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0Z UKMET

0Z GFS 0Z Canadian

Training storms around Lake lure tonight. A flood warning for them.

Is there any way to increase the maximum file size of an upload? 52.47 kB isn't really a lot.

Thanks for the replies. Appreciate it.

The 00Z GFS has shifted the developing low a bit farther east than the 18Z run, at least in these early frames. On the 18Z GFS, by early Friday the center was tucked closer to roughly the 70°W corridor. On the new 00Z run, the F48 center is still farther offshore, around the upper-60s west longitude, so call it roughly 100 to 150 miles east of where the prior run was trying to organize the cyclone at a comparable stage. That is not a huge jump, but it is definitely not another westward correction yet. The important part is that the blocking high is still very strong, so an initially farther-east low does not necessarily mean the later retrograde will also be farther east. With this setup, the bigger question is still where the storm gets captured and starts bending back. So, early read: 18Z: farther west early. 00Z: modest eastward shift early. Block: still very much there. The F60-F84 frames will tell us whether that eastward difference survives or whether the 00Z run bends it back toward the 18Z/Euro idea.

And just when you thought gfs was coming west like last run it goes back east

I just noticed that CHS this afternoon lowered my temps for late week into the weekend to the solidly BN range, thanks at least in part to the big nor’easter off the NE US: FRIDAY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SATURDAY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SUNDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. The treadmill may get a break during this period! Hello park! It’s a wonderful time of the year!

Let's see what the gfs says now....

ICON with the Martha’s Vineyard “landfall”. RGEM east of its 18z run. The Icon “landfall” and track actually gave me some flashbacks to Henri. Though I know these are completely different lol

WOW I am getting my daily weather readings in 13 cities and I just found out Dale City had a high today of ONLY 66 degrees! Wow 99 in Buda and 66 in Dale City! Wow autumn is right on schedule for N VA and will likely be well below normal in the low sun season!

Picked up .04" today. Just missed a heavy downpour by about a mile. 18 days now without significant rain.

Euro really wants to retrograde the coastal low and ruin the second part of the upcoming weekend.

A very disappointing 0.04" after 0.15" overnight. Two day total of 0.42". Not horrible but frustrating when downtown had had 2+.

At a minimum this upcoming storm was always going to be about a coastal flood threat and strong onshore flow with possible gales. Trends continue to support this. Coastal warnings and advisories are already posted and will likely be extended past the current expiration times. Strong onshore flow for several days / numerous high tide cycles along with a full moon. Still looks to me like the Jersey shore and L.I. Sound get the worst of the coastal flooding / erosion as far as this sub forum are concerned. Eventual surface evolution will determine if this goes past minor / to moderate coastal flooding. Surface evolution will also determine how far inland rain and gusty winds get if they make it inland at all. Complex evolution yet to be determined. If EURO persists with 00Z cycle tonight and is doing something similar at 12Z tomorrow then threat for more effects further inland would increase. Too soon to tell. Something interesting to watch this over the next few days.

Um... It's the NAM with 3-4 days to go. Are you seriously putting stock in this run (whether it's good or bad).

Someone want to start a storm thread?

hopefully it occludes way south, then is safely kicked out!