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Not going to be shut out technically speaking because most of the interior has snowed already this month.

If we get something, it seems like it will have to be almost an overrunning deal with the cold in Canada nearby.

It's over down here....as someone who spent hours upon hours concluding that March would be fruitful this season, it's abundantly clear where this is headed for SNE...different story up there.

Part of the issue is the earlier DST-once clocks go ahead-people stop thinking about winter sports

Well not sure we’ll be shut ouT, but it’s going to have to occur late month and that makes it harder…..especially in my area.

stones

This makes no sense at all.

After some mild wx melting some of our robust snowpack, more on the way again. A good 1-4" across the N areas today with another decent hit possible Thurs. The system today from the SW looks to hit more to my S & E into tomorrow. Snow train this week.

Yea, we can't buy a decent December or March....at the risk of having the thread discussion gravitate towards "you know that"...

Agree on that....warmth is performing.

Don, it's CLEARLY urban heat island effect. That's why the 10 warmest years at Death Valley (pop: 0) are 2022, 2021, 2025, 2018, 2017, 2024, 2020, 2014, 2012, and 2016. Note the handful of older years are all missing months, mostly in the cold part of the year. It's actually pretty wild that recent years are as warm as those years that have no data for one or more winter months.

Lots of reservoirs out that way already WAY closer to dead pool than ever before

Yet another March with below normal snowfall. At least last week got me a bit above my seasonal average. If the rest of March is a shut out, it’s going to be hard to give this winter more than a B grade here.

For Knoxville tomorrow afternoon. If a discrete cell manages to get established, it’s got some ok numbers to work with. ARW NAM3k FV3 .

We won't even be partly sunny, though! We'll 42 and drizzle while CAPE enjoys his 34 and heavy snow

Prepare yourself. Because if it does indeed snow, Cape will reporting fatties with 3" on the ground and we're partly sunny.

Lol. I only care about up north but Monday now looking pretty cutterish. Hope it can start looking less amped next few days. Up in the ADK this weekend hoping for 3-6" Friday and semi decent skiing.

Thanks for your explanation. Here’s the surface of the relevant 6Z GEFS members as of the end of the snow period for portions of NC: what do they (2, 4, 7, and 14) have in common? lowest SLP both stronger and centered ~150-200 miles off SE coast: And here’s the 6 hour qpf: check out member 14 with its 1.25” swath:

73.2 if math is correct. Think I told @The 4 Seasons72.7 before the half inch of crud last week. March looks to be a dud.

Not asking me ...but "month of threats" overstates that? The rhetoric should really be "month of diminishing returns, but that doesn't mean zero" - that's painting a more realistic and fair picture, when factoring climatology, both standard and definitely CC-fixing. I can coherently sense these increasing limitations in the recent guidance tenors.

The problem with this extreme warmth this early is that it really kills the march ski season. For those who like to ski it’s annoying. But more importantly for these depressed mountain towns it really has an affect on employment very sad end to what was a great ski season. about a month early. they’ll hang on for a few more weeks, but people just stop going.

Bit behind so playing catch-up: +4" (3/3) +1.5" (3/5) 64.3" OTS Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

It’s over

GFS drives 850s below freezing much sooner than anything else. Not much difference synoptically or in surface depiction between it and anything else. Just way too quick with post frontal CAA east of mountains with the passage of the strong arctic front. I could see flakes mix in somewhere in Virginia but this will not be more than that (and mountain snow). Not really worth over analyzing, GFS just defies physics while other models understand cold is delayed by the mountains