All Activity

Collegeville near Wegmans was hit by heavy rain and thunder

Looks a couple cells in west central nj moving northeast

That was a lie, sideways rain and T&L, torrential 1.18" now.

Looks like the tornado warnings so far have been outside of the tornado watch (within the severe thunderstorm watches).

^I think we are still "evening out" a strong 28-year period of La Nina: Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. Since 1948, the tendency for reversal of multi-year ENSO patterns has been really strong. Here's the closest multi-year example: Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (ONI):70-71: Moderate La Nina71-72: Weak La Nina72-73: Super El Nino73-74: Strong La Nina74-75: Weak La Nina75-76: Strong La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak (ONI):76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El NinoReally interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Then again, it has also been really hard to go ENSO Neutral in any year: Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. I don't know that we'll see a Moderate-Strong La Nina snap back this time. Cold water is not really building in the western-subsurface. Weak Nina would be my guess but I could be wrong!

Happy to miss the severe so far, any risk of the smoke sticking around if the rain busts though?

0.06" on the day. Still 81F with a 77F dew. HRRR is not optimistic for later on. No rotation... At all?

You had this left mover (anticyclonic supercell) near Manassas earlier. You do not even have to look at the velocity to know this. The storm is deviating to the left of the mean flow and it has the flared NW to SE structure w/ the anvil streaming to the SE despite the storm moving NE! When storms rotate, it becomes complex as to the total motion vectors acting on the storm. Anticyclonic supercells rarely produce tors (in the NHEMI), but giant hail and microbursts are just as likely as w/ cyclonic supercells

We did ?

Unimpressed with everything about this day, had zero expectations. It was always going to be a slopfest, there was only ever one run of one model that looked really interesting for my area, and obviously that ain't enough to get exited about, unless maybe if you're Wiz (just kidding). I did raise an eyebrow when the SPC expanded probs for spinners here but never really bought into that because experience has taught me they seldom do great with New England setups and I just didn't see anything that looked unusually good for tors and supes this far north and east, despite the decent shear. Could still get surprised, I suppose, but I consider that possibility increasingly unlikely. Maybe the next one, sigh...

0.47”. I’ll take it, but we desperately need a region-wide soaker.

congrats MVY, awt .05"

Originally late afternoon. But it appears any low-level shear is gone and cape never built with our socked-in cloud cover and smoke. It might storm later but I don’t personal see fuel in the HBG metro.

Since the early 1980's when the DMI hits a certain porportion its always followed by a LaNina the following winter.As if this is one of those years is unknown ATM.DMI peaks into fall so there is a few months to even seemingly have an idea

Extensive damage throughout my neighborhood. Over 20 separate homes with trees laying on them. Trees down everywhere. Telephone poles snapped in half. Neighbors keep saying a tornado went through the area. Luckily no damage at the house but no power.

Missed the worst of the T&L but got the rain, 0.72" and counting

if you have fire tv download myradar app can zoom into street level and no clutter

Yeah no kidding!

Mr. J just went out to pick up our dinner. Opened the door and walked into a sauna. This is in Lewes DE by the way so the storms have not gotten here yet.

So I asked AI to review the Chester County PA raw data set since 1893 to find if there is a significnant p-value that shows warming in this County. The AI review of the data finds clearly that No — the raw Chester County composite does not show a statistically significant warming trend since 1893. The numbers (1893–2025, 133 years) Linear trend: +0.0043°F/year (≈ +0.43°F per century) 95% confidence interval: −0.0012 to +0.0097°F/year — this interval includes zero, which is the definition of "not significant" R² = 0.018 (the trend line explains less than 2% of year-to-year variation) p = 0.128 — above the conventional 0.05 threshold A robust version of the same test (Theil-Sen, less sensitive to outlier years) gives essentially the same answer: +0.40°F/century, still not significant So statistically, you can't distinguish this composite from a flat line over 133 years. Only if we allow NCEI post hoc alterations and adjustments to the raw data can we glean any signifcant p-value warming across Chester County PA!

Drizzle It's rained twice today and yet to wet the ground.

Anyone have a good radar they’re using

More days than not when svr wx occurs and it is favorable for supercells, deep layer (0-6 km) shear is good/great, but low-level (0-1 km) is weak. So you can get intense supercells w/ a nasty mesocyclone at mid-levels, but no real signature for rotation or a TDS at low-levels, and thus no tors. I've seen storms like this before in the Plains, You'd think there would be at least be an organized wall cloud for such an intense mesocyclone aloft, but just ragged, disorganized scud. Yet the storm is dumping giant hail and has incredible structure! A rule of thumb I look at for a basic start for a decent tor day is winds at least 30 kt at 925 mb. That gets you you low-level speed shear, which is important. Next, is there any veering of the winds sfc to 850? Low-level directional shear is paramount, esp.for sig tors. Is there a warm front involved? We are taught the cold fronts are the big tstm producers, and they are, but some of best intense tornadic supercells are those that form on or very close to a warm front, and ride along it. Winds locally are backed at the sfc just ahead of a warm front, but veer quicky aloft, so localized shear/helicity can be much higher than the environmental shear/helicity. Typically in most supercells, the mesocyclone (lowest pressure), is at mid-levels, the if conditions are right, the low-levels can organize for solid rotation. The exception is for TC environments. Supercells are often very low-topped, (might not even be 15,000 ft!), and deep layer shear (0-6 km) is not that great, but low-level shear (0-1 km) is excellent,owing to the strongest winds in a TC often found 925 mb to just a few 100 ft above the sfc. So you can get tors in swarms (look at what the remains of Ivan did in VA in Sep 2004), but most are weak, even a higher percentage from their continental counterparts b/c you don't have much CAPE in a TC environment, so updraft acceleration typically can't support strong/intense tors.

A couple shots of the storm rolling in

skies starting to get dark again