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it's east of 12z but who cares at this lead time

Let's see if the GEFS at 18Z is better. It was pretty bad at 12Z.

I wasn’t a fan of the evolution though. Looked like it would unravel south.

We got 16" on Boxing day, 10 miles away got 6". Insane gradient.

Looks awesome for us

This has been a trend and it sucks. While that often reverses eventually, you don't want to see it get buried any more at this point.

I think this would qualify as heavy snow: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

At hr 90 in the plains. Check the trends on the vort, moving west out of the lakes area to its current modeled spot. Part of me wonders if we want that to go even further now? Instead of every piece getting close but no cigar, maybe let some of the pieces spread out to the east and allow that westernmost part to do things itself? Idk just stupid speculation

Gfs crushes CNJ

of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro

In the end it's actually further west than 12z. Starts bombing further south though

That’s a big boy!

2/17 18z GFS total QPF >1.1 into NYC

Probably a good idea to mention no model is pretty close to the final solution yet.

18z GFS reminds me a lot of Boxing Day 2010. A storm that was so painfully close in eastern PA.

Congrats sema.

A lot of bridge jumping already on the 18Z GFS. Point is we have a nice storm to track and still 5/6 days away. Better than tracking cold and dry.

Never fails. Live look at the discussion thread.

Slow mover

You just like it because you gained 6”

I disagree. It is far more likely to jump us completely.

Still gets up here with big impact..but didn't expect it to.

Yeah...I swear the doom-posting with every SLIGHT change in the models every 6 hours if it doesn't show wall-to-wall HECS level snows in general is a pain in the ass and a huge one at that. Page after page of whining and saying we're toast, or "I told you that you all are just chasing a rainstorm but you wouldn't listen to my secret expertise!" You know what? We may be toast, but at this point who knows. But you know what else? Who cares. We track something interesting because we all are looking for snow, and we'll track it to the end or until such point that it looks like a loss. I'm not going to assume that "OMG it's trending badly, it's over!!!" because a couple of models seem to "back off" from 18" snow during some run. But it's no fun to sift through all the BS either. It would be nice to see the lower end of the goal posts converge on a few inches or so of snow for this upcoming potential, that would be a fun event...with an upper end of a serious MECS (or better!) possible. The whining and over-concern worry is bad enough with any event, but the troll-like posts are way over the top, up to and including actually disparaging professional mets and others in here who are very knowledgeable. That just crosses a big red line. So yeah, maybe not outright "banning" those that engage in that, but the old 5-posting would help. Maybe that would make those who are deliberately shit-stirring and trolling think twice...but if not, they at least wouldn't be posting more than 5 times within some time frame.

I rather blog for a crack-whore's venereal disease.

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over