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43, no wind, full sun through pristine clean air after 5 weeks of cold drear ... I tell ya what... it's easier and easier to motivate against any winter on any chart.

So what I'm getting out of this is, you're saying there is still a chance.

If you toggle the GFS and Euro at the early hours (36 below) and you can see it even earlier than that they are already differnt with trof orientation due to the wave in SW Canada, that difference early on has downstream effects.

The norlun can be big.

12zEuro has jumped back quite a bit. It has really amped up through Iowa, although it's almost all nw of me.

I'm with @Interstate, I'm charging up all my batteries for this bad boy.

Looks like we’ll have to wait until tomorrow 12z at least to get better consensus. Yet another can-kick. Unless you toss the gfs AND its ensembles, then maybe we’re getting closer to the right idea. Not sure I agree with the trough going neg tilt so fast given how the progressive flow has been.

Thunderstorm chances will increase over the next 30 hours. These storm chances will come in three distinct waves. The first chance is most likely this afternoon over northern West Virginia and southwest PA (this chance has decreased). The second will pass early Friday morning, most likely for Ohio and western PA. The third will come on a cold front late-Friday morning into early afternoon, most likely for western PA. The first wave will be along a surface warm front. This will have a medium probability of ignition and very low probability of impacts. The main uncertainty of ignition is ties to instability generation. Median SB/MU CAPE shows near-zero values, with HREF ensemble max showing up to 200 J/kg possible. In order to ascertain any impacts, instability >100 J/kg is needed which is only 10% likely at this point. Current radar trends reflect low-to-no instability. Prevalent cloud cover will continue to be unfavorable for sustained updrafts. Into tonight, a low level jet is forecast to ride up and through the area, increasing low-level convergence / upper-level divergence. This will provide a high probability of initiation and a low-to-medium probability of impacts. Given the high probability of decoupling, and intense updrafts being mostly shear-driven, and any limit instability being elevated, the main risk with these storms will be hail. This round is represented by the SPC marginal risk outlook. While widespread small hail is most likely, achieving large hail >1" will be reliant on maintaining dry air aloft and mature updrafts. Given limited elevated instability, both of these will be difficult to achieve concurrently. So, there is a higher probability of higher coverages of small hail, but hail >1" cannot be ruled out. The third threat will come on a passing cold front tomorrow. This will bring a low probability of initiation, but a conditional low-to-medium probability of impacts. The cold front will be accompanied by mean 0-3km mean winds of 50kts. The main uncertainty will again be instability. There remains a 25% chance of >100J/kg of CAPE for now, but in the event of clearing, we may top this threshold. Combined with the forcing from the front, this would bring the highest conditional chance of damaging winds should updrafts initiate on the front, primarily tied to fast storm motion and linear mode.

Wrong thread

The RGEM was worse a couple of years ago... the difference with this is... the GFS is not failing

Well, at some point, one model is going to fold like a cheap pants tent.

Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday.

Can't get a freaking noreaster anymore only 1 in the past 2 years possibly 2...

Im someone with high expectations, even winters like 2021-2022 that had a lot of snow didn’t really impress me since there was no staying power. Based on our seasonal snow (so far) relative to normal, temps and snow cover, this winter has impressed me more than any winter we have had since the legendary 14-15 winter.

yeah Glass Joe vs King Hippo

I love that song too. The dice got me in. Euro cave at HH? (sure, it's *probably* not happening, but I'm going to suspend my disbelief)

But I've seen it in line with the gfs when all other models show something different

This could be the worse GFS fail I have ever witnessed. 3 days out and showing a blizzard and on Sunday we'll be dealing with snizzle. smh

The tug of war continues lol.

Long time lurker, first time poster. I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately. GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10. Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table. Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some.

the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.

All this gnashing of teeth for nothing. A reliable source says all systems go .

Its slightly closer to the coast than 6z, but it's unremarkable on the way out. So there's that. 18z GFS should be fun! Or horrible. But this run of the Euro ain't it

Since. 1992. The Great Snow Era. Since 1890 it’s 51.

Euro going to be closer. Going to just miss the phase. Out to 75. Nvm its way ots but has a norlun trough.