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I think the latest date ever recorded for the formation of a hurricane since maritime shipping logs occurred in 1941. That date is September 17th. That record is toast.

This is the thing forky is deliberately forgetting. 2023-24 averaged 0.7F warmer (DCA) compared to 97-98, and had 8" of snowfall. 15-16 was only 0.5F colder than 97-98. Likewise, 72-73 was 3F colder than that winter, but was also a shutout. A Super Nino can overwhelm the base state with torcherrific airmasses for 90% of the winter, but it very evidently does its best to load the deck in the few intervals that temperatures are remotely seasonable.

Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold. 1948-2020 Oct Nino:

This is the most Niño Niño that ever Niño’d.

Just wanted to say I have loved following you guys for the past 20 years. Through all the shitty winters and the real good ones. I'll never be on the level of you guys but I enjoy visiting this site daily, I feel like a pro when I'm informing friends and family. Either way here are some pics of my place in 2006. Red roof house.

Still following the progression of the four most recent El Ninos, but at much more extreme severity. The +15F stuff centered over Kansas should wash out a bit by the end of the month, same for the -5 to -10 centered on Oregon. We're seeing widespread heavy rains this month in New Mexico after very little rain in June-Aug. Will be curious to see how the month finishes locally. But 2015/2018/2023 had fairly wet Septembers as well locally.

Highs: PHL: 79 TEB: 78 New Brnswck: 75 EWR: 74 TTN: 74 LGA: 73 ACY: 72 NYC: 72 ISP: 71 JFK: *70 BLM: 70

Well done Liberty! 5 posts like the above and it’s like you’ve actually done your usual 40+. Oh and many happy returns …… as always ……

I was just updating myself on that area just now and NHC lowered it back down to 30% in the next 7 days lol. That's just how inhospitable the Atlantic's been this year. It's really crazy how hard it is for anything to form. I'd love at least one decent hurricane to track but maybe I'll get lucky with something in October hopefully if this one doesn't pan out. I think we're entering 5 days in a row now since September 11th when we beat the record for the latest forming hurricane in the satellite era and every day just keeps adding onto that record.

Every day is just another record broken for no hurricane formation which is just nutty honestly. Like normally when you beat records like this it's only maybe a few days but we're entering 5 days now since we broke the record back on September 11th. We do have that area of interest at 40% but I'm still not fully convinced it ends up developing into much of anything let alone a hurricane. But if it can take advantage of the good conditions that will be available in that small area of the Atlantic it could have a chance to spin up into something reasonable. Actually I was just checking that area of interest while writing this post just now and NHC went back down to 30% now lol

we are within 60 days of the election, time to reopen OT https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/38-limited-off-topic/

Tomorrow morning is going to feel amazing here in GSO. Fortunately I have a few days off to begin fall prep. I think we are all at the point where just a whiff of fall air is enough to tie us over into October. I like this idea being kicked around from prior Nino years of a fast pattern flip. I could live with that. But not at the expense of losing fall weather. My biggest fear is going from 80s to 40s overnight.

Western Albemarle streams are super low as well , despite substantial more rainfall east of the mountains.. I think that the spine of the Blue Ridge from 33 down to the Tye River headwaters in Nelson have been missing the consistent rain as well - that's been just a few miles to the east... With the exception being the eastern slopes of Afton - they have done great just like Charlottesville...

"...But what I have also found is a connection in the stratosphere. The image below shows a warmer winter stratosphere and a weaker/disrupted Polar Vortex, following a slow hurricane season. This does not imply that hurricane season directly impacts the Polar Vortex, but there is likely a common El Niño factor at play that also includes the Pacific impacts and atmospheric waves. With this in mind, I loaded and plotted the latest forecast data for the stratosphere. Below you can see the Polar Vortex wind forecast, which is how we estimate its strength. In this latest seasonal data, we can clearly see an interesting deceleration and a potential disruption trend starting in early January..."

Had the windows open this morning, woke up to low rumbles of thunder and heavy rain. Was dope as fuck.

John what do you think about AI replacing climate change as an extinction level threat? All the big AI execs have said it's very likely that AI advances will mean the end of humanity within a decade. That's why I laugh at these projections for 2050 and 2100. When very likely humanity won't even be around that long. And if we are around we either won't be living on this planet or we will have geo engineered it into unrecognizability. We will be living in climate controlled domes it will rain if and when we want it or need it to and the temperatures will be strictly controlled. We are already conducting cloud seeding on a historic scale with RAIN MAKER and spraying particles into the upper atmosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation is on the way. We'll probably ship off some of thid extra water and water vspor via space elevators to Mars and space colonies to control sea level rise and reduce the strongest greenhouse gas we have. Water vapor! We'll go from 70 percent water to 50 percent water.

Let me guess....he favors big time blocking.