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Yep more changes ahead

Winter Poised To Return Next Week As Scheduled Increasing Storm Risk Will Accompany Colder Pattern The Descent & Stretching Of Polar Vortex It was reiterated by Eastern Mass Weather last week that a positive TNH pattern would begin to establish itself around the middle of the month, which is a theme that has been consistently advertised list last fall. It was asserted that this new pattern would stabilize by approximately January 20th, at which point a slew of moderate winters storms would ensue as the PV meanders in the general vicinity of James Bay. This +TNH configuration is clearly materializing by early next week, with a colder resurgence accompanying the establishment of the PV near James Bay, Canada, and the first of probably sequence of winter storms organizing. Although the +TNH pattern is often accompanied by lower heights out west given the tendency for southeast ridging, the expectation from Eastern Mass Weather was that the development of a +PNA configuration would ensue during the month of January in conjunction with this pattern, and that is exactly what is poised ensue. As it turns out, it is the precise evolution of this PNA ridge out west that will have major implications on what exactly materializes on the east coast late next week and into the weekend. West Coast Ridge Crucial To Coast Storm Threats Next Week The current interval of RNA that began near the end of November has been a very prominent and protracted one indeed, having persisted for approximately six weeks. Eastern Mass Weather used history as a guide last fall in positing that the consistently negative PNA values from December would give way to a mean positive PNA in the mean during the month of January. This notion was recently buttressed by data provided by Don Sutherland of Americanwx forums, which indicated that 10/10 -PNA streaks of 35 days or greater during the months of November-December since 1980, have averaged positive over the subsequent 30 day period. Data Courtesy of Don Sutherland While guidance has been slow to adjust to this notion, it has, and there is is evidence that is continuing to do so even as the PNA finally recovers to positive values today. Note that the guidance from just one week ago had the RNA returning as early as the 15th of January, which Eastern Mass Weather correctly identified as incorrect. Sure enough, the most recent data indicates that this transition has now been delayed 4 days to January 19th. This an internal part of the forecast for the +TNH pattern that is becoming established for the latter half of January because the addition of a +PNA in this type of pattern will increase the likelihood of significant, and perhaps even major east coast cyclogenesis, as opposed to the traditional overrunning type of precipitation events that typically rule these sort of regimes. This is due to the fact that southeast heights are often elevated enough to compress the flow when abutting against the colder, lower heights south of the PV over the Northeast, which shears storms. However, this is mitigated largely neutralized by the PNA. This trend for a more protracted period of PNA is likely to continue given that the MJO will be approaching phase 7 at a relatively high amplitude just beyond the 20th of the month. This particular convective forcing regime across the tropical Pacific will constructively interfere with the amplification and maintenance of west coast ridging for the vast majority of the balance of January, despite what guidance currently implies. Note how crucial the position and orientation of said ridge is to the evolution of the potential interval of storminess along the east coast late next week. The first wave of energy on Friday is unlikely to coalesce quickly and proficiently enough to yield a major storm given the location and especially the orientation of the the west coast ridge, as was the often the case last season. However, the western ridge positions itself in a manner that is more favorable for significant northeast US storm impacts by next Friday, as the predecessor ocean storm exits stage right. The region is poised for the first in what is likely to be a series of winter storms with MJO assist next weekend, although precipitation type issues are likely to join the fray with subtle retreat of the PV. More updates to follow this week.

Wow!!

Just do like most of us do...look to the left, see the avatar and just scroll past accordingly

Go to bed happy and enjoy what you saw tonight.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/winter-poised-to-return-next-week-as.html

Agreed!!! The second storm is over 200 hours out. We got plenty of time for that. Need to nail down the first storm before worrying about the next one lol

lol

Fully expecting to wake up to angry @Ji posts that the gfs 6z took away 20" of snow.

Totally opposing solutions GFS and Canadian

To say the obvious, we gotta get through the first storm first. And we’ve got 3 days at minimum til we can feel like we’ve got that one even sorta figured out

Here's a picture of the tech running the GFS tonight (it's either this or Intern Roy).

18z and 00z couldn't be any more different lol

Hyper-local but the lake effect potential in NW Indiana looks real impressive Wednesday and Wednesday night. Michigan City to the IL/IN state line look like the early target.

From 180hrs to 189 the tlvort recovered. But it wasn't enough. 12z Gfs crushed NC only to vanish at 18z. Probably our turn for a rug pulls. Hope not. MaybexHfs is on top something, just overdone.

Welp sure as hell not staying up for the euro for something so far out. See you all in the morning. Best of luck to any weenies that will be up to see a solution that’s probably not going to be the actual solution.

snowman19 only responding in emojis? Why, what happened?

That's one of the craziest evolutions I've seen depicted.

Yeah, I'd take this trade off. Hope the weenies aren't mad that it's going to be totally different by tomorrow this time.

2nd storm over 200 hours away im sure it's gonna change more then a few more times in the next 9 to 10 days lol

No storm #2 this time per gfs

Cape storm doa this run. Thats a fair tradeoff if you ask me.

What a crazy evolution that would be. Volatile weather pattern. Will see rapid run to run changes most likely.

Wave 2 looks sheared out