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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective mode around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.
  3. CoastalWx
    It’s also hard for my hood to get to below 32 before 11/1. Might be similar to ORH although I think I hit it once. Since 2020. I did get to 23 on 10/31/20 with 5” OTG lol.
  4. MJO812
    Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating. Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.
  5. Torchageddon
    The NWS does ranges for forecast temps!? 64-76 wtf
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. bluewave
    You need the Pacific to back off in order for that to happen which is difficult with such an historic east based El Niño.
  8. mitchnick
    Weeklies were cold last year and were correct. Not all the time, but more often than not. I specifically recall your posts in that regard.
  9. MJO812
    Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do.
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  11. weatherwiz
    I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front.
  12. bluewave
    If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?
  13. Brewbeer
    why do you believe the methodology they have employed is incorrect? is it because it results in a narrative and call for action that you oppose for unspecified reasons? can you provide some reasonable explanation even if you only have 33% of the data? that's an incredible amount of data, surely there MUST be SOMETHING systemic in the methodology you can point to that is scientifically invalid? your continued evasiveness on this issues is boring
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That didn't take long
  16. mahantango#1
    This morning
  17. WinstonSalemArlington
  18. WinstonSalemArlington
  19. anotherman started following October 2026 Medium/Long Range and Winter 2026-2027 Digital Snow Thread
  20. A-L-E-K
    we've had way too much halloween snow lately, 60 is
  21. Today
  22. Mikeymac5306
    Of course it does. It's time to pick up leaves!
  23. pawatch
    42 degrees this morning. Any time Green Bay gets beat it always the officiating. Though they did miss two field goals. Thats basically why I don’t follow the NFL Football anymore because of the officiating.
  24. DocATL
    Not great trends for Halloween. Possible rain and around 60° for the festivities. Could be worse I guess.
  25. bluewave
    The exact locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  26. WxUSAF
    A SSW this early IS unprecedented
  27. Brewbeer
    45/36 this morning, no frost today
  28. EasternLI
    Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb.
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