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I'm thinking about declaring myself done with winter and "over the cold", and thus ready for spring. Prob make the decision here in a few days.

Nice look for the HV too. Should be all snow here.

Yes, that all makes sense as to the reasoning on how to organize the info within the disco. Thanks for additional background! It seems that any changes are always well thought out and include feedback. Hope my initial reaction didn't imply I doubted that process occurred. Far from the case.

How many times have we heard this one, just amazing how none of these storms pan out.

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

Every six hours we pull out the sorting hat.

Looks like EPS trended the boundary more south. Good for now, but don't want too much suppression (still unlikely)

Yeah every model kept coming west. Gfs of course back then was lagging.

Appreciate it, honestly I haven’t been looking too hard - just doing a little light complaining lol. I would def be happy with a half inch.

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the precip field the next few cycles.

Something to watch tonight for us snow starved weenies. The HRRR is trying to bring a band of rain/snow mix and some minor accumulations in the upper foothills

The short-range models completely missed this little low or whatever it is.

Good luck gentlemen! Headed to Japan next week, hope I’m talking about feet of snow while I’m skiing out there. Maybe I’ll remember to take pics for once ha!

Remember the storm modeled on or around 3/17/17 that was showing 12"+ for a good part of New England, then completely evaporated? I think it was withing 48-72..I know not the same idea but that was a pretty drastic change.

Ahh yes...thought it was later in the season. That was a brutal, brutal bust.

This thread being “hot” and walking into this discussion must be quite the letdown for anyone just catching up

That was March of 2018.

Welcome to the shaft zone.

I’m not exactly stoked about the Ensembles from what I could tell. Perhaps I’m missing something. Hard to score below Roxboro in that pattern.

Then there’s between the 2…

SO much chaos in the northern stream. Kick some of that out and it's almost automatically going to help modeling produce more consistently. JMO.

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east.

Maybe in retrospect a separate thread might have been better- we have 2 camps of folks in here talking past each other lol

Have had flurries. Keep the column ready for later.

Definitely shows more on the ridge-tops versus valleys. Seems a generally 1-3” looks best with higher elevation lollipops of 4-5” possible .