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No chance with upper level winds like this

12Z GFS BIG HIT

Congrats to you all I40 south and east!

I am sure they are saying we are in the bullseye to soon, congrats DC lol

Seems like for every positive influence there’s an equal or worse negative influence.

Too bad. Would be a hell of a storm.

really want to give this until 12z tomorrow before totally writing off...well at least when talking about back towards and west of the CT River. This is going to be a really close call in the end

Gfs smokes the coast to Raleigh.

One of the biggest temperature swings coming up for Florida. West Palm Beach just set their new all-time January high temperature of 90°. Current model forecasts have them potentially getting their first freeze this weekend since 2010. Southeast Florida... West Palm Beach Ptcldy Sunny Mocldy Ptcldy Sunny Sunny Sunny /67 47/69 56/71 55/68 33/54 34/59 41/66 /20 10/00 00/10 20/30 20/00 00/00 00/00 Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Maximum Monthly Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 90 4 2 1942 89 0 3 2020 88 0 - 1926 88 2 Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1894-1895 24 0 2 1904-1905 26 0 3 1976-1977 27 0 4 1989-1990 28 0 - 1984-1985 28 0 - 1920-1921 28 5 - 1916-1917 28 0 - 1898-1899 28 0 5 1981-1982 29 0 - 1969-1970 29 0 - 1917-1918 29 0 6 1983-1984 30 0 - 1970-1971 30 0 - 1962-1963 30 0 - 1906-1907 30 0 7 1985-1986 31 0 - 1957-1958 31 0 - 1955-1956 31 0 - 1934-1935 31 0 - 1927-1928 31 0 - 1921-1922 31 0 - 1909-1910 31 0 - 1897-1898 31 0 8 2010-2011 32 0 - 2009-2010 32 0 - 1988-1989 32 0 - 1980-1981 32 0 - 1977-1978 32 0 - 1965-1966 32 0 - 1964-1965 32 0 - 1947-1948 32 0

12Z GFS is a nice hit. And then factoring in the 20:1 mentions in this morning's discussion. Would be a solid one.

GFS w 2' of snow at RDU by 93

I finally got to my analysis of Baltimore temp anomalies during Feb La Niña phase 1 since 1975 and I even added the results for the surrounding phases 8 and 2. Before I get to those, I also looked at La Niña Febs in general there, which averaged mild (intuitive). That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. There have been 20 La Niña Febs since 1975. The coldest anomaly was only -2 (2022) with next coldest of -1 (2021, 2006, and 1996). In contrast, the warmest was +8 (2023 and 2017) followed by +7 (1976) and +5 (2018, 2012, and 1984). The 20 averaged +2.3. So, any Feb Niña phase that’s NN would be relatively cold. ————— Here are the results for phases 8, 1, and 2 at Baltimore: Phase 8: 17 periods MB 0 B 6 N 4 A 3 MA 4 Avg: +44/61 days = +0.7 So, phase 8 was NN, which is 1.6 colder than the +2.3 average of all Feb Niña days. So phase 8 has been relatively cold. I suspect that this may come out as the coldest Niña Feb phase but I’d need a lot of time to go through the #s of the remaining phases to confirm that. The only phase with a decent chance to be colder than 8 is phase 3. So, that would be the next phase I’d calculate if I get time. ————— Phase 1: 16 periods MB 3 B 2 N 4 A 2 MA 5 Avg: +134 /52 days = +2.6 So, though it averaged a bit mild, that +2.6 was very close to the overall +2.3 avg for all Niña Feb days. ————— Phase 2: 18 periods MB 1 B 1 N 6 A 4 MA 6 Avg: +296/68 days = +4.4 —————— So, in summary for phases 8, 1, and 2: phase 2 is easily the true mild phase in all senses as its +4.4 is 2.1 warmer than even the +2.3 overall avg for all Niña Feb days. Phase 1 is in the middle with its +2.6 and phase 8 is the coldest with only +0.7.

GFS is going to be a big hit, but again, I would tread with caution given the complexity of the interaction as the low bombs out and consolidated

Wow! The piles down here in CT are impressive.

Monster GFS run again. For central and eastern NC

then we may not know for another couple days-alot of time you see a correction west when they chase convection

Heavy snow getting to the eastern Triad

Just a mess of different vort maxes, not consolidated. Always seems to be something messing the outcome up even if another factor becomes more favorable.

Yeah, I'm still giving it one more day but agree we're running out of time

It’s going to end up a tad worse than 06z. The trough axis is a tick further East.

I’d chase it if I didn’t have an appt I need to be at Monday morning.

I would be really surprised if we get much, if anything from this....Sometimes things have that look, maybe a few days ago this one did. At this point it just seems like once we get closer to go time, this storm will consolidate further off shore. Carolinas, maybe even the Delmarva region. Cape region still has a shot, but out here, meh

Yup…more suppression up here in advance.