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I see the Eastward motion help counteract the shear but as soon as it turn north, that is when you will start to see it get ripped apart.

Still a little disorganized on IR. Although, it seems to be fighting off shear a bit.

Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall. Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.

I saw that...he's swinging in towards my early hedge. Usually he likes to tout a more rapid weakening of El Nino amongst data, but I don't think that is the case, so it's probably the EURO in general looking snowier.

Well this thing has trended west so we may not get much rain at all around here

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me. It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

All guidance has a weak PV....check out the UK data. Blocking in a stronger El Nino isn't too surprising, but it is given the state of the stratosphere and solar cycle....I still feel like it's overdone in the seasonal mean, but I have no issue with a blocky second half overall.

HAFS A and B are predicting a decapitation at landfall

Looking at this in more detail, the 1992 storm was never an ideal track for all snow in NYC/LI and SNE. This past event had a much more favorable track.

Yes, I think that it definitely part of it, but some more than others...I think it's also important to view the RONI relative to the ONI, rather than in a vacuum. A crude, but effective way to distinguish these more recent MC oriented El Nino seasons is to utilize the delta between the RONI, which separates ENSO-related warming from general background warming attributable to climate change, and the ONI. The positive ONI/RONI ratio in the four most recent El Nino seasons, which denotes a RONI lagging the ONI, is indicative of surplus of warmth over the western Pacific relative to the eastern Pacific, which is the very essence of the mechanism that focuses the convection there. Notice how the ONI and RONI are equal in 1997 and the ONI is actually higher in 1986-1987. However, in 2016, the RONI is significantly lower and the spread is even greater in 2023, with a RONI value .6 lower than than the ONI. ONI RONI RATIO 2023: 2.1 1.5 0.6 2018 1.1 0.8 0.3 2016 2.8 2.4 0.4 2014 0.8 0.6 0.2 2009 1.6 1.6 0.0 2006 0.9 0.9 0.0 2004 0.7 0.9 -0.2 2002 1.3 1.5 -0.2 1997 2.4 2.4 0.0 1994 1.1 1.4 -0.3 1991 1.7 2.3 -0.6 1987 1.7 1.6 -0.1

When you have jet fuel water temps unaffected by any other tropical system this year-yep that’s what happens. Luckily conditions should become significantly more hostile as it comes in.

The northern CT border towns do. But yes, definitely worse to the north.

The Euro going into late winter and spring still has ENSO values warmer than any event had during the Nov-Dec peaks in the past.

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks.

It’s ridiculous how almost every storm in the gulf seems to rapidly intensify now.

It's going to be a winner today, low 70s

Yes and the vast majority of that was low-hanging fruit - in rural areas of a tyrannical country - China, where they have cheap labor and little regard for the environment or human rights. Here in the rest of world though things aren't so easy. As an example - here's the mix for the past month PJM interconnect - the largest electrical grid in the US: https://www.gridstatus.io/live/pjm Only 2.6% was wind, and 3.7% solar. The vast majority is natural gas, nuclear, and coal. This is after several decades of big subsidies for renewables - still only 6% of the mix, in the largest grid in the country. Why, may you ask? Because a lot of people live here. It's just really hard to put solar and wind where people live. Because as I say - it take a lot of room, and a lot of resources. And people don't like it when your replace their local forests and farmlands with fields full of man made industrial stuff.

Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday.

The current ENSO longitude Index lines up better with other years using ONI vs RONI. A couple of possible explanations: 1) This nino is unusually east-based for its strength and/or RONI isn't a great strength indicator for this particular nino. In any case this year is an outlier.

52 and moderate rain in Athol...warm weather setup is back

A balmy 50F down here compared to yesterday’s 32F

Yup ...