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Looks like I may have leveled off, running between 15.9 and 16.2 last hour. Currently 16.1/11.8 at 11:45 pm. Also have picked up a bit of cloud cover, at least partly cloudy.

I’ll check now for December. These 9 were solidly -WPO Decembers dominating throughout the entire month: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1961, and 1956. Of these: 1) Cold in the S Plains? 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1961 2) Near normal S Plains? 2010, 1995 3) Mild S Plains? 1980, 1956 So, strong -WPO Decembers leaned somewhat to the cold side in the S Plains, but only 5 of 9 averaged cold. It looks like this year may end up averaging near normal based on a cold 1st half and mild 2nd half. But we’ll see. PNA for these 9 Decembers: 2013: moderate -PNA 2010: strong -PNA 2009: weak +PNA 2005: strong +PNA 1995: moderate +PNA 1989: moderate +PNA 1980: weak -PNA 1961: strong -PNA 1956: weak -PNA So, PNA for these solidly -WPO Decembers is very mixed.

It is cold. First is weather channel. Second is the temp live from my heat pump.

This grinch may be weak sauce compared with other years (and certainly 2020). 00Z op GFS CADs NNE and some areas barely get to 40. Surface winds don't look that bad, either. On the 12Z and 18Z GFS, MVL is showing ~6 hours above 40, BML barely cracks 40. The ECMWF spikes both sites to 50 but not for very long. Compare that to the mega grinch: MVL was above 50˚ for 22 hours, and above 40˚ for 37! BML was 22 and 44 hours! At least that year we got to sit outside in t-shirts and let the winds blow he covid around. (Had there been snowpack, the 2015 grinch would have been worse, with temperatures pushing 70˚ in Vermont; but there was nothing to steal.)

If they win out they win the division.

Yeh guys keep talking about cold…I really see a lot of up and down

The most obvious ones are the most recent: 2016-17 and 2022-23. In case you forgot, here's what happened the last time a dissipating la nina led into an el nino:

14.9 Northwest Cecil County

There is a desire, for us winter folks, to have this time of year be like winter. I don't rule anything out (I am just in awe of what you guys know and share) because half the time I'm using AI to decipher your posts. However, I'll just say it. A white Christmas is always nice.

As unlikely as it is, if the Ravens win out, would they win the tiebreaker over the Steelers?

Yeah, that was a crazy period. Chicago was 69F on 12/28/1984, then a few weeks later it hit -27F on 1/20/1985 during one of the greatest arctic outbreaks in modern history.

During that AH period in 1984, we were cold a few days after it formed, had a light snow event, highs in the 20s and single digit lows. Then the rest of December except for a couple of days, was very warm. We were in the 70s a week after the single digits and back in the 70s a few days after Christmas, with plenty of 60s in between. That continued into early January and the AH finally started breaking down and it flipped cold, then it flipped exceptionally cold.

pretty large urban/rural splits now with no wind. 27F here and rising.

Well, as of Dec 13th, the MJO still hasn’t returned to phase 8! It was in 8 only Dec 3rd-7th. Dec 8th-13th have all been in very weak (essentially neutral) phases 5-7. I still think it has a good chance to get back into 8 very soon, but we’ll see:

that's true - there were easily 4 or 5 games last season that could've gone the other way. But the blow outs this year, just total lack of defense. All the mistakes. Hopefully they can sort it out, because outside of the Caps and the Spirit, DC sports is struggling right now.

I didn't start keeping records until 1979, but 12/89 was awesome here. -10.8 and 17.1 inches of snow with 25 days of snow OTG!

Unfortunately they are notoriously hard to discharge. On average, they persist for 33 days in winter, but can go longer. About 60 percent of the time they lead to a split or displacement of the Polar Vortex, and over 95 percent of the time an early AH saw the PV disturbed later in the season. A paper I read about them noted that there could be a connection to extreme weather after they break down. They used December '84 as an example. One formed on December 3rd, the PV was disturbed on December 30th, and the AH dissolved on January 4th 1985.

Ha, need fewer injuries, new plays teams don’t have on video to study Daniels, a slightly easier schedule, better defense, healthy star qb. Last year was a bit fluke-ish with a lot of luck for some of those wins.

I've been trying to think about what is "going wrong" with such a prolific -WPO to be talking about record warmth down my way. Do you know if a -WPO is typically good for the southern Plains? Is it perhaps atypical to have a -WPO paired with a -PNA or is that typical? I know when I look at the current pattern it seems reasonable to have a west coast trough downstream of that high but maybe sometimes ridging extends further southeast? Mostly just trying to build my understanding for this index.

13 IMBY picked up a dusting earlier from passing snow showers.

I’ve cleared so after being steady at 25.5 for hours I’m down to 24

Actually not the -QBO years with anykind of early strat warming. JAN is the coldest in that analog package. Will not be this year but just saying.

I know, but the result of that catastrophe is tattooed inside my eyelids.

High was only 35 today. Already down to 21. Looks like another possible night in the teens. Amazing for mid December.