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You think having unlimited reactions would be a mod perk amirite?

NAM surface at 75

there is a banter thread and I think debating opinions is fine - but draw the line at trying to bully someone telling them to stop posting or name calling

Who's right on the edge.... central NJ or the city or LI..... I'm 30 miles north of the CITY. So explain who you mean by WE ARE?

The GFS has not been good lately relative to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. I don't trust it at all, especially when it's an outlier. I like the ECM-AI as a model - it's a little less amped than the other 3 so it gives me some encouragement.

and 78

72 18z NAM

Slightly flatter look so far. Everything helps

NAM is going to be at least a SLIGHT improvement from what I've seen in the main thread

If the 0 degree line is hugging LI like that very good chance some sleet makes it into NYC/LI and even southern Westchester and Coastal CT. The models other than the NAM tend to underestimate sleet.

Ah that makes much more sense! So there's no slick editing team in the background "He's describing the convective potential - scroll a few times to the left or else he'll be pointing at the ocean. Wait now he's talking about to the warnings in Chelmsford, quick someone get that on stat!" Not anymore... I started lurking here when I was 10, 24 now. Hard to believe it's been over half my life.

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

We only have 0.5-1.0" on the ground.

Remember if you get a bad model run: 1. When is sampling? 2. That model has been terrible this season. 3. It has bias in that direction. 4. It injected bad data. 5. Point out the one run in the ensembles that buries you. feel free to add

This run is south of last run I believe will wait for the end.

18z

You have trails closed up there?

So far, looks slightly flatter out front and better confluence if anything

Chuck was comparing the 18z NAM to the 12z GFS, which is apples to oranges IMO but he isn't looking at what the rest of us are looking at...which explains the "what is he seeing" stuff. The 18z NAM is less phased and has more confluence in front than the 12z NAM through 60 hours.

Its the same with every storm, nothing is going to change this go around!

I would consider the Euro to be the upper limit of this...IF everything aligns there potential would be there for most of the sub to see a foot+, just not sure where. My main concern would actually be dry slotting and a potential messy handoff between the initial low and the coastal.

Still at 69hrs

I’ve used up all my reactions for today! I expect this to probably continue through Monday?

Don’t love that high placement. .

first of all we are right on the edge of the mixing line and its still 4 days away - so this is not set in stone