All Activity

That really was PD2 and then some. 2’ down and way more to come lol.

You got as much rain in 24 hours as we’ve had last 4 months combined

Glad I stayed the extra night down here.

1.64" total. A bit more rain than I expected overnight.

Yeah when you see that depiction, it looks like we’d get slammed but then it just shears out.

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.

Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19

It’s a very flawed set up as currently depicted now. I’m thinking this has too many flies in the ointment to be anything more then a nuisance at best. I mean there’s plenty of time, but we’ve seen this before. All these other issues are more likely to overwhelm the evolution, and hamper development.

2” Showers :flakes ? Unless he’s talking about end of week storm

It looks like the euro is going to swing and slam that consolidated vortmax up to the Cape like the goofus and then it just gets sheared and stretched out. But like Bob said, a bowling ULL going W-E through the TN valley/MidAtl is a little far south for my liking. Maybe SNE can cook with it, but I’ll need a lot more trending in the deeper interior.

Man that’s all I want.

Yeah I’m confused

Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern.

He is. Huge severe wx weenie too.

Don't let the lack of us getting any good snow events take you down. It's not worth it. Honestly, we'll get some snow. Maybe we won't get a big one again this year and continue the drought, which sucks, but when we do get it it's all the more sweeter. Chin up

From the sound of the posts…I’m getting the feeling he’s older than you?? Is this correct?

The other issue is that all the deep moisture is way offshore. So you’re struggling to generate precip with whatever remains near the Gulf Stream. The result of such a potent s/w with a lacking BZ is that oblong looking low that remains close to the closed off H5 low. I’d like to see some changes at 12z which likely requires a low much closer to cape cod in order to get anything worthwhile.

The models give a shotgun presentation of very little this morning. Yes, I know that there are hints and sniffs, but nothing to really hone in on. Ensembles and controls are wandering around in opposition. The last half of January seems to be an active period and I believe that a focus will develop.

Kind of evolving exactly like we’ve seen for years now. If this is going to be another 2-3” event, I hope it stays towards the mid Atlantic. I truly mean that, I’m all set.

Can we get rid of kickers in football? Its about time- games shouldn't be decided by one dude who cant actually play football.

Flurries IMBY as of now. Probably means John has an inch.

Vortex and I go way back. And don’t let him fool you, he gets pumped for a big one too. When I first started he was too cool to talk to me until one day I brought up the big December 94 subtropical storm and he was flabbergasted that I remembered that storm. That’s when he knew there was a new kid in town.

How would I know?

On par with the weenie rule about not wanting kickers!!