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More and more I think the rate of change can be as important or moreso than the index value itself. Definitely true with the QBO. Let's look at this WSJ chart for El Nino. Slope is greater than the other events of record. Calculus is back like the monster in the TV! I expect something new this El Nino.. er uh, well more crazy that's already in progress.

Good Idea: Not caring when someone weenies your posts Bad Idea: Lashing out at people when you get a weenie on your post.

Hit 52F this morning with a 49 dew point. It was lovely. Still is. Currently at 72F with a 56 dew.

Sound advice for most any weather forum.

I don't think that matters.....I think you're being a bit too linear. The EURO has it a good handle on this and it has the forcing near 160W, too. Maybe it's wrong, but I don't see any reason to assume that is the case.

46 glorious degrees this morning. This is more like it - and congrats @mappy for doing even a bit better

Canaan Sinks was 36F, dew point prevented it from going down further (ie. Dense fog) there this morning.

Yeah, I think I missing Amos as much as Tunsil at the moment. Pickens and/or Lamb, have to be drooling at the matchup.

These endless summers like this year last well into Nov. Trust me . Keep the shorts on

Crisp! living the dewpoint dream

I don't think I could make it to Thanksgiving but seems like I could go for a while. Probably could get by with shorts and a light long-sleeved shirt.

Bottomed out at a glorious 49F this morning.

A typical year is usually around Tgiving . After that as you move into Dec, is genially no longer shorts time However with the wire to wire warmth this winter, more days than not you should be able to wear them.

home heating oil up 6 percent today.. glad we don't use it but for those that do I'm sure they are hoping for a warm winter..

Curious to see how long I can go wearing shorts. It was chilly outside last evening with shorts and short-sleeve shirt but at least there were no mosquitos!

I’m a little more skeptical of the “back loaded Modoki” idea than I was a month ago given how this keeps evolving. What you’re saying is potentially we see an 82-83 outcome which was exactly that. Only issue is we are east of 82 and even 97 on tao/tritton so it’s difficult to just say go with “basin waters are warmer, so it’s further west” when you also have to account for the actual position of the warmest waters being further east. I think i don’t disagree yet but I need another month to see where OLR’s land vs 82 and 97.

That would be quite the hybrid but let’s turn that into a screamer rather than a boring coastal . I’m all in

My largest lock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

.28" here overnight is better than nothing. Lows in the 40's highs in 60 for the next 7 days... pretty average for mid sept.

anyone got Canaan in WV? Probably upper 20s lol.

low of 57 in upper NW, 58 at DCA - first 50s since June I believe.

Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.

You know what's funny... In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that