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Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless. Eric Webb had this to say:

I agree with you here, rad cooling is fake cold. Especially when today is going to be like +15 or whatever for the high

No personal feel on whether this has any portending value for later in the winter. Not sure I see how- but that's no refutation! I can come up study-able explanation for why a 10hPa warm bloob ( the official term! ) is taking place, now, that doesn't require any specific special meaning thereafter. For one, I've been following this for years ...I've noticed lag correlation. First, the Swiss Alps and Urals/ cordillera running N-S between along the Eurasian geographic region, could be instrumental ... about 10 days prior to these warm nodes popping into existence in those higher stratospheric levels. The 10 hPa being one in the 1 thru 30. It seems there is a lag correlation, a week to perhaps 10 days after active N-NE cyclone modes. The idea is, these modes inject/enhance warm advection events downs stream across mid and N Europe, prior to the 10 hPa emergence. The conjecture ( less than hypothesis at this time...) is that the geographical barrier the Eurasian cordillera imposes, assists in lifting the warm air - think 'giving it a boost'. Around the globe over here, over western N/A...we have a similar, though not as abrupt geographic barrier wrt the Rockies orientation ... impinging Pacific flow as it encroaches from the west. As this air 'back logs' due to fluid pressure it begins to deflect up... in the same way, just not as dramatically... Coriolis force additionally factors and turns toward the N... That is the reason the base-line mean flow over N/ features the flat ridge in the W with a gentle nadir coming E of ~ 110 W across the continent. ( as an aside, this is the base-line PNAP, Perennial North American Pattern). It's a useful knowledge nugget, because not ever +PNAP is really a +PNA. Nor is a -PNAP part of a long termed -PNA.. it's like any teleconnectors ..they don't always move together. Anyway, so the Urals and so forth are a younger taller mountain range. Height being the crucial difference. The active storm mode of the N-NE Atlantic sends warm advection/storminess through the central and N Europe. These encounter get deflected N and up over the Eurasian cordillera very proficiently, ... eventually penetrating the "side wall" of the PV. It may take a week to 10 days to do so... If there is a warm anomaly S of the 60 N definition... it may en masse rotated around the hemisphere a couple of time before all this happens. I have enough to at least correlate and subsequently formulate a hypothesis that connects the N-NE Atlantic storm mode with a lag to the mid stratosphere vortex presentations but ... I'm stuck in a day job like everyone else.

So, it looks average, which is fine. Where is this from?

The comparison of the following GEFS AO progs fits in well with its strong -AO bias the last couple of months: 10/28/26 GEFS run: look at all of the members plunging to sub -1 and even sub -2 during Nov 2-4 with the mean plunging to -1.5 on Nov 3rd: 10/29/26 GEFS run: what happened to the Nov 2-4 members going below -1? There’s only one left and the mean dips down only to -0.6 instead of -1.5 on Nov 3rd. Also, the medium range mean isn’t as -AO as yesterday: @Typhoon Tip

One thing I noticed that I haven't seen in years up here. The last time I seen so many lady bugs trying to get in was the 90s. It was usually stink bugs but this year it's lady bugs. Some of those 90s winters were nice in the snowfall department here.

Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus doesn’t lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus leads to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.

miss north on the micro spud

Amen brother! I'll add, I lived in many states and I agree with the shout outs for Michigan.... western and northern areas of the state are gorgeous. The only areas I have no desire to be back in are the i-95 cities and the northeast in general, (south of Boston), and the mid atlantic. yuck

Yeah I'd be shocked if we see anything else form at this point. Isaias was basically our Joaquin of the season too. Very interesting season regardless all things considered. Tons of records broken in the opposite direction for once

It’s amazing how some of these people get so angry and upset about fake cold. Never ceases to amaze the tantrums and anger it generates. A real phenomenon

He does fake heat well so I'd say yes.

Them and the 2014 Royals (UGH) were two of the greatest bullpens I've ever seen in the playoffs. Pure domination from start to finish. A strong bullpen is such a weapon in today's MLB. I'm happy the Brewers won! I also think Tampa needs to relocate to a better city. That place doesn't care one bit about them.

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring... I also am just commenting that perhaps delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial. Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon. That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that. If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously. If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. The gist: What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon. It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place. Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

SOI has been + for 5 straight days now I saw

"Is this why weekly climate models are now showing cold wintry Dec across the eastern US"? They are??

Rain whiffed around this area earlier this morning. Plenty more rain chances over the next week though.

Been seeing this a lot in the last decade ...but since 2023, even more, where these "missing man formation" curve peal-aways take place. This tropical curve is exceptionally deviated from the perceived canonical/historic behavior at this point... It seems it should almost have to turn and start going down but the damage is already done. Not sure if this apart/aspect of El Nino, per se; other "super" Nino years are presented but did not to demo this type of aberrant tropical separation from the pact. Interesting

Will Atlanta see a frost before you?

.42 here overnight with some decent lightning and thunder. Cooler today but still above normal. Highs in the low to mid 50's for at least the next week.

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