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I bet tomorrow will be yet another almost 100% cloudy, ridiculously muggy day.

Well here in SC, we been knocking on the door of 100 deg or higher for quite some time. 90 would feel pretty good right now. Yes, I am stunned I wrote that, and mildly sad.

I think today is beautiful, but this is COC now?

the hypothesis that your username is based on fell apart 10 years ago

Thanks! Mike, that is really the crux of the discussion and I think we've arrived at the same place. "The magnitude of the adjustment is inferred, but not well documented in the sense that it has been verified by field measurements" - that is precisely the claim I've been making, and I appreciate you putting it plainly rather than trying to make me prove it. And thank you for the two references. Parallel observation is the gold standard and I hadn't seen either paper. Vincent 2018 is the one I want most - 88 site pairs with five-year overlaps quantifying how much uncertainty homogenisation introduces against directly measured ground truth is exactly the number missing from this discussion. If the answer is small, that's a real argument for confidence in the method that isn't an appeal to benchmarks on synthetic networks. If it's large, that's worth knowing too. Either way it's measured rather than modelled.

Another Flood Watch, been the summer of flood watches and brown patch. I bet they expand the Flood Watch SW later today. Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>022-025>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-200900- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0008.260820T1600Z-260821T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Camden, Flemington, Oxford, West Chester, Pennsville, Trenton, Perkasie, Wilmington, Collegeville, Doylestown, Lansdale, New Brunswick, Kennett Square, Media, Sandy Hook, Chalfont, Atlantic City, Pottstown, Philadelphia, Norristown, Morrisville, Wharton State Forest, Cherry Hill, Hammonton, Honey Brook, Moorestown, Long Beach Island, Somerville, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Glassboro, and Freehold 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas, Atlantic, Camden, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington and Western Monmouth, and southeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area beginning Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches which could cause flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DeSilva

When did the poster move there? Always lived in Burlington

Its 2:15 P.M. and not even 90 in SE Wake Is there a polar vortex on the way?

Bob likely had several spinners in SE MA and CC, but this was two years before the 88D was installed and prior to the NWS MAR (Modernization and Restructuring) in the mid 90s. Documentation of spinners in the NEUS prior to this time? I was not impressed. It was not nearly as systematic and detailed as it is now. Also, the sheer scale of the HU wind damage likely precluded any tor investigations for Bob. Look at this statement from the PVD WSO a few days after Gloria (attached). First, @weatherwiz proby be like, "This is blasphemy! They did not officially counts these! EVERY spinner in New England is a BIG DEAL!" Second, this proves my point about the practices in these days. They had valid and reliable tor reports, but chose to "punt" and do this instead. These tors here do not show up in NCEI Storm Data, so they are not part of the official record. 5 tor reports here, that is significant. How many single days have 5 tors in New England, let any tor in RI? Going back to 1950, up until Gloria, there were only 2 official tors I think in RI in Storm Data, and there were 3 reports from Gloria alone. That is huge from a climo standpoint! Side note: The following year, RI was "vindicated." You had this highly visible spout in Narraganset Bay just offshore of Bristol on July 3, 1986 (not the 8th as said here), and clearly seen from the PVD airport. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/july-8-1986-bristol-rhode-island-narragansett-bay--63894888436120341/ And then RI 3 spinners Aug 7-8, 1986, including an F2 in downtown PVD!

Yes. He apparently believes it's fake news.

85/66 An amazing pool or Beach day, but for those of us who work outside all day, definitely not COC.

The tropics have expanded more to accommodate heating - this is balancing the wholesale integrated PV=nrT ideal gas state. Increasing the temp --> increases either P, V or both, on the left side of the equation. That expansion is the Hadley Cell ... But this is not linear. Generally, gases expand more significantly the higher temperature. Thus, the colder Arctic domain can increase more temperature, before it begins to expand ... The atmosphere is free to expand in the horizontal and upward direction. It's obviously not expanding through the ground... The disproportionate expansion at higher temperatures thus causes the HC expansion, and the temperature only shows a more modest rise - it's a trade off. More volume as thermal energy is increasing, the register of the actual kinetic temperature is slowed. If the tropics were in a closed container, it'd have risen more than what is being measured.

isn't Southborough closer to Worcester ?

You live near Boston and your log pile is near there too

Worcester is the closest station to me. Concord is the closest station to dendrite. It's not that difficult. I can give you the information but I can't make you understand it .

Why are we picking different airports for each post thruout the day, none of which is anywhere near where the poster lives or works ?

This might be the most uneventful hurricane season in my lifetime

What a day! Couldn't get any nicer. I almost feel sorry for the folks sweating in their imaginary humidity.

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes.

Below normal

Yes, but this common, esp. in shallow marshes/swamps in S FL. Too many hype-masters act like it significant, but it is not. Also, we have many more marine sites now, not just from NDBC, but NOS and private organizations. You have an entire dense network dedicated to the coastal Everglades (see map attached), so finding a location that has 100 F water temp is not hard these days. What happens if the area is in a dry period or a single location just happens to miss out on diurnal SHRA/TSRA for an extended period in the summer, that stagnant shallow water heats up, but as soon as you get heavy rain at the location, you'll see the water temp plunge into the mid 80s. All this is normal. I see posts merely for hype and content, showing coastal water temps in the low 90s for the cntrl and srn part of FL, when again, this is normal every summer. The angle used is that "this is big fuel for hurricanes!" No, it is not. Local shallow water this warm is not a factor, and really, well before the core of a TC gets to these locations, it has already rained and the water temps have dropped significantly! You need large areas of warm water, and not just skin deep, for a TC to thrive and get intense. And this I bet many are not aware, even some mets. The limit for SSTs over large, open areas (key here *is* "large" and "open") around the globe is ~30-31 C. This is b/c at this temp, evaporation matches the incoming solar radiation, so that caps things off. Also a factor, many areas where the SSTs are this high, the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so large areas of SHRA/TSRA are common, never mind semi-permanent features such as the ITCZ and monsoon trof present, and this also keeps things in check for SSTs.