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Upton had balls last winter. Maybe they misplaced them when El Nino came. They should find them again because I have faith the 18z GFS is going to cause them to hoist Gale Watches.

What blows my mind is how nws weather offices don't really seem to like to work either each other sometimes? Example, 430 pm Boston wind probability image shows eastern Long Island at 60%or better chance setting 40 or higher gusts. And places east. But Upton says likely stay below even advisory level...

Other than some rain and little wind, not a big storm. Pretty predestination, yall need to chill out

So many people generally don't like to see or know somebody else is having fun. Misery loves company.

Locking into final scenario

same thing every noreaster-GFS flat out to sea then comes on board at the end

ICON looks similar to 12z...hooks into MTP and rides the S LI coast. Pretty good rain event up here.

If the gfs comes west, Upton will need to change a lot of things but watch everything shift east then near the end. It never ends

This is going to be a FUN winter.

Blue skies and breezy. Feels like fall for sure.

We'll see if the 18z GFS bows to the EURO

Icon is a soaker

Agree and very excited for it. I am soooooo sick of drenching humidity when working outside. This has been the worst summer for that in my life. Last summer the first half was just brutal but things switched up by August and the second half was very reasonable. This year was door to door unrelenting down here. I'll have to check anom maps but my area has to be +5 or something like that. We had a ton of lows in the low 70s and thats not normal. Usually we get into the 60s even when it's 90-95. The relentless humidity made tough to get pleasant nights after a 90+ day. It seems like this current storm sets things in motion in the upper levels to get some amplified deep continental cold fronts with blocking above to lock HP to the north down. And it could have some staying power where strings of AN days are brief and beautiful fall weather dominates overall. Time will tell but I feel pretty optimistic that's where we're heading.

So expect anything from nothing to a major impact. Got it.

Went down the rabbit hole and found December 1989 and December 2015. Holy crap.

Ukie looks close to 12z. We retro.

Icon looks about same maybe a little west Rgem looks better even. Nams are west.

Can we flip the rains up here please. Anything less then 2" is a waste of time Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

What are you going to do with all that water? It's probably the most you have ever seen.

Nws is really down playing this heavily it would seem, it would appear they favor the gfs.. there even thinking nbm precip amounts are to high... interesting Isn't there a saying when Upton isn't in, we get hit. Kept with NBM POPS for the most part, but feel that they may be a little too high during Friday through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances begin Friday morning, and for mainly east of the city, rain is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For the the city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50% through the event, but go above it Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking that rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to minor. QPF forecast combined with FFG values wouldn`t support flash flooding. If models trend west with the storm track, then western zones could have a chance of minor flooding. As for winds, anticipating gusts to remain below advisory thresholds, but it could come close across eastern LI and SE CT late day Friday through Saturday morning.

Nothing wrong at all with a reprieve. 16-24 was brutal for the continental U.S. and this year has been bad for Hawaii.

High wind watch up for Rhode Island shoreline... For what is worth 12k Nam is way west, waiting for 3k to finish

Nobody knows how to have fun around here.

Coastal flood watches and advisory have started

Drizzly and rainy today with a current temp of 59 degrees.