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Come with me

^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird.

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be.

I'm concerned the supercharged heat dome will be fueled by the Super El Nino and surge into the Polar Vortex.

Stein forcefield in full effect here?!?

Very humid today but only 83 for a high today.

The coaching is awful. Gunner is in a total funk, yet they start him every game in the 2 hole. Give him a day off here and there, and move him down in the lineup. He is feeling the pressure and it only exacerbates his struggles.

Congrats Amherst again. Another 2 inches

I approved her account the other day

Those webbed hands have captured me

pouring in Reading as I wait for @dendriteand @stormtracker to answer my PM

Getting a decent shower now. Probably won't add much, but it'll soak in my tree fert.

Man that stuff is crushing Logan to Chelsea. What a pissah.

Starting to really fizzle

Hi of 82° today. I was expecting close to 90°. The sun never came back out in Greenfield after about 11am. Had a nice drink of rain around 4 PM.

There goes the curl booo

More cancellations July 3rd - 4th Little Steven MonmouthNJ 250 Freehold concert postponed due to heat

About to kiss lawn goodbye. It was a good run.

I will but you won’t.

If I stein again you’re in big trouble

Oh wow…missed that. Sucks for us up here. At least we still have Ekster at the office.

I hope so.

Be kind, everyone.

Is this still a supercharged heat dome? That’s the only way I’ll be impressed.

Detailed analysis in latest NWS Sterling discussion for the upcoming heat wave/ thunderstorm threat. Nice read with information that hopefully will keep people safe in the upcoming heat wave. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 345 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Heat Advisory for Wednesday has been expanded to include Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties. The Extreme Heat Watches for Thursday and Friday have been expanded to include Green, Albemarle, Nelson, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. Have included brief low precipitation chances focused around subtle boundaries over the next few days. DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat builds over the region through at least the end of the week. What may turn out to be the most intense heat wave since 2012 is on our doorstep. It is important to plan ahead on how to best keep safe from the heat. Have a plan on how to stay cool (and hydrated). Tips for the heat... -Keep Cool: If there is not access to air conditioning, you can look up nearby cooling centers through local county websites. Buildings that do not have air conditioning may remain hot for several days after the worst of the heat wave. -Stay Hydrated: Remember that drinks containing alcohol or caffeine actually dehydrate, so balance that with water or sports drinks. -Take It Easy: Try to limit strenuous outdoor activity (work, exercise, etc.) to early morning or late evening when it`s not as hot. -Dress For Heat: Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose fitting clothing; this helps reflect the sun and allows for airflow to keep cooler. -Look Before You Lock: Never leave anyone unattended in a vehicle as temperatures can reach lethal levels in a matter of minutes. -Check In With Each Other: Check in on family, friends, and neighbors. The elderly, very young, and those with compromised immunity or mental health are at an increased risk from heat. -Be Aware: Stay tuned to the latest heat alerts and forecast from NWS, and be mindful that prolonged extreme heat could impact power, water, and transportation systems. The meteorology... Low-level moisture has increased substantially with dew points well into the 70s in the valleys west of I-81. Combined with widespread air temperatures to around 90, this is resulting in heat index values of 100 to 105 in the lower elevations of western MD and eastern WV in the lee of the Appalachian crest. The heat will continue to build Wednesday as ridging continues to strengthen just to the south and west. Temperatures soaring well into the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s (west of the Blue Ridge) to lower 70s (east of the Blue Ridge) will lead to heat index values around or a little over 100 (west) and 105 (east) during the afternoon hours. This is covered with a Heat Advisory for all except the higher elevation zones, although there is growing concern that prolonged abnormal heat even at higher elevations could be impactful where there is limited AC available. Will evaluate as the event draws near to see if those zones need to be added. In the meantime, have expanded the advisory into Calvert and St. Mary`s Counties. It looks like the low-level moisture gets there a bit quicker than in previous cycles of guidance, possibly aided by slightly higher surface dew points in the vicinity of the tidal Potomac River and the Chesapeake Bay. Extreme Heat Watches remain in effect for Thursday through Friday when the heat peaks, and have been expanded to include all but the higher elevation zones (though again concern is growing for impactful heat even at higher elevations). Air temperatures are likely to near record values Thursday and Friday. Dew points will remain elevated especially east of the Blue Ridge resulting in widespread heat index values well over 100, with increasing potential to exceed 110 east of the Blue Ridge toward the metros. Areas near larger bodies of water (tidal Potomac River, Chesapeake Bay) could see spotty heat indices near 115 at times. The heat is likely to continue into Saturday, though the exact magnitude becomes increasingly uncertain several days out. This uncertainty is also raised due to potential for showers and thunderstorms that could put a lid on temperatures. Heat headlines are likely at some point, but confidence in reaching widespread warning criteria is low for now. Either way, it will likely be very impactful given it will be several days in a row of high heat and humidity. Sunday looks relatively "cooler" though temperatures likely still reach the 90s with elevated humidity. This could push us close to Heat Advisory criteria once again. Even at night, temperatures will stay in the 70s for most (perhaps not falling below 80 in the major urban centers). This keeps heat indices in the 90s most of the night, offering little to no relief from the heat. Lastly, the intense heat and humidity will likely result in poor air quality at times. Visit your state`s air quality information website for more information. KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chance increase through this weekend, with an increased risk for severe thunderstorms Friday into the Independence Day weekend. With excessive heat and humidity comes the potential for severe weather as abundant instability and moisture pool over the region. Any showers and thunderstorms through mid week should be very spotty. A few spots to look out for: near the intersection of a bay breeze and lee pressure trough Wednesday afternoon, and near the higher terrain Thursday afternoon. Most of the area/time will be dry, but any storms that do manage to form could produce very gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours or even some hail given large amounts of potential energy (CAPE). Upper-level ridging will gradually buckle Friday before flattening over the weekend into early next week as the broad subtropical high pressure shifts further offshore and a series of shortwave disturbances pivot through. Timing and coverage of storms have yet to be determined given the placement of synoptic/mesoscale features. With that said, looking at scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening period with damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning as the main threats. Storms may be of the pulse variety likely forming along the lee side trough east of the Alleghenies or residual outflows (i.e the bay/river breeze) due to the lack shear aloft Friday into Saturday. Of course this is subject to change based on any ripples of energy that move between over top of the ridge shunted to the south and the jet stream to the north (Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley). If this were to occur, we could be looking at more organized and widespread storm clusters, but confidence in this is low at this time. Multiple instances of deterministic/ensemble guidance illustrate this on both Saturday into Sunday as the ridge flattens further. Google AI WxNet along with CIPS/CSU AI probs illustrate this with rather high probabilities of severe weather this weekend. As we approach the Independence Day weekend, have a weather preparedness plan ready to go, especially if you are outdoors (i.e at a picnic with family or a fireworks show). Plan ahead for any outdoor activities this weekend, as they are likely to be interrupted by storms at some point. Have a way to get trusted warnings, download a radar/lightning app to keep aware of changing weather conditions, and know when to act. When thunder roars, go indoors. Lightning can strike up to 15 miles outside of the core of thunderstorms, so wait 30 minutes after that last rumble of thunder before resuming outdoor activities. Given the heat in place, some storms could be quite intense (if they form). From a historical perspective, prolonged near record heat in summer often ends in a period of strong storms. Intense storms can produce hail and high winds in addition to rain and lightning, so having access to sturdy shelter is important.