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  2. Brian D
    That's in the mix too. Don't get me wrong, but there will be CAD too. I mentioned this because we are expecting a very mild winter overall with a strong El Nino, but there is more to it than that with the other metrics that influence NA wx patterns. To much hyper focus on one metric.
  3. jm1220
    Brutal day. This feels worse than the days we hit 100 but less humidity. Just atrocious.
  4. weatherwiz
    Could easily grab the data from Iowa State but it felt like you really had to wait until August to get 70F dewpoints...they would happen in June or July but it was a short duration...likely just out ahead of an approaching cold front. I also remember back in the late 2000's when I became introduced to weather models and even maybe early 2010's...we'd see the NAM go with dewpoints like 72-73-74 and it would be tossed. The NAM had a tendency to go bonkers with dewpoints. Now you see those dewpoints modeled and there's no tossing lol
  5. NEG NAO
    clear blue skies and no smoke like the previous northwest flow heat waves,,,,,,,,,,,
  6. rclab
    I remember in my younger days we called them the Dog Days of August. I believe the Almanacs called it the Dog days of Summer. As always …..
  7. jaxjagman
    This dont ATM seem to look anything like 2015-2016 Strong NINO. The strong Nino during this time started early in 2014,during 2015 the Walker Circulationn got funky and just as much the Hadley.You saw much stronger trade winds blowing off South America.Compared to 82-97,those NINOs were Central and East Based,2015 was central and west based
  8. weatherwiz
    You would think with the increasing dews and longevity of higher dewpoints (we'll say 70+) that would yield potential for stronger and more widespread events but that has not been the case. This is more thought so data could prove otherwise, but it also seems like summer cold fronts have a tendency to be weaker (which would make some deal of sense given a warmer Arctic). Just from memory though with the 90's it felt like these periods of excessive dews were much less common and we had to wait until like August to really get them. When we did get those hot and humid days the duration was barely heat wave criteria and it would end with a strong front, a big line of storms and then we would have a stretch of days with 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's. We'll probably eventually cycle back but the dataset is so small its hard to say what the return rate for such a stretch is. Maybe there is a bit of luck involved too. It seemed like we timed good EMLs with fronts pretty well from the mid-to-late 90's and then went forever without a good EML event.
  9. forkyfork
    the cold has been concentrated near the pole while the mid latitudes have been on fire
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Normalized CAPE and 12z RAOB from IAD/RNK/PIT would argue skinny CAPE profiles. Shear is also pretty weak too, but the 1.8" - 2" PWATs would suggest isolated flash flooding is the bigger risk, especially around any surface boundaries.
  11. mayjawintastawm
    Aaaaand... I'm now in D4 drought, first time in my life I think I have been there. A 30 foot tall, 45 year old pine in my yard is dying from lack of water, trying to save it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could totally see double digit + departures in December.
  13. CoastalWx
    I remember so many of those storms growing up when I was a kid. If not over me, then nearby. Even the 00s were good. I can't find a good scientific explanation, but convection has really been lame since 2015. Although I will say my hood has had a few doozies with wind damage...but I mean from an overall perspective.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good summer?
  15. MJO812
    Its disgusting outside
  16. SouthCoastMA
    86/77.5 things sticking to every surface
  17. canderson
    Yea it’s suffocating out - humidity level here is a whopping 76%.
  18. MANDA
    Don't know the exact number but I think numerous locations were between 115-120 at least. Was just nasty.
  19. JTA66
    I stepped outside so you don’t have to… 88F/DP 76F
  20. MANDA
    Same here. Never felt it more nasty HI wise before or since. It was stifling beyond words. You literally could not take 10 steps with starting to drip sweat.
  21. Stormlover74
    Heat index of 129 I believe
  22. NEG NAO
    should be interesting around here later today - expect severe watches and flood watches
  23. nw baltimore wx
    Well, clearly I’m more lazy than you.
  24. Today
  25. frd
    He did not post it, and I was lazy to dig further. My bad.
  26. nw baltimore wx
    ¡Excelente! ¿Dónde está febrero?
  27. Keith Central PA
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