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0.55” here

Enjoy!

Yup. Like the one that got a lump of coal...lol

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.

You are misunderstanding me....I know what RONI is...it's not the reading itself that I am concerning myself with. It's what it represents....we WANT the El Niño to correlate to the North Pacific pattern, so having the RONI lag the ONI does not mean that it's a "weaker" El Niño...it means that there is another force, likely of cool ENSO ilk, competing with the El Nino, and it's not forcing the north Pac pattern to a degree commensurate with the ONI intensity. If it were simply a weaker El Niño....it's probably more west-based and the Aleutian low is thus further west, which is favorable....but a lower RONI may mimic a west-based in the SST pattern, but actually has so much warmth in the western Pacific as to introduce more MC forcing than is typical in a potent El Niño. We'll see what happens have a lower RONI again in another strong El Niño.

He forgot one… This should mean a better than normal chance of a historic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic & Northeast next Winter. Maybe a mostly one & done type of Winter, like 1983 or 2016, but if it is a 2 to 3 feet snowstorm, it might be worth it.

I expect the O’s will have a terrific summer. And watching the Caps tonight, they seem ready for the golf course too. Horrendous effort this evening.

Central Park, JFK Airport, and LaGuardia Airport had identical low and high temperatures (57°-42°) today. The last time that happened was August 29, 2025 when all three stations had a 78°-65° daily temperature range. That was the only such occurrence last year. The record is 4 occurrences. That record was set in 1959 and tied in 1968 and 1976.

It’s a nasty gusty sheet drizzle right now. 41°

The RONI isn't an index like the NAO or Solar cycle. It's relative ENSO index, to account for global warming. To compare differences in pattern in RONI vs ONI is just to talk about global warming trend of late. There's not a magical formula in RONI that makes it stronger than ONI a good pattern. You are basically just saying before 2010 was easier to get a cooler 500mb pattern. I'm pointing out that the area where ENSO has most impact - the N. Pacific - has correlated better to the RONI than ONI as of late, making RONI a better gauge to ENSO's impact.

.37 total here.

It got up to 71 just before 11 am before the front came through and knocked the reps down about 15 degrees. Ended up with 0.38" in the bucket, but that was over a 5 hour period, so no gully washers. It did get pretty humid around the frontal passage though. Currently 52 with dp 44.

@Stormchaserchuck1, I agree that the correlation tools have some utility, but I do think that @bluewave is onto something with the lower RONI being reflective of a negative impact for eastern winter enthusiasts....ie cool ENSO residue. Consider several moderate to strong El Nino events that were "good".....ie 1957, 1965, 1986, 2002, and 2009...EVERY ONE OF THEM had a RONI was at least equal to, or GREATER than the ONI.

0.18".

After a break in action, we now have Easter snow at WXW2. Can we snow Memorial Day too?

maybe snow covered Tuesday

Loves chilly at night this week, gonna be dormant for quite awhile longer now

I'll have to check my bleeding hearts. I didn't know they started this early. Magnolia tree next door is ready to pop.

It’s a gamble. If this el nino turns out as strong as current forecasta (I think not), then we probably torch. Snowfall? Either a ratter or a one-and-done that drops 20” or more.

Awesome!

With no rain. Fun times

Yeah im not sure but we've seen a lot of local mets go from here to Atlanta. I'm sure the money is great.

0.26” but the yard is soggy

I became aware of coral reef bleaching with the terrible event that affected the reef near the FL Keys in the summer of 2023, when there was a marine heatwave. I clearly remember that the heating of the waters there was made worse by a lack of rainfall/clouds. I think winds were mainly pretty light. Even not so shallow waters near the coral warmed into the low to mid 90s! This was like the SW US heatwave. There were these unique conditions that when superimposed on overall already warmer than avg waters due to GW favored heating the waters to record high levels. I posted about this many times in the warming oceans thread of this CC section. This extreme warmth lasted for many weeks, which was much too long for the coral to avoid bleaching, when the stressed coral expels the beneficial algae that it feeds on. The good news is that scientists supposedly moved portions of most, if not just about every, species to safety into much better conditions allowing them to thrive and prevent extinction. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/confronting-floridas-coral-collapse-153304/ Good news was that 2024 and 2025 FL Keys waters weren’t nearly as warm since the conditions favoring the marine heatwave weren’t present. I also read that there are some coral species in other parts of the world where normal SSTs are warmer that tolerate much warmer temperatures, which will help as the oceans continue to warm since some of these species could be placed elsewhere to help combat the bleaching problem. Ultimately though, the hope of course is for oceans to stop warming. https://eos.org/articles/some-corals-are-more-heat-resistant-than-thought

He did! There was another recent guy who is on Weather Nation. His name escapes me.