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If some of the models are correct there could be a flooding threat tomorrow with some areas getting 2 to 4 inches of rain. Probably will be the usual situation with some spots getting a lot of rain while other spots get a little.

the beginning of the end of summer?

Looking at Mt Holly and the models watch this be a reverse June 27th.

Big 35

Can I get away with planting a dwarf Alberta Spruce IMBY this weekend? Or is it too soon.

Do you whine about everything? Just enjoy it. Remarkable stretch.

It was a beautiful morning; went cycling up the Parkway this AM:

A grand total of .02 here overnight.

Yeah, but was is equilibrium when d(C) is not only positive, but d(d(C)) at that. The second derivative being the acceleration quotient. That means that any return state is returning a higher level. So if the idea is to return below the warmer state, that basis has changed higher. Climate doesn't move that fast, no. But as 2023 evinces ... the jolt by .5 and holding there, probably was a two-fold factorization of the Earth being behind schedule in warming - so a bit of a restoring force, while also having the longer term slope of changing positive.

yeah like a 6" depth

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early.

The pattern continues as well with me being in the office tomorrow...always.

Morning discussion from LWX seems to suggest sneaky severe day. While likely do be MRGL, they do mention much higher threat possible Latest guidance is a bit slower and further west/northwest with the position of a cold front on Thursday. SLP progs hint at two subtle warm front type features that will lift northeast during the day on Thursday ahead of a pair of weak surface lows (one near PA/NJ, and the other near central VA). Where this front ends up just prior to peak heating will be crucial in determining the severe weather threat locally on Thursday. Forecast soundings show strong mid-level capping west of the front Thursday afternoon, with no capping and notably stronger CAPE approaching or exceeding 2000 J/kg east of it. The consensus is for this front to be more or less over I-95 Thursday afternoon during peak heating, though there is some variance anywhere from near the Blue Ridge to the Chesapeake Bay. Mid-level lapse rates start the day unimpressive, around 5 C/km likely due to saturation aloft associated with a weak wave of showers, but steepen slightly closer to 6 C/km by afternoon due to some cooling aloft. The extent of any clouds and showers cast some uncertainty on the extent of heating and instability later in the day. The background environment is favorable for strong to severe updrafts and even supercells. An 80-90+ kt upper jet will pivot over the area, with its right entrance ascent positioned over the surface frontal zone in the afternoon. Mid-level heights stay relatively steady, but PVA (strongest north) will be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned mid/upper wave and jet. Flow will increase through the column, with 25-40 kts in the 2-5 km AGL layer and effective deep layer bulk shear around 40 kts. SRH also increases to 100-200 m2/s2. Initial discrete cells in this environment may quickly grow upscale into a line capable of surges of strong to severe straight-line wind and a few embedded spin ups. Some hail can`t be ruled out in the strongest storms due to cooling temps aloft. Finally, although Corfidi vectors are not too low (10-15 kts), on the mesoscale some backbuilding or training potential may exist on the tail (southwest) end of any developing line heading into the evening. Again, the highest potential will be along and east of the front which currently appears to be near I-95 during the afternoon into the early evening hours. Although somewhat conditional based on (1) the placement of the front, and (2) the degree of instability, Thursday`s severe weather and excessive rainfall risk bears monitoring. For now, given the uncertainties listed above, the risk is more in the Marginal (level 1 out of 5) bin for severe weather (i.e. any damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes), but with a conditionally much higher ceiling than most typical late summer days. The excessive rainfall/flood risk may be even more conditional due to uncertain mesoscale factors and lingering drought.

Edibles?

Didn’t SSTs down there hit 100 a couple years ago?

Absolute chasm of a gap between the mesos with how they depict tomorrow.

NAM nest sends pretty robust UH tracks over the area tomorrow.

30 plus inches in roughly 5 hours in 1 night... Luckily the Madison county event in 95 occurred during the day with similar 30 inch totals - or the death toll there would have been extreme...

Yep! I will put this on my list to get fixed. Appreciate the tip. I am having a lot of fun with it though like wishcasting a SSW

It's always possible a mistake was made, especially considering the massive amount of things I am working on to get it live. I will take a second pass on the cansips to see if I messed something up.

That is quite the model battle tomorrow

That's 12.0" for June 1 thru August 18, probably normal or slightly AN for that period in your neighborhood. August is imitating July a bit. July 1-4: +10.3; 5th on: -1.0; Month total: +0.5 Aug 1-9: +4.7; 10th-18th: -0.4; 1-18: +2.2 I'm guessing August will finish in the +1/+2 range.