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You would’ve liked 4/3/54 then…30-35kt winds, sun, and low 20s most of the day. Nice 48kt winds post fropa there too ORH,1954-04-03 04:00,METAR KORH 030400Z 20016KT 10SM OVC/// 04/01 A//// RMK SLP088 T00390006 ORH,1954-04-03 05:00,METAR KORH 030500Z 22012KT 4SM -SHRA FG OVC/// 03/02 A//// RMK SLP078 T00330022 ORH,1954-04-03 06:00,METAR KORH 030600Z 20012KT 7SM SCT/// OVC/// 04/03 A//// RMK SLP051 T00390028 ORH,1954-04-03 07:00,METAR KORH 030700Z 29016KT 10SM SCT/// BKN/// 06/02 A//// RMK SLP031 T00560017 ORH,1954-04-03 08:00,METAR KORH 030800Z 29026KT 8SM -SHRA OVC/// 05/02 A//// RMK SLP031 T00500022 ORH,1954-04-03 09:00,METAR KORH 030900Z 29024KT 15SM -SHSN OVC/// 01/M01 A//// RMK SLP061 T00061011 ORH,1954-04-03 10:00,METAR KORH 031000Z 29039KT 15SM BKN/// M02/M11 A//// RMK SLP081 T10221106 ORH,1954-04-03 11:00,METAR KORH 031100Z 29048KT 15SM SCT/// M04/M12 A//// RMK SLP091 T10391122 ORH,1954-04-03 12:00,METAR KORH 031200Z 29030KT 15SM SCT/// M04/M12 A//// RMK SLP119 T10441117 ORH,1954-04-03 13:00,METAR KORH 031300Z 32030KT 10SM -SHSN OVC/// M07/M10 A//// RMK SLP139 T10671100 ORH,1954-04-03 14:00,METAR KORH 031400Z 32030KT 40SM SCT/// M05/M14 A//// RMK SLP152 T10501139 ORH,1954-04-03 15:00,METAR KORH 031500Z 29035KT 40SM CLR M05/M16 A//// RMK SLP156 T10501156 ORH,1954-04-03 16:00,METAR KORH 031600Z 29033KT 40SM CLR M04/M14 A//// RMK SLP166 T10441144 ORH,1954-04-03 17:00,METAR KORH 031700Z 29035KT 40SM CLR M04/M15 A//// RMK SLP166 T10391150 ORH,1954-04-03 18:00,METAR KORH 031800Z 29030KT 40SM CLR M04/M16 A//// RMK SLP176 T10391161 ORH,1954-04-03 19:00,METAR KORH 031900Z 29033KT 40SM CLR M05/M16 A//// RMK SLP180 T10501156 ORH,1954-04-03 20:00,METAR KORH 032000Z 29034KT 40SM CLR M05/M16 A//// RMK SLP183 T10501156 ORH,1954-04-03 21:00,METAR KORH 032100Z 29020KT 40SM SCT/// M05/M17 A//// RMK SLP196 T10501172 ORH,1954-04-03 22:00,METAR KORH 032200Z 29021KT 40SM SCT/// M06/M18 A//// RMK SLP200 T10561178 ORH,1954-04-03 23:00,METAR KORH 032300Z 29023KT 15SM CLR M07/M19 A//// RMK SLP213 T10671194 ORH,1954-04-04 00:00,METAR KORH 040000Z 29016KT 15SM CLR M08/M21 A//// RMK SLP227 T10781206

Haha, did you mean to say 2000 years!? Certainly not going to be hundreds of feet of sea level rise in the next 200. Even 10-20 ft would be a huge stretch at the outer edge of possibilities.

Put us out of our misery

Wow.

same out here-really compacted down and melting last couple days-the piles however will be here forever

I've downloaded the complete set of all observation records in Pennsylvania up until 1925. 213 unique stations at one point contributed to this treasure trove. It's been fascinating just running the first bit of data analysis on them. Feels like I'm looking at an alien landscape. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I actually feel bad that something that brings so much joy can make someone so jaded and distrustfull. Perhaps this picture of my granddaughter and great grandson playing in the snow will bring back great memories to him and he can forget his obsession with numbers. It is after all just frozen water given to us to admire and play in not cry over.

Shocking

Confirmation bias is undefeated.

Tomorrow I do 1915 which not only is the opening salvo in the true reign of April Blizzards, as it's followed up with the 1919, the king of them all in 1924, and the one spoken at length yesterday in 1927; but it also had a cut off that would make me weep. 10" to nothing in 20 miles. 70 miles between 20" and nothing. And researching these I have discovered that they seem to come and bundles and then nothing at all for decades and we are certainly due Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Gfs south again

statistical information on winter in chicago, since the historic winter of 2013/14... like i've said, this is the snowiest and coldest season we've seen in years.

To be fair it’s been a snowless torch fest out west this year. Like 16-17 levels of futility.

GFS not bad. Euro seems like an outlier right now

Gfs op and AI want nothing to do with Monday, really euro AI on its own

Thanks for sharing. That is incredible. 32" of snow sandwiched by days in the 50s!

How we lookin? Fuck this winter. And the past 8 winters.

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 30s to around 40°. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°. Colder air will return for Sunday through Tuesday. Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. February 2026 will likely be the coldest La Niña February since February 1934. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

And we’re worried about suppression in March, but whatever you say

We have been playing this stuff for years. How about, MARCH is HERE Below 1000 ft., it is mostly over.

Yep that is were the GFS had the mex qpf up until yesterday... the problem is it is 15 warmer than the GFS thought.

Wow ! An inch more. Did you get thunder ?

Well written snippet from the Mt Holly AFD describing the key features that models likely have not resolved yet- A much colder air mass is forecast to be in place early next week as arctic high pressure from Canada builds nearby. There will be one or more ripples of energy in the northern stream that will initiate some precipitation. The timing and strength of these features within a trough aloft will determine the details. Some guidance is weaker with the trough and associated energy and therefore less precipitation, while focusing on a secondary short wave that delivers more of the precipitation on Tuesday compared to Monday. There still remains the potential for a period of wintry precipitation Monday and/or Tuesday, however uncertainty remains as the model guidance continues to differ on the handling of the upper- level features. The pattern does look conducive though for an overrunning snow or wintry mix setup with arctic high pressure to the north and energy arriving from the west. It is a matter of how much the moisture attacks the cold air across our region, with also how far south the arctic high pushes.

