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Nope

In all seriousness, something must have changed this winter, they used to hold back graphics until they are publicly released, now the automated maps seem to be available at any time (presumably based on the NBM). If so, it's not great for these graphics to be potentially shared all over social media before they get any kind of human review.

93-94 it was, had a good snowpack on top too.

I thought HRRR pounded north shore last event? Must have been in the big one, then.

double rainbows (google pic)

Yup....NW to se above our latitude...usually not a recipe for taking the over on snowfall...said that all along, regardless of what guidance implied.

Last storm.

I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

this is not what you want to see

Just stay near shore and avoid the middle.

I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF.

Euro AI way south. This is toast.

The CMC Para last night was pretty wild lmao.

have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon

Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter?

Was just looking at that. Doesn’t seem like a scenario for low level dryness with SSE flow, but we’ll see.

Makes it seem pretty perilous for those dog lovers that pinned heavier hopes to the mesos.

TMI

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance.

Yeah... really sliced the output

Euro AI wayyyyy south

Hoping for a Canadian miracle here.

That's how you know it's toast

RAP also very meh