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Euro op verbatim actually had a SSW wind reversal at 12z. That's an outlier, obviously needs to be tossed. There's been no support for that. Weird set of runs at 12z though. It's strange to me seeing the EPS more bullish than the GEFS in the strat... Usually it's the opposite. Euro AI is more like American guidance, but I don't know how well the Euro AI handles the strat either. Will be interesting to see which idea is more correct. It's crazy early to be just considering any of that too but here we are.

Stick season.

Happy Friday! In the past I used to have some folks even here on Americanwx suggest my East Nantmeal Davis VP2 runs too cool (some here used to say the East Nantmeal Icebox etc.) thinking I might have a siting or equipment issue, I ran the numbers. I would welcome any pushback on the method or the results. I used only stations that report on a midnight to midnight day, so morning and evening COOP observation times do not skew the comparison. That gives 20 Chester County Area stations: the DEOS network, KPTW, KMQS, KOQN and the Avondale 2N Climate Reference Network site. Against Avondale USCRN, the best reference we have, over 7,198 days with data from both stations (2007 to now), my highs run 1.4 degrees cooler and my lows run 1.4 degrees warmer. The average difference is +0.01 degrees. That is the classic upland elevation based signature at 678 FT: cooler afternoons, and milder nights as cold air drains off the hill. A poorly sited station usually shows the opposite, with cold nights in a frost hollow or cool afternoons only on sunny days from shade. Across the full network since 2012 my average is 0.68 degrees below the network mean. The USCRN site is 0.63 below, and Warwick DEOS, my nearest neighbor, is 0.56 below. Daily highs line up with elevation at about 5 degrees per 1,000 ft. Mine sit 0.7 degrees below that line, about where the other aspirated sensors (USCRN and the KPTW ASOS) also sit. A cheap passive-shield station on a pole right next to my Davis reads highs 3 degrees warmer, and 3.3 degrees warmer on sunny days. Most backyard stations people compare against use passive shields, so an aspirated sensor will usually look cool next to them in the afternoon. Let me know if any questions or if you see anything that does not hold up (see detail below) as I have always strived to show the most accurate possible data for the climate here in good old Chesco!

Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota (Population 9,477) has been on a recent streak of warm Septembers. 2026 - 65.3F (12th warmest) 2025 - 65.6F (9th warmest) 2024 - 67.7F (warmest) 2023 - 66.3F (5th warmest) 2022 - 64.0F (22nd warmest) 2021 - 64.8F (14th warmest) The most recent September to fall below the 20th century average was September 2020, at 60.6F (62nd coolest)

Happy Friday! In the past I used to have some folks even here on Americanwx suggest my East Nantmeal Davis VP2 runs too cool (some here used to say the East Nantmeal Icebox etc.) thinking I might have a siting or equipment issue, I ran the numbers. I would welcome any pushback on the method or the results. I used only stations that report on a midnight to midnight day, so morning and evening COOP observation times do not skew the comparison. That gives 20 Chester County Area stations: the DEOS network, KPTW, KMQS, KOQN and the Avondale 2N Climate Reference Network site. Against Avondale USCRN, the best reference we have, over 7,198 days with data from both stations (2007 to now), my highs run 1.4 degrees cooler and my lows run 1.4 degrees warmer. The average difference is +0.01 degrees. That is the classic upland elevation based signature at 678 FT: cooler afternoons, and milder nights as cold air drains off the hill. A poorly sited station usually shows the opposite, with cold nights in a frost hollow or cool afternoons only on sunny days from shade. Across the full network since 2012 my average is 0.68 degrees below the network mean. The USCRN site is 0.63 below, and Warwick DEOS, my nearest neighbor, is 0.56 below. Daily highs line up with elevation at about 5 degrees per 1,000 ft. Mine sit 0.7 degrees below that line, about where the other aspirated sensors (USCRN and the KPTW ASOS) also sit. A cheap passive-shield station on a pole right next to my Davis reads highs 3 degrees warmer, and 3.3 degrees warmer on sunny days. Most backyard stations people compare against use passive shields, so an aspirated sensor will usually look cool next to them in the afternoon. Let me know if any questions or if you see anything that does not hold up (see detail below) as I have always strived to show the most accurate possible data for the climate here in good old Chesco!

NAO of -2.0

Make that an NAO of 2.0.

The desired pattern occured in 2009 - 2010 when we had an AO at -2.0 and a - AO of 3.50. Will this ever happen again with an El Nino of +1.5???

Euro selling 70s

Some here don't recognize a simple troll job when they see it lol.

Serotonin surge as I walked to my car from my clinic. We could be looking at a very comfortable Halloween.

Thank you Canderson!!! You and me both let's keep these kind of posts out of this forum!! Most folks could care less about climate change or alarmism etc.! Thanks again!!

Again you are using altered post hoc data that is not the actual raw historical data....

Definitely a chilly one. Was kinda cold getting out of work at 6am.

I can’t speak for people speaking in absolutes. My position/prediction is that the pattern will be unfavorable the vast majority of the time. Not going to sugar coat that part. Also won’t say “it won’t ever snow.” I don’t even do snow predictions on a seasonal scale, not my thing or main area of interest.

More times than not, a -AO and a -NAO occur simultaneously. Probably more so in Nino. -AO tends to bring the colder air southward instead of keeping it bottled up well north- which is obv important- but a NAO block tends to lock in cold HP in an ideal spot for coastal storms.

Gotcha, my bad there.

Yes. Perfect track Miller A rainstorms.

The main thing is that Miller A’s will make their return and instead of 0-1 this season we will have 6-8

I’m trynna come up with a snarky remark to this post - which is interesting - but I am hungover and just not on all 8 today. Sorry to let you down boys and girls.

Can y’all please take this shit to the correct forum? I’m a staunch climate change believer but even I’m like, please lord.

I can dig 30s at night and then 50s and 60s during the day...preferably 60s but keep this going through November.