My first post of maybe several in coming days if people enjoy it. These are about true rarity in these parts that used to be a whole lot less rare. April Blizzards This is a deep dive into the "April Surprise" of 1894, a legendary late-season monster that paralyzed Pennsylvania just as the state was beginning to bloom. [emoji2518] 1894: A World, Nation, and State in Flux In April 1894, the world was a study in contrasts. Globally, the Panic of 1893 was still casting a long economic shadow, leading to significant labor unrest. In the United States, "Coxey’s Army"—the first significant popular protest march on Washington, D.C.—was tramping through the mud of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, demanding jobs just as this blizzard struck. Locally, Pennsylvania was the industrial heart of the nation; the steel mills of Pittsburgh were roaring, and the coal mines of the Anthracite region were fueling the Gilded Age. Culturally, the 24th President, Grover Cleveland, was in office, and the first ever Stanley Cup championship had just been played weeks prior. Little did Pennsylvanians know that a "Second Winter" was about to descend with historic fury. [emoji3587] The Winter 1893-94 Lead-Up: February’s Peak The winter of 1893–94 wasn't a consistent "ice box" year; rather, it was a season of extreme pulses. The early winter was relatively quiet, but February 1894 became the soul of the season. February saw a staggering 1,401.8" of station-summed snowfall across the state network—nearly triple the amount seen in January. The coldest day occurred on February 25, when the statewide average minimum temperature plummeted to -1.3°F. However, as March arrived, the "spring flip" was aggressive. Temperatures surged into the mid-50s, the snow pack vanished, and by early April, fruit trees were budding and farmers were eyeing their fields. The atmosphere was primed for a clash of seasons. [emoji408] Monthly Statistical Summary (Pre-Blizzard) | Month | Stations Reporting | Snow Sum | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1893-11 | 53 | 48.0" | 47.8°F | 32.6°F | | 1893-12 | 56 | 255.7" | 40.7°F | 24.6°F | | 1894-01 | 82 | 472.9" | 40.7°F | 25.4°F | | 1894-02 | 82 | 1401.8" | 36.7°F | 18.8°F | | 1894-03 | 82 | 97.1" | 54.0°F | 32.6°F | | 1894-04 (1–9) | 83 | 100.6" | 49.4°F | 32.0°F | [emoji302] The "April Bomb": April 10–12, 1894 The blizzard was not a classic "Arctic Blast" but rather a dynamically forced powerhouse. On April 10, a deepening low-pressure system began drawing massive amounts of moisture from the Atlantic, crashing it into a marginal but stubborn cold air mass draped over the interior of Pennsylvania. While Philadelphia saw mostly a cold, driving rain (only 0.5" snow) and Pittsburgh remained on the "warm" side with 0.0", the Central Ridge-Valley and Susquehanna Valley became the "Jackpot Zone." On April 11, the storm reached its peak, with 54 stations reporting snow and a statewide station-sum of 411.4" in a single 24-hour window. [emoji2783] The 9-Day Timeline (The Setup, The Event, The Melt) | Date | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | Stations w/ Snow | Max Single-Station Snow | |---|---|---|---|---| | Apr 7 (Pre) | 41.8°F | 29.7°F | 23 | 6.5" | | Apr 10 (Start) | 41.9°F | 31.1°F | 38 | 10.0" | | Apr 11 (Peak) | 36.7°F | 30.0°F | 54 | 28.0" | | Apr 12 (End) | 43.6°F | 31.6°F | 18 | 4.0" | | Apr 15 (Melt) | 63.0°F | 32.5°F | 0 | 0.0" | [emoji625] Geographic Winners and Losers The 1894 blizzard was a masterclass in "mesoscale banding." While the big cities on either end of the state (Philly and Pittsburgh) saw very little, the interior was buried. Selinsgrove recorded a mind-boggling 28.0" on April 11 alone. State College was a consistent winner throughout the event, recording 18" over two days. This storm was a "wet" snow, meaning the weight on the newly budding trees and telegraph lines was catastrophic, causing widespread communication blackouts across the Susquehanna Valley. [emoji471] Top Station Totals (April 11 Peak) * Selinsgrove 2 S: 28.0" * Le Roy: 22.0" * Lewisburg: 20.0" * Coatesville: 18.5" * Lebanon: 17.5" * Harrisburg: 13.0" [emoji2410] The Aftermath: The Great Disappearing Act As quickly as the winter monster arrived, it vanished. By April 13, the sun came out and temperatures began to climb. By April 15, the statewide average maximum temperature hit 63°F, sending the massive snowpack into a rapid melt. This led to localized flooding as the heavy, wet "April White" turned into "April Water." For those living through it, the 1894 blizzard was a reminder that in Pennsylvania, winter is never truly dead until