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That was an awful and scary winter. +15 Dec. First freeze January. Highest snowfall ever in one storm mid Jan…all gone within a week. And a few days here and there of 0 degree weather followed by more extreme warmth. I call 2015-2016 the post apocalyptic winter. Actually unnerving

Big 3 all show something:

Euro seasonal model too strong SE ridge DJF two Winters in a row. Seasonal models seem to have heavy ENSO bias, even when Weak like they are grasping for any forecasting accuracy lol

You cannot have enough snow.

Taken literally I get almost a foot But in reality - if GFS shows this 5 days out, that cutoff probably straddles I80. Plenty of time to get a swing the other way first.

Blasphemy. KMA is your model North Haven - 17.3 Bethany - 15.6

Where was this at the end of January

Analyzed lowest pressure was 966MB. Analyzed track was about 60 miles south of the BM. Full warm warm seclusion.

We should plot the grades on a map at the end of winter

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it. I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

GFS makes the most sense - the Euro's don't .....

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

Maybe a little slant sticked but not by much. Plenty of 36-37” reports in that area.

Solid A on a curve Snowy and cold, barely any r*** Good skiing and great skating Deep, deep pack Well AN snowfall already with more than a month to go

Yeah it did.

Some frozen on EURO

12z GEFS very warm March 7-11. DCA could make a run at 70s.

I'm not usually a pack retention kind of guy, but it's been impressive this season. I've had 6 days since 12/3 with a T or less on the ground. And I've been over 10 inches on the ground since 1/26. Chuck in a normal March snowfall and I'll be at the best snow season since 2018-2019.

I'm def more excited about this one than Sunday's storm. But for obvious reasons. What did the clown maps have?

10"

Some potential next Sunday-Monday timeframe. But keep the discussion in here. NO NEW THREADS

I had to have got it from here:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx but like I said earlier, its gone now. You can still see snow for Port Jervis and West Point though if interested.

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral.

Gfs is more of a Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Still a week out I’m sure in a couple days if it’s real we’ll see the timeframe… the way this years been wouldn’t be surprised to see it end up back on a Sunday Monday. Seems like most of our snow has been lol

It took 18" of snow/sleet together to keep a solid snow cover for a full week after 3/13/1993. If it wasn't for all of that sleet it would have been gone in 2-3 days.