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Today is the first day with bare ground at Detroit since November 28th. It was the 5th coldest first half of December on record and still running over 8° below avg. As i recall the poster in question "predicted" a warm start to December. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't always sync herself with Bing Crosby. Remember 2022? It was a mild winter but a perfectly timed cold snap brought near record coverage of a white Christmas to the CONUS.

Didn’t have time to dig deep in to the whole NE. Going with 1-3” for everyone for now, except less along immediate shore with warmer boundary layer. Will tweak tomorrow.

I agree. They change daily. When they stop flip flopping is when you can be more confident in a scenario.

Thank you for the kind words, Bncho.

Of course, now the wind has decided to make a visit in my little valley. Had a 14" diameter white pine go down in the woods. Power has been out for an hour or so. Sent via telegraph and smoke signal

One of the best posts I've ever seen on the entire forum from one of the best posters on this entire forum. Kudos to you. Winter still has a chance.

Eric Webb says winter is ovvvvvaaaa rover!

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so.

The National Weather Service disagrees with you: Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter New disco: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow inland. * Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch (potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ. * Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday. High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions prevailing.

I’ll always have my Dec 8th 2025 flizzard

If anyone is interested? Bobby Martrich has Steve D. as special guest on his Sunday Weather Weeklies video on you tube.

honestly we should aim for 80 since Dec now is the only month in which DC has not recorded an 80F temperature.

Absolutely. I said last year that he had an agenda…and it’s blatantly obvious.

yeah - we need precip in a bad way.

His earlier forecast was predicted on the warm pool being moved east, which he says is starting to look unlikely. He says a weak SPV is actually a detriment

sucker hole here, but likely too warm anyways

Indeed, this combo has been a rarity in at least Dec. Looking at history for Dec, I looked to see the last time there was a strong -WPO dominating with a neutral or +EPO. It looks per the current December’s numbers that there will end up a strong -WPO while there will probably be a weak +EPO average (with the 3 +EPO periods averaging longer than the 3 -EPO periods). The last half month+ long period within Decs when there was anything similar was the first half of 1995 (extreme -WPO and weak +EPO), the first half of 1966 (very strong -EPO and neutral EPO), and Dec 7-23, 1956 (extreme -WPO and moderate +EPO). Over a shorter timeframe, Dec 1-10 of 2012 had a very strong -WPO while there was a moderate +EPO.

48 here at 11 am, 47 now

Only about 45-46 here as well. Quite windy today though so there's quite the wind chill

If it turns out like the last one, some of us up here would surprise with 6". Can it happen twice in a row?

Only 46 at my stations (46.6 & 46.4), currently 45 at both.

It’s such a sorry attempt at trolling. A week ago there was north to south snow cover from Maine to Virginia and east to west snow cover from the Cape through the northern tier to Montana. Christmas will torch in the south and part of the Midwest, but it hasn’t been extended fall for many in the U.S. this December. Quite the opposite.

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026