May. [emoji2793] Visualizations I am generating a snowfall map of the hardest-hit locations and a commemorative "Weather Lore" infographic for the board. Here is the detailed write-up for your weather message board, formatted for easy copy-and-paste. [emoji2518] 1894: A World, Nation, and State in Flux The spring of 1894 arrived at a pivotal moment in history. Globally, the Panic of 1893 was still casting a long economic shadow, fueling labor unrest and leading to the historic march of "Coxey’s Army" toward Washington, D.C. In Pennsylvania, the Gilded Age was in full swing; steel mills and coal mines were the engines of the nation, and Grover Cleveland sat in the White House. While the state was looking forward to the regrowth of spring, a "Second Winter" was quietly gathering strength in the atmosphere. [emoji3587] The Winter 1893–94 Lead-Up: February’s Peak The 1893–94 season was one of extremes rather than consistency. After a quiet start, February 1894 became the heart of the winter, delivering a staggering 1,401.8" of station-summed snowfall across Pennsylvania—nearly triple the volume of January. The season’s arctic peak occurred on February 25, with a statewide average low of -1.3°F. However, March brought a violent "spring flip," with average highs surging into the mid-50s and the snowpack rapidly vanishing. By early April, fruit trees were budding, setting the stage for a catastrophic clash of air masses. [emoji408] Monthly Statistical Summary (Pre-Blizzard) | Month | Stations | Snow Sum | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin ||-------------------|----------|----------|-----------|-----------|| 1893-11 | 53 | 48.0" | 47.8°F | 32.6°F || 1893-12 | 56 | 255.7" | 40.7°F | 24.6°F || 1894-01 | 82 | 472.9" | 40.7°F | 25.4°F || 1894-02 | 82 | 1401.8" | 36.7°F | 18.8°F || 1894-03 | 82 | 97.1" | 54.0°F | 32.6°F || 1894-04 (1–9) | 83 | 100.6" | 49.4°F | 32.0°F | [emoji302] The "April Bomb": April 10–12, 1894 The blizzard was a dynamically forced powerhouse rather than a classic arctic blast. On April 10, a deepening low-pressure system tapped into Atlantic moisture and collided with a stubborn cold air mass over the interior. While Philadelphia saw mostly cold rain and Pittsburgh stayed on the warm side of the track, the Central Ridge-Valley and Susquehanna Valley were decimated. On April 11, the storm peaked with 54 stations reporting snow and a single-day station-sum of 411.4". Because this was a heavy, wet "heart attack" snow, it caused massive damage to budding trees and telegraph lines. [emoji2783] The 9-Day Timeline (Setup, Event, and Melt) | Date | Mean Tmax | Mean Tmin | Stations w/ Snow | Max Single Snow ||---------------|-----------|-----------|------------------|-----------------|| Apr 7 (Pre) | 41.8°F | 29.7°F | 23 | 6.5" || Apr 10 (Start)| 41.9°F | 31.1°F | 38 | 10.0" || Apr 11 (Peak) | 36.7°F | 30.0°F | 54 | 28.0" || Apr 12 (End) | 43.6°F | 31.6°F | 18 | 4.0" || Apr 15 (Melt) | 63.0°F | 32.5°F | 0 | 0.0" | [emoji625] Geographic Winners and Losers The 1894 event was defined by mesoscale banding. Selinsgrove recorded a legendary 28.0" on April 11 alone, while State College and Harrisburg both saw heavy interior accumulation. Conversely, the "big anchors" on the state's edges missed out on the true blizzard conditions. Top Daily Snowfall (April 11): * Selinsgrove 2 S: 28.0" * Le Roy: 22.0" * Lewisburg: 20.0" * Coatesville: 18.5" * Harrisburg: 13.0" * State College: 13.0" [emoji2410] The Aftermath: The Great Disappearing Act As quickly as the winter monster arrived, it vanished. By April 13, the sun emerged, and by April 15, the statewide average high hit 63°F. The massive, moisture-laden snowpack melted rapidly, leading to localized flooding and turning the "April White" into "April Water" in a matter of hours. For Pennsylvanians of the 1890s, it was a stark reminder that winter is never truly dead until May. [emoji2793] Visualization: The Jackpot Map The map below highlights the "Interior Jackpot" where the storm core centered, showing the stark contrast between the buried central valleys and the relatively dry urban anchors. [emoji439] 1894 BLIZZARD INFOGRAPHIC > THE APRIL BOMB AT A GLANCE > * The Peak Day: April 11, 1894 > * Biggest Winner: Selinsgrove (28 inches in 24 hours) > * The "Flip": 36°F (Blizzard) [emoji3591] 63°F (Spring Melt) in 4 days. > * The Damage: Thousands of budding fruit trees destroyed; telegraph lines snapped across the Susquehanna. > Would you like me to generate a similar breakdown for the 1888 Children's Blizzard or perhaps a specific regional comparison for this 1894 event? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk