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Over 4” at the farm in Louisburg since yesterday and still pouring

@WxWatcher007 home brew next weekend???

0.5” Friday night. 1.6” last night. Total for July so far: 7.3 “ The Falls Lake watershed has been the place to be the last two months.

I realize that and was talking more generally about the DJF means. 1997-1998 had the strongest connection between the Aleutian low and the low across the Southern Tier of the CONUS. There is always going to be variability from month to month and season to season between different super El Ninos. By 2015-2016 the Aleutian low was weaker along with the low in the Southeast even with the strong +PDO. 2023-2024 also had a weaker Aleutian low that split into two pieces. So the low across the Southeast was weaker than 1997-1998 also in the means. It’s possible that the warming climate leading stronger and more extensive ridges and weaker troughs is playing a role also.

lol

locked in

Gorgeous clear morning! 68 degrees out.

Non-stop rain tonight.

I've been thinking about this too. Makes you wonder if with CC what is typical of el nino could be changing or if we've just been oversubscribing a small sample size. Either one says we aren't necessarily going to get a big GOA low. It also says maybe the El nino - PDO connection is less settled than we think.

Rain just keeps regenerating over my area. It just pluses up, dies down and pulses up again. It doesn't really move at all. It's been raining for hours now from it.

I’m educatedly guessing that the weekly relative Nino 3.4 will rise from last Monday’s +1.2 to +1.4 in today’s release. I’m guessing 1+2 will be in the +2.7 to +2.8 range. These weeklies are OISST based. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.

I’m offering to perform this same kind of MADIS-inspired quality-control and calibration analysis for other personal weather-station owners. The analysis can examine data completeness, outages, nearby independent reference stations, duplicate feeds, temperature and humidity bias, pressure accuracy, wind multipliers, rainfall performance, and solar or ultraviolet readings where available. I would need at least 90 days of timestamped station. and for now I would analyze a maximum of one year. At minimum, I would also need the station location and elevation, hardware and sensor models, siting details, and any correction settings or known equipment changes. Anyone interested can direct-message me with their station information and available data. TLDR...... I take your station’s historical data and compare it against nearby independent weather stations, airport observations, MADIS/Xweather records, and local climate data. I clean the records, remove duplicate or unreliable stations, identify outages and bad readings, then measure how your temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, rain, solar, and UV differ from the best available references. From that, I produce a plain-language report showing what is accurate, what is biased, and which calibration settings should be kept, changed, or verified. I've slowly build it out.I’d describe the system as about 80% automated at this point. I collect the station and nearby reference data, then the system automatically cleans it, removes duplicate or unreliable feeds, identifies gaps, calculates biases, and generates most of the comparisons. I still manually review unusual results, confirm the best reference stations, and decide what calibration recommendations are scientifically defensible, and not just giving your wind data witch craft spells so it matches KMDT better and doesn't require rooftop thuggery. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Just getting crumbs compared to Wake and Harnett, but back building of moderate rain has yielded 0.40". 1.93" for the month.

That’s the heaviest rate I’ve ever observed. Several flashes of lightning, board clear, 12 minutes later 1” and ended up 2.75 for the hour

It depends on how early the el nino dissipates. If it peaks earlier than normal (in the fall, rather than winter), then we might get a robust la nina that challenges 1973-74 and 1988-89 (both of these, of course, followed robust el ninos).

What goes up, must come down... right? Wonder if we're in store for a Super LA Nina for 2027 - 2028.

This is what I was trying to get across to Adam. Like I have been saying, this isn't something I want, so it's not out of bias. @bluewave can tell you how I resistant I was to the idea in the lead up to 2023...I mocked him and made light of it, and the dude nailed it. No harm in getting it wrong....well do, just learn from it and be willing to adapt.

This is absolutely relevant to the ENSO discussion. U.S. weather is influenced by El Niño, and this entire thread is speculating about what it may mean for winter. But it is summertime right now, Niño 3.4 anomalies are already off the chart, and SST anomalies are nearing strong El Niño territory. The possible effects do not wait for December to begin.

Good for you guys in the east,this should help out with the drought anyways,. Ninos are always generally wet in Mid TN.in summer,kinda be surprised if anyone in TN has any drought as we head into fall

Incidentally, contemporary observers in 1936 did not simply pretend weather history began with the official national series. So I highly doubt anyone in 1936 was objecting that it was not really the hottest because the national record did not reach back to 1776. The chief of the Iowa Weather and Crop Bureau described July 1936 as the hottest in at least 117 years, drawing on regional observations extending back to 1819. The official CONUS record begins in 1895 because that is when coverage becomes adequate for a consistent national average — not because no weather observations existed earlier. We have scattered instrumental records from the eighteenth century and a rapidly expanding national network by the mid-nineteenth century. No, we cannot calculate an apples-to-apples CONUS average for 1776. But given the magnitude and enormous geographic footprint of July 1936, it is exceedingly difficult to believe that a still-hotter national July occurred in the preceding century without leaving a conspicuous instrumental and historical trail. “Hottest on record” is entirely correct — and 1936 was very likely exceptional over a considerably longer period.

That October 2011 event makes you remember when "snow maps" were still a new thing, and Met offices didn't know how to use them exactly, especially in the shoulder seasons. "Dumb guy snow output" ended up being too low. HWO THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY From AFD THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD