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LGA must not have bothered to measure. It seems unlikely they didn't get something measurable.

i am a weenie lol i need to hold onto ANY hope i can

Final Snowfall Totals from the Snow Squall: Bridgeport: Trace Islip: 0.4" New York City-Central Park: 0.5" New York City-JFK Airport: 0.4" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: Trace Newark: 0.7"

Lol I appreciate your optimism and usually I am optimistic too. But that low pressure near the outer banks is barely budging north. I hope the northern stream comes in hot and heavy, and perfectly timed. I'll be glad if I get a dusting.

Wind don’t care

They still have value for guidance. Some runs/periods are better than others. At times they’ve been stellar while at other times they’ve been in the commode. Overall they’re the best that we have for the long range, which is very hard for models to forecast. But in this case, the medium range of the Euro has been in the commode with too cold apparently! Before this, the medium range of models had been too warm for that cold 3 week period and for 12/29-1/1.

Probably not accounting for radiational cooling and snow.

18z GFS continues the trend of baby steps in the right direction. Interesting...

This makes sense. If it weren’t for… threats/possibilities… like these, and potential tracking of such, I’m not sure this forum would have the life it still does. Any hope of winter weather gets me pumped, and every dash is a dagger. I feel like a junkie. True to form, I keep coming back. That said, this place is an alternative to the mainstream, and given many of the posts, one that you can learn something from. Some posts are leaning social media-esque, but what can you reasonably expect these days? Same posters spout legit knowledge on the board in the next post, so the value is clear. I recall lurking in the 2009-2010 winter, and yeah it’s a different landscape, but with much of the same crowd. Perhaps the point about thread creation is legit, but we’ve been in a shitty long term pattern that we still do not understand for a good while. I feel that there will be a turning point at which time some decent winter weather returns to the Mid-Atlantic, and hopefully that doesn’t take too much longer. Climate is like that, until it isn’t. It’s exciting to see the short term changes though, and that’s why I still enjoy his place.

Anyone think tonight’s lows are not accounting for snow? BOX showing low of 12F here, last weekend we bottomed out at 2F

Still a bit interesting especially since we have nothing else on the immediate horizon

Weeklies were really good last year I’ll give them that but they’ve been useless this winter

18 z GFS gives me .25"

It is stronger and sharper with the NS vorticity but digs it southward a bit too late. Still a minor improvement at the surface and a trend towards the Euro.

Chance of a light event for Saturday is still alive

Tick the right way? Almost some interaction between streams. Tries to get some precip more north

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass.

Damn straight. Ill take a half inch any day. The .2” i got this morning excited me.

Makes more sense to me.

We're getting some 'giga' movements from the ens means at large scales. It's sort of yawing between a -EPO and a -EPO/+PNA hybrid. The -EPO version is the giant warmup ... The operational GFS had a hard-on and went a bit ludicrously extreme at 12z. The latter type is colder, faster pattern change but at varying speed/unknown. Not sure really which way to go with that. Like I said this morning and still maintain, we really need to get through this week's demolition of the N. Pacific ridge before we can really truly stop getting head-gamed.

Just curious, what have been your seasonal totals past seasons? Not many posters in the valleys west of the spine. I think myself, you and maybe 1 or two up in NVT maybe also.

GFS is blah. Gets precip up to Southern MD and away she goes (east)

Seems more like after the 10th or so.

The ensemble read off the EPS is a winter storm of sorts signal around 14th followed by a cold intrusion. Obviously at 2 weeks lead that highly subject to change - but the 12z read...

A snow squall associated with an Arctic cold front brought Central Park its first measurable New Year's Day snowfall since 1987. In the wake of the frontal passage, a series of cold days lies ahead. The first week of January could have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. If that happends, it would be the coldest opening week of January since 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. Milder weather could develop on or around January 7th. The milder period appears likely to last for about a week, but there is some uncertainty about its duration. Afterward, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.973 today.