All Activity

The big bust PHL-BOS storm! One of the first big mega hype media storm starting 5+ days out I think. I had 22" of wet snow in N Woburn MA w/ crazy vertical accumulations on power lines. Also, first time I noticed when you dig into wet snow that deep, esp. when cloudy, you see a blue tinge from the high moisture content.

@Damage In Tolland is going to like the NAM and RAP.. Hopefully we can get the 6z NAM to bump north with that qpf.. major event incoming for someone

Snowfall Totals for this kitchen sink event

Tomorrow’s NWS forecast….i guess I missed the heavy drizzle watch? Maybe we just go to a straight warning, maybe the criteria for a warning is greater than 20% chance of precipitation. Whatever I can’t wait to measure my heavy drizzle in millimeters! Be careful out there everyone! Areas of drizzle before noon, then isolated showers after 4pm. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Areas of dense fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

^For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). Staying the same.

It was great here but disappointing at the same time seeing areas in every direction get crushed with 20-30". But i can't be mad at a 17" snowstorm...that's still major in my book and probably on par with biggest ive seen. One day ill get to see what a 20+ or two foot storm looks like... Definitely the worst blizzard conditions ive ever seen by far. Still catching up on past maps from Feb 20, Feb 25, Mar 1, Mar 3-4 which will be done shortly.

DJF: ONI -0.39 RONI -0.90 So, RONI minus ONI has dropped back down to -0.51. Most non-BoM model projections are ONI rather than RONI. Thus, in order to estimate RONI, one obviously needs to subtract ~0.5 from the model progs.

0z GEFS look much stronger with -WPO in the medium range. I'm going to have to learn that the EPS has much better accuracy than GEFS.

Absolutely incredible work, thank you for your efforts! I still can’t believe this storm happened, it’s almost surreal. The uncertainty, the Euro pivoting towards the GFS, then knowing it’s coming and the buildup to it, ugh such a dopamine kick. The storm itself was incredible, marred only slightly for me by familial duty (had to take my elderly parents in, couldn’t fully enjoy the storm while it was occurring). This was 1/29/22 better maximized and more NW. I do see similarities looking at this map, but this was the better storm for more of us. Definitely a very memorable event, to say the least. I’m very happy SNE got crushed, the areas that really maximized were more than due, and that’s a hell of a debt repayment. Spent a decent part of the last week in a dopamine crash since it ended.

Sorry to dwell on the Winter West Coast ridge again, but this really stands out to me as an extreme anomaly Most extreme West Coast DJF ridge analogs The news is, the ridge really sticks around +time in analog cases.. this is the following year: March (not included in my visual analog picks.. yet almost as strong of an anomaly!) April (+60dm over the SW, US is extreme!) May Summer (June-August) Following Winter (26-27 analog) ^75% of the N. Hemisphere is +H5 in the following Winter, which fits a warming sequence possibly associated with El Nino. The main point is just the skew warm-general +time. This is the mid-latitudes the following Winter (26-27 analog) Winter PNA DJF 25-26 was negative, so interesting that they got a #1 record warm Winter on the West coast. Monthly PNA: -1.41 2026 0.79 -0.56

I always think of 2018 March storm. Second half of the month and we still managed 10.5" despite it all. One of my favorite storms. March 2011 was another but that was extremely heavy. Believe we got 8" or so in about 4 or 5 hours.

Winters for me is around the days before Thanksgiving to well int March/early April. March April storms usually suck though... It was a B+ Winter at best so far. A+ it is not...., not even close to tell you the truth.

Guess it’s the same down in SNE between ORH and everyone else around there. Dripping off rooftops at ORH but locked up tight elsewhere.

Talk about an inversion and fake cold preserving snowpack down low… 3,600ft… 29F 2,600ft… 36F 1,550ft… 39F (Ops building) 750ft… 21F (MVL and local PWS)

DFW radar storm totals up near 8" just southeast of the metro. Just in the past couple hours. Still looks very convectively interesting heading into the weekend and early next week with a meandering front and cutoff Low setting up out west over Baja region. Ensembles starting to trend on a faster, but stronger/deeper track into the state.

Snowfall totals from this light snow event. Went C-2 statewide, probably could have easily done C-1 and it would have been better with just a couple reports around Killingly area over 1".

Looks like the dry pattern is actually dying with the Niña this time.

Ice ice baby. Maybe a morning surprise for some people?

