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I don't like the wall of summer just to our sw lol

-Actually, Dec of 1996, indeed, was still another -ENSO strong -PNA that transitioned to a +PNA in Jan after a 1.8+ rise. -Dec of 2000 had a neutral PNA. So, that isn’t in this group.

I've noticed that a lot of the AI stuff does pretty poorly with anomalous Atlantic blocks. they often struggle to get them to develop and wash them out too quickly when they occur. might make sense with the fact that they struggle with anomalous outcomes and they "smooth" things out a bit

Big cutter on the GFS with temps in the 50's the day after xmas

Exactly! As events occur, deep learning should ultimately improve the results.

The point is to get it operational and garner experience....like a rookie QB.

Yeah starting to get some model convergence on it. 06z Euro was a little juicier than the 12z GFS but both have it.

lol what the hell is the point of that then

The thing about 2014-15 is that 100+ happened in a 6 week period. Absolutely unprecedented for coastal sne.

00 and 97 I think also went pretty strong +PNA I think but can’t recall if they were negative in December or not. I want to say they were not

I like the flurries it shows on the 23rd lol

in midtown at this time it's currently 44 degrees partly sunny! Any snow chances for Christmas ?

Not over and threats are later.

I’m very curious to see what happens in Jan with the PNA based on -ENSO strong Dec -PNA analogs like 2021, 2013, 2010, 2008, and 1984 whose Jan PNA all rose 1.8++ from Dec. That’s still well beyond what models can see with any notable degree of skill. My GEFS PNA forecasting images for Dec 2021-Jan 2022 displayed that well.

Crickets after that gfs run lol

47 in Kearny. Got coastal flood advisory for work tomorrow. Might be interesting drive in.

I think your area had more in 1996...I know I did.

Here's some data for NYC for January and March (1980-2025):

Yeah. If that AH will scoot over Alaska and bridge to the -NAO . A retrogression west or SW of the GOA Low would then setup a pretty much solid cold Pattern. 12Z GFS illustrates what you mentioned ; Model Chaos. Rather tricky Pattern for Models to decipher.

Hopefully we’re locking into that 23rd period. Would be a nice festive snow for many. Solid chill locks in for the Christmas period immediately after.

Nice! It just hit me, that shop is painted the same color scheme as mine... did a double take lol. That and $300 in wood and a few basic pieces of equipment

I was hiking in the Catoctins on Tuesday. I noticed a lot of this. I was at Cunningham Falls. Down at the Falls between two ridges was like 28 degrees with powdery snow. I hiked up to about 1600 feet from 1200 feet. Once I hit about 1500 feet suddenly it's warm, probably 36, and theres water funning down the rocks below the snow. As im hiking back down suddenly, within 10 feet the temp went back below freezing and it was silent. You could literally look up towards the top and see dropping from trees. The mountains are so cool when it comes to this stuff. I love it. Super fascinating.

It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first. If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO. If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks. I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good

I asked @OceanStWx about that and supposedly it had better results over GFS op (early testing anyways) but didn’t perform as well in anomalous events which one would expect when a model is training on past events. The other thing he said is that each vertical level is trained independently, so it’s possible the 500mb pattern may not match what you’d think to see for MSLP.