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Damn it hoped to keep the sleet clear from me still concerns me we would be missing out on some decent precip

looks like the sleet lined is pinned to the coast for longer during the duration of the event, before eventually creeping north

1/24 00z NAM total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1)

you beat me to it. I was going to post the trend over the last few days of the NAM. Honestly, this run is pretty in line with all the other ones -- maybe even a little better.

It looked like it would be brief though.

Weathermen gonna take one on the chin here.

he's a and wants 24 inches cause we were all kinda expecting at least 14 or so with this!

Click the link. It says that remote and telework employees are expected to work and that non-telework employees will be given the hours they were supposed to work. That said, it is surprising given the current status of the federal workforce. NAMs suck.

The 50/50 tpv shifted more and more NE as we get closer through the week .

We would all take that right now. No doubt.

Yep and make it all the more sad when it turns to pelting sleet. Hopefully it's wrong. Might not even make it to a warning event south of I-80/city and coast with that outcome.

Close to 18z. Sleet to me and Kev.

WNC doesn’t have the fragile pines that are in ENC, so they have that going for them. Also, any places with altitude will either be sleet or rain. It’s tough to get prolonged freezing rain there. The escarpment will have freezing rain, but without the pines to collapse everywhere, it hopefully will not be so bad.

Yep, lol And it's unfortunate because that scenario would be impossible to predict. Like a model bust like that would just be one of those things

Does that dry slot extend into upstate S.C.?

that's a really true i remember we had a big storm it snowed a decent amount but than it changed to sleet and man that snow stayed even in the city for like the longest it wasn't a long time ago and I do remember it was late in the season in March. So maybe some sleet is good here before hopefully we get clobbered next week and our snowpack stays well into march lol

And it didn’t follow…still torches the mid levels. 6-10” for the area then sleet. Just 20-25 miles more south with that line and we’re back though. This isn’t over by any means.

Primary is just too amped. Nam would be a downer for sure, given expectations, but it definitely does some wonky things from frame to frame. I dont know, but if it scores a victory here......damn.

The surface didn’t warm as much as the HRRR. Stays around 25 in DC and the freezing line is east of the Bay.

Not a model guy, but not seeing that. Showed a shade of blue over my house for about 10 hours same as last run.

Because Upton is going with 10-14 inches with some mixing and the latest guidance has trended warmer. That’s all I’m saying.

Quite possible

It made zero sense but I just let it go...

At 39hrs, the 12k has a 1007 slp in central Mississippi, yet it just punch the sleet line thru mby like a hot knife thru butter some 1000+ miles away. Pretty crummy long wave pattern that we can't keep this storm from turning nasty.