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Eastern NC folks could get something Monday. New NAM

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

Congratulations, everyone. The HOT donuts sign is on for this thread. Haha! Now, I am gonna go watch some football.

If we see that really cold shot between Dec 14-16, I would say we have a 50/50 shot(or better) at a strong anafront. As for Sunday night, I have no idea...it is interesting to see the GFS hang onto that. Overall, we need that ridge to backup just a bit. I see where several folks on other forums have been talking about -PNA. I don't know if that is a true -PNA. That looks like a +PNA on modeling, and it is centered a bit too far to the east.

Models haven't missed by much with the exception of the 4-5 day SER/feedback hiccup. They really haven't amplified the pattern with just a few exceptions. Mid-month may well change that. I think the wavelengths are just flatter, and that may help us later on as this will be tough to dislodge as climo gets increasingly colder. This has been a pretty cold start IMBY. I do think there is a window for a piece of the TPV to drop into NA to lower latitudes than the GL. Also, you noted that the Pac NW has been pretty active. That Pac flow also might be modifying the colder temps at the base of the trough, and that was shown on modeling. Interestingly, the Sierra Nevadas in California and the Colorado Rockies have been stuck under that ridge, and are way, way BN on snowfall. Lastly, the pattern doesn't really amplify in phase 7 of the MJO, but it can w/ phase 8. I think modeling erroneously tried to loop the MJO, and that made a mess. Now, it is forecast to stall by some models in phase 8. It may just keep on making the circuit, but...it did make a turn(per the EMON) today which could signal a stall. We will know more in a few days. Overall though, this has been a very cold start IMBY.

Oh my bad. All 52!

This is including all 51 states, I see

Got all the ingredients for an overachiever. Hoping for 4-6 out my way

The GFS may score here as the same thing as far as mosisture is concerned may do as last System. It kinda looks like an anafrontal wave deal or Lee Low Snow Print.

Record low on Deb 14 in Nashville was 6 degrees back into 1917,so that would break our record if it were to be correct

Yes significant in the precip field. The NAM was pretty good last time, despite being taken out to the wood shed for it’s impending doom.

Congratulations, man!!! I just now saw this. Second half of winter is a toss-up for me. I tend to think the pattern we see right now will repeat and/or be very hard to break down. If this was an amplified pattern, I think it breaks down quickly. But these flatter wavelengths are gonna make it tough to budge. Cosgrove likes a backloaded winter and has sound analysis to back it up. I am gonna roll with 95-96 light. That would mean a cold start followed by a warmup which is followed by the worst of winter per Cosgrove. Now, that runs against my seasonal ideas, but it sure looks like that is on tap. My original ideas are winter in December followed by a gradual warm-up for Jan-Feb. I may still get that if December goes in the tank, ie Jan-Feb would almost have to be warmer against the norms. But Jan and Feb could be colder than my original ideas. The big thing for me is that the coldest air on the planet is here and in Asia. Our source regions have been lacking in recent years, but not this year. With the QBO at -25.35 for November(and an unexpected drop after what appeared to be the plateau before it rises), it sure looks like winter still has some life in it for Jan-Feb...I would guess the NAO is about to fire up. These strat warming episodes could very well make for some cold mischief during January.

It’s looking like 1-3” Sunday night into Monday with the Clipper.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!! It’s still Autumn.

Yes, that's another reason that makes sense. I was actually wondering earlier today if the wind shifted to the NW that even without a frontal passage our Temp would fall due to upstream snowcover.

It’s also terrible for your car when it messes with the paint.

12/5: 1.3"

It is back to 6" for portions of Sullivan Co on the 12z today. The AIFS has 1-3". I still think it is over done, but the GFS can sometimes score a weird coup from time to time. For now it is an extreme outlier. I wouldn't be surprised for NW facing slopes to see 1-2" out of that system tomorrow night.

I guess I still go by 1980 to 2010 Averages more. The Avgerages have really jumped over the year's and the thing is that's not always caught is the last sevral Year's that jump is added on in the NWS Station Avgs. The Avg high for Pennington gap this Date was 47 Hi 27 low in 2010 I think. So, average is running below that for the balance but not extreme( however, I think that has gone up some now). KTRI now says the Average high there is like 51 or so Low 31 I think. That's several degrees milder than used to be for there. So, with "Today's" Averages we're running a good bit below. the point basically being the difference in comparison to our west and East. There is a Spike through here of not of below as the aforementioned. I think John actually hit it with the western Ridge Height as far as the point being addressed. I see your reasoning though as the cold we have got has been constant. Of which is a rarity, especially this early.

The mountains aren't exactly running above average most of the past 6 or 7 years either. Without NW flow snow its been pretty poor everywhere.

18z NAM shifts north for Monday

It was a nice snow burst whitening the ground earlier but now a memory.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!!

And a great question I might add. A great question is always better than a great answer....The more I think about it, the more I think it is because they have more snow cover right now. The trough is just a tick too far to the East right now as well.

I definitely get that. I know a lot haven't been as fortunate as some of us in the mountains. Just waiting and watching.