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Ya this blows .

Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

The radiators definitely leaned colder BOS +2.4 PVD +1.1 PWM +0.6 ORH +0.3 BDR +0.3 CON -0.4 BDL -0.6

Almost noontime and still 56. This is no way to run Summah™.

But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!

I do think we need to remain mindful of the fact that there has been some sort of shift in the North Pacific the past couple of years....the dominant +WPO is over. That was part of the reason 2023, and that several year stretch, was so mild in the NE.

getting your clearing down here finally up to 59! woo hoo

I do.

Not saying I disagree with this outlook, I don't. On the other hand I have always found these maps to be kind of useless in terms of "how much above". They say nothing for the projected departures. .5 degrees or 5 degrees? You really have to go look at EPS for the most part to get the best idea of how much above the period will be. For the sleepy general public looking at this map it screams heave wave. Just my 2 cents. I think they could do better on this product to convey the above normal message.

Yeah. ENSO affects winter the most, with more subtle effects in summer/Fall. I absolutely love Fall, so Im hoping that its a seasonable October. Some strong Nino falls tend to be cool, but if this strong nino isnt acting like one, then who knows?

Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:

Weve always discussed the weather in the ENSO threads. Im really going out on a limb here, but I have a feeling the Cansips not caving from its cold idea is what prompted that suggestion.

It’s been mostly sunny here since 10a. Up to 58°

Am I sold on a torch? No, but it's very possible.

No, I wouldn't. Did you see my May blog?

warmer days ahead

And if I dared to post a torch winter run in this dedicated ENSO thread you would be on me like white on rice

I know everyone already knows this, but TCC and twitter/x handler TheGlobalWarmer are the same person, so in addition to always quoting/replying to his own posts, TCC is now embedding his own TGW tweets. Detroit got a special shout out because I corrected the BS of a normal winter with transient cool shots by posting the actual mean temp maps showing it was a cold winter in the east. This year has been unusual in many areas due to the large diurnal swings. This is why TCC has suddenly abandoned actual avg/mean temps for max temps only. Due to the very warm Mar/Apr, the year is still running above avg to date, despite the fact that Mar/Apr are the only warmer than avg months since October. Detroits avg max temp year to date of 50.2F ranks 19th warmest....but the avg min temp of 31.1F is tied with 6 other years for 59th warmest. Thus, the actual mean temp is 30th warmest to date, tied with 3 other years. It stuck in the craw of the heatmisers that it was an unexpectedly cold winter in the Lakes/east, so theres plenty of excess energy to burn after a warm spring. With the record warmth out west, it was seen as criminal that people in the east were discussing the cold winter where they lived rather than the warm west where they didnt live. And again, no one was acting like this was some record cold winter...it was just a consistently cold, white winter, esp from MI eastward, despite the fact that some tried to paint it as normal. Jan 15-Feb 9th was the 3rd coldest on record at Detroit. Extend that out 4 days to a full month-period (intra month, a stat we have seen posted here many, MANY times wrt warmth), it was the 11th coldest 30-day period on record for Detroit Jan 11-Feb 9th. Quite a transient cool shot! Dec-Jan combined ranked 36th coldest out of 153 years, although the actual avg min temp during this timeframe ranked 26th coldest out of 153 years. The entire winter 2025-26, with a mild 2nd half of Feb, ranked 44th coldest out of 153 years, but the avg min temp for DJF ranked 31st coldest out of 153 years.

June DCA: 0.0 102 NYC: 0.0 98 BOS: 0.0 99 ORD: +2.0 99 ATL: +1.5 99 IAH: +3.0 104 DEN: +2.0 101 PHX: +1.0 119 SEA: +2.0 95

This is a better summary for DLH starting with the beginning of the water year. Rollercoaster temps, and generally dry. Forgot about this section under the climate n past wx page.

Cansips has it turning wet, though that's a seasonal forecast.

Have any of these stupid precip outlooks actually verified when they show above normal precip this year? Has NOAA hired Bastardi for their precip forecasting? I'm still holding to my late June derecho and trend toward wet weather. It's still too early.

Kind of looks like last winter with a STJ added. Interesting.