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WB 12Z GEFS

I literally have not even got the snow blower out and gassed it up yet. I winterized it last year, put it away and have not touched it. Winters are becoming non existent in my area, except for the cold. /rant

Take the lawn chair out as Paul suggested.

Well even when it wasn’t ugly, it didn’t happen either , so I mean that ugly run could fail too…or not lol.

Floyd popped into my mind with the satellite resolution. Floyd was supposed to bring Armageddon from Florida to Maine. Biggest hype storm ever up to that point. It did real damage to the Carolinas, but it did not end the entire East Coast.

As does the HRRR. As with the Sunday event, jet stream dynamics coming into play, often only gets picked up by short range models. Not saying something will happen on Thursday, but just something to keep an eye on

Nice out today. Can already feel a little sun angle.

Definitely outliers lol - but still worth watching

Lock it in

February before an El Nino the next year

Another month or two, we might be able to get some good drought discussions going.

So you’re writing off the next 9 days, today? I’m surprised.

UKMET says hold my beer.

12z gfs is one of the ugliest op runs I’ve ever seen.

That was already posted Ken…but thanks.

Unlikely we get anything of note. I’ll still hold out a little hope for 1/18-1/19 but we need some good trends on that over the next day or two.

GEFS is a fairly substantial tick for a more substantive system Monday. Waiting for individual members to see if it's steered by a few outliers.

Very good point Mark.

Gonna get a 30 deg diurnal today somewhere.

I am waiting to post something positive.....

So reminiscent of the 80’s BS. Most times it was just that…find every way not to snow. And succeed more often than not. 40 years later here we are again.

The 25th on all models(since overnight) looks pretty ripe. Long gradient w/ multiple high pressures and no slp in the Great Lakes!

How about a couple more months of todays and we call it a winter?

for the weekend: Canadian indeed pushes more chips onto the table. Setting up for disappointment in southeast Tenn. It's like after a blown save (good GFS a few days ago) you get a couple baserunners, but it's two outs so I'm not hopeful.