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Is 99L going to be the first TC formation of the month? Edouard became a TC in August. When was the last Sept that didn’t have a TC formation by now? 2025 took til Sep 17th. 1976 didn’t have one that later became a TS til the TD that formed on 9/26 and that became TS Gloria on 9/27. And there was a ST storm on Sept 13th. So, that doesn’t count as a TC. However, 1976 also had 2 TCs that maxed out as only TDs early in Sep. in the satellite era. So, even if a TD is declared today, 2026 has already beaten 2025 for the latest 1st TC declared in Sept. during the satellite era. Now, if it becomes a TS, that would mean that 1976 would remain the season with the latest first named TS in Sept. in the satellite era, which is Sept 27th.

The 60's forecast for Tuesday through Thursday are overly optimistic guidance has it staying in the 50's

Saturday Night A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. High near 70. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Monday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Super El Niño this analog year that, anymore…

Praise Jesus!

Next week is looking like some of the best weather since last spring -- dark, dreary, dank, damp and dismal. The sun has overstayed it's welcome. Time to break out the flannel shirts, hockey jerseys and jeans! 85F/DP 66F

no i did not

Which is crap for snow south of 40N

It didn't stop you from commenting in the NE forum, nor did you question it. Lol

fat people water

that map means nothing without the years listed

GGEM is a 5-day disaster

My garden is begging for some sun. This entire week has been gloomy and wet.

This CFSv2 seasonal prediction site, which includes the ENSO SSTa forecasts, hasn’t updated in over 4 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml This is the most recent 10 day mean forecast for RONI: this has a peak at +2.9, compares to peaks of ~+3.5 on some runs from late July, and was suggesting further drops in the peak being likely on later 10 day means due to most of the blue lines being lower than the red ones:

Next week looks like the worst September weather week of a lifetime

That’s going to take a big hit next week.

83 / 61 more sun now

Surprised you didn't post this snowfall map posted in the NE forum that shows AN snowfall in a good part of the Mid Atlantic. You commented on it in the NE forum.

You think this storm system is a sign that we might be seeing the nino couple atmospherically? Looked briefly at the H5 maps and it seems to be almost miller-B ish though as most vorticity is coming from the north to the south (or is the subtropical jet still displaced north due to summer?)

Well.... an unforecasted short rain shower just went through Frederick...

12Z UKMET is at least the 2nd full run with it as a TD but the prior run didn’t do so until hour 36 (tomorrow at 8AM EDT) before dissipating it 48 hrs later; this run has it already doing that as of 2PM EDT today and then moving very little and never becoming a TS prior to dissipating at hour 96: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.9N 34.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2026 12 32.2N 33.6W 1016 20 1200UTC 19.09.2026 24 32.7N 33.2W 1014 22 0000UTC 20.09.2026 36 33.1N 33.4W 1015 22 1200UTC 20.09.2026 48 33.8N 32.9W 1014 27 0000UTC 21.09.2026 60 35.0N 32.6W 1014 25 1200UTC 21.09.2026 72 34.5N 31.9W 1015 27 0000UTC 22.09.2026 84 33.5N 32.7W 1017 25 1200UTC 22.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING