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Geez! That’s a good run. This might really happen guys!

Latest from GSP. I am hopeful we get less precip looking at short range guidance

When was the last time Greensburg got 20" of snow?

This now has the look of a classic DC to Boston MECS. I do think the megalopolis is all in game for 12”+

I still see you getting a half in of ice...

yea that’s 18-24” for us and while it matches NBM, not buying it for now. I’d like to see rgem tick the nam’s way with the monday stuff then I may think about shoving all my chips in…

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I am beginning to think we might escape the worst of it due to less moisture. Seems like almost every short range model has trended west with the precip and weaker overall.

I think it’s really only 2 things at this point that will determine what’s going to happen here…. 1. Where does the low transfer to the coast? That transfer point makes all the difference 2. Where does the sleet line reach. Part of that is affected by the transfer location and another is how long it takes to push out the dense cold air in place at the mid levels. One thing is very clear, the QPF has steady increased from most models averaging 0.8-1.1 to now 1.5+. That’s a substantial increase in the amount of moisture and potential snowfall. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised with 18-24 inch totals somewhere in the northern subs. .

Looking at the 12z 3km NAM only through 7pm but it shows what I suspect will happen - a quick 6" to 9" of snow across Chester County up to the LV and a change to sleet all the way up to ABE from noon through 3pm from south to north. Then 0.5" north to 2" south of sleet on which to 7" to 10" of snow/sleet by 7pm....if this went further I believe it will show a change back to all snow later like the 12km at night with maybe a couple more inches which gets us to 9" to 12" across the area from Southern Chesco up to ABE.

Hundreds of model runs but never a waiver 15 to 20 lollies to 24

Plenty of support for widespread 14-18:1 ratios across SNE for the heaviest rates

In lunenburg.

North yesterday. South today. Any way to screw SNE

12z NAM printing out 20-24” for the 84 corridor lol. Ehh

See below. Add 2 inches to everywhere because its still snowing. I cant get last frame.

Your earlier thinking had given me hope. Alas

The city is going to mix regardless. I think the most important thing to do now is to stop looking for n/s trends and start looking at when the mix happens and how much snow you can get before then.

Just got an ice storm warning for my area.

NOAA just posted a winter storm warning for most of East Tennessee up to 3 inches of snow and up to 4/10 of an inch of ice

Love kissing the DGZ on the ground.

Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?

Last negative nancy post then I'll try and dial it in - we keep pushing this storm back. It was a Friday night storm at one point! Now we're not really getting going til after midnight, and even then we don't seem to get rates til maybe 4am. Really, really, annoying.