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The NW trend will commence soon

Been here since birth in 79. Been chasing 1988 since. Some good years for sure. .

Not sure - I'll attach the link to what they handle. I don't see it specifically mentioned: https://brimmers.com/harrisburg-pike.html

Breezy now with gusts to 25 here more towards NYC

Grew up in the upstate. We had a snow drought from the March 73 storm - 77 record January with no measurable. From 77 on, the late 70’s rocked. Otherwise, you are correct. 80/81, 83/84, 84/85, 85/86 had smaller events but measurable snow. Otherwise, the other years were epic snow years. Really started to decline in regularity after 88 IMO.

Let's call upon the ghost of the famous unforecasted January 2000 storm that was forecast right up till the day of the storm to slide off the coast.....but as the radar hallucinations began to get the weenies yelling - look it's coming straight north - this one actually did. Here in Chester County we ended up with 11" of snow. Could it happen again? Who remembers that one?

Thanks. I'm not saying it's an analogue. NYC isn't going to break its all-time snowfall record Sunday night. Yes the synoptics are broadly similar, but the similarity I want to highlight is that 3 days before that event, it was written off as an OTC solution.

He'll im not even talking about big dogs lol. Snow in general is hard in these parts. Altesst the last 8 to 10 years...

Good observation. For the ECMWF/ECMWF-AI, the operational ECMWF has a horizontal resolution of ~9km. In comparison, the ECMWF-AI is trained on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset which has a resolution of ~31km (its operational product must be run on the same grid specifications). On top of resolution discrepancies, to my understanding, the ECMWF-AI uses its own, statistical relationship (AI and not traditional microphysical/physical schemes) to determine precipitation too. That likely compounds the resolution issue you mentioned, as well. I'm heavily leaning away from AI models for this event (and likely, for all events until it proves its accuracy for sensible weather).

Happy birthday @Mount Joy Snowman! Winds solid all night and today in the mid 30s. Not much sleeping last night. We may never get a WSW storm ever, ever again!

UK is rain.

Thought I'd post this showing a modelled sounding vs an actual sounding from I-Falls this morning. You can find actual soundings here. https://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.shtml

There's a reason the big dogs are a once a decade occurrence.

The UK is at or below freezing for all except LI during Saturday's snow. It looks nice actually. A proper snowy weekend day. Surface temperatures near the City warm slightly above freezing after the precipitation ends.

Start a thread. First Legit Storm Potential of the Season (we mean it this time)

Was just going to put a post up suggesting the same. Looks like some mood flakes possible this weekend, but like you said, hopefully once this new pattern sets in we can score a couple hits. Looks like there will be chances for sure.

I'll have to remember that. Can you get real id there?

Interestingly enough , we mentioned that yesterday … that this would potentially be the bigger deal

I went back to 2012. Had some huge DGEX runs in there. It got really dark here and now near white out. Looks like from Canonsburg east towards Bethel and South Park in a good spot today. At least where I am in Bethel right near border. Looks like more in land not as good.

Exhausting living here

ok- here it is Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary BUT the key ingredient is missing this time around the SE Canadian HP - and there was no lp over Great Lakes Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Surface Maps

The longer it goes on the more it feels like something is broken in a way we aren’t going to get back. A historical average of 4-8 per year and having never had a year on record without at least a trace, to suddenly go almost 3 full years with none. And it would be 4 full years with none if not for a couple inches of wintry mix slop last January.

In a synoptic threat 3-4 days out, it’s going to be extremely tough to defeat the Euro/GFS and their ensembles if they are in close agreement. I’d want to see the 12z euro improve at least…otherwise I’d be more inclined to punt the AIs. However, a 70/30 compromise in favor of the OP models will still produce some accumulating snow in eastern zones, but obviously not a big event.

Just got a surprise heavy snow/sleet storm going on currenty, loud enough I could hear it inside. Currently 21 so maybe I can get some tweezers to collect enough for one tiny snowman Going to enjoy this like it's all I get this season