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gone

Those balloons matter, and their absence is notable in forecast accuracy. However, the implication that their absence is a primary contributor behind lacking forecast accuracy should be revisited.

my area barely hit 90 in 1996. that type of cool is gone

When it snows above 2,000ft even in New England (anytime of year), no one really cares lol. Above 8,000ft in the Bitterroot Mtns isn’t going to move the public interest needle much.

Grateful to get 0.44" of rain in a gusty thunderstorm. Temp dropped to 74 degrees. More storms west of us. Looks like a few storms to dodge at the concert in Clemson.

Models have been shitty,the MCS is going into the OV riding the boundary which looks to stationary,surprised they kept the 5% last update

2009?

lol yall

To be fair the regions described take up most of the eastern seaboard.

Mostly for inside the beltway to cover the urban watersheds that can flash quickly (Anacostia River, Sligo Creek, etc.) Some of the CAMs have been persistent in a narrow stripe of 1" -3" of rain in under 3 hours which would absolutely cause problems. The atmosphere is juiced with 70+ degree dewpoints.

lol yeah a real mystery

Unclear yet the exact timing of when the ridge breaks down/retrogrades to the W somewhat, but it should happen by early next week at the latest IMHO. Models have shown this for several days now. These NW ring of fire pattern can be quite good. If we can get a solid EML here, that means big potential for overnight convection. One thing I have noticed, overnight convection when an EML is present, the LTG is often wild, not unlike what occurs in the Plains/Midwest b/c the EML is a semi-permanent feature spring-fall here.

When would you say the heat done moves out? Some runs are having this go into Monday the 6th.

Do you mean 1995? That's when BOS hit 100 for the first time since July 21, 1977 (102 that day). It took that long for the UHI to catch up so they could reach 100 again. The temp sensor was moved from tucked back near the WSFO at Logan to the middle of the runways surrounded by water on 3 sides in the late 70s. July 14, 1995 was the 100 in BOS. July 15 is when CT tied their all-time record high of 106. In between this early on the 15th, the WxWiz and CoastalWx "fantasy" derecho occurred in NY and western New England. Easily the worst derecho in the last 50 years for the NEUS. https://www.weather.gov/aly/derecho1995

There’s a chance of storms popping up with little warning in this setup.

Genuinely questioned if the flood watch was a misinput. Can someone smarter explain why we have one till 10pm? @vortex95 @Eskimo Joe

Approaching 1/2" of rain today.

No rain in downtown Raleigh. Just some strong gusts from thunderstorm outflow. Looks like the eastern side of Falls Lake got a bit of rain.

Lot of the models have a messy day. Gfs is a soaker

What’s new, saw the clouds

July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC.

For the talk and hype about the upcoming heat, it is really will be confined to the Midwest to New England and TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Pretty tame for temps the other 70% of the CONUS this coming week. See 850 temp anomalies for the ECMWF valid 00z 7/2. Point being this is not summer of 1980, 1988, or 2012 wild levels (so far). Not downplaying the heat at all, just keeping things in perspective in the large scale. There is world outside DCA-BOS!

Check the July thread

we are never getting a 1996 summer again