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  2. Funny last night for no reason I was thinking about derechos and the pronunciation It is written
  3. I'm in that camp too unless it migrates west quicker and becomes more of a Modoki Nino
  4. 12z NAM really bakes the Carolinas and even south of RIC on Friday. Several locations make a run at 100°.
  5. It is a blister of a day out there, the humidity after this dry spell feels like the sky is drubbing you! 29C/84F with a humidex of 38 likely, wow. I foresaw a delay of possible storms til after 5pm and TWN revised their rain from 25-30 to 5mm in line with WUN.
  6. SPC has us in a marginal risk on Thursday and a slight risk on Friday. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an upgrade for Thursday in future outlooks.
  7. Getting excited for this one. I wish I didn't have to work because I'll be stuck in the newsroom/producer booth, but I'll be watching the storms on radar and through weather cameras. There are worse ways to make a living.
  8. Man...rooting for stuff here in MD realllly sucks. I mean we can't get a win anywhere. Can't get a good snow (and now facing a torchy niño which might spawn another nina the following year). Ravens have disappointed--though we don't know about this year with the new regime. Orioles keep finding a way to be close to good but not quite. We have just been the unluckiest area for snow and sports since 2016. I mean we have not gotten a single win with anything that could bring us more joy. C'mon man I need something here, lol
  9. For the first time in awhile, Nino 3.4 didn’t warm per OISST. Instead, there was a notable cooling of 0.065C (see image below). After such an impressively strong warming since May 31st, this isn’t surprising. To me it is just El Niño taking a temporary breather of sorts. Ups and downs always happen. It’s still up at ~+1.0 RONI/+1.5 ONI equivalent snapshot. I expect the next round of notable warming to be later this month or in early July at the latest, especially if the -SOI persists, as that’s what ENSO models are suggesting.
  10. I agree. At the very least, I think we tie the record RONI and ONI, with a very good chance that we break the records on both of them. I also think this one stays east-based (maybe not as east-based as 1997-98 and 1982-83….several more months to go…..verdict still out obviously) but east-based none the less
  11. Just noticed that. Looks potentially soggy for much of DC-Balt around 7am
  12. Today
  13. The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us.
  14. There are some who believe our nightime lows are getting warmer during the summer months. The actual data sees no such warming - almost flat since 1893!
  15. Yeah, almost all el ninos do that, with the obvious exception of 1986-88 (which peaked in between seasons, in the summer of 87). However, the earlier the peak/fall off, the more likely for a strong la nina the following year. Just look at 1973, and the aforementioned 1988, for example. Those years got very close to, or even breached, -2.0C.
  16. I mean it’s a pretty easy forecast. This is a close the blinds winter for snow lovers. Not every super times a big storm with cold like 82/83 and 15/16. Without that it’s warm pac air with a few modified continental polar cool shots. .
  17. Totally agree but he's usually looking for cold/snow so interesting he thinks warm and snowless
  18. Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.
  19. Looks like we may be dealing with convection for the Wednesday morning commute.
  20. New D2 Tor Outlook. Seems like SW WI always gets the bullseye these days.
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