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Welcome to thread the needle season (not expecting any snow still)

Since you didn't make location a condition (which frankly just ain't fair for a lot of us younger folks from the Detroit area), I would say GHD 1 in Chicago...

One of those years where the warm is coming it’s going to be 60s and 70’s then the warmth is shooed cut down by the west northwesterly flow beat down. This sets up a normal winter IHO.

Been another great winter around the lakes. December was freezing and snowy. Let’s keep it rolling

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat.

Been through so many storms, but the 91' Halloween Storm was one of the best hits. It started Thurs eve (Halloween eve) around 5 pm in Duluth were I was working construction. I had left the Army that July, and picked up some work doing roofing. Happened to be in Duluth when the snow started around 5 pm as we were knocking off for the day. Snow was light on the way to my girlfriend's place just N of TH, but it got going pretty good that night. That 1st round yielded around 12" as recorded by the TH co-op observer (on the shore) that morning. We may of had a little more at her place. A break in the action with just some light snow Friday morning allowed crews to clean up pretty well. That afternoon, tho, the main storm hit. My good friend (girlfriend's brother-in-law) and I picked up some whiskey before heading to my girl's place. I had came into town to visit him for a while that day. It was a rough ride N of town. Snow had become very heavy not long after dark with blizzard conditions, and by morning we were snowed in with drifts at least waist high in her driveway. They would have been bigger if not for some trees. TH co-op measured 24" (36" stm total), and I personally think there was a bit more out there. It was heavier, wet snow, too. The Lake helped out some I'm sure. Totals like this are common over on the UP, but that is normally lighter, drier snow. Sometimes they get larger totals of wetter stuff. I think weatherbo (wonder what happened to him) recorded nearly 30" of slush (had a glacial blue tint) in a late Spring storm at his place 3 yrs ago or so.

It was always likely the GEFS was gonna be wrong, its been having PAC issues now the last 2 winters. The one area I feel its been better is the NAO. The GEPS caving to the GEFS yesterday was funny though

Eat shit Webb

Only one site and farther north, but here's the season-progressive chronological sequence for our biggest (15"+) snowfalls, 18 of them in 27 winters. (But only 2 in the past 7.) Only 4 have met blizzard conditions here, marked by *. Not including 25-26, snowfall thru Jan 31 has averaged 49.2", Feb 1 forward is 49.3", but 72% of the biggies have come in the 2nd half. 24.0" 12/6-7/2003 * 22.0" 12/16-18/2022 15.5" 12/21-22/2008 * 21.0" 12/29-30/2016 20.0" 1/27-28/2015 * 17.0" 2/5-6/2001 21.0" 2/10-11/2005 (thunder) 21.0" 2/12-13/2017 15.5" 2/14-15/2007 24.5" 2/22-23/2009 19.9" 3/7-9/2018 16.5" 3/13-14/2018 15.5" 3/14-15/2017 * 16.0" 3/22-23/2001 22.0" 3/23-24/2024 19.0" 3/30-31/2001 15.1" 4/1-2/2011 18.5" 4/4-5/2007

30s and 40s for me this week. No torch. Back to cold next weekend.

You need to post better

Yeah once we entered January 2024, the mjo was projected to go into favorable stages and the pattern looked pretty good but it never materialized. However, it seems the models are holding steady with this time with the projected pattern change around January 11th. We'll torch for a bit but a PNA spike and east coast trough would be good news if it actually happens

fortunately with a high end weak to moderate El Nino likely next winter we should finally get out of it

I’d much rather that look vs the +TNH or whatever it’s called that’s done nothing recent when we did have it.

They've ran a lot of those mini games for decades, I saw that even once Drew Carey took over.

That’s a better look vs EPS which is what I was going on.

OMG that brings back memories of being sick and staying home from school. Ginger Ale and pack of saltines on a tray table next to the couch. Yep I just dated myself.

Models have had such a bias for warm in the east in the medium-long range that it's stupid to believe anything they say regarding warmth in the E US until it's within D5 (and even then they can shift i.e. boxing day 2025).

BAM has pretty much cancelled the red flags too.

Yup. Like you’ve always said…our snowfall in deep winter correlates better to QPF than temps (at least inland).

EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.