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A good part of the FL PH could use the rain!

I think thick smoke can go both ways. On Tue, big time svr wx (best SCP and SIGTOR parameters I have seen in a long time in the Northeast), was completely squashed during the daylight hours at least. Otherwise there would likely have been a sig tor event in srn Quebec and nrn New England. Temps were held down a lot. BOS fcst high as 97, and high was only 90. PWM fcst high was 93, and only got to 85. This resulted in CINH remaining stronger over the entire area. However, ydy we saw a nasty back-building tstm training event in cntrl NJ. Wind gusts as high as 84 mph at Surf City and they also had 4.37" of rain. CG LTG was incredibly dense in a narrow swath. And these storm fired directly within the thick plume of smoke. One can say w/ high confidence the smoke in the Northeast was the cause for the svr wx bust here, but for what happened in NJ ydy? Not as clear. That would be a good case study/research item, re-run models w/o the smoke, and see if intense tstms would have occurred to the degree they did! The models for tomorrow have smoke in their initialization, unlike what happened on Tue in the Northeast, so it is accounted for. I am not impressed w/ the 18z HRRR storm coverage tomorrow over the region. 18z RRFS is a little better, and shows an isolated honkin' supercell just N of DC, but the 45% area for wind seems high for the DMV area to me given the *coverage* of storms fcst. This is important. The colored SPC outlooks areas are for expected svr wx type coverage, they say nothing about how intense any individual svr wx may be (the hatched areas show that) So they should be solid svr storms, just the real question is coverage overall. The thick smoke may be a factor here, but how much in either direction? We go from weak anticyclonic flow aloft today to solid cyclonic flow tomorrow w/ a s/w coming thru. 500 heights come down as well. But the NAM shows 500 temps actually increase a bit in the aftn, up to -4 C (yuck!). The GFS tho shows slight cooling from -5 C tdy to -6 C tomorrow. Also, the mid-level lapse rates are not as bad as you would think for such warm 500 mb temps. Looking at the NAM and GFS, it shows lapse rates as high as 7 C/km on the fcst soundings (not using 700-500 exactly here, any thick layer at mid-levels will do). Fcst K-indices in the area gets as high as 40 on both the NAM and GFS, and that is impressive. Juiced column for big rains! NAM has PWATs are high as 2.8" which is likely overdone. GFS has it as high as 2.5" which is good for this model (not usually that high)! Anything over 2" is more than enough. Since DCAPE is fcst high and 0-3 km CAPE low, tor threat seems minimized. 0-6 km shear 35-40 kt, so enough for supercells.

Stms moving through. Rains helping clear the air. Very nice break

I bet they're gonna fly:

Not as visible the last couple of years but you can still see traces.

COD: Satellite and Radar (Friday July 17, 2026 at 17:56 PM EST)

The smoke today smells worse than usual. The smoke I remember out west was a straight campfire smell. This smells like campfire mixed with New Jersey (a mix of burning rubber and bad BO).

As far as Gulfport, FL, this has already been the most exciting weather event since Milton.

Hugging the Herpderp. Other mesos look like shit.

Just missed here as well per usual with pop ups. Something about this location is no good for those.

Smoke will limit fuel - but there is a theory smoke can create its on low-level system to enhance a front. We’ll see!

You know it

yeah - i mean vis is a little better, smells gross out though.

this sucks

The ground smoke mixed out here hours ago too.

So, will tomorrow's high severe chances finally overcome the Tamaqua Split?

It's been raining and thundering the past hour with gusty winds and occasional heavy rainfall rates. Currently 70 with moderate rain.

Storms popping everywhere.

Just wanted to add for the Maryland folks. The Maryland Department of Environment has some real nerdy pollution meteorologists. Their forecasts are almost always spot on and they regularly coordinate with the various NWS offices. We're very fortunate to have these folks in our state!

Close to zero here to your south

Yes sir. 11Lbs short of a personal best, but I'll still take it at 44lbs. The past two trips my son has hooked something absolutely monstrous and it's thrown the hook both times. My son and I are on some really big fish at the moment and I think it's only a matter of a trip or two until we land something on a whole other level. We've had some opportunities at something special the last few trips but we just can't land it. I've been a few pounds short of the state record twice in the past 20 years when it was still down in the 50lbs range. Now that it's at sixty six pounds, and i'm fifty years old, the Flathead record is starting to become a tall order

Wisdom often comes with age compared to simpletons still wet behind the ears. Be patient, you will arrive at the wisdom stage much sooner than you think.

I was on a Lufthansa regional flight once from London to Munich… There had been a body-building competition and there were like a dozen absolutely massive human beings on the flight (all eating their Tupperware's of chicken and rice). They actually had to walk up and down the plane and redistribute the body builders throughout the plane before we could leave the gate. My buddy was like, dude, if we are so close to a limit that this airline official is walking the rows with a calculator and getting 300+ pound dudes to swap seats with petite women to even out the plane’s weight… like if that dude sits in 3A, this plane won’t get off the ground but if he’s in 36D we take flight… WTF, lol.

Thank you grandpa.

Doesn’t have to be an Iowa derecho just give me a GD thunderstorm