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I "think" the black line is the observed index. The black line is the same on the Euro. The starting points for the model are the 11th. Prior to that I "think" is observed. It is possible the CPC site corrects that later? I haven't really watched to see if they change it, but I don't think they do.

That would be about .15-.20 inches of qpf here..if it’s fluffy there’s my 2”

I feel ya! I remember when it actually snowed in December, Boston area included. Now for whatever meteorological reason the last several years has been concerning overall. My worry right at this point in time is pretty much close to a patricial shutout of December not the entire winter of course. The reason why I said a partial shutout for Dec. is because we did get a little snow so far, but the rest is looking a little iffy ATT.

The 12z Euro slides a 1052 hp into the Plains late in its run. Wild swing. I will post some graphics when my stuff updates.

From what I understand, the ABM one there is the actual verified MJO plot, and that there's a 3 day lag time for it per Gawx. I believe the GFS there is likely a model estimate.

I was just looking at that This is phenomenal work. Incredible job to all involved in this.

The 12z Euro (it hasn't run on WeatherBell...but has on pIvotal) gets rid of the infinite feedback loop and kicks a strong trough into the East and completely flips the d10-15 pattern. Is it right? No idea. But I feel like I have seen this movie before....like about 2-3 weeks ago.

Reading the last few pages will give anyone a headache jeez!

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

Well, the 12Z Euro beat me to it...LOL. That is quite the correction. Is it done flipping and flopping? I doubt it.

Man that 95-96 archive is sweet to look at. What a year.

We could actually use a little bit of a north adjustment, and it wouldn't really hurt anyone else in the region, just spread the wealth a little further north.

The forecasts are still mostly favorable for it, but they are all starting it a little off where it actually is now by the look of it. Sadly, even with the favorable forecasts we still manage to get warm on models. Not sure if it's a headfake by them or if it's the MPNA from the paper I linked last month, that says 8 isn't cold of the MPNA is negative.

Only a bovine moron would believe a model 2 weeks out lol

Normal ratio for this storm

Until that feedback gets fixed, things are not going to be right. I think we see one of two things happen. Either a trough sets up shop in the West or that trough kicks out and models correct. I just don't know. But I do know this...either the AIFS or GFS is off its rocker.

Yea I just staked it into the ground with large metal stakes. I imagine that will hold. It stayed still on the other wind storms but maybe the west wind direction was different

Is that a different RMM1/RMM2 than CPC uses? I noticed it is ABM generated. I haven't seen the CPC site go into 6, and it is updated to the 11th. Here is the CPC site's for today. It never crosses into 6. If they are different, I wonder which is more accurate. Now, back to model feedback, and the 12z GFS was EXTREME with it today. I figured that if was noticing at 500, the surface had to be crazy. This is a comparison of the AIFS and GFS at 12z. Notice anything? This is how we know that we are dealing with model feedback, OR the ski slopes in the Sierra Nevada are about to get buried(not without precedent BTW).

Here's the sounding from the GFS for his area (roughly), that's actually decent temps for the dendritic growth zone but the winds at height probably argue against really good ratios. Precipitation rates also come into play here as you'd need something heavier (like the NAM shows) to get proper dynamic cooling. Light rates with a surface temperature of just about freezing won't do much. A general rule that would serve people well is that for coastal areas the ratios don't usually exceed the standard 10-1. There any obviously plenty of exceptions but more often than not it's best to ignore ratios for the coastal plain.

EPS QPF 50-75 miles would be big for a lot of the population

If it does like last time, it may even touch five and then crawl through 6. That would probably be a Months worth of crap for us if Blocking doesn't mitigate it.

Posting here instead of the main thread lol. It's frigid. This is man cold right here. It's 12 degrees and with the wind it's pretty rough out there. Of course, sunny with snow showers. 12.2/6

Yep - definitely a hold. EURO itself is an outlier to its outlier members with how snowy it is but nice to have it in the range of outcomes. 12z EPS mean - the median is essentially identical. 12z EPS 90th percentile

It ain’t over yet…I’ll take a couple inches.

EC-AI has a christmas eve day clipper giving a white christmas to all. Fun to look at, at least