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There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open ) It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution. Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity. The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response => eastern CONUS ridging. It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable. If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far anyway. Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns. This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held a 85 Kind of 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now.

That was a helluva downpour here. Gotta be 1"+ totals from that.

Did the Atlantic dry up in the drought why is there little moisture with a southeast fetch

Probably 0.6” total here now.

Why is that sky that weird color?

All this time it was fat drops and pouring, now it has turned into much finer droplets and still pretty moderate.

I guess we get screwed out of seeing Haley's Comet debris/showers in the early morning hours pre dawn tomorrow due to cloudy skies...

Still haven't gotten anything here, but some trying to move in.

.25-50" totals through guidance for remainder of this slow ass low passage

Someone’s drought got busted. Just not ours.

Some up slope flow as the moisture gets squeezed out by the hills NW of the Fall Line

This last batch might be the drought buster part that this thread was referencing.

Crushed here-but it's moved NW of us now so rates have lightened up.

I'm about to get a flush hit. Getting aggressive outside.

Frederick again. Amazing.

Just had marble sized hail in Fuquay...lasted 10 minutes. Nice suprise!

Breezy with an off and on drizzle here. Just the kind of rainy day I like...not.

Rains not dissapointing in SW Nassua. Basically training consistent moderate with a few heavy bursts. Easily over an inch.

It’s been pretty consistently shitty on the weekends for a while. Never had a great spring skiing weekend this season.

Those are some good rainers moving SE-to-NW into southern FredCo. I got under the edge of one a little while ago in Darnestown and it was coming down! FredCo looking like a winner in this event so far

Cell coming up from the South and it is pouring. Lightning strike very close sent the cats running for under the beds.

Through yesterday, this has been the sixth warmest spring to date. By my calculation, May would need to finish with an average temperature of 68.1F to tie the record for warmest spring (set in 2024). Currently, the month to date is at 65.4F. We will lose some ground this week; however, there are some indications of a warmer weather pattern by the middle of the month. Either way, a top five warmest spring season is looking increasingly likely.

STW up for most of AKQ CWA

Rain shower.