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I’m so tired of these failed rain events. It’s so dry around here

High of 87 yesterday. 0.31” of overnight rain from a decaying line of storms.

I can't say that there is a single cause. Stochastic variability, the rapid rise of the ongoing strong El Niño, and myriad marine heatwaves are all affecting the patterns and pattern evolution.

A much needed soaking rainstorm here just east of HVN. This was officially my wettest 6 day period since moving up here. Now at 4.84 for July. This is the highest precipitation month here since October 2025. Maximum 6-Day Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT since 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4.91 2021-07-06 through 2021-07-11 0 2 4.84 2026-07-01 through 2026-07-06 0 Monthly Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 1.50 1.19 4.87 1.67 3.17 1.96 4.84 M M M M M 19.20 2025 0.73 2.77 3.73 2.53 5.28 1.39 2.55 1.05 3.25 5.39 1.57 2.45 32.69 2024 5.39 1.33 9.48 3.16 4.54 3.41 4.33 6.03 1.16 0.32 2.71 4.80 46.66

This has been an absolutely bizarre stretch. A few days of well above normal temperatures followed by severe storms followed by well below normal temperatures before moderating back to normal. Rinse and repeat.

Up to about 0.7”

Do you know what is causing the wild temperature swings this spring and summer? This is like the 5th month in a row, dating back to March, where we have set a new temperature swing record.

Drizzle, cloudy “spring” morning. .

0.47. A far cry from what most models were showing. There were a ton of red flags with this, which, unsurprisingly, ended up panning out. We knew

The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below. The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06 1 106.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 5 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 102.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 6 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08 - 101.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 7 100.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 100.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 100.0 2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24

0.64” overnight 1.31” last 3 days

The four-day interval between Central Park's high of 100° on July 2 and its high of 69° yesterday is the shortest on record between a high of 100° or above and a high in the 60s. The old record of 10 days was set from July 3-13, 1898 and tied during August 1-11, 1933. Records go back to 1869.

63F/ .29" so far.

It appears to be raining

2.5 inches total from the last 2 nights.

7.43" for this event, 7.56" for the month. Picked up another .01 in the last hour, maybe today it actually stops, it should.

For all the hype talk about the big ridging and heat for the CONUS coming up central and west, looking at the anomalies fcst, esp. at 850, it isn't nearly as impressive as you would think for a large 600 dm high center spread out over the country. Take a look at the 00z ECMWF at 162 hr 500/850 when the 600 dm center is most prominent (attached). Big heat is limited to the northern tier, and just MEH central and south. What is happening in this case, the ridge center and axis is so far N, you actually get very weak troughing and a rather moist tropical-type air mass over much of the southern half of the country (see 700 RH fcst attached). Pattern for us looks quite good for svr. "Over the top" ridge EML should be fed nicely into the NEUS.

Stein blaming the bust on lack of weather balloons.

0.25” overnight, better than nothing!

Missed close by a thunderstorm last night. I got about a half inch, but the Mesonet two miles away got 1.33

I think ill be able to physically watch the grass grow the next couple days

About 5" less then the HRRR was giving me.

Yah but the 00z ECMWF shows Weymouth still getting 4"!!! LOL.