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Neither the WB GEFS or its AI are showing cold enough air to support a snow storm on the weekend of the AI GFS blizzard on most of its members.

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AI EPS is pretty weenieish 13-16th

I've given up on anything reminding me of the gfs.

I told that moron on his own site that the next SSW was coming in February back in early December, when be was trying to claim one was coming near Christmas.

Because it’s a rope a dope

He's the Bakersville COOP that ive seen on there for the past 100 years? I'm not surprised now on why it's often so extreme

Only a 12 day Clown range at that…but I guess there’s a chance…

Speaking for myself, I'm obviously not debating CC, or the that the increase in the speed of the flow is real...my contention is that CC is having a negative influence on major east coast cyclogenesis via altered tropical forcing (increase in MC phases, and decrease in central Pacific phases) as a result of the disproportionately rapid warming of the west Pacific. I'm sure the fast flow doesn't help, but I don't think it's the primary inhibitor due to the success that other areas of the globe have with amplification...ie midwest and western Atlantic (Maritimes).

Got to 35 by me today. Felt downright balmy compared to some of the temps we have had lately. Tues, Wed, Thurs, and depending on the timing of that Arctic front Friday will get above freezing, if only by a couple of degrees, by me. Saturday, Sun will be in the deep freeze. .

Also that 2nd pic is incredible. .

Long fetch on that lake, need sustained night time lows well below zero, but even more importantly low wind. Big bay froze last year but was short lived and got smashed by wind

Amazing pics

Damn. Need a 30mi north shift.

@Carvers Gap had a good idea to post the Ft Sanders water pipe burst in this thread. He made good point about it being apart of the story with this event and it can be seen years later as people revisit this thread. .

Only 300 hours away

Euro bullseye! lol

Good luck NC/VA peeps

Oh no you mentioned sun angle. Time for someone to tell you that doesn't exist or something. As an aside - speaking of sun angle - everrywhere the sun has been the past two days has melted all the snow in my area

Do you know what that actually translates to at surface? Lol

Will, What days next week are these clown range threats? 13th?

Really an interesting Winter for expectation vs trend and actuality. I think models might be a little too overdone on the warm up though, although they do develop +epo for some time which can be very warm. GFS ensembles are really warm around V-day. If we go cold in the 2nd half of Feb, I think the price will rise again.

Happy V ditty…

Just curious, You don’t believe Will?

That’s a good idea. I’ll do it. .