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please explain Ji. He hasn't gotten 'there' yet in 15+ years

Here's the 132 hour cumulative total of ICON QPF ... LOL wow. this is awesome...

Horrible game. Can't even win a snowstorm either!

unsurprisingly, LES threat dead on this side of the lake and for better or worse, thurs/fri duster probably going to be one of the better winter weather events of the month

@metagraphica do you know exactly what you got on 1/28-29/22 blizzard?

I agree strongly with everything written except this. I believe these features are not causally connected. They are only loosely correlated, and always in hindsight. Besides that, the trof IS clearly sufficiently sharp for a major event. But the synoptic details (which you correctly mention) impede development in a way that would impact us locally.

ICON wants nothing to do with the 18th threat. As unlikely as it seemed a few days ago, we might have to punt most of January. I remember all the talk about winter cancel and winter over in January 2021 after that month was dry and mild. Similarly, there was evidence of a big pattern change and a shift to colder and stormier across the US by end of January and would last through February. That panned out very well, and it saved winter. But years like 2021, 2013, 2006, 2015 are few and far between. If the 18th doesn't work out either, it's quite possible that winter has shown its cards and it'll be time to pack up. Long range Euro and GFS looks great with ample cold and chances for snow through early Feb and it doesn't seem to be losing the pattern change either. But who's to say the rest of the chances for snow won't go the way the 16th and 18th went?

Do you feel better now?

Yeah, the teleconnection indices are becoming more favorable for us in that time frame than they are this week.

Low of 26 with a trace of snowfall. Also, I had .45" from Saturday's rain. I've been a bit out of the loop but it seems the potential for a big hit late this week has diminished. Always more ways to make an out than get on base. Oh well, I still think we'll see several periods with flakes in the air and the cold looks to stay mostly entrenched. That's good enough for me. Onward.

For those who want a highly simplified but easy-to-understand description of sensitivity analysis, one can reference the following: https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/statistics/sensitivity-analysis. And for those who want insight into the estimated probability, applying multiple variations to the model value, assessing the probability against a benchmark (1991-2020 normal value) using a normal distribution.

I'm not too enthused with the upcoming wave on Wednesday night/Thursday morning for Knox county. We might see some flurries/light snow, but I doubt we will get anything more than a dusting. Hopefully NE TN gets a little more from it. The weekend system could be interesting because of the potential for high ratio snows with how cold the models are showing, but we still have a ways to go for that system.

Don, if you go with uncertainty analysis or probabilistic analysis, then I think we're on the same page. But not sensitivity analysis. Early in most months it should be close to a coin flip whether the month will end up above or below normal. Our climatic base state relative to previous decades is warm, so we hedge warm to start. And then Bayesian updating based on long-range modeling.

Of course not... but this isn't about the virtuous journey in pursuit of objective understanding in here. You kidding? You're dealing with weather drama -related dopa addicts LOL The dealer got arrested and didn't make the scene - so now your attempting to explain things to the open-mindedness of withdraw rage. Hey, more power to ya -

Yeah, It would be cool if we knew how many hr 384 KU's that the GFS use to have that actually worked out.

Wild guess here but, I'm betting few or no one is going to be interested in this. I'm actually curious at this point if we can hop-scotch our way through this +d(PNA) without getting anything at all like these ICON's and GGEM ideas. This thing has been plagued by this the whole way. As a snap observation, it seems even in +PNAs the fast nature of the circulation foot is crowding and not letting kinematics be conserved at small scales (cyclone) in lieu of the frenzy in the hemisphere...

So much boredom . So much

The January 15-16 event was highly unlikely to be a big snowstorm from the onset even if some social media accounts warned of a "big one." Aside from occasional operational GFS runs (unsupported by the other guidance and the various ensembles), no big event was on the table. Three important reasons apply: 1) The AO-/PNA+ pattern is just getting established. The trough was not likely to be sufficiently sharp for January 15-16. 2) There are numerous areas of vorticity competing with one another. The probability that the various areas of vorticity will develop into a single consolidated low that takes an ideal track for a classic NE snowstorm is low. Large splashes of color on vorticity maps don't always translate into surface potential. Neither do deep 500 mb lows. There's a lot involved for the upper levels and surface to become aligned. 3) The realistic scenarios of a light impact had been available for some time, even as the exact solution was outside the range of the guidance regarding the ability to resolve synoptic details. During the 1/11 0z EPS cycle, a single ensemble member had 6"+ snow (none had 10"+) and during the 1/11 12z EPS cycle, no ensemble members had 6"+ snowfall in New York City. For Boston, the figures were 6 and 4 members respectively. Bottom line: the probability of a significant NE snowstorm was low; the probability of a major NE snowstorm was extremely low. Based on the above three reasons, I never incorporated the idea of a significant or major snowstorm into my daily posts regarding the January 15-16 timeframe. If one is constructing a checklist, one needs both a favorable pattern and favorable synoptic details to get a KU-type snowstorm. If either is lacking, the probability of such an outcome is low. When both are lacking (as is the case regarding January 15-16), the odds are close to zero.

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes.

We haven't even had a single model graphic posted in this thread. Its that bad.

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs. It's odd. You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!! Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal. Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low? Huh? Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen! Big difference than 24 hr ago as well. The 500 cuts off *well* W of New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region. That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea. However, it's not titled below. The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted! But we never got any sig precip to begin w/! CoastalWx's worst nightmare! LOL. Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably. Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region. And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS! The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend. It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN. Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows. Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!? I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!

Sorry Don. You're not a statistician. And what you describe is not sensitivity analysis.

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like.

lol this place cracks me up.

Bullying works in this context. The young ones always go thru this transition. Some slower than others. But they get there.