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Also the earliest in the year it has gotten this cold at GSO since Nov 25th 1970

That lakes energy around the 20/21 seems like it could be the key to a quick little thump in the ensuing days. Wanna see that move souther/stronger and keep us colder. Then just make the 06z GFS progression a bit better and we can get a thump…

Lowlands outside of Annopoils Total so far 4.5" Come on 30-40" season lol

Low of 14. Winter, it is here.

I just feel like those kind of events never ever ever work out for us. GEFS/GFS always shows it but never happens. EPS/AIFS pretty much say shut the blinds for this week, which probably won't surprise anyone. Next very tiny window might be early next week before we hope something opens up around or after the holidays.

lol. You have access to my numbers do ya :). I'd rather not "Ruin" my portfolio. thats a good one right there.

glad we don't live at H5 for a while

The other great part of blogging and posting your reasoning for forecasts is you have something to look back on. This is why I wish I was more active with blogging but really dropped off over the last several years. So I try to rely somewhat on memory which isn't always the best metric. But when I'm forecasting I will try to think of not necessarily similar events but I try and visualize what the response will be to certain things. One thing I learned from Ekster way back to the eastern days was (and this is about thunderstorms) to try and visualize how a thunderstorm will respond to the environment it is in. But I try and extrapolate this concept across weather phenomena. With winter storms, I always try and paint a picture in my head of how the radar presentation will look at how it will evolve based on how the atmosphere is evolving. This concept has really helped me produce some solid snowfall forecasts over the years, but (in the cast of this past storm), if I am underplaying/overplaying certain aspects I will be way off.

Tied with 2024. The last time it dropped colder than 11 was Dec 2022 when it dropped to 5.

Laughs in Clarksville

Not buying into that time frame until the PNA is positive and there is some blocking

Thursday and Friday are mild to warm . But that’s it . Afterwards near normal

The end of the week probably ends up something like… Wed 39-44…Thu 45-50…Fri 50-55 BDL normal will be near 40°. Compared to what it’s been I think the vibe is going to be warmth. But I don’t really know what you’re talking about by pattern…this week? the upcoming few weeks?

Disappointed that we didn’t de-couple and go calm even in some of the normal inversion spots. Easily could have been 10f colder last night. Single digits even for places in NE MD.

It absolutely hasn’t…you’re good. No, I agree, but I’ll take my chances…been frigid and have 2” for the month, so it wouldn’t take much to do even better than that in the snow department. But I’m mostly good with what has transpired so far…mostly due to my winter activity/hobby that takes me into NNE…where they have been doing extremely well.

12/14: 2.0” 3.4” season total

I forget some stuff...especially over the off season. I find myself reading some of my old material to get reacclimated...no better way to reorient yourself with material than having it presented in a way that is uniquely tailored for your own understanding....I am probably best suited to author those works. haha.

We will continue well below normal temperatures both today and tomorrow before we moderate to near normal by Wednesday (low 40's). Well above normal for one day on Thursday (upper 40's) before back to normal temperatures toward the weekend. Rain chances increase by Thursday night.

We will continue well below normal temperatures both today and tomorrow before we moderate to near normal by Wednesday (low 40's). Well above normal for one day on Thursday (upper 40's) before back to normal temperatures toward the weekend. Rain chances increase by Thursday night.

I think he was a little tongue-in-cheek with the "winter ends" proclamation, but just my take. Point was that the pattern looks to be subpar for a while.

Low of 11° in Greensboro this morning—the Triad's coldest temperature since January 2024.

I would say the Euro AI spotted it 4-5 days out or so and was consistently aggressive with it. The RRFS was the best model close in considering how well we ended up doing and it was always the wettest short term model. The other hi res models kinda waffled on QPF until the end.

I don't think my climo has dropped this precipitously for the long-term...maybe it has and I'm wrong, but talk to me in another 6-8 years.

Low temp this morning was 15.7F. The snow is extra crunchy and the ice sheets are abundant. Currently 20F.

Low temp 18. 16 at the mesonet station a few miles inland.