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Hey you can put me as tentative for now. Will try my best to make it, will depend on my workload.

It will be interesting to see if the models change any once more data from aircraft has been ingested into it mainly the handle of Baja and then northern stream

The I-85 corridor would be shut down for three weeks.

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). From MA forum. Game time tonight. We should get a real sense if there is a north trend or this was just a blip

Hey I resemble that remark!!! Just kidding. But seriously, yeah...I am surprised at least some of that crap wasn't moderated out of there. But maybe it's not technically yet a full-on "storm mode".

18z GFSes (total qpf) -

12z brought sleet to NYC and coast

That’s right and they don’t work and would be another terrible model miss if we turn into that . 1040 highs are hard to eradicate and this does not look like a deep low. We need it to just move east and let the waa into this cold air. I don’t care if a low ever forms on the coast but we certainly can’t have one at the PA/WV border

I went and grabbed some staple items from the store this evening. It wasn't that crowded, but you can tell people have already started to raid the shelves. Snack aisles definitely hit the hardest, so get your cheezits while you still can. I was also trying to buy for family that'll be coming to take care of our two kids while the 3rd makes his arrival. Kinda hard to shop for a snowstorm and for random family cooking. Hopefully my kids don't get tired of Mac n cheese, ground beef, and cereal

you have my attention

Pretty sure I just had a sleet/ rain mix @John1122 I think it was one of those onset mix precip type deals that changes to rain.

I guess the summary for HH GFS.... not gonna cut it

Hope you guys can get more folks together! I have dance dad duty on Thursdays or else I'd try to make it...

Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.

Gefs stays below freezing in valley pretty much whole time

gfs less consolidated/strung out and suppressed

Who is "Me" and where do they live? Never heard of them before.

SLEET BOMB!!!!

And that’s why it’s known as the GooFuS!

I’m not ruling out a s shift again. Who knows. BTW. Here are the 12z Ukmet ensembles

Speaking of ensembles, the 12z Canadians were in line with other ensembles too despite the operational.

Rare instance where the OP GFS will lead the ensembles, but the GFS has been all over the place so it's incredibly hard to trust no matter which way it goes. Frustrating model.

18z CMC only goes out to hr 84 but definitely more amped compared to 12z

Putting this here one more time before people make their plans tomorrow - planning to get to Succotash in DC around 5pm tomorrow to meet some folks. Totally accessible on every metro line. I’ll share my # with folks who are in tomorrow. Think right now it could be: Me @nj2va @yoda @nw baltimore wx @DownpourDave Happy to sit and drink a little and talk with whoever showed up - just spent a whole weekend with @katabatic so happy to meet more folks

We want that coastal cranking and a quick handoff.