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Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to to . Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

Steady rain for the parade in Plymouth today. I'm in Sandwich and have had a good amount.

Looks like 10/10 in 2011 is currently the earliest.

A little after 1030am and we sun

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

This why I don’t look at that thread. Can’t cancel it if there was a chance for big snow that disappeared if I never knew it existed to begin with.

Interesting., It’s been a nice cool fall overall.

consensus is we aren't having much of a winter here this year, so there, i'm glad the experts got it off their chests.....and actually haven't seen much of one since 2021, which was pretty snowy, and seems ignored around here. i guess there were other things in the news....the local reservoir is down to a trickle, though it is not used for drinking anymore and is scheduled for dredging and redevelopment. that would be the clark reservoir, subject of much controversy these days.

.2” rain for me overnight

We lived about 25 miles northeast from Long Valley. My maternal grandparents had a house in LV (primary home was Glen Ridge) and we would make frequent visits to mow the 3/4-acre lawn (1950s-60s), usually finding 2-3 yellowjacket nests per mowing. Occasionally we'd stop for a feast at Larison's Turkey Farm, long since closed.

.25" here.

.26 meh

I mean Christmas 2015 was in the 70s and we all know what happened a month later.

After Dec 2 the pattern has a 2013 look to it if it comes to fruition

even russia is not as cold as it was 30 years ago.

To your point...DEC, 2010. First half of DEC was in low-amp MJO phases 3,4,5,6 (blue line is DEC): Here are the 2m Temps for DEC 1-20: Certainly other factors can override MJO.

We too quickly buy as gospel LR guidance, which in my experience seems to be at its worst in the winter months. Best to take warmth or cold with a grain of salt.

The teleconnection idea (predominant state during the periods) is based on the GEFS and EPS, including the weekly EPS ideas. That's why I noted that the probability for Scenario 3 has increased somewhat, as some of the guidance now moves toward a more robust AO+. The consensus remains a persistent PNA- (closer to neutral but not positive). Here's the latest GEFS forecast going into December (preponderance of ensemble members show a PNA<0):

And going beyond the lack of skill in MJO forecasts beyond 10 days, other factors can overwhelm it. Sometimes even high amplitude passages through Phase 8 during passage through Phases 7-2 don't generate a wintry response in North America. December 1-12, 1990 is one example. March 1-25, 2023 is another example, even as it was an off-the-scales passage through Phase 8.

100%. I dont have them, just crushed rock around the base for drainage for roof runoff. If your house has perfect insulation, than it should not be an issue with gutters, but most houses are older around here and that's not the case. Definitely have seen gutters hanging on by a thread mid/late winter after ice dams take them down.

Great post! CFS: AO

Great way to start off the lift serve season at Stowe yesterday! Upper Starr into untouched woods first run of season! Glorious! .

Not to be a weenie but what makes you think it’s “very unlikely” the pna flips positive for a period in december?

Dump west...bleed east