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Yesterday was the nicer day of the weekend, so my wife and I headed up to Bolton Valley for some spring skiing. Temperatures were in the 40s F up on the mountain, although I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some 30s F up in the 3,000’ range. The sunniest part of the day was early afternoon, and altogether the sun and temperatures were enough to nicely soften the snowpack in many areas. Conditions were still somewhat inconsistent though, with firm areas underneath the spring snow in various spots that made the skiing a bit more challenging than when you get those perfect sunny days with just the right temperatures that set up great corn snow that is soft but not sticky. One of the best areas we visited was the lower half of Hard Luck, it had some of the most consistent surfaces and just the right pitch to go with it. Surprisingly, Spillway right next door was closed, and it was perhaps due to its steep pitches with some of those areas that had been scoured and were very icy.

Cooler conditions will return to the region tomorrow. Temperatures will likely top out in the 50s through Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely struggle to reach the lower 50s. Wednesday morning could see the low temperature approach 32° in New York City. Should the mercury reach 32°, New York City would see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around March 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -7.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.006 today.

Rainforest almost matched my yearly amount in one event.

We jelly

I'm a shorts and t-shirt in winter kind of person. However, you are a special case. lol

.91 “ Got under some heavy little cells .

Exactly a half inch here too, and still a steady light to moderate rain falling. Should end in the next hour. Much needed.

Happy Easter IMG_20260405_152204.heic

Hope you get stung by a jelly fish you insensitive bastard!

From our great friend DT: Each new recycle of the monthly Climate models that come out continue to show a stronger and stronger El Nino event developing this summer and lasting for at least a year. This graph is from the April 1st European climate model which just came out today April 5. The European climate model consists of 100 different members and 95 of the 100 are in the Super El Nino category. A "SUPER" El Nino is only happened three times since 1945: the events of -- 1982-83 1997-98 2015-16. So in one sense we are kind of due for a strong El Nino event. But really has been the debate among meteorologists and climatologists for the past 60 days - will this upcoming El Nino event be a STRONG El Nono or very strong/ SUPER El Nino event? This has significant implications locations around the globe especially when it's this strong.. it probably means that 1 There is going to be a severe possibly historic drought in Indonesia 2 There is likely to be major or historic drought in the Amazon basin. Obviously this has significant implications for Farming the food supply and for commodity grain Traders. 3 a wet and cool summer in the eastern US 4 Drought for Europe 5 Weaker than normal Indian monsoon -- possibly much below normal. 6 Expect damaging flooding rains and historic storms on the west coast next winter, 7 mild winter across the East Coast and the Midwest. 8 below and / or much below normal hurricane season

I was a kid and I remember the starkness in seasons that struck me

I got hit moderate to heavy for abut abd ended up with 0.50”

Back edge of rain ready to roll through. Picture perfect Easter day, cloudy, raw, damp and a bit cool. Should hit below freezing 2 nights this week so that's a positive/something to look forward to. I know for a fact Voyager is very excited like a little kid on Christmas morning... 54F

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino. 23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

IMG_20260405_152204.heic

Long season, but the Orioles completely suck right now.

I managed 0.70" today on the western edge of Ballenger Creek.

If this materializes it won't end well for any of us....

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

Finished with .60" of welcomed rainfall. I hope everyone is enjoying your Easter Sunday.

.37 is my total. A bit disappointing but I’ll take whatever we can get.

Give me the precip and I will roll the dice

If you looked hard enough I bet you could actually see the grass growing today.

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

I remember that event well. Was a heavy wet snow