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.46'' this morning Up to 11.30'' for the month.

If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year! Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108.

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.

As expected. Highs hovering around 80 in the area. Point fail.

I got under one of those heavy popup cells finally. 0.4" in about 10 minutes.

By far the nicest late July morning I can recall in years. Softball tourney day is usually under blazing sun even at 9am. Was perfection this morning.

It’s worse than what I said. I meant two blocks from DCA. Not even the part of Crystal City with “elevation.” Thought about Falls Church but decided the commute would be too far, so Reston is way too much!

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

18z GFS floods

Man, the silver line extends out to Reston for a reason. You’d get a whole 30 minutes to maybe even an hour of more snow before the flip to rain in our warmer 2016 redux.

Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.

Think I'm moving to a new apartment in the fall. Out of the D.C. urban zone... into the Arlington urban zone literally 2 blocks from Crystal City. Might be a downgrade

Certainly looks like there will be some risk for strong-to-severe storms

Car read 86 in Lemoyne a few minutes ago

Wed is a big severe threat . At least SNE

They’re extremely shook. You love to see it

How is 2015 a poor analog? 2015: 15JUL2015 region 1.2 2.7 region 3 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 1.1 2026: 15JUL2026 region 1.2 3.6 region 3. 2.3 region 3.4. 2.1 region 4. 1.1 1997: 16JUL1997 region 1.2 3.8 region 3. 1.9 region 3.4. 1.4 region 4. 0.4 2026 is even stronger everywhere else, but region 4 is identical. Technically, this is more east-based than 2015 because there is simply more heat back east, and region 4 is the same, but 1997 was def. more east-based. Neither of them are perfect, but I prefer 2015 because in 1997 region 4 wasn't even in El Niño territory....but again, I think it's irrelevant. Region 4 is leveling off, as it was in 2015 at this time if you look at the data...dropped down from 1.1 to .7 by July 29th. I think you are unnecessarily splitting hairs...we can all agree there is too much warmth east for this to act like a Modoki. It's basin-wide that will act like and east-based in the mean bc of all of the warmth back east, but there will be more volatility than a strictly east-based event.

Doesn't really look like a washout to me this week. Looks to be more daytime heating driven scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms. But Tuesday into Wednesday may have a solid line of very heavy rain and thunderstorms moving through at least part of the region.

Only "leaning" AN, so even if right, possibly muted at times.

Yes, very plausible.

100+ for Miles City Montana though next Saturday. It's that 'dry' heat though. Currently 105 with a dp of 42

I think @raindancewxhad the right idea....it will fade to just either side of neutral for winter.

His understanding of climate/weather is poor. He knows day-to-day weather, but cannot put the pieces together in the larger context, much less as it relates to climate. That, IMO, is a big reason that he is not working in the profession he studied. His poor social skills are the other big reason. A quick comparison is in order for illustrative purposes: The Dust Bowl: - Occurred in a cooler climate regime (globally, the 1930s were relatively cool compared to recent decades) - Was a regional phenomenon from drought coupled with bad land use practices that amplified the severity of the drought, drying the soil even more and amplifying the heating June 2026 European Heatwave: - Occurred in a much warmer global climate (June 2026 ranked as the second warmest June on record) - Occurred within the context of rapid warming in Europe (climate change-forced quasi resonant amplification is contributing) - Spain is undergoing aridification - The extreme heat is an outcome one would expect from a rapidly warming climate Confusing or conflating the two events as he does means confusing weather with climate. The Dust Bowl demonstrates how regional weather and land misuse can produce catastrophe, whereas the 2026 European heatwave demonstrates how ordinary atmospheric variability now operates within a warmer climate system that makes exceptional heat more intense, extensive and likely.