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Looks like some training supercells in Maine

that's more than the entirety of some of our cooler summers

Interesting storms today. The shear is there, instability lagging as usual. Meh from BTV, but big beam blockage. I've been keeping an eye on Canadian radars for our northern storms, and this is something... That sure looks like a TDS in the Northeast Kingdom.

Hrr has critically needed showers 3k nam is a dry disaster

88.8's the past couple days. Surprisingly haven't recorded a 90 this month.

Easily the most impressive storm of the year just blew through. Winds were probably 60-70 mph, and it lasted probably a good 20 minutes. Surprisingly we still have power.

Hit 91 earlier. Now clouds and 88. Tonight looks like one of the elevated Cape Cod deals. Hopefully it can come further north.

57 to 87 so far today. Another beauty. Hopefully we get wet overnight.

Yeah the latest HRRR hits us pretty good tonight, but not until 11pm. This is a late event.

Nice link, great info for the various stations. Bookmarked it for sure./ Thanks

Looking like some pretty crazy dynamics later according to latest HRRR

MCD should be coming soon

The 12z Euro… holy moly.

I do always wonder when PA will see another outbreak like the May 1989 tornado outbreak. It's always a matter of when not if but it sure has been a long time since that's happened. I'm always in the camp of 'nothing ever happens' since that's usually how it is but eventually we'll get a day where that's not the case.

This ended up being a 17 hour day. 5a out the door 7a warm up 8a shotgun start 145p shotgun start 445p rain delay 645p restart 8p done 10p home

The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now

That cyclone encompassing the North Atlantic from Canada to Ireland is cool.

90 here as of 2PM. We could really use the rain as opposed to the wind later on.

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO. Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

Hmm, took a look at the mesoanalysis page and I’m still on the train of storms today could be nasty, but I have some concerns about initiation. I did a hand analysis of the SPC page and evidently the pre frontal axis is located along route 15. Meanwhile, the pre frontal trough associated with a low level wind shift from south to south west is draped across the Allegheny front. I’m just not sure we have the juice to kick off storms. My dew point is in the upper 60s, but our cape west of the beltway remains stubbornly in the 500-1000 range. This isn’t like last Friday where we had 3000+ Cape and near conditionally unstable LL lapse rates. Additionally, the RH between the LCL and LFC is 30-50% across where the trough would cause storms to form. Just seems we got a good bit stacked against us thermodynamically. That said, this is all beginner analysis so the Mets probably see reasons that storms will pop that I don’t.

Another day with 90 percent rain and storms that's probably going to miss here again unless we get some miracle developments.

Maybe South east TN can get some storms later,cold front is still well out west but the Lapse rates and low level shear showing isnt that great later on,but there is convection that has recently popped up alomg the TN/MS line,guess we will see later.Wed looks to better as Jeff mentioned above,but even that the GFS fluctuates each run seemingly

We pour.

Multiple models are showing a large MCS traversing Iowa again the morning of the event. Will be interesting to see how the evolution of that affects the development later in the day. Very impressed by the synoptics of this. Powerful upper jet knifing in with very impressive shear profiles over a wide area on the nose of that.

I couldn't chase last Thursday due to being in Cleveland on a family trip (probably would have ended up on the still-tornadic relative junk in western IL anyway), but it'd be nice to have the target not be south of I-80 for once since I rarely can take PTO on short notice from my job.