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Source region is rebuilt in western Canada by MLK weekend, offering a new cold air supply that should leak into the northeast. I am seeing more signals for active southern stream as well. Think end Jan to early Feb looks pretty decent setup wise at this early juncture as well.

I'm sorry you're feeling pretty defeated. But I have to disagree with you. Keeping it real is one thing, but you've teetered over to the point of self-loathing. I'm not trying to read you at all, but once you get to this point, everything is a negative. Is the pattern amazing, no, but is there there some real good guidance to the pattern becoming much better, yes. So your garbage pattern theory might be good for the next week but after that not so much. My biggest hope is we do get a really good storm that will brighten everyone up including you and give everybody what they're looking for.

Not much on the ground here and it looks like it’ll completely disappear by tomorrow.

Looking at the numbers, map looks pretty accurate. For the period since December 15, Omaha had it warmest mean high temps (by more than 2F!). With Des Moines in 4th place by the same metric: Moline officially in 13th place by this metric, but 4 of those years predate the start date of IEM's analysis. So 9th warmest since 1893.

Yup I remember that.. the Dgex nailed it!!!!

Well that sucked. I always assumed that Lancaster City and Columbia Borough were the last 2 districts to close, but I didn't pay attention that super close.

why was the thread deleted? We might've jinxed it here lol

Seems like a 50/50 low locks everything in? Not a terrible spot for the antecedent high, not great either. IIRC, that setup worked for 12/19/09 too.

DGEX and then the DGEX and Canadian for the 2/10 event.

I’m not disputing Eric, but it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the cold E US is still favored in Feb even with a +AO/+NAO. Wx history is so fascinating!

Yea it is a fascinating climo around here. Yea I was on shift when we got that .2" lol did not expect the season to be just horrid. Unfortunately Baltimore may have some snow total issues for storms in the future. We are no longer measuring as weather observers it is across the airfield now, measured by EMS.

The low pressure over the lakes will not allow this storm to come up north. It acts as a kicker and pushes the weak low pressure out to sea. Regardless of any model surface map depictions, as long as you see that Great Lakes low, you can pretty much write off a storm climbing up the coast. Western ridge is in good spot. This is one of the times where we would want a western Atlantic ridge to try to trap that storm in. Still plenty of time for changes but until that changes, this threat is non existent

I do remember that!!!

Been quite a while since we had a miller A coming up from the gulf!!! Hope it holds and I hope other models get on board!!

Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.

Updated through today: The commentary on the original post is kind of funny. FFS, how much hotter do the Iowans want? Not every period needs to be record breaking, does it? Source: IEM :: 2026-01-07 Feature - Quite Warm Three Weeks

Plenty of snow left but I doubt it will survive past tomorrow night. .

One of my rox mounts actually did break and I had to zip tie to get home with it, had almost 6,000 miles of abuse and then a smooth ride with the wife at 50-60 mph with no bumps and it breaks I do appreciate the Maine insight you have, definitely a different world up here than other areas. Hope you guys do alright down there too, trends look promising. You should have good riding I imagine with the snow the past few days and what's coming this weekend. We need a good season after these past 5 disappointments.

As @Terpeast and @WxUSAF have often said, worry about thermals inside D5.

Kuchera better

Icon.... The 2026 version of the Dgex lol

Yea there's a decent moisture feed with that storm and it looks fairly neutral at 500 mb?

That block north of Maine is what I like to see for our bigger storms.

I thought you guys might appreciate my windshield