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It's coming

Still snowing here. Pixie dust.

Thanks Don…didn’t realize that was an ensemble mean..that was why I was a little confused. Makes sense.

it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO

Christ on a cracker

I’d initially thought of heading out for a lift-served alpine skiing session today to check out the snow from Winter Storm Fern, but while temperatures have been warming somewhat since the cold spell over the weekend, morning temperatures were still going to start out in the rather unappealing single-digit F range. Once the snow reports started coming in though, it was clear that there wasn’t much elevation dependence with the storm, and that made the idea of touring at Bolton’s Timberline area where the uphill route has just officially opened for the season, a bit more appealing. And with the Timberline Quad not running on Mondays and Tuesdays, the area was only going to see ski touring levels of traffic. It was clearly a god day for a Timberline tour, and a number of people had similar thoughts - there were more than a dozen cars in the Timberline parking lot when I arrived in the mid to late-morning timeframe. Temperatures had risen into the double digits F, and backside snows were continuing to add to the accumulations. By the midday timeframe I was finding a general 12-18” of powder depending on exposure. Areas with 12” weren’t quite enough to deliver bottomless turns on the steepest pitches, but 18” was enough to do it. The quality of the powder was simply fantastic, with a right-side-up gradient that started off around 11% H2O and tapered down to the 1-3% H2O range. It was so super dry champagne that it skied well on any pitch – you could crash the steep pitches, and the snow was so light and dry that it simply let you float your way down through even lower-angle terrain.

Ahh ok. I didn’t know that was an ensemble mean. Was thinking it was an Op run. That makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification. Appreciate it.

Everyone here always talks about getting crushed so take it as a win.

Snow cover doing work.

Apparently the next name on their list is Gianna

Are you saying I need to buy a snow blower?

Yeah that's sick. Also look at the trends over the past few runs. The signal is crazy

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

At 118" here, no warmup in sight. Should be an easy 150"+ winter! Just an incredible stretch here in lake effect country.

My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time. We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.

I kinda want to see my parents get a foot in SC

I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so (relatively) far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement.

This was the same lead time where everything shifted NW for the storm two days ago. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Jan 19 and it became evident that we were going to amp up. The CMC was the first to show this.

Funny, I feel like you wouldn’t be making this statement if you were here for the storm. Stop acting like a child and move on. Nobody cares that you missed the storm. I

This clown map looks like a guitar. I think TWC should name this one Prince. I will see myself out.

This solution is pretty incredible. Its literally a piece of the PV lobe breaking off and phasing with a piece of energy in the STJ. The heights would be anomalously low for our area if it were to actually occur. Its extremely rare and also why we should understand the high bust potential of this. Let's hope it works out for a change.

They call these clown maps for a reason. Really, multiple reasons. A: They have an unbelievable look. B: They're funny as hell. I mean, I don't understand fluid dynamics, so I shouldn't talk. But I know climo, and there's no way that this map is ever going to verify even if the storm took the track that was advertised. Bring on the King.

Thing looks like a fuckin hurricane on the CMC

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up.