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I started in September 2006....so going on 20 years for me. I know Will and Jerry have been kicking around a couple of years longer.

I'd be careful just using a daily SOI value to assess. Not saying it isn't tanking (haven't looked lately) but those daily values can be heavily influenced by local weather phenomena and weather systems.

maybe both of them together can find a nut?

(Southern oscillation index?)…And what is the significance of that actually on the pattern? If any?

Frost and low of 25

We don’t know how to CAD any more. That’s my biggest gripe. Idgaf what anyone says about the pacific, storm track yada yada yada. The biggest thorn in our side these past few years comes down to the fact that a high pressure greater than 1032 doesn’t exist any more. If it does, it’s moving at break neck speed into the Atlantic. Yall are going to hear a lot of complaining from me today, sorry lol. Just getting it out here instead of the main thread.

I technically live in New England. However my climate is much closer to central park than Boston.

Do you know any resources I could use to see and possibly anticipate how much down sloping to expect (besides annoying my resident professor on microclimates which I plan to do)?

Euro OP has been horrendous lately it seems, let's hope GFS has a clue..

I went 19-29" for you guys, so kind of the middle of those years.

This “event” tomorrow is among the most frustrating just because it’s in the low 20s less than 24 hours before the precip moves in and we rain?

SOI value this morning. -43.70 Tanking

SOI value this morning. -43.70 Tanking

Mighty frosty on my morning walk. Im calling it a trace

-7 at the house. Got a -14 on the car thermometer at the local low spot. Winter is here, glad it matches the time of year I’m most excited for it

the HRRR isn't the 6z debacle

Not too familiar with cville microclimate but I'd worry about downsloping since the flow is basically east to west. Perhaps 1-1.5" is a safe bet for you. Just basing this on the HRRR and ignoring the NAM, which is about to get retired.

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 750 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ053>055-501- 502-505-506-526-527-041900- District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 750 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE/ WASHINGTON METRO AREAS FRIDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Friday morning commute. A period of light snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 to 50 percent chance) Friday morning across the Baltimore/Washington DC metro areas with up to an inch of snow possible accumulation on untreated roadways. If this threat does materialize during the Friday morning rush hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Friday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. In addition, light snow or freezing drizzle accumulations may also impact the evening commute as the storm system is slow to depart late Friday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. $$ EST/DHOF

We cant catch a break

What would you expect for Charlottesville? I'm thinking that at least an inch is a safe bet with a max of 3 (1.5-2 is my target). Only worry is down sloping or a further slip south (though with the H5 that would be quite a change to skunk me) but generally I think I'm pretty locked in for a pretty Friday morning on Grounds.

An arctic front moves through later today with maybe a couple snow flurries. We turn windy and cold behind the front with highs today in the mid-30's and lows tonight will be near records levels for some stations with shorter periods of record with lows by tomorrow morning in the mid-teens. We remain in the upper 20's for highs tomorrow with a chance especially across Southern Chester County for some light snow or flurries during the afternoon. While still well below normal we do warm back up to the upper 30's for the weekend before the coldest weather of the season arrives on Monday. No significant storms over the next week.

Got down to -8º here, with some -teens across northern Iowa. Models are amping up the weekend clipper. The latest Euro is fairly robust.

An arctic front moves through later today with maybe a couple snow flurries. We turn windy and cold behind the front with highs today in the mid-30's and lows tonight will be near records levels for some stations with shorter periods of record with lows by tomorrow morning in the mid-teens. We remain in the upper 20's for highs tomorrow with a chance especially across Southern Chester County for some light snow or flurries during the afternoon. While still well below normal we do warm back up to the upper 30's for the weekend before the coldest weather of the season arrives on Monday. No significant storms over the next week.