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Watch the euro shoe a hecs and rope us all back in

Let him go, just like last night.

Just popping in here...Given that Euro (6z) and CMC and Ukie aren't even close to that, and given just how awful the GFS has been...I can't buy what it's selling. I can see it end up being way wrong and take all the way until Saturday to correct itself, lol I may be wrong but recent history with that model has been highly suspect... We'd have to see everything else take a decent step toward it to even start to believe it.

It depends on what you mean. In terms of “can the models get to looking like the GFS without fundamentally shifting the entire pattern”? Sure But the evolution of how the waves move, interact with one-another, their positioning are very much different Both solutions are physically possible to occur, but gun to my head I’d say the GFS is the least likely of the two by a considerable margin attm

In the end ... should the ECM/UKMET and any other east and/or smearing solutions prevail, the indices would have nailed this. From the get go, going back 10 days, the -PNA was establishing. It was actually partial ( at least) in discussion regarding warmth after the 15th. That's delayed ( perhaps ...). In fact, the operational pattern handling never really expanded the warmth as much as the indexes would statistically correlate, but there's always negotiation room. What we got out of that so far was a yesterday rain bust at 37 F. Where's my beach chair! 7 days ago when this started hinting, then getting pimped, I warned early on that deep lows crawling up the coast was not supported. The only reason this started getting more attention from me, is because there is a relative max in the PNA, while on whole, it's negative. The thing with the PNA domain is that it is very, very geographically large. One end of it can be positive(negative) and it may skew realities at the other end. So when seeing this, therein is room to negotiate an event, It's rising some 3 or 4 SD in three days there among the Can/Euro/U.S. clusters ... So, we'll see how the "negotiations" go.

I’m getting a few inches to ice . He’s getting rain

Or any model lol. They all had a big hit other than the OP Euro. Trash job by the entire field.

yep with this possible major storm gone, so is winter. Fitting end

the key here will be offshore or onshore wind-any stretch of east or northeast winds is going to be more awful that usual given the water temps being BN

It was off on its own 2-3 days before Jan 25 but not this far. This is odd. But it does suck.

joshing and joeking and baiting aside, I would love to see our lot try and survive just a single turbo feast/famine NE season. I've lost count of the number of mega dawgs they've had pop up well within kinda-not-fantasy-range only to go poof at ~100 hours just in '26. Yes I know you gotta live with it if you want 58734" Cat 8 slablizzard chances fives times a year in the first place, but that's exactly the problem. Shit cannot be for the faint of heart. I'm usually over it all by the second average-dawg rug pull of the season. Could you imagine going entire seasons with it literally hardly snowing and barely even a single head fake event, only to spend the very next year getting through like half a dozen possible major events that (irrespective of actual synoptic setup quality) show up well within reality range, with each one hanging around just long enough to trend away again? I think I'd probably be working for Exxon Mobil within two years.

What a waste of money this model is...

lol he’s next to me. Just talking about some of the issues here with this.

Periods of sprinkles occasionally mixed with very light drizzle

If this turns into the GFS going down in flames again, I don’t see how anyone in their right mind can take anything it shows for the rest of this winter seriously…..

Does this look familiar? Ocean Storm Poised To Brush Region On Sunday-Sunday Night Accumulations Largely Limited To Cape & Islands It appeared on Monday as though the second major winter storm within a week may impact the area with heavy snows, however, it now appears as though the region will be largely spared. Synoptic Overview The ingredients for major storm are still indeed brewing tonight. The two systems are still expected to phase over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, which makes for an ominous set up if one were to take a cursory glance at the chart below. However, as the weekend unfolds, two elements conspire to facilitate a track largely out to sea despite what is prototypically an ideal western CONUS ridge placement for a major northeast US strike. First of all, there is a follow up "kicker" system dropping into the northern plains, which acts to force the lead storm to continue moving along before it can phase proficiently. This prevents the low from gaining as much latitude as it otherwise would have with a western ridge thought Idaho and Montana. Secondly, there is an area of lead convection well south of New England that works in conjunction with the aforementioned trailing kicker over the northern plains to bias the movement of the system on a more eastward trajectory than it otherwise would have given that western CONUS ridge position. Thus the system cannot gain enough latitude to have a major impact on the region. That being said, some significant snowfall cannot be ruled out over the cape and islands on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Expected Storm Evolution Light snows will overspread the cape and islands around midday on Sunday, and quickly grow moderately moderate in intensity on Nantucket Island. Snow may grow briefly heavy for a time on Nantucket Island, as snowfall grows more moderate over the rest of the cape. Light snow may develop back to the south shore of Boston with light accumulations. Windy conditions and some beach erosion are likely on cape cod and the islands, regardless of snowfall. Precipitation then pulls back out to sea later in the evening and ends by midnight. There could potentially be up to an inch or two of snowfall on the cape, islands and south shore, from a combination of the fringe of the storm and ocean effect snow.

Man @CoastalWx weening his own kid. You know things are getting thrown against the walls in that house right now. At least we have May 1 season to look forward to, right @weatherwiz!!!!

I'd be a lot more excited/hopeful if the low was wrapped up off of Hatteras than the Eastern Shore haha

At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.

Yeesh many of the Gefs are just as bullish as the op… pretty tight cluster to the nw of the mean. this is either going to be an all time fail by the gfs suite or the coup of the decade. My money is on fail but it’s definitely going down swinging.

Well we were due for an event to vaporize right before our eyes

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines.

Don't worry. I won't

Yup, most of the energy is onshore today. The recon is also for atmospheric river research/data.

There's only so much lipstick you can put on a pig, I bet we start seeing a GFS cave coming up.