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Still snowing lightly in Telford. 1.75"

This is what I was talking about earlier on a lot of these runs this evening. That heavier stuff is slamming the DGZ pretty hard…this is the latest hrrr but NAM has been showing it pretty consistently for several hours….so there could be some pretty efficient QPF to accumulation ratios if that pans out (and as a rule, you can lower that DGZ a little for us in SNE since we tend to have a lot of salt nuclei in the clouds here versus much of the country further away from the ocean)

Latest HRRR looks pretty good for round 2 tonight

Disappointing how this unfolded for all of us, that's for sure. Looking at the pattern ahead its easy to feel optimistic. We have found every way possible to miss in the past 4 years though, so it's hard to get too excited. Anyways glad I can post my thoughts here without a bunch of crazy. This is a good group of people!

Have about 1-1.5" on north shore Queens, tapering down now. CPK was around 32 for most of the time, so maybe they picked up an inch

Light snow continues in Marysville. Beautiful wintry morning! One of my favorite things in Winter when the opportunity arises is shoveling snow while tracking the next chance. This is happening in my next hour today.

Looks like locations along the shore remained quite warm with round 1. Some of those mesos yesterday showing rain for round 1 weren't off. I'm glad NWS hasn't triggered a winter storm warning for anywhere. HRRR isn't most accurate with this one IMO, it showed there barely being a lull at all, but we'll likely lull until 4 pm or so and then we get into the heavier stuff. Luckily, the sun will be down by then, so it'll be easier to accumulate as long as its colder.

Any reports from Central Park?

33.2 id say we got about 0.25 inches of snow so far today.

14z run def looks healthier. Hopefully it’s catching a real trend.

Running a couple errands, but mod snow and untreated surfaces being covered quickly.

14z HRRR coming west again hopefully the east trends are done

Feb 2023 was bare ground. But we had snow pack for Jan 2019, late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018, and Feb 2016. Any other arctic outbreaks since 2016 that I didn’t list were prob pretty meh so they don’t stick out to me. But that Feb ‘23 outbreak was so impressive considering it was bare ground and yet it fell in prestigious company for all time lows at some of the major SNE sites.

I usually go to Stew Leonards and then Uncle Giuseppes when i go to Long island.

Wednesday/Thursday clipper uptrend. Or do we not care cuz it's not a big dog?

Steady light snow. Even the lull is over performing. 31F

Snow stopping here. Just a dusting. Temp is 34

pics from this morning.

36.5 pure rain.

It’s pretty heavy snow. Putting 2” in the books. So pretty out with the trees cached in snow. Monday and Tuesday will be windy. And very cold.

If Philly, Baltimore, and DC don't get a major snowstorm in the next week, a new low 10-year rolling snowfall record will be set in those places. The 2016 snowstorm officially goes off the books on Saturday.

I went Xmas Eve morning to get trays for dinner. Wasn’t a bad experience. In and out

Hopefully for round 2 it’s colder

As I mentioned yesterday it's frustrating how condescending and arrogant he can be, but he knows his stuff. He's also from Parkton (near Fayetteville, NC) so he had a whole childhood to ponder SE snow fails. That said I think it speaks well of NC weather weenies in general in that many of us, including many of us on this forum, knew that this was very unlikely to pan out and reacted accordingly. This is actually a very interesting case of NWP failure. We rightly disparage the GFS, but in this case I'd say it had the overall idea more correct that the Euro on average. Yeah the GFS bounced around like a drunk person playing Mariocart but the rock-solid Euro was rock solid wrong in the sense that it was showing no snow because it never brought the precip back NW until the very end. And when it did, it showed the same phantom snow that the GFS did. The NAM suite was so lost and will probably insist I got snow six hours after the storm is past. Oddly, the usually snow-happy CMC was probably the miost consistently correct at range in that it long showed a warm NW track. I would love to have a long convo with a NWP expert to try and understand why the models always overestimate the speed of cold fronts in general, and always fail to resolve the Apps specifically.

It’s 33-it’ll be tough to do much with lighter rates.