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End of EPS probably the best PAC look all season.

A nice simple way to get something. Let's see if the general idea survives to Saturday

Almost a banger here just need a bit more south.

GFS moves the main band over South Bend. I'm all in. 12"+ or bust.

Hopefully a few folks fall thru the ice

yeah, the 22-24th is a solid timeframe with established cold air, low heights over SE Canada, and some -NAO/-EPO. can see how you'd get something ejecting out of the west into cold air

No, why would anyone “trust” guidance this far out for anything? But I’m not going to get overly emotional and assume everything will fail because the previous events failed. It’s actually a good sign that we’re getting some hits in the extended on OP runs. GFS likes 1/24 too and so did EPS.

Epicosity continues.

I mean can we even remotely trust anything the GFS says after what just happened? I know the later period did look better than Thursday did…but it was a horrid performance.

Well, as hard as it is to imagine, 2/7 is only two days shy of 4 weeks away. So ya, if everything is the same as it is now in 4 weeks, then it might be a good idea. Although, that’s when you’re into the snowiest month of the season..but whatever.

Pretty close calls on 18z GFS for 1/18 and 1/20. Gonna be some epic pond skating again by the 23rd.

Of course, why wouldn’t you. And just so you know, it ain’t all lollipops and unicorns. But I’m not gonna keep complaining bout something you can’t change. The cold hasn’t been a problem, getting something to run into has here. But whatever.

It'll trend north lol.

For what it’s worth, the Ukie has support from its ensemble and the ensemble gets more and more aggressive with each run. As @BornAgain13pointed out, the AIGFS run improved. Actually, it’s a substantial improvement and looks similar to the Ukie at h5. Good to see the Ukie not on a complete island. Let’s see if 0z can get any others to work that way.

Not really as it means more suppression and a higher electric bill.

I'm going to enjoy the remainder of our thaw. Bound to get colder.

This is the futility thread dude

I’ll fire up the futility watch thread if it is still in sight by 2/7 or so. That’s something to look forward to.

Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb! From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper. Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess. Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay? Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

Or "Possible flurries" 🫤 "Wisdom comes with winters"

yup.. GFS trending closer at 18z and rapidly deepens to 944mb once it passes north of here into Canada. That's going to be big in my opinion

GFS has a bit of snow across the region for the so called Cape storm. Definite improvement in the upper levels though.

he stated this morning…doesn’t look cold, normal to slightly above, or below.

1/29/22 near cape May point, NJ About 14”. Hope HM is on to something. .

Probably should change this thread's title to something like 'interest has shifted to the 18th'