All Activity

Oh, and that far more apparent just on the forums in AmrWx, esp. on the New England group! Never have I seen such EEYORE-type attitudes, even after the two blockbuster snowstorms in New England this past winter, and a rather cold winter to boot (snow cover stuck around a long time even in DCA/BWI). But it had only been 4 year since the last big snowstorm for the NEUS. You'd think it was 40 years from the posts! And then I have to keep telling so many, you have no idea how lousy it was for East Coast winters 1978-79 to 1991-92! However, two New England direct hurricane strikes during that tperiod, so not all "the worst!"

some stormy conditions (again)

I liked rufus 2.0. Newark!

It's one reason why you can't rely on the wx for steady ratings or interest. You think svr wx season will segue nicely into hurricane, and then into winter storm season (or should I say EAST COAST snowstorm season b/c that's all the seems to matter to the MSM for ratings!), but it isnot always going to cooperate, so you get all these anniversaries or past systems for filler even though they are not multiple of 5 years! There is a lot TC activity going on in the NHEMI currently, but the Atlantic bias is obvious Yet the Atlantic only accounts for about 15% of annual global TC accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). We've been "spoiled" in the Atlantic since 1995 and eventually the AMO is going to flip for a quieter Atlantic. When they will be? Not clear. Last active active period before this one was 1926-1969. Prior to that, the 1870s to about 1900. So looking at 30-45 year cycle here?, but we only have two data points in the period of record, so that is far from telling us the extent of what happens for Atlantic TC cycles (up oe down), but we do have a solid idea the Atlantic TC activity does come in multi-decade cycles and know that it is the most variable TC basin in the world.

Can make it up . Just unreal

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some areas could see flooding downpours. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Following the frontal passage, Friday through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.645 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

He’s called for tors to the coast al summer . Most of us haven’t seen lighthing

December preview

Nino: Cool summer No Tropical Activity Mild snowless winter You have 2 of 3 thus far for all those people that will call for snowy and cold in late Oct

It’s tragic and hard to watch. Unlike Johnstown though a bunch of rich pricks didn’t essentially cause it.

What about intervals of - EPO. Also, wonder if I can see a cold Oct/Nov at times due to intense late season West Pac typhoons recurving and its interactions with the EPO domain. Speculation really.

It was a cherry yesterday. Lots of shear, dust out there.

Chris numbers can be made to show anything, the point is this summer doesn't hold a candle to any of the ones I mentioned, not even last summer, let alone 2010, 2005, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1988, 1983, 1980 and those are 10 just off the top of my head that were much hotter. Yes we had an extremely hot 4 day period so this summer was like a much lesser version of 1966. 1966 also had a three day 100 plus streak at JFK but each of those days was hotter not to mention heat waves were much longer back then. Our summer ended after July 15th.

Pretty wild https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tbwb/executive

Let's hang out! I'm also thinking about buying one. You can travel all over Upstate NY on the awesome trail system they have. LFG! I agree 100%! He's also is one hell of a good cook.

1948 WOW now THAT was a real summer and if I'm not mistaken JFKs latest 100 degree day and back to back 100 degree days and NYC had three in a row in late August no less!!!

I corrected the 100% in a later post. Here's the actual breakdown.

It's not that simple. Yes mild and wet is the status quo but other factors play a major role too. I think hurricane season will mostly be a shutout but watch out for homebrew threats in September/October. SSTs are above normal and there's lower shear north of the MDR

Correction it was 56.9% not 100. Tweet I read fast. Apologies.

Oh wow

Wiz seems confused.

The Thursday/Friday rain chances seem to be evaporating as the front lags to the northwest and energy skips by to the North.. Drought conditions continue for many and El Nino guarantees NOTHING.

I was born and raised in the Midwest but have lived all over. My favorite was probably in the mountains near Durango Colorado. Stunningly beautiful and nature every direction you look. The summers were incredible. Perfect weather and no mosquitos or annoying bugs due to the altitude I was at (about 8,000ft). The mountains created almost daily little thunderstorms. By little, I mean you could legit actually walk around them. Almost every afternoon around 3pm you could plan on it. It was very cool. Fire danger wasn’t cool though and the winters could get a little depressing. The mountains made the sun disappear by 2pm so it was just cold and dark most of the time. I also enjoyed San Diego. Absolutely amazing beaches and pretty much perfect weather daily. But I really started missing changing weather and season changes. Going 6 months without rain was something I could never get used to. I heard thunder maybe twice in those 6 years I lived there. I know it’s weird to complain about perfect weather all the time, but the lack of variety was torturing me as a weather weenie. As with most of you, I’m just a midwesterner through and through. I’d like to move to the northwoods of Wisconsin someday as I don’t mind the cold and snow and move it up there, but the job market keeps me further south. Maybe I’ll retire up there someday. But as someone who has lived all over the country and travelled it extensively (49/50 states multiple times), there are many places I love to visit, but the Midwest has always been “home.” I will likely spend the rest of my life here. we are very fortunate to live in this big, beautiful country though. Anything you want, we got it. photo of one of the Durango thunderstorms I was talking about…

yes