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You all know that I like the Euro Weeklies control run...the CFSv2 at 6z is also crazy cold like that. The key right now is for the EPO ridge to build and the NAO to retrograde over the top into that EPO ridge. If that happens, there is really nothing to stop the cold from heading south. With deep snowpack over Canada, the skids are greased.

Radar showing strong returns. Have flakes the size of quarters, and even some that are elongated up to 2" under calm conditions. Pretty cool

Nice. I ended up with 2.25". Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block

I'm always ready

Thank you, we all have the commonality of having a fascination with the weather and most of us have varied experience levels. Conversations always seem to be educationally beneficial even if we miss a system

One thing I am noticing on several deterministic runs and on some ensembles(wonky GEFS at 12z)...there is a strong signal for an Arctic discharge just after the 10th. The AIFS Euro definitely shows this. IF that EPO ridge goes up, and I think it does, we could see very cold air sent into the Lower 48. Some modeling sets the EPO ridge too far to the the West, but I bet we do ok w/ that look.

You better get ready for spring in your area.

Tomorrow night looks pretty interesting. Snow showers and squalls as everyone is heading to/leaving parties. Hopefully it’s not too chaotic. I will be out doing DoorDash and being extra vigilant of idiots on the road.

If this verifies, it would be a good day to apply science to my golf swing!

I definitely know your avatar and Cottonwood as a location. Good to have you back and posting again this winter. You do a great job.

Obviously seems like a kick the can situation but beyond the first reshuffle looking good on the AI GEFS

Or normalcy bias considering their track record this year.

Normalcy

yup nice refresher for us

Yes, had to make a new one, been on here a while, mainly lurk but always try to soak up as much knowledge as possible! You are right, the look has precedent, hopefully the look is gone next model run, I dont wish any amount of ice on anyone much less that much.

With deep troughing on the west coast in ten days I don't know how that was ever going to be a great pattern here

Euro looks terrible through January 10. Widespread 60s every day next week and some 70s. GFS also shows the warm temps

I hope you married her! The amount of dumb shit i did for gfs I didnt marry was insane. If i had only known better haha. What a waste!

Great news wind advisory extended to 4pm

Did you have to make a new account? You have been on the forum for a while, right?

Sending an active STJ into an NAO block could get wild during January. It is probably feed back as the GFS is just chocked full of it, but that look has precedent.

Definitely a warm trend between say Jan 4-8. The pattern change to an eastern trough still looks good by Jan8-10th. Modeling could easily be missing a cold front in that range. Still, things look reasonably on track. Dec29-Jan10 looks like a transition time frame where the ridge retrogrades into the West. Jan 10 looks like a new pattern w/ an EPO ridge in the West. It has taken a while for the dust to settle, but that is where I "think" we are heading.

I don't think the run before was right but that's just a guess