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snow from Northern Maine to just about the Gulf Coast.. not often you see that

Yea, I mean...those are Ginx specials since he gets off to minimum central pressure and beach erosion. All I care about is how deeply my ruler becomes submerged.

Yea, file that in the "never happen folder but fun to look at"

Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap? lol

12z CMC is a hit on the 19th for a lot of folks with Snow/ice

No doubt!

Very well said. You mentioned something last year that really hit home to me. There are times when we have a workable, or even favorable pattern for snow and we miss out due to back luck, etc. That's upsetting, but fine. Then you have the years where it's Pacific Puke™ all winter and nothing can save us. Those are heart wrenching. It appears that we are set up for success over the next month and it's all down to luck. That's fine, we just want to be in the game.

Canada gone wild on that run.

CMC looks damn good. 4-6+" with more still to go

It strings out the energy, way too far out to worry about that

yup someone always seems to get screwed.. CMC is also trying now

Nice run for Myrtle beach on the 16th. Way wide right up here. I’m pretty much writing that one off, you’re going to need pretty wholesale changes to get a configuration that will drag that close enough to be interesting.

DESI has a phenomenal dashboard that allows you to generate custom graphs and maps for models, including using the national blend of models(below), AI models etc.

Not hard to do

Ya it’s like a cold front but does have a thick snow band haha

#2

TBH, I'd prefer like 970-980....the super intense lows always do strange things with QPF and end up porking in terms of snowfall...like that Jan 4th deal back in 2018.

CMC was wester with the gulf piece but NS did not cooperate and it was too positive. Hopeful it can evolve positively from there though.

Throwback!

yeah i think that's the one to watch. very tough to get two waves in two days and the 18th has a more favorable config to work with

18th also fits my progression better...never been to keen on mid-month.

Going to have to hope something speeds up or slows down, because if not, we’ll all end up with very little. Wave spacing issues have been a consistent them for close to a decade now, and it’s often sunk any decent hemispheric patterns we’ve had, especially over the last 5-6 years

I have nothing to add regarding any of the specific threats, they are all too far out for me to waste time on run to run permutations. But my general thoughts regarding the overall pattern is that it's been pretty rare for us to time up a good h5 pattern with our snowiest climo period (which is by far mid Jan to mid Feb). One of our problems, among many, over the last 10 years as been that our best chances for snow have come outside that period. We've been fighting for scraps along the edges of the cold season in many years. Right now the pattern across all guidance for the second half of January looks very favorable. It's supported by tropical forcing. If we get an extended cold pattern from mid January into Feb I'll take my chances. It won't help us with the STJ, we're going to have to deal with phasing and NS issues and it will still be a struggle, but one we have a much better chance of winning if we get a good pattern timed up during our snowiest climo period.