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I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an establishes El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all.

I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.

BS Chuck. Sorry but neither you nor any other person is better than the model consensus . Do you think they're not using analogs too? The models will have their errors, but the consensus is overwhelming. And don't be narrow-minded . The mean Aleutian Low has not been proged to get started until next month. But before the mean trough is established, you're going to get transient lows in the area, which is what has been happening. And that loop is for 1 run. Go back to older runs of the ensembles and you will see multiple lows showing up.

No rain til Halloween?

59/38 split today. Nice day for fall baseball. Too bad my kids’ teams stink.

Temp down to 43 degrees.

Thats insanity

It's the best ENSO/PDO analog since the 1800s, and the global pattern has taken on its own momentum recently, so recent analogs have much greater weight than older ones. Long term models have shown major ENSO-default bias, in the last few years. Aleutian low typically becomes an established ENSO pattern in October. This is not it at all. ENSEMBLE LOOP You are referring to a 3-day period of weakly established N. pacific low. I think that's the 5th time I've heard you refer to that happening.

Contract BS doesn't really exist...almost sure of it. Feels like something the fans started--nah invented--in 2022 in the absence of more info on his injury. And the narrative that refuses to go away, lol Lamar has never been like that (i.e. "holding in" and using an injury to do so). Dude loves the game too much I think Lamar is more cautious to not make things worse--and if it were later in the year I think he plays through this (2022 pcl sprain with swelling more serious). It kinda sounds like the team may have made the decision to sit him out this week too... That being said you're right about this week...2 weeks for a sprain like this oughta be enough and given the situation...he HAS to come back!

Why the F do people keep focusing one 1 year as the reason why every Niño since can't snow? The models screwed up that year...period! P.s. There has been an Aleutian low multiple times within the last few weeks. Obviously, you're not going to establish a mean low there yet this early in any winter season.

23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes.

Why would we need to stop focusing on it when it's one of the strongest correlated variables there is? It's completely dominating the Strongest El Nino on record in the N. Pacific so far. Philly, Balt and DC are near record lows for snowfall since 2016 when the core -PDO set in. Near the coast a few events really skews your total. It's like saying Pensacola Fl had a 10" snow event so therefore everything about a 10 year pattern is not relevant

Officially, first 32 degree temperature this morning.

It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sunny but chilly October day. The hummingbird migration appears to be completed.

Latest Euro extended fwiw. Could look a lot worse than this heading into Met winter.

Need to stop focusing on it. It isnt the end all. What we need to overcome it is a -EPO, and an AO that isnt absurdly positive. We have had multiple snowstorms since 2015 with a less than favorable PDO, and in most of those cases there was an EPO ridge and a non hostile AO state.

I know you asked Chuck, but my answer would be that the marine heat wave off Japan either has to dissipate or migrate east to just off the western North America coast. Problem is, the marine heat wave runs deep about 100-200m not just at the surface, so its harder to mix that out.

What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?

Temp down to 46 degrees.

Lamar needs to play this week. His ankle sprain is mild. I doubt Mahomes would have missed any time. He needs to be willing to play less than 100%. Get yo ass out there and practice, and play on gameday. Stop with the contract BS. You will get paid. Go effing play.