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no kidding. 100% of possible so far down here. MET MOS 41. Noooormally I'd suggest at this time of year we add the perfunctory tick or two to the high, but with all this white shit underneath ... DPs are low so melt will be slow but the sun will breach that critical angle for maybe 1.5 hrs at zenith this time of year, and that becomes more of a direct melt assault for that time span. Probably a lot of dripping and some street gutter brooks at that time. I'm ready... I could use a 55/48 overnight rainer to really eat this shit down. We'll cross the flooded bridge if/when that happens.

Huge north shift on icon due to the high being way further east.

Icon further north for next week 6z vs 12z

Icon brings some snow north of I-70

Took some time away from models after a crazy 7 day stretch at the winter desk. Just from a glance, I haven’t been too enthused. Still a shot at some snow, but max potential is probably 2-4”. Need something with more umph this time of year to really get anything appreciable. Judging by the ensembles after this one, I’m gearing up for spring mode. Baseball is on the horizon and I’m ready to tackle some outdoor walks, hiking, and meals outside. I’ll always welcome some snow though, so if it happens, I’ll accept.

Also have to differentiate between short term and long term drought. Long term drought isn't a huge deal around here because we don't have the issues with limited supply the West has. It seems our short term drought is mostly gone after today in NC.

2014-2015 was followed by a record warm May (or at least close to it). One of the most remarkable pattern turnarounds in spring, right along with 2010.

Do you agree that models are "overcooking" a storm and it won't be much for anyone?

Our products have deadlines, so we can’t adjust the overnight forecast with the 06z guidance. If things remain like they are, it’ll be reflected in the next update.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/184f9zjK13/?mibextid=wwXIfr

31.7° with flurries. Very little sun so far today.

Yeah, I saw Tim Kelly saying that this would be trying to push GW agenda. These people are freaking psycho.

Your son, me, and Cold Miser too.

Classic spring setup there. Away from the water warm, chilly near the ocean/sound

Everyone measured wrong across 3 states? Giant conspiracy to push GW agenda? Beer? We may never know. Either way F storm. Run of the mill 10-18" forgettable coastal.

Oh wow, awesome man!

What I meant by stay there, was consistent days in the 60’s and 70’s. 98% of the time it won’t last long. And sure, I certainly remember and agree that there’s been some solid stretches…I’d take that in a heartbeat. But it looks(at least in the long range that it doesn’t seem to want to last this March)…but of course that’s very much subject to change too.

Sound like the first half of March will be AN temp wise.

Lol…he has the same birthday as me. And yes, 2010 got nice quick, and lasted.

2016 - 2020 seemed to feature a balm blast every Feb, Mar, or Apr in that stretch. Just sayn' not sure what the conversation is otherwise haha

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

Might be some wild temp gradients if that heat wave verifies, probably mid to high 70s in NJ and maybe low 50s on LI. Does not look like it lasts terribly long, another cold stretch could easily occur by mid month or slightly before

Everyone always mentions 2012 for warmth in March, but forget 2010. My son was born March 16, 2010, when we brought him home on the 20th I was in shorts and tee shirt. Must have been around 75

Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. Beyond that next week it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds.

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too. But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical.