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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, like you said....we need to give it through October.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be in the seasonal mean, but we need to time one during the negative intervals...there should be some.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    So far it hasn't I agree that the cold season will be super interesting to see if it happens or not. Like I said models showing -200dm for a monthly mean, are they that bad? lol
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, if you have seen the EURO and CANSIPS snowfall output, this appears to be what these models do.
  6. KakashiHatake2000
    SPC has day 4 yellow highlighted 15% risk out for portions of East Tennessee https://vxtwitter.com/iembot_mrx/status/2095070809425371576?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Usually that storm track happens in +NAO raindancewx still has to tell me how he gets U of Del precip working on that map lol
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, but the question you need to ask yourself..."is it already out of the picture completely"...because if the answer is no, then it will show up this season.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Next year should make up for it with a Nina, assuming the mdr warms back up. But yeah this season was dead on arrival. .
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not actually taking for granted that the El Nino will actually do anything to the N. Pacific pattern. Models have -120 to 200dm on monthly means... they usually don't bust that bad... but we are in a "time" where the N. Pacific low is trending more and more out of the picture completely. Just the way it's going.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I wonder if a neutralish PDO with an El Niño of this magnitude doesn't shift the STJ inward and upward relative to climo for intense El Niño.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think the SE, US will be below average temps like a lot of historical analogs suggest
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the El Nino developed in April, it's been a clear mid-latitude ridging pattern under 90N +AO. That's been the dominant pattern - not anything coming from the Tropics I'm going to repeat this post, the pattern has been following itself closely, not anything in the historical analog dataset. Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months: 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
  17. Stormlover74
    1 of 2 derechos that day. The 2nd one hit our area
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    July 22, 2011 had high end heat. A lot of records that day, including EWR's all-time high of 108.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.
  20. Chinook
    several tornado warnings in NY/PA today
  21. WxWatcher007
    While we’re setting the O/U on audible thunder at 0.5
  22. NorthShoreWx
    Labor Day 1998 https://www.cnyhistory.org/2014/09/labor-day-storm-1998/
  23. Today
  24. WxWatcher007
    I think Wx Twitter is going in circles because this will be the last Atlantic TC we see in a while.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know Wall, so I'll take your word for it. I think most on this board would agree that my only agenda is getting the forecast correct, and placing much stock into a model with such a poor initialization of the Pacific basin, both ENSO and extra tropical, gives me significant pause before seriously considering it's output. This isn't about CC, or how well the model did last year....it's about the fact that it has such an obviously poor read on the Pacific.
  26. WxWatcher007
    Don’t look at western NY
  27. CoastalWx
    It’s funny how bad we are at convection.
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