All Activity

I don't mean "deathblow" to winter...as in winter over; quite the opposite. It's just getting started, as frustrating as it's been.

Tough to call it full coverage this morning but it's close. Still over 80% cover but it's pretty thin. This dense freezing fog kinda sux

Social media noise about pattern chaos and dramatic shifts in social media videos notwithstanding, I am impressed how drama-free and orderly the pattern progression has been so far this month. The East was supposed to experience a thaw of about a week or so. That's playing out nicely. Afterward, a gradual transition toward colder but not severely cold weather was expected to occur. That's poised to play out. Most of the southern tier with the exception of the Southwest where a well-signaled intrusion of cold is now underway, was expected to stay mild. It has. Going forward, the progression toward cold from the Great Lakes to the Northeast (Mid-Atlantic and New England) remains on course. No significant Arctic outbreaks or snowstorms are likely through mid-month. Afterward, there is potential for the cold pattern to become snowy, but that's where the largest uncertainty rests. If the PNA undergoes a regime change to predominantly positive values near or after mid-month, prospects for East Coast snowstorms would increase. If not, frequent, but smaller snowfalls would be the norm. An WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern is generally cold regardless of the PNA except in the Southeast (PNA+ is cold). By the end of this weekend, one should have higher confidence in the PNA evolution. Historically, a regime change is favored following the break in long-duration winter PNA- periods. But one cannot rule out a more unusual situation where the PNA only briefly goes positive before returning to its mainly negative state. However, extended range PNA forecasts which have low skill are insufficient. Overall, January still appears on course for a colder than normal outcome from the Great Lakes to New England. The southern tier from the desert southwest across to the Southeast will likely wind up with warm anomalies. Cold shots will still be possible, particularly in the Southeast as the month advances. Finally, with respect to the La Niña, the atmosphere remains well-coupled. The AAM- is powerful proof that things remain coupled. Nevertheless, the La Niña continues to fade, and that process will continue through the winter. Weekly figures could begin to reach values just below La Niña threshold during late January. A significant WWB is possible this month. If it occurs, it would be unusual but not unprecedented. One such WWB occurred during Winter 2016-17. That a WWB might occur won't necessarily mean that February has to be cold. February 2017 wound up being exceptionally warm. I do not expect that scenario this time around. The full range of variables easing influence of ENSO, teleconnections, etc., will determine the February 2026 outcome.

I mean that that PV is going to ultimately incur a severe disruption that will end in a split, after the stretching of the next few weeks.

What do you mean with the death-blow in February ( sorry... Not sure if you mean it's gone or it's gonna be a doozy )

I was just mentioning in the ENSO thread, we are going to stretch the shit out of the PV during the second half of January, then the death-blow will come in February....we should end up splitting that b!tch in two. The +TNH setting up next week is the precursor to that major wave 2 disruption that will culminate in a February split. We are going places pattern wise, and the snow should follow suite.

The theme for latter January will be stretching....the knock out punch comes in February.

always nice to keep the D1 at bay

Cold, icy and windy has characterized this winter so far.

Yeah icy again this morning. Black ice of yore.

https://phys.org/news/2026-01-ocean-temperatures-high.html

There will be something of significance this month...we aren't making it to February in single-digits.

Some areas over 3" downtown. ORD at 1.9"

I like that period better......beyond mid-month.

Well said. I think CC is playing a part in the absence of winter weather over the past several years, but it's not "the new norm"....it's just accentuating and protracting these oscillations. Just my take...I think it also played a role in the snow-blitz of 2015.

Beautiful color thos morning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

yeah that was cool

this is the final PNS from BOX on Feb 13th

The ice this winter has been tough. Roads everyday this week just ice everywhere

You can't seriously be taking anything the GFS says at hr 233 as gospel can you? Last week Chicago went from a Blizzard at hour 141 to a rainstorm one run later.

I'll have to try to dig out my old notes wherever the hell they are lol. If I'm remembering correctly East Windsor had a hair more than Simsbury although maybe I'm of the information backwards. I know the Simsbury measurement is correct

Oh look... Giant ass hole right where it always seems to be.

Some of their maps are LOL

Met your precip quota for the rest of the winter last night.

Sea level rise is accelerating along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Here are Savannah and Cape May for instance. Data available at link below. https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/395.php Savannah Cape May