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Hopefully we have a decent weekend for the 4th, hot summer time temperatures would be acceptable. Certainly looks warm next week. Should be a good week to spend some time in the pool.

ICON gone wild next week.. some will be happy lol

Right on cue, rainfall looks to be on the increase as we near the end of June and head into early to mid July. Higher dew points, tropical connections, cold fronts and El Nino. https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/2070165098128142678 The rain signal picking up for portions of the Southeast as we move into July.

heh 12z GFS is no where near the NAM's idea. Having seen that...I gotta lean on the NAM being the NAM N-W bias at 60 hours. If this were circa November 20th and we were in the midst of a cool snap anyway whether there's anything on the charts or not ... Ineedelectroshock posters of the forum would be presently representing their razor sharp objective restraint by going hee-haw hee-haw galloot galloot galloot over this NAM's 6-10" warning snow event, having fully considered and judiciously constrained their emotions over the matter .... Maybe the Euro or some other model supports.

This weeks rainfall was helpful as generally 1-2.5” fell across the exceptional drought area though we would need to see repeated systems do the same to see any real progress. Sadly looks to be going back into the fryer this coming week with no signs of additional widespread rains

That’s a good question. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (exponentially) but i’d think it also takes more to actually wring it out. The warmer SSTs certainly help with that. Intuitively i think the “magic number” would have to go up as it warms.

Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?

Upper 30's/40's this morning again. Highs around 70 today. Missed out on any rain yesterday as it dried up before reaching town. Areas to my W picked up 0.50-2" where the rain slowly moved through before dissipating.

That is the question! I hope we can do it but I am still on the fence about whether it happens or not.

Yeah that is exactly what I was getting at. I am not sure if +30C is a magic number per say, as strong enough subsidence from a +IOD and +ENSO circulation might be able to keep a lid on it. But I do think the general idea is correct that if the surface is warm enough you will still get storm activity and forcing from that area.

This is all true but in theory, if you get much warmer SSTs to the east, it can generate conditions suppress convection to the west regardless if the SSTs to the west are “warm enough” for convection. It likely just takes stronger +ENSO conditions than before to achieve. I’m increasingly convinced we will actually achieve this (suppressed MC) with this event.

I have an irrational fascination with floods. Not sure why...as it's morally ambiguous to gawk. But they're an amazingly powerful force - too much so perhaps to resist. A truly, truly awesome specter to behold, when even a small brook swells to a 1:500 year return rate raging Amazonian rival... to the point where a Town Hall's annexed church's steeple has a cat clinging to it for life. When a orbital survey of the land clearly suggests it was always some sort of alluvial plain - like the Mississippi Valley, 1993 say... Gee, let's construct a civility there! weee When the Louisiana Purchase took place ... the parting gift to the purchasers ( in this case, the U.S. Gubberment ... why - ) was a bit of advice by the retreating French: "Attempt no city there". But "Americaaa FUCK YEAH!" thought otherwise I suppose.

June 25 2003: Heavy rain falls across central Minnesota. Elk River picks up 8.19 inches. 4.36 inches fall in 4 hours in Maplewood, and there are reports of street flooding in St. Paul. Strong winds topple trees in Richfield. 1950: Flooding hits Warroad. Strong winds accompany waters that rose 4 feet in 10 minutes. For Thursday, June 25, 2026 1749 - A general fast was called on account of drought in Massachusetts. It was the year of the famous dry spring in which fields and villages burned. (David Ludlum) 1925 - The mercury hit 101 degrees at Portland, OR, their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1953 - The temperature at Anchorage soared to 86 degrees, their hottest reading of record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Miami, FL, 107 degrees at Medford, OR, and 111 degrees at Redding CA were new records for the date. It was the third of six straight days of record heat for Miami. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Austin, and gusts to 75 mph at Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 100 degrees at Erie, PA, and 104 degrees at Cleveland OH established all- time records for those two locations. Highs of 101 degrees at Flint, MI, 105 degrees at Chicago, IL, and 106 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, equaled all-time records. Thunderstorms in Idaho produced wind gusts to 100 mph west of Bliss and north of Crouch, injuring 29 persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Tropical depression Allison, the remnants of what was earlier Cosme (a hurricane over the Pacific Ocean which dissipated as it crossed northern Mexico), began to spread heavy rain into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 25 Thu Battle of the Little Bighorn 25 Thu Korean War 25 Thu National Work From Home Day 25 Thu Bourdain Day 25 Thu Global Beatles Day 25 Thu National Handshake Day 25 Thu Ashura 25 Thu Backyard Safety Check Day 25 Thu Goats Cheese Day 25 Thu International Day of the Seafarer 25 Thu National Camp Counts Day 25 Thu National Catfish Day 25 Thu National Croatian Wine Day 25 Thu National Leon Day 25 Thu National Olaplex Day 25 Thu National Strawberry Parfait Day 25 Thu World Vitiligo Day

Crystal Ball says we end the month with a mean temp of 73.9 degrees, about a degree and a half AN and good for 13th warmest all-time. Book it.

SSTs near +30°C will produce forcing that overlaps with the primary El Nino standing wave. Plus large areas of mid-latitude record SST warmth will add a -PDO La Niña-like influence. The coming heatwave for late June into early July is something we more have associated with strong La Niña or -PDO patterns. The analog composite and July coorelations are mostly comprised of established La Ninas or developing La Nina’s with a strong +SOI.

Something to watch for sure. This setup, if verified, could argue for some flooding potential across southern CT. southern CT right on the edge of the stronger llvl jet and more robust elevated CAPE with the boundary just south. Perfect scenario for training

NAMS are drenchers-others alot drier.

watch us get a 5-7" un-forecasted rain bomb out of nowhere by training 55 dbz rain cores in along a linear band of 40

I also had been missing out with storms going north and south of me, and mostly by a wide margin. However this morning we had a nice, gentle 3 hour rain. It only amounted to 0.19" but I'll take it.

The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read: Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run: I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

I have also experienced it! As the site is a daily, albeit, digital socialization outlet for me, I pave noticed it in the previous two days. Thank you GaWx, as always …..

Stalls that cold front just to our south tomorrow evening and then either slowly lifts it back north as a warm front or just remains a stationary front with a wave developing along it. GFS has it too. Wonder if alot of this depends on MCS developing and evolution tomorrow within the midwest

Yeah, the fastest El Niño development experienced during modern record keeping.