-level flow could easily wreck the system's ability to remain vertically stacked. That setup could entrain stable airmass as well. Needless to say, that run has me scratching my head to see 957 mb so near to landfall. If nothing else, perhaps we end the hurricane drought. Also, I should add that this setup looks pretty dynamic to help with dought conditions across the southeast with trough placement over Texas, GOM feed, and ample lift remaining after landfall.

send some up my way

That must have been a great prize for the summiting.

I did Bear Mt. in CT on Sunday. Trail wasn't bad, but three busloads of kids from The Gunnery at the summit!

How did it compare to the upcoming?...understanding it is tough to know what really happened in the 1800s....

Yes. Hiking and skiing on weekends are for the birds. I plan on doing neither for the balance of what ever time I have left on this planet.

Seems like Canada will provide the matches: the Atlantic, the gas. The NAO/PNA are the wildcards.

When something falls out of the sky, it’s going to fall. What falls out of the sky and reaches the surface is going to depend on the Contintenal “match” as the the warm SSTs will provide the gas.

Absolutely stunning Fall day. Lots of color already. Peak may be a bit early this year.

yeah, big concerns

As usual? WTF?

It seems to happen faster every year. Hopefully the upcoming El Niño will offset some of the gloominess until the pendulum swings the other way by providing us with multiple day rain events and subsequent periods of frozen mud shortly thereafter.

GFS drives a cat 3 into into Pascagoula