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Regardless of if Sunday Night's event is a snower or cuts west, the cold and moist cyclonic flow looks constent and filled with potential subtle shortwave features next week. Still a ways to go until confidence increases substantially, but if the pieces align correctly a real solid upslope signature may emerge under the incoming trough.

Maybe some flurries make it over the mountain Monday night

I think it was November 11-12 ,2021 we got 4 to 7 inches from anafrontal. Let's not forget last year the first measurable snowfall was November 22. I measured 2.8" . Some Locations higher up had several inches more. November had decreased in Snowfall Averages over the last 50 Year's. Maybe that is changing. Who knows.

Wintry appeal

NAM still not interested in much over 40

If you notice, KMRX always broadbrushes the elevation regardless of Latitude. Also, Models are showing flakes reaching Valley Floors in SWVA, and NETN. but yet no mention of the possibility . I know it's 5-6 days out but still.

are you talking wind or snow? I recall that storm well and snowfall was very well-forecasted, as were winds...besides the really high-end reports. NWS at least, didn't hit on the far SE/ CC wind impacts but that was extraordinary. Great storm

BWI: 16.8" DCA : 13.9" IAD : 15.9" RIC :7.1" SBY:5.9"

18z is when the model was ran. This time of year, 0z is the 7pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, and 18z is 1pm, all those are EST, subtract an hour for CST. Usually around 4 hours after that initialization time, the results show up on websites. The Euro is more like 5 hours later. Carvers' map up there is the output for 21z next Monday. 4pm/3pm November 10th.

every time a thread is started it turns into meh

Just came in from outside and it is quite cold, already down to 33.1

Some heat wave.

Might not get out of the 30s on Tuesday here.

Historic Florida cold

At this point, I am definitely "in" on accumulating snow somewhere across the snowbelt to start next week. It is short lived, but there will be a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. That will send a chunk of the PV currently up over the arctic circle south into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday: While details are of course going back and forth on the latest deterministic model runs as they will at this range, the ensemble mean SLP, 850mb temperature, and QPF loop is a pretty good look for lake effect: There may be some wet snow with that little wave of low pressure on Sunday depending on where it tracks...however, the lake effect ramps up behind it Sunday night into Monday, and probably lingers into Tuesday before ridging and warm air advection really start kicking in. Ensemble mean 850mb temps are down around -9C on Monday, with the ensemble mean depicting nice cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and suggesting a more west to northwest wind direction. 500mb temperatures are progged to bottom out between -35 and -40C over a lake that is currently about 12C, which suggests very strong and deep instability is in play, potentially enough for thunder and lightning. We'll need to see how the specifics evolve as it gets closer, but the ingredients are there for a (somewhat brief) period of intense lake effect centered around Monday of next week, and the airmass should be cold enough for accumulating snow if we're able to get any sort of organized activity...which seems likely.

How far out is 18z? Sorry newb! .

It doesn't last long because the Pacific is moving way too fast right now, but a nice pattern amplification this weekend into the beginning of next week. You can see the chunk of the PV at the beginning of the loop up in the middle of the arctic circle that drops towards Hudson Bay this week and gets pulled into the Great Lakes and New England Sunday through Tuesday. It will be impressively cold aloft beneath this, so the lakes will be cranking. Pretty good chance that there's enough snow to prompt at least winter wx advisories off a few of the lakes, usually when it's as cold aloft at 500mb as what the models are depicting and the lakes are this warm there are some intense bands.

Little faith this far out......but it's still nice to see the words. Monday A 50 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Monday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Veterans Day A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

"The biggest event of my life was the July 2012 microburst that went through my yard. Instant whiteout, 80 mph gusts if I had to guess, and nickle sized hail" Those are the ones you remember. Short-lived, isolated, and intense. Happened to me when my daughter was an infant. Must have been 1994. Unclipping her car seat and heading into the store and said maybe I better wait this one out. All hell broke loose. Kind of like December 2005 although that wasn't that isolated.

Unless the big wind knocks them down tomorrow night., next week it is

Holy Hell. The warm milk crowd is having trouble sleeping? The entire "The Joy of Painting" series is on YouTube. It's located here: I fall asleep to this selection every single night. And I am NOT kidding. Good night.

The biggest non-tropical wind event for my particular area that I remember was March 2, 2018. The difference with that event is that the wind was sustained, not just in gusts like it usually is. It roared all day into the night and I believe that one had a sting jet also.

Unless the funnel was visible from imby then it might as well have been in Kansas. lol And six is a big exaggeration. As a matter of fact I don't think Seekonk has had any tornadoes that I know of. A few towns around me have but like I said I never witnessed it personally. The biggest event of my life was the July 2012 microburst that went through my yard. Instant whiteout, 80 mph gusts if I had to guess, and nickle sized hail. That was wild but still has nothing on a hurricane or tornado.

Interesting indeed!

Might be toast this Fri AM.