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3k ditto. Small improvment thermally. Will it add up to much....dunno, but 700/850's are a touch better for both in NAM suite. Going out to get wood n chores done. Hoping to come back to good news. Reel this one in boys n girls

Betting markets (smart money) likes the 18Z NAM for an additional 0.6" inches vs. prior to run, for an over/under for CPK is now 11.6" for the storm.

Warning criteria is 6+

No half measures, Walter

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2. Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

NYC warning criteria is 6 inches I believe so even the NAM at its worst run was close to that but yea I agree. Also everyone’s putting a lot of stock into the NAM it’s on its own

The sun is out and it just hit 40 in Greenville.

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

30 degrees with sleet.

Neither they both suck

They look pretty similar to me at that hour.

18z nam

Since we’re on the conversation of power, keep in mind there’s two distinct outage waves in an ice event: 1. The event itself as totals get heavy for obvious reasons 2. Usually, the next part comes as you think you’re out of the woods. When the lines start shedding weight (I.e. if we get above freezing tomorrow night or Monday), that weight gets released and it causes them to bounce and snap back to form like rubber bands. When the lines bounce and contact each other, it’ll cause an outage then as well.

A touch of ZR at the end of the NAM Nest run, but mostly just drier. 1" QPF, pretty similar to this morning's run.

24.8/6.0 w/ IP-

Color me confused, as the NWS-Philly updated the warnings including now having 6-10" for most of CNJ, but then just came out with the map below showing basically 9-11" for CNJ and it's still in the 8-12" color swath. I'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO. Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.

Which is more accurate. RRFS new nam or the old nam?

1/24 15z SREF mean QPF SNow (mean)

That's heaven on earth. Sit near a big window.

Im eavesdropping on my wifes MDEM call...Sterling, Wakefield and Mt Holly just gave updates...interesting call

We have gone over to mostly sleet in West Knoxville, with snow when it gets hard. I would imagine we will flip to Fr Rain soon.

Look at the snow hole over SW PA

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning.

I mean I have seen already making it to the ground with a 30/13 reading. It shouldn’t be making it to the ground but it is. Doesn’t make me hopeful for drier results.