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Looks like May will be a loss for big heat.

that's twice in a week Spartman has quoted me:

Think there will be some convective elements near low center.

North trends FTW. Congrats Freak to Dendy

we even get a rotting deform band... just the wrong season

18z NAM is Vermont and NH gone

Looks better the further SE you go, more chance for breaks. Either way, the Rain is out of here by morning and temps in the low 60's by afternoon.

That would put me close to 6" (of rain) since this past Friday.

At least it's not cancer. Hope whatever you may have is readily treatable.

Saturday fine here after mid to late morning.

Another 2"+ for you. Congrats on a dry Spring.

Good keep trending it north and less rain SNE . Saturday looks good except E MA

After five days of clouds had an eight hour window of sun but clouds didn't waste any time returning

Hes excellent at cherry picking the most random things from xmacis. A random coop station in a middle of nowhere town with a population under 2K that is full of missing data and hasnt reported since 1988. If that isnt accuracy, I dont know what is.

What a disaster on the Euro for Saturday in NNE.

The first paper appears to be backing into the notion of expanding Hadley Cell. He does cite a source; "Trenberth and his co-authors in the Journal of Climate" I have not personally read Trenberth, et al, however ... I began observing this expanding phenomenon years and years ago myself actually. Really since 1998 to be honest.. but more so since the late aughts. I have since read of this (confirming) elsewhere. Supports grows in the compendium. It doesn't mean the Hadely Cell ( mean circulation ) is stronger, btw. Size and strength are not necessarily correlated in this sense. As an aside, as the circulation manifold grows, it's structure in fact has become less coherent and more nebular. Transient circulation anomalies with meanders and so forth. The termination of the HC circulation envelope is also not an identifiable boundary. It's a fade into the westerlies - above which is where the jet streams are located as we gain latitude, further north or south in each hemisphere. As the HC expands do to global CC, this was written as being primarily noticeable in the summer months but I have a problem with that assumption. One aspect about winters in recent decades, I have noticed the basal geostrophic flow velocities at mid level have been increasing in the middle troposphere. This can be corroborated by noted uptick in the number records set regarding air-land speed of intercontinental, west to east bound commercial flights, for example. Also, both modeling and observed incidences of 500 mb winds above 200 kts. etc... This can only happen because of gradient - to me, it is quite intuitive that as the HC expands, and the winter heights fall in the northern latitudes, the gradient anomaly would physically necessaritate speeding up the field. The aforementioned observations certainly fit that idea... So, I don't believe the HC is less expanded in the winters, so much as its geometry has been converted to energy in the form of speeding up the winter hemisphere. The Earth has a heat engine. As metaphor, a combustion engine converts chemical energy, to combustion energy, to mechanical energy, propelling a vehicle down the road. So of metaphor there. Speculation aside ...I don't have a problem with his assertion that the ocean temperatures, increasing at those mid latitudes, is because of the jets moving N/S - because I suspect the moving N/S and the HC expansion, are one in the same. That said, HC expanding would cause lengthier periods whence the SS wind stressing is less, thus causing less turbulent mixing - this would cause more heat to store in stratification ( possibly) in the top layer. It would also match the idea of these "oceanic heat waves" that have been observed with increasing frequency in recent years. As to the reaction by the latter author... I think perhaps if the original "hot take" ( lol ) had spent more time connecting the dots, the latter reader might have understood the causation - and not been so easily induced to pounce on the correlation.

I wonder if Viterbo understood the paper. Virerbo's focuses on wind speed but the paper finds that the jet stream shifted not that winds are increased. Winds decreased in the subtropics and tropics between the two jet streams. Viterbo's bottom chart covers a very small part of the world (39.5-40.5 N, 70W - 10W) so also doesn't shed much light on the paper imo. There's some validity to the narrow baseline period comment. That ia a consequence of the relatively short period studied, 2000-2023. Means that the results are affected by decade-to-decade natural variability. That isn't surprising. The strong rate of warming in a narrow latitude zone is unusual and needed unusual conditions to develop. Note that a competing explanation for the recent mid-latitude ocean warming is a decrease in aerosol emissions.

Thanks, Ray. I also wonder about CC’s effect. -Don’t forget 2009-10 -Including March actually brings 2012-13 into the list due to the -1.61 in March making DM average -0.39 -Including March would take 2020-1 out for me because DM averaged only -0.14, which I call neutral -Based on DJF, I have 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2020-21. Based on DJFM, I have 2000-01, 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2012-13.

Some sort of system off of the Southeast coast early next week. Have to see how far north it comes.

how can it get to 110% is the 10% extra if it overflows?

Tomorrow night could turn into a soaker east of the main stem Susquehanna:

they are overflowing? how does it get over 100%?

https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1920194735018303931?t=7VPaYVaxrwTaqUYrZpfkRQ&s=19 Confirmed Tornado

The weather today is sublime for May. My walk this morning was 3.28 miles of bliss. I will enjoy every second before the heat and humidity rears its ugly head in a month.

Does this bleed over into other NCEP models as well? NAM, CFS, RAP? If so, going to make forecasting the rest of chase season a b****.