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womp womp

Dec 1997 was snowy month in the southern Appalachians. Had thirty inches of snow on the way to a nearly 100 inch season at my location. Will be interesting to see how a similar pattern will play out in a warming climate. .

We have actually had very warm Novembers (1902, 1975, 2015) give nice early snowstorms after the 20th of the month. We've also had cold Novembers produce an inch or less of snow. It's the very beginning of winter so anything can and will happen.

Made it to 72 here today and I am blaming bitcoin and dogecoin. Oh and the market dropping because Al does not make money.

I have to get that weather magnet working for you guys. It needs a couple transistors and vacuum tubes. Yes, that's it.

Down to 61 brrr

Makes you wonder how bad the situation would be if we didn’t get 10-20” of rain in July

Cool afternoon out there but winds are really blowing at times.

Most are 50 ft or less. My entire road has soooo many, just loaded with Beech. Very dense sections. I dont see alot of dead ones from beech leaf disease. Im sure its just a matter of time unfortunately. I have only been here 8 years, so maybe some larger ones succumbed befors that. The majority are in the 15-30ft range.

Exactly, not having snow cover in Churchill/mooseonee this time of year is far far from normal. They have polar bears there .

@grok is this real?

I'm impressed and excited. Look at that potential record breaking heat in the west.

@LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)

As promised, here is a bit of a look into the new insights I am attempting to generate for orographic forecasting this winter. First, here is an initial look at my froude number visualizations for a random hour of a NAM forecast during the light upslope event a few weekends ago. Note the comparison to the BTV calculations, currently there is a bit of a low bias that needs to be sorted out: The full product will look something more like this, where other factors like IVT, wind speed and direction, forecasted precip etc.. are all included: The image shown is late in the evening during the January 1-2 2025 upslope event, just as the flow was beginning to become critical rather than blocked. I tested with this event as by the AM on 1/2, the flow became fully unblocked and I wanted to see if the product captured that correctly. As we all know, upslope can be a fickle forecasting problem, I hope these products can help simplify it! There aren't many places where all of these essential factors in the forecast are all visualized together. Ultimately, I may scale this up into an "upslope index" if all goes well.

IAD had an hour of blowing dust obs this afternoon. I'm just going to blame data centers.

Please AI that Grinch smile on Greta.

After a mild DJ, Cosgrove has a frigid Feb: With the rapid decline of the El Nino and evidence for high-latitude ridging and cross-polar flow, I went in a colder direction for February to the right of the Continental Divide. The southern branch jet stream looks depressed into the Deep South and up off of the Eastern Seaboard, which would seem to favor more cold air and frozen precipitation. While I do not think that we will have a 2009 or 2015 type outcome, I lean toward a colder look than what official and major vendor sources are showing for February.

How Greta stole Christmas?

Growvember and perhaps heading into Dewcember.

We disagree on geographic labels.

We torch

Wonder if anybody stopped and wondered what will happen when the PV strengthens December and January?

Guess we not alone in ORH and TOL

Cold front passing through