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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily ONI is already passing +1.0c in Nino 3.4 and subsurface is warmest ever only below 1997, normal 65F areas on the thermocline are 80F right now. It's going to at least go Strong. SOI is the biggest counter-indicator.. it hasn't had more than a few very negative days.
  3. Today
  4. Birds~69
    Drought guy may be on to something...although this seems normal to me. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/polar-vortex-aftermath-to-bring-more-chilly-may-days-to-midwest-northeast/1886949
  5. ineedsnow
    No AC yet here and doesnt look like we will need it for awhile.. April had a few very warm days but we also had some snow.. May will come.in below normal it looks like.. we take!
  6. Snowedin
    Must be nice not living less than 5 miles from a 45 degree ocean. Hopefully us mist weary coastal inhabitants can get some much needed relief later this week!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020. 77% +SOI during that time Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo
  8. jaxjagman
    Yes,im not sure even MV does maint on his sites anymore,but i still use it,so it could be wrong for sure
  9. jaxjagman
    This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter
  10. GaWx
    Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..
  11. snowman19
    Lol No chance that this is going to be another -QBO winter. In other news, consensus on a +IOD forming over the next couple of months
  12. jaxjagman
    Seemingly or more likely we are headed towards a EQBO,i still think there would be little sample size what this winter will be,but more than likely as some of maps shown above,who knows maybe we will get suprised(ducking)..lol Edit:meant westerly WQBO
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah let's see if the STJ juices up this year with cold ENSO background state probably still in effect. 23-24 Winter was very wet but Nov 2023 was extremely dry
  14. GaWx
    Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.
  15. Birds~69
    46f, 12AM...windows open, I think I heard the ice cream truck guy?
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -- it was pretty close to a uniform La Nina pattern last Winter in the US. Combine that with pre-El Nino conditions for the year after, and you have about a perfect composite.
  17. GaWx
    The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring. The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.
  18. Cobalt
    It doesn't matter if it's 134 years of climate data from Gibson County, Indiana. It is just one of the 3143 counties in the United States that you are trying to use as the lens from which to view global climate change from. You don't get the right to say that I'm cherrypicking when that is the flimsy pedestal you're standing on.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I didn't realize it was such a strong La Nina STJ pattern
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can generate on these two sites using ERA 5 dataset, Chuck....only issues are that the time periods are more restricted...ie I can't do DJFM, and there are no daily options....ie March 10-25, etc...
  21. jaxjagman
    i did some research a couple days ago how a strong Nino effects our area or region.In general Dec can have some strong tornadoes which surprised me because we dont see this in NINO into winter,in Jan along the Appalachian Mountains has flooding and a freak IP/SN happens in Feb Edit:Other wise its going to be AN with with temps
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe I'm missing something but we still don't have H5 monthlies?
  23. WxWatcher007
    Snow showers up here today
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, wow...I didn't think those went past early March, like the H5 stuff.....awesome. Issue is just H5 dailies, then
  25. GaWx
    What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  26. TimB
    Officially a trace of snow at PIT today.
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    These are the best I have for monthly composites right now.. https://climatereanalyzer.org Alternatively, you can also still use PSL by drawing upon the ERA 5 dataset, since NCAR was discontinued in March....my problem is that you can't use ERA 5 to generate daily maps here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ You also can't get degrees F and precipitation in inches using ERA 5. So I am seeking an alternative to generate those maps as to now be relegated to monthly data using degrees Kelvin and measuring precipitation in mm moving forward.
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