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yeah, p sure i'm stuck at my office until they plow the garage ramp

Raleigh has 20 inches on the NAM and 0 on the HRRR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it. .

Gonna see who wins the war, all models (except maybe the NBM) or my point forecast. (my high today has been 29) This Afternoon A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 5 mph. Tonight Snow showers, mainly before 3am. Low around 11. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Issued at 3:16pm...

HRRRR doing horrible job with precip. Never caught up with trends and obs. Checked webcams and it is snowing in NC mtns----NW. Hasn't done well at all most the day.

What does this mean? You aren't talking dry when you say instability, correct?

I think you’re an AI Bot…sent to infiltrate.

The big 3 RRFS HRRR 3km nam

Deep deep winter out there. Let’s get some big numbers tonight. 16.4/1 at WXW1 3.2/-3 at WXW2

True banter thought - whenever I read someone say a long range prog looks good and then says "hopefully we can avoid ______" - I think reflexively think, yeah, we won't avoid _______"... See e.g. - My reflexive thought: gonna be a big ridge bridge fo' sho'...

Slower on the NAM and being pulled back closer to OBX? This would certainly mean more QPF over eastern NC but also CNC as well correct? Looks much wetter than 12Z to my untrained eyes.

I've been around here for 25 years. Agree this kind of cold usually has an expiration date. Usually it's 24-48 hours.

Can we get group rates???

Yeah, big picture, it's good news. In the moment, I totally get the frustration. The atmosphere is a fickle mistress when it comes to snow desires for sure...

jan 2005?

Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east

Separate. But now I wonder if he meant to say E based Nino.

SN/+SN for over an hour now at ORD.

NAM is literally just playing hopscotch skipping back-and-forth every run. It didn’t even screw the Triad that run. I have zero confidence in what’s going to happen to be honest .

These are the first big changes we've seen to the SPC outlook in a long time. SPC will transition to issuing conditional intensity information beginning with the 1630Z (10:30 AM CT) Day 1 Changes to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1, 2, and 3 Convective Outlook Probabilities of Significant Severe Hazards on March 3, 2026 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

Anyone have the latest graf model to post?

Still running but the 3k has widespread 8-10”