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Thank you. And I agree.

yep, the same NAM everyone was praising yesterday when it showed 2 feet

100% steady rain with a temp of 36. Haven't seen a flake mix in yet. I never really expected any accumulation here until damn-near sundown. I think CTP's map is going to be adjusted downward through the afternoon.

I am, and it is true that anything could happen, but it sure looks like it’s not going to be what we thought it could be yesterday. Duped by the NAM again….

Preface by noting two different forecast time stamps. We should know where the norlun is setting up by 22z-00z (5-7 pm est) based on radar sigs from the CAMs: My guess is we will know by 5-6 pm

Off and on snow showers in Chelsea

I might need to check out for awhile, the emotional roller coaster by some on here is kind of unbearable.

I think it was a fair amount of rain before it flipped?

There's some normalization going on in the NAM back east, too. It's subtle, but ex, Login was 53 kts in the middle BL sustained wind fields yesterday, and now it is only 41 in the FOUS grid. The QPF is down a bit too. It's also down in PHL and NYC compared to what it was yesterday. I suspect yesterday's cinemas were the max d-drippers for this storm's modeling movie, and now we're just going to end up with a major and not much more overall. Fine. I say this ...not just because of the NAM, but there's a 10 ... 12% amplitude theft going on across the board as we've entered these late modeling innings. (note, I'm not incorporating the HRRR or the like). Now-cast could perhaps bring the theft back, ... but, since that behavior has been noted over recent years worth of modeling ( actually), it's sort of built in confidence/expectation to take place. As an aside, it seems what we haven't seen is a modeled system that started out meager and grew 8% per run until go time. It seems like technology favors going the other way, either by error or design... We're always giving back in the closing arguments.

I’d give it another hour or two. It’s like marinating the sauce. Epic cold and blocking are gone so we’ll have to rely on dynamics. It’s ok.,

Yes I did. I liked how Joe C kept razzing DT on the chat board. DT tried to take over the show. DT maybe on live with them tonight

It's nowcasting time, forget about model guidance now.

I am absolutely scared of this right now.

Ended up being another shitty winter after all

I was at the top of Mt K last Saturday. it was socked in the clouds so I couldn’t see your house

Why? Because of the NAM, lol! Try to let the event play out…

It’s only a matter of time until it goes full snow…

We are close enough to it to keep paying attention

75% rain / 25% snow mix toward Linglestown (35°F), with no accumulation. Given the marginal boundary layer temperatures, it will be difficult to see snow accumulation if model trends continue to support subsidence across the LSV. Most of the model snow maps are way too high given ratios and ground temperatures. It's looking snowy in Huntingdon County (https://stormsellweather.com/weatherwall/pawebcams.html), where banding has been present most of the morning.

Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track.

Light rain snow flakes mixing in now 37f humidity 93% dew point 36f it’s obvious uppers are cooling. Changeover to snow imminent.

rain and snow mixed. 35.5 degrees. Lowest we had was 34.9 degrees a few hours ago.

Im happy to have some subsisdence now when it wasn’t gonna accumulate anyway. Hopefully death band later

Imagine if you had a place to go that was going to get 3"+ of qpf and 70+ mph wins? That would be something

NAM must not have been too good. Any maps?