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Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change? Again? A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass? Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

Had a nice little burst in the West Loop to whiten the grassy areas.

So does this mean Wolfie is not gonna see this entire thread because he has you blocked?

6z or 12z?

With the possible exception to the GFS (esp 12z), the solutions depicted are primarily deformation precipitation with little or no overrunning frozen precipitation. This makes it more difficult to get a high QPF event. This partly explains the low snow means on the ensembles and AIs. It's only when the solution is extreme (12z GFS) that the big QPF appears.

A mix of rain ,sleet, and snow in Rainthuen...

Quite a few catpaws and some sleet. Little slush on the pavement. Took the dog behind the house today, about 90% snow covered still and found a tick. Things would survive a nuclear winter.

18z Euro lol. I can't recall that type of evolution, though I'm not super studied on the specific historic analogs etc.

Here we need to be on the Northern side of a big amount of snow early, with tons of room for movement. If we are too close to the cutoffs, we can easily get missed to the north. We do not have much cushion on this one.. that vort has to dig.. We need a big dig.. BIG.. and just far enough west to turn right. If we complicate this any (as we are now) we will need to bet on fail...

Euro still wants to open that 516 up too quickly. Each run though keeps it closed later and later.

Smashed his throwing hand early in the game too. No way he was 100%. Puka didnt do too bad either. They are a balanced squad.

The ULL in interior Quebec is more of an impediment to trof amplification than the shortwave near North Dakota IMO.

Tomorrow is too early for being definitive imho. Monday at least.

Reminds me a lot of last year late year when there'd always be a 3-5" system on the 10 day and then it'd never materialize. Seems to be happening a lot this month. Here's to hoping for a snowy end of Jan and all of Feb. Once March rolls around, I'm ready to get back outside.

It definitely looked in forecasts from early this week that today would be a taste of spring, but that idea disappeared by midweek.

that 18z gfs op was wintry vibes. it's been a solid winter tbh lol

Looks like more will be circulating through.

In non weather news Bob Weir of the Grateful Dead just passed away. I was not a Deadhead but did get the chance to see them a couple of times with some friends in the early 80's. I thought they were great when I did see them and I always loved Bobs vocals. Another legend gone, I can't even keep track anymore but at least the music lives on.

Hell of a game. Stafford so clutch. MVP.

Lol, they updated it with No update. Their forecast discussion says updated 723 pm, but it must have been just a short term update. No mention in the discussion or grids of Thursday or Friday storm chances. It’s going to be a shock to some of the general population if the GFS or Euro were to verify.

In fairness it's harder to snow there than it is here, also they did soar into the 70s while our warmup was muted.

If by this time tomorrow the Euro is still moving towards GFS how on board would you be?

That's because the 15th/16th goes of the NC coast and pushed OTS. They will receive snow.

But there is some movement toward it vs away, which makes it a little harder to disregard the Gfs completely imho.

A few miles from there