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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB -
NAM dries out quickly aloft Wed. Best shot is near S coast. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 62 here as well. -
Let’s see if we can gin one up this summer/ fall -
Had another round of very heavy rain early this morning that put down .95 inches. The Friday and Saturday portion of the flood watch didn't see much action imby with only around .8 inches of rain over both days, but the last 24 hours have delivered almost 4 inches.
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May change later....
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I know several families who moved back to New England after experiencing a hurricane while living in Florida.. People in New England are ill prepared for a direct hit from a strong hurricane. They talk tough but that toughness would vanish once they realize that an Oct snowstorm is a flurry when compared to a direct hit from a major hurricane -
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80 now
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Falls Lake has risen by nearly a foot since all of this rain and will likely climb a bit more today.
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It probably doesn't make it very far south at all. Looks like this will weaken quickly as it drops south across VT/NH. I do think there is still a shot for some storms in SNE on Wednesday south of the Pike, especially if the front can time a little slower. But convergence will be lacking and we may be drying out aloft quickly b/c the 850/700 front move through prior to the sfc front. I wouldn't totally sleep on it because if there are storms Wednesday there will be a increased risk for strong/severe -
Kind of funny that an "all time" record doesn't even span 80 years.
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something about 100+ in detroit and 89 imby feels weird but i'll take it
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1.77 the last 12 hours and 2.06 the past 24 hours
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How far south does the line make it? -
Shocked that they're only going with a heat advisory and not a warning.
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Yeah, sure! Whether it's 97 or 100 it's going to be crazy hot, might as well set a record. I'm pretty much down for any extreme type of weather. I have frozen watermelon and ice water for the chickens, and frozen baby carrots for my bunnies to munch on. Hopefully that will keep them from getting too hot this afternoon.
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And the power companies can trim all around the lines, still can have a tree 40Ft take out the span. I spent 2 weeks in the FL Pan Handle for work doing recovery and breath taking what CAT 5 damage looks like. Having food for at least 2 weeks and tarps/plywood for roofs are some of the immediate needs. Dorian was 75 miles off our coast before turning, thought it was lights out with that one but thankfully we were spared.
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Another 1938 would leave some people w/o electricity for months. Connie/Diane had incredible rain, especially in SNE, but I don't recall much wind in NNJ. Floods kill and destroy but usually don't mess up the grid like wind/ice/Octobombs. -
lots of clouds with convection rolling through the central part of the state -
Falls under the heading of people being careful what they wish for. The impacts will be far greater and far more long lasting than they think it will be. Why anyone wants the devastation of a redux of 1938 is beyond me. All I can say is some of them folk better have a plan in place to protect themselves, their families and their belongings..the hassle of finding people to repair the damage is going to pale in comparison to the protection aspect of the recovery....
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Over 50 knots of bulk shear with > 1500 MLCAPE within western Maine tomorrow evening on the 12z NAM ahead of that activity approaching from Quebec
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Lots of smoke up there today . Burning
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Nino 1+2 came in at +2.6 vs my guess of +2.7 to +2.8. Nino 3.4 rose only from +1.2 to +1.3 vs my guess of a rise to +1.4. The daily relative 3.4 OISST graph (see below) had suggested a rise of 0.2 rather than 0.1. Perhaps the rise was just under 0.15 and this rounded down to a rise of 0.1? But also, the image below of relative OISST for 3.4 suggests the relative 3.4 for last week (7/5-7/11 or the last 7 dots) was actually ~+1.5 (actually a little warmer than +1.5). So what’s going on? How come NOAA had it at only +1.3 being that they state it is OISST based? The +1.3 and this chart don’t jibe: 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.7 1.3 0.5
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This is interesting wording for NNE tomorrow: Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat, including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based supercell.
