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NHC gives Lala 55 kt at 00z. Yes, the pressure is down 2 to 995 mb, but peak 700 mb FL winds are only 53 kt w/ max SFMR surface winds of 48 kt. Standard reduction for 700 winds to the surface and the SFMR winds are matched well here, so 50 kt seems more appropriate. The 2330z Dvorak analysis gives T3.0 which equals 45 kt. So the satellite signature is not 55 kt, which would be a T3.5. Satellite signature does still matter even when recon is present b/c recon can only sample a small part of the storm. Satellite gives a complete view. Looking at the EIR loop, there is no real change in organization, and the deep convection is pulsing and not banded well. Loop attached, We all see the same data, so not arm-chairing here, just giving an objective meteorological analysis, and talking about the different tools and products one can use to make their own assessment, which is a good thing to do!

I had a brief shower and a sprinkle earlier this evening. We'll see what that sagging boundary brings tomorrow.

Yes, good correction. That was my intention.

4th evening in a row with storms. 6 out last 7 days. This time no warning but just a Special Weather Statement and tons of lighting and heavy rain. I echo John the lighting in these storms have been incredible.

Hit 98 once again. I believe that is 3 times we hit 98 this year. Can't seem to get above 98 thankfully.

Shocking this line blew up just south https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard

When measuring enso strength you’re talking tenths of a degree making a difference as far as records. No one can convince me that we know the strength of an El Niño from the 1700s. Even 1877-1878 is questionable down to tenths of a degree IMO.

Front range in general really doing well (for the drought, not for the flooding) today and tonight.

^^ Where's the cold coming from? Models are going to bias too cool 90% of time in warm-season, at least at medium range and ofc especially beyond. almost too easy at this point

Been raining on north shore of Suffolk but clear here

Interesting how the big cooldown with BN and blues kept backing off. Now N to slightly AN this coming week

Perhaps a rain shower/sprinkle or two Monday AM. Models widely display this theme and I think we'll see the ground wet Maybe not all locales, esp. underneath trees etc.

I never expected a drop and didn't get one. All about expectations. Just a Stein summer

Another little batch not a ton today but my new landscaping is soaking it up 0.14 today

Nice summary from NJ Climate Office for July 2026. Lots of rain! Sadly a preliminary count of 33 NJ weather related fatalities. https://www.njweather.org/articles/july-2026-recap Watch for locally heavy rainfall totals later Sunday into Sunday evening.

Not sure which would do this first, but I know they would do it for different reasons! @CoastalWx would do it b/c he pines for snow, and @weatherwiz would b/c he is just happy getting hail! https://www.facebook.com/reel/1613750856948083 hailPHUN.mp4

Sounds like Connecticut Shade Tobacco? I have enjoyed many cigars wrapped in it.

LWX seems to be hitting the threat a bit harder in this afternoon AFD DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms and some instances of flash flooding are possible on Sunday. Some residual convective activity may be ongoing on Sunday morning. This remains to be seen and will be guided by the degree of overnight instability and boundary placement. How the atmosphere recovers through the day should ultimately dictate the degree of severe thunderstorm threat during the core diurnal heating hours. The ingredients are certainly present for a more impactful event if meteorological parameters all come together. Looking a bit more closely at this event, a broad mid/upper ridge persist across the Four Corners eastward to the southwestern Atlantic. Amplified flow north of this expansive anticyclone will continue to be a conduit to active convection, many in the form of mesoscale convective systems (MCS). As mentioned above, a remnant MCS might still be ongoing early Sunday across the region. While above average heights persist, expect some non-zero height falls to cross the area in response to an approaching shortwave. Within this northwesterly flow aloft, vertical shear is ample for the time of year, generally around 30 to 35 knots. Depending on model choice, mixed-layer CAPE values approach 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. The combination of these two will easily support a risk of severe weather. While damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat, other severe types loom if storms can remain discrete in nature. Additionally, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall continues along much of the Alleghenies eastward along/north of I-66/U.S. 50. Precipitable water values rise markedly, possibly into the 2 to 2.25 inch range. While a single thunderstorm will be capable of torrential downpours, the bigger threat would be for repeat and/or training convection. The latter potential exists which supports the flash flood risk. Although drought continues over much of the region, many areas have seen a one category improvement over the past week. Convection will likely be ongoing into Sunday night with the cold front not passing through until early Monday.

Oh ok 499 NWUS51 KLWX 142303 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 703 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0541 PM Hail 2 E Charlottesville 38.04N 78.44W 08/14/2026 M2.50 inch Albemarle VA Local Official Also reports of hail damage to vehicles at the same location. && Event Number LWX2608205

This is just more of the same. North side of Charlottesville reports 1.74" last hour. Much of the Charlottesville area has received 8 - 12 inches of rain in the past month while Augusta has received 2 inches. That NBM grid from Will shows much of Augusta receiving 1.50" thru Sunday. That ain't gonna happen. I pray that on Sunday I can say that I was wrong. The NBM has predicted 10 of our 2 inches in the past month.

Hey man hury up...we are going to need those trailers for that move from CT to Texas...

1601z SAR pass does not show a well-organized system (see attachment). Looks like there are two LLCCs and this large N-S gap of light winds and strong asymmetry. I don't know why NHC keeps saying, "conditions generally favorable." That is vague. Dry air and shear are an issue. CMISS 18z analysis showed 18 kt of westerly shear present. Lala was 50 kt/997mb at 03z and still is 50 kt/997mb at 21z. 2156z recon shows these values unchanged. Models still show an upper-level trough developing over the western Hawaiian Island as Lala gets close to the Big Island, so that is not "favorable" in an overall sense. NHC seems to be hedging higher and using persistence IMHO. One possible factor is that topographic convergence may tighten the wind field along the srn tip of the Big Island as gets close for 64 kt winds, but that's a local mesoscale factor not directly related to actual intensification of the TC synoptically. Topographic influences for winds are to be discarded for assigning actual TC intensity AFAIK. It is similar to discarding mesoscale higher winds from intense pulsing convection when shear is present for the TC (Bertha had this big time) or a transient mesovort in the eye. Still a significant impact on Hawaii, not downplaying that, just talking above about the finer details of meteorological analysis, which I hope some find informative.

Nice. Got about a half inch here.