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72 diwn here in Freehold, nj. Hazy skies but otherwise nice.

51 all we got here.

Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day. First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter. Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home. 2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983. Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit. We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County. (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl. Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6". We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)

57 so far at both my stations so far for the high.

Radar looks a little more scattered than the scattered I expected at this point.

Trees are really popping now.

First drops here, but no noise, or even lightning detection, yet... Edited to add that future radar shows more interesting stuff coming after this first slug between 6:30 and 7:30.

Understood. Standard deviations is one of a number of ways to gauge measure an event. Also, not all significant standard deviations, regardless of what wx parameter you chose, result in the same sensible wx or societal impact. Such as anomalously high 500 mb heights. That works for the heat in the Desert SW currently, but many times do not b/c first, we do not live at 500 mb, and second, what goes on at the near and the sfc is what matters. You can have record high 500 mb heights, but nothing special as to deviations for sfc temp b/c the strength and position of the sfc high relative to your location.

Stunner of a day. Currently watching March Madness on the patio with a margarita….lets go St John’s and UConn!

Thunder and lightning here

A few showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain are likely tonight into tomorrow. A somewhat cooler air mass will confine temperatures to the upper 40s in New York City tomorrow and Tuesday. Readings will then return to the lower and perhaps middle 50s by midweek. Another cold front could cross the region on Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +4.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.064 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

That's not the issue. His inaccurate claims concerning Phoenix in 1879 is the issue.

Got my live stream going fellas.I'm about to head out where I can see these storms. If I see anything good, I'll be putting up a link.

The storms are really getting underway out in western pennsylvania. Notice the lightning just slightly deviating south in the area that I noted supercell characteristics. That could be lightning displaced in the anvil, though. No shortage of cells out in western pennsylvania, starting to ark although i'm seeing a lot more cell mergers than splits. Pretty decent amount of lightning for this early in storm development.

I wouldn't trust warmth ... not that you are, just sayn'. Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back. It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too. It turned out to be one day's worth. Granted, it was a ginormous one day.. The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it comes to early lead and staying power in the guidance. I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector. They just get eaten at either end. Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range. There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone. Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring. Having said all that, there's a verifying tendency - so far - to revert back to an SPV gyrating around between Hudson Bay and Baffin Island... that's red flag for prick tease warm patterns.

LOL

I swear I’m hearing a lawn mower right now

All-time March record set in Indy at 88 today.

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning .

Plenty of warm air coming. Ensembles show strong ridging in East.

Below is how much faster the warming is just since 1960 at our local PHL Airport with their growing UHI problem. That warming slope is a wee bit different just around 25 to 35 miles west of the concrete and river warm oasis that is PHL Airport!

Some of these models especially the CFS has this for whatever reason are to amped when the Rossby Wave Train moves into the WP/MC.You dont seem to see these wind burst even pan out very well.The RMMS today seems to show this Rossby Wave further west than what they have been showing recently as some now show the MJO go back into the WP.It seems possible to me this Rossby Wave could strenghten the MJO signal into the Maritime/IO as we get into April

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat. I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review. lol. Standard deviation would settle it among scholars

Yeah. I mean you cant take winter forecasts with more than a grain of salt in Fall, much less spring. I was just pointing out sometimes colors look worse than they are. Milder winters mean nothing in terms of total snowfall here (as long as we avoid torch). Its about storm track or lack thereof. After two cold winters in a row with good snowcover but no impressive storms locally (largest was a surprise 6.2") my early gut instinct is that next winter sees less deep winter but a bigger storm, likely the biggest in 5 years or so.