All Activity

Saw this in March 2018(?) where the gfs was all snow from a coastal but the NAM continually showed a warm tongue going all the way back to York County. We all just shrugged it off as the hi res nam over forecasting the warm tongue. It was correct and actually not aggressive enough with that feature. Iirc, the gfs never even caved to the nam, it just stubbornly bombed that storm forecast.

If it makes it across

Why is there event total 1 am Sunday to 7 pm Sunday... that isn't even the total event? Or am I missing something

Too low

Ty sir.

I was going to go back and look, but it seems like the little storm we had last Jan, ran a low into the foot of the apps. Killed the mid-levels quickly.

Only through 7pm Sunday fyi

I wonder if they expect a south tick given the highest amounts are in the southern zones? NVM I realize this is only through 7 PM Sunday.

So is euro trending slowly to the gfs idea? Guess time will only tell now.

For Baltimore at this point I'm thinking a floor of 6" and a ceiling of 10" based on the recent runs.

I haven't checked Steve's friend's (hurricant hunter source) update for today...but more should be gathered today. I definitely thought of that. My guess is that Arctic air mass is finally out of the information void above the Arctic Circle.

Eh ZR is coming the question is how much

I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm

Unlike Joe, I do think Chicago cashes in, but more than like by means of lake effect.

And not to nitpick but goddammit after all these years we still have to reference things in zulu time. I HATE converting to EST. C'mon @MN Transplant hook a brother up and just do AM/PM for the dumb people. Like....me

Starts in Western NC early afternoon on Saturday and should spread across the state as the night goes on. Goes through out the day Sunday and ends later Sunday evening/night. As many folks have mentioned it could start several hours earlier than expected on Sat.

I'm pulling for you guys to my south. Best of luck to all of you.

Concur- Had people ice skating down our streets...laid awake listening to branches breaking and thumping down. No repeats needed. Driving was impossible.

liking this!

Ah. Sure did. What is interesting about that is that means the model will likely have to correct downstream as it approaches. It is a decent sign modeling is behind the curve after about 36 hours or so.

I'm thinking the last decade skewed everyone.

6.47 miles, give or take a few feet. More seriously, I always take "N&W" to mean changes start at the fall line, with snow amounts, ratios, whatever getting better as you go further N&W from there.

My O' my how the mood has changed in here after one run...

I KNOW a lot of that west of 85 will be sleet. For triangle folks, this to me would mean at least 0.5” and up to 0.75” of accrual if it was light instead of heavy. As in, December 2002 redux