All Activity

Somebody’s going to get hit good midweek.

That's a good question.

I think the snow will have trouble accumulating on the old snow pack, especially since temperatures are now falling back towards freezing. The new snow will rapidly melt the old snow. /social commentary

Moderate snow here roads caving. OK, drizzle. But in all seriousness guidance suggests all snow by 8-9PM. Lfg. If i can count 2 dozen snowflakes tonight, its a win.

And I think the “Cherry Hill” radar is still down.

Flipped to a mix of rain/snow - wish I could predict the lottery too.

18z GFS for Wednesday

41f humidity 64% dew point 30f light rain 0.01” Total Snow Year 25.8”

The models are showing snow falling. Not accumulating. I don't know that it makes it down to 32 tonight in NYC. Maybe it does. But what is the timing? How much time between when the snow starts falling and us getting to 32 is there? An hour? Two? Maybe an inch and a half falls. But I doubt CPK measures anything above half an inch.

Will see a bit of enhancement as coastal takes over later...

How did Staunton only get 21.5" in 1996?

Down to 34/33, hoping we can end as some wet snow.

Def hoping for some boomers around here. May even get a marginal severe risk.

How do you figure?

38.3(high)/37.4 at 4:45 pm with mod rain and fog. Just a smidge over 1/2" since 7 am here.

USA! USA! They’re playing a perfect game through 2 periods against Germany

A weak system will pass south of New York City tonight into early tomorrow. The temperature will likely remain near or above freezing during most of the event. Assuming a snow-liquid ratio of about 6:1 to 7:1 based on past cases with < 0.20" precipitation and lows of 31°-33° with a storm total 0.10"-0.15" QPF, New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see a coating to 1" of snow (probably 0.5”-1.0” in Central Park). A realistic high-case figure for New York City is 1.5". A few places across central New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" of snow. Most amounts will be 2" or less in those areas. Following the light snowfall, the clouds will break and the temperature will top out in the lower 40s in New York City. Tuesday will also see highs reach the middle 40s. A warm front will cross the region on Wednesday with some rain showers or a period of rain but its progress could slow or stall. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +15.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.188 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

I mean I'd rather it be snow but....damn do i love me a good steady rain. I'm such a sucker for any cozy vibes

Let’s do a few big events with 40s and 50s in between.

Light spritzes Radar looks like dog poop why is it shrinking south

.22 so far

Light rain here in NW Chesco with a temperature down to 37.8 down 2.1 degrees in past hour.

I typically use the Koreas and the Yellow Sea in our parts.You wanna see deeper troughs into this part for us While also using East Asia doesnt never correlate 1:1,you have other teleconnections to look at in North America,but it still should give you a rough idea. While you see a trough here into Japan,this is more than likely be a trough in the East.I wouldnt be surprised to see this slow down in future runs.The GAAM looks fairly negative right now,this should be a slower pattern just because the earths rotation slows down sorta speaking,its opposite with a positive GAAM

50f/50dp 1.92in @ the jetport.

The 23-25th is real . Analogs say so. They got the early Dec one, wrong about 12/22-24 one , mostly got snowcrete correct. Blows the models away .