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i would call 8 a huge win.

It’s a good attempt at a map but the 4-6” zone stretching from DC into PA is a complete joke.

Yeah like a week ago. Let’s hope it locks in on DuPage county next. .

Can you expand on this? Your insight is unlike any other!

21z SREFs are filthy.

Trend still looking better?

Looks about the same despite lows closer to coast. Interesting. Kinda goes to the other poster’s point that none of the shifts really seem to be making significant changes happen at the surface.

Any reputable Met is forecasting rain or mix to start in far southern NJ. Temps will fall as real precip moves in, turning it all to snow. Stop with nonsense talk of this.

There is one

Is Jim Cantore out there with his

lol, I haven’t even invested a nano second in the last few days looking beyond this storm.

Solid map, I’m mostly in agreement. The hoco death band will not be happening with this one.

The NBM ratios are likely too high as it usually runs on the higher side.

I believe Greenfield had 22 inches in the February 2013 storm. Easily the biggest storm since I moved here in 2007.

Im once again tempting fate and driving home tmrw. Last storm coming home from AC it took about 5 1/2. This time im coming from maryland. Should be much easier this time. I hope.

Following a day when springlike warmth brought about a torrent of melting and hint that the worst of winter is now in the past, a major blizzard is poised to engulf the region in a blinding, swirling wall of white. Last Tuesday, the AIFS signaled a possible major storm. Afterward, when all the other guidance retreated, the GFS kept the torch burning. Now, the region is set to experience its most severe blizzard in perhaps a decade. A rapidly developing storm will bring heavy snow and high winds to the region later tomorrow into Monday. Any early snow or mixed precipitation during the morning will be light and inconsequential. At present, a 16"-22" snowfall appears likely in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Somewhat lesser amounts are likely north and west of New York City. A 18"-24" snowfall is likely across central New Jersey and part of Long Island. Blizzard conditions are likely at the height of the storm late Sunday night into Monday morning across much of the region. Winds will likely gust near 60 mph creating extremely low visibilities and large drifts. Final estimates: Allentown: 8"-12" Atlantic City: 8"-16" Baltimore: 4"-8" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 18"-24" Bridgeport: 14"-20" Harrisburg: 4"-8" Hartford: 8"-12" Islip: 18"-24" New York City: 16"-22" Newark: 16"-22" Philadelphia: 12"-18" Providence: 18"-24" Scranton: 3"-6" Washington, DC: 3"-6" Wilmington: 12"-18" As a result, Winter 2025-2026 will become just the 10th winter with two 10" or above snowstorms in New York City. The others are 1895-1996, 1925-1926, 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1995-1996, 2003-2004, 2009-2010 (3 such storms), 2010-2011, and 2013-2014. Even more impressive, Winter 2025-2026 will be on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 30.0" or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +3.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.601 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.7° (4.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

I think that data will be for the 00z models.

Remember to measure it about 20' from one's house so roof snow won't count in the total amount/accumulation. Check the snow depth on the ground before the storm starts. Just subtract that amount from whatever storm total one gets as a final. It should be fairly accurate to the best of one's ability.

This is definitely something I’ve been watching for our big total hopes. You need to rain on a decent portion of the eastern shore for at least part of the storm.

Adam's gets crazy even without an impending storm, I can't imagine trying to fight the crowds tonight or tomorrow morning

Be dirty. Embrace it.

@EastonSN+

40" was common in eastern MA and RI, just did not have the degree of spotter/co-op observers back them. A fairly reliable measurement from someone I know got about 44" total in an open field in Woburn MA. Given the how the area between 128-495 NW of BOS tends to have a local precip max in many nor'easters, this is not unreasonable.

So true! My neighbor was talking to me about the storm today and I told him we've been watching it for a week. Then I dropped Friday to him.

So My brother flew to king of Prussia(Philly) for a pa school conference. It’s supposed to be tomorrow all day and leave Monday. I hate trying to make a call for him because he’s asking if he should just hop a morning flight back tomorrow but I feel like at this point. He won’t get out of these until Wednesday otherwise.