BDCF / CAD wedges are one of the few areas in which I'd take the NAM over the Euro. Early March is peak BDCF Wedge season.

Working my way backward, finally finished this slop event. It's been hard to keep up with all these C-3 type events. Forecast for this was pretty much excellent for CT. A- Oh and the BOX PNS is pretty hilarious. TWO ORH reports included and both of them are wrong . The final for ORH was 2.4

well I’m doing my best not to bury my sled off-trail, so I’m not really sure but based on past experience, it’s deep, prob close to 3’. Saw a moose up that way up to its chest in the middle of a clearing.

0z GFS with a 80F sounding for DC March 11. NWS has it anyway Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 79

Not really, recently all of our cold/snowy winters seem to be consecutive: 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05; 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11; and 2013-14, 2014-15.

Yeah, you need a lot of cold air in place. In the years when we had big snowstorms post-March 15 (1956, 1958, 2018, etc.) there were many days with below average temperatures (mostly in the 40s and even 30s, as well as at least one snow event) leading up to it: 1956-03-06 47 38 42.5 2.1 22 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-07 51 38 44.5 3.8 20 0 0.13 0.0 0 1956-03-08 45 31 38.0 -3.0 27 0 0.50 T 0 1956-03-09 49 30 39.5 -1.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-10 56 34 45.0 3.4 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-11 59 40 49.5 7.6 15 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-12 48 33 40.5 -1.7 24 0 0.09 T 0 1956-03-13 38 32 35.0 -7.5 30 0 0.09 0.7 T 1956-03-14 48 37 42.5 -0.3 22 0 1.56 0.0 0 1956-03-15 42 34 38.0 -5.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-16 36 26 31.0 -12.4 34 0 0.73 1.3 T 1956-03-17 33 23 28.0 -15.7 37 0 T T 1 1956-03-18 30 25 27.5 -16.5 37 0 0.56 5.4 0 1956-03-19 30 23 26.5 -17.8 38 0 0.35 3.3 7 1958-03-01 46 39 42.5 3.4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-02 53 34 43.5 4.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-03 49 38 43.5 3.9 21 0 0.17 0.0 0 1958-03-04 46 34 40.0 0.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-05 47 34 40.5 0.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-06 50 30 40.0 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-07 49 35 42.0 1.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-08 46 31 38.5 -2.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-09 40 28 34.0 -7.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-10 53 34 43.5 1.9 21 0 T T 0 1958-03-11 54 31 42.5 0.6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-12 45 35 40.0 -2.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-13 42 29 35.5 -7.0 29 0 0.39 1.4 1 1958-03-14 39 32 35.5 -7.3 29 0 0.66 0.6 2 1958-03-15 44 36 40.0 -3.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 T 1958-03-16 42 33 37.5 -5.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-17 44 31 37.5 -6.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-18 48 31 39.5 -4.5 25 0 T 0.0 0 1958-03-19 38 33 35.5 -8.8 29 0 0.81 1.4 0 1958-03-20 35 32 33.5 -11.2 31 0 1.76 9.6 4 2018-03-02 45 32 38.5 -0.9 26 0 0.86 1.5 0 2018-03-03 46 35 40.5 0.9 24 0 T T 1 2018-03-04 48 31 39.5 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-05 47 30 38.5 -1.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-06 48 29 38.5 -1.9 26 0 0.23 0.1 0 2018-03-07 36 32 34.0 -6.7 31 0 1.28 6.0 T 2018-03-08 40 31 35.5 -5.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 4 2018-03-09 42 30 36.0 -5.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 3 2018-03-10 44 29 36.5 -5.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 2 2018-03-11 46 28 37.0 -4.9 28 0 0.00 0.0 1 2018-03-12 43 29 36.0 -6.2 29 0 0.06 T 0 2018-03-13 42 32 37.0 -5.5 28 0 0.03 T T 2018-03-14 41 29 35.0 -7.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-15 46 32 39.0 -4.1 26 0 T 0.0 0 2018-03-16 42 31 36.5 -6.9 28 0 T T 0 2018-03-17 48 28 38.0 -5.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-18 50 31 40.5 -3.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-19 52 33 42.5 -1.8 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-20 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 0.40 0.9 0 2018-03-21 36 31 33.5 -11.5 31 0 1.06 6.7 1 We just don't have that coming up this year. We have temps forecasted in the 60s and 70s. I have a feeling anyone holding out hope for more snow is going to end up disappointed.

Magic ball ?