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Yeah, but if it ended up going 50-100 miles northwest like you said, would PVD still have broken 1978's record? I'm imagining a situation like Feb 2013 where the firehose sets up over CT instead of SEMA/RI. Don't get me wrong, Feb 2013 was still great around here, but it wasn't historic like what CT saw. So I guess in a way this system was like a reverse of Feb 2013 where SEMA/RI got the goods instead. Even with April 1997, Worcester got insane amounts, and Boston to a lesser degree. PVD still got 18 inches but it doesn't hold a candle to what Worcester got. So if this system had come further northwest would it have been a 1978 redux for the whole area including PVD, or more like a Feb 2013/April 1997 situation where areas north and west get the goods?

Yo @stormtracker is this somebody you know? Hahahaha (Forgive me if this is close to political but it was too good not to share)

Franklin do you know how much qpf Centeal Park got from the blizzard?

The Monday and Tuesday system continues to be a situation to watch as the current trends with this system points to an impactful late winter wet snow impact or potentially heavy rainfall. A further south track will mean all snow expected and a northerly track will make for more of a rainfall threat. Some solutions within the ensembles suggest a northern track where its too far north and precip is much less. Certainly a system that needs some monitoring.

Resulting in the typical cold and rainy spring.

I can't wait to see wsw initiated in Shenandoah while we get .02" QPF

Heading up to the cabin Thursday. Looks like wind swept winter up there still.

The precipitation can't be right. Better than 25:1 ratios for the entire month assuming none of the 1.66" was rain.

I'll take all the liquid we can get to help with these droughts. I know this storm helped a great bit. But more work needs to be done

I’d like to see what @powderfreakgets for liquid equivalent in a core sample. Until Friday night, there just hadn’t been much for qpf in the pack. Not that a warm Rainer wouldn’t cause issues, especially with the amount of ice on the rivers but I think we have some liquid storage capacity right now.

This solution looks like the typical Southern Maryland white rain so I expect it should verify.

18z Euro brings a coating to many of us by tomorrow am with the overnight Clipper.

Yeah. I don’t see anything spitting out 4” in SNE other than in far NW Mass

I drove around a bit today. Main roads are fully cleared. Some of the secondary roads aren't always wide enough for 2-way traffic, but passable. Whatever it is they were trying to do in the vicinity of the Ronkonkoma LIRR station around 1 pm was utter chaos, absolute amateur madness. Also defies imagination that they would plow Union Ave last. It's like a city Avenue. I drove from Sunrise Highway up to 25A in Stony Brook on Nichols Rd. There was more snow near Bellport than in Stony Brook but it's hard to gage how much from the car on a sunny late winter day.

South Bend picked up 9.2" from Sunday/Monday's lake effect snow event. That brings the seasonal total to 91.1". It is the 11th snowiest winter in South Bend history. Monthly Total Snowfall for South Bend Area, IN (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 30.3 33.6 86.1 16.6 5.1 T 0.0 0.0 172.0 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1 41.3 41.3 19.2 10.2 14.0 0.0 0.0 135.2 1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 21.6 37.6 37.2 13.9 15.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 129.2 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 T T 16.2 18.2 30.4 31.6 11.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 110.6 2013-2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.2 18.5 46.6 19.7 11.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 109.2 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 23.6 53.8 25.5 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 105.6 1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 3.0 41.9 16.4 21.7 10.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 102.5 1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 26.4 45.1 15.9 6.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 101.3 1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 8.7 12.4 28.3 33.9 0.7 T 0.0 95.1 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 32.4 22.0 29.6 7.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 93.1 2025-2026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 10.0 38.6 15.4 M M M M 91.1 At home, I picked up 4.8", bringing my season total to 75.6" This ties my personal record for the snowiest winter of my life. Congrats to me.

There was no way to measure but I am figuring probably 6" or so. There were some totals around here that were a bit more than that. I thought I would get around a foot here (maybe closer to 18" if the banding worked right). I expected to get screwed but not this much. One of the biggest killers (outside of being in between bands) was the snow ratios absolutely sucked. Lift was definitely above the DGZ (which was also shown well on bufkit for this area). I'm honestly more mad CT wasn't widespread 18-24" than I am missing out

Lol, come on now, I went lower than many in the January storm forecast contest for MDT & won it with my 12.5 guess. You would have won the contest this time if we had done one this past weekend. I look forward to the next chance!

Copernicus Marine showed a 76 (!) ZJ jump in OHC in '25. It's a much more volatile data series than the others, but even the smoothed IAP, etc showed ~24ZJ. Just for reference, if you plug 76 ZJ into the top 400m of the global ocean, you get +0.13C. That's oversimplified ofc, but gives you an idea of just how much heat we're dumping into the ocean. IAP's ~24ZJ gives you 0.14C if isolated to the mixing layer +1 y of extension via diffusion. And the implied EEI from that is about +1.5 W/m2. So these temp increases we're seeing at least seem plausible. We'd better hope these rates slow down, because we're talking pretty extreme rates of ocean surface warming which ofc will translate to even higher land surface temp rates. The fact that we can print a 1.44 W/m2 figure at these already very high temps is giving me some serious pause.

Please, I'm tapped out.

I remember posting in the lead-up to this event that the arc of convective snows was really catching my attention since it gave some of us instant flashbacks to April ‘97. It’s just a Firehose of convective snow streaming in from the ESE. But once the whole system trended a bit SE, the orientation changed enough to put far SE MA and much of RI in the cross hairs. We got the snow rates…it doesn’t take much imagination to think how this might have performed if it was 50-100 miles northwest like many runs had shown until the last 18-24 hours leading into the storm. That monster firehose being enhanced by convective elements would have been shot across a much larger chunk of SNE. Probably a more zonked system overall too if it was further NW. Still a great storm overall but that’s why those region-wide all-timers are so rare. You need things to line up. This one was so close though.

I think we have a long way to go until true Spring arrives this season. We have a few potential Winter events to track through next week. Then, we likely warm up for a week to 10 days. After that, the Teleconnections & MJO forecast indicate that mid March through at least early April could be a return to a colder pattern with the trough in the east. I think we are tracking Winter storm chances through Easter week in early April this year. It fits the same pattern that we have had since around Thanksgiving. Any warm ups have been brief & i think that continues.

Time to wrap this thing up and call it a season.

15.6 is super early too at 10:45AM. it was still snowing well after that. ill just use yours

Rooting for you guys further south! I love snow like any other weather weenie, and it was wonderful to watch PVD smash their previous record. However, when you are an essential worker and you need to travel in this stuff, it changes your perspective a bit.