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thats ballsy. But I like it. They have to be factoring in some of the slightly colder solutions

Right, good point. Mainly, I was just surprised how cold it was at H85 that far southwest…which I didn’t expect to see. My hope is that strange things could happen with a gradient like that.

In the pro's we trust!

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9? It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it? lol

When viewing snow maps from more than 12 hours out, see my avatar for guidance.

Good to see so many reputable sources so bullish with their opening predictions. I was shocked to see CTP's initial map. Just wow. I love where we sit and see no way we can't win big with what we have diving into this airmass. With that said, there's one small thing I can't totally discount, and that is how many times over the years I've seen occasions where the globals, even in their wheelhouse range, aren't able to pick up on the extent of the intrusion of sneaky warm layers aloft. Then we get inside of like 36-48 hours and the NAM, HRRR, and the gang start to show sleet in places you'd never expect it. Next thing you know, during the height of the storm we're "tainting" as @pasnownut would say, and what was thought to be an epic storm turns into just a nice storm. I just can't shake that thought given some of the globals are already showing it nearby, which is crazy to have to worry about when we're talking about temps in the teens for most of the duration of the event. I know we're still looking at a beautiful front-end thump but I'll be keeping a close eye on the Mesos as they come into range. Let's keep that primary Low at bay, shall we. Despite all that, let's pile it up boys! Next stop, 18z NAM. Onward.

MT. Holly still pretty aggressive in their update.

Are most of y’all also having major issues with accessing certain wx sites thanks to the extreme wx? I’m not just talking about NOAA sites, which I haven’t been able get to at all all day.

Transcription (OCR) SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1512Z THU JAN 22 2026 MDS STATUS... GOES-E MDS Sector 1 will be centered over 33.7N/104.1W from 23/0600Z to 24/1200Z in support of winter wx ops across portions of the Southwest. 12Z UPDATED RAOB RECAP... 70133/OTZ - 10159.. 70200/OME - 10159.. 70308/SNP - 10159.. 70326/AKN - 10159.. 72274/TWC - 10159.. 72363/AMA - 10159.. 72582/LKN - 10159.. 72597/MFR - 10159.. 72776/TFX - 10159.. 72785/OTX - 10159.. 91165/LIH - 10159.. 91285/ITO - 10159.. 72202/MFL - No report.. 72215/FFC - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72240/LCH - No report.. 72251/CRP - No report.. 72365/ABQ - No report.. 72476/GJT - No report.. 72493/OAK - No report.. 72558/OAX - No report.. 72562/LBF - No report.. 72634/APX - No report for NAM.. in for GFS. 72645/GRB - No report.. 72662/UNR - No report.. 72797/UIL - No report.. 74455/DVN - No report.. 72393/VBG - Missing TTAA for NAM.. in for GFS. Green/SDM/NCO/NCEP What This Message Means (Plain English) 1. Who sent this Issued by a Senior Duty Meteorologist at NWS / NCEP Central Operations (College Park, MD). These are internal operational coordination messages, not public forecasts. 2. MDS Status (Satellite Operations) GOES‑East (GOES‑E) Mesoscale Domain Sector 1 is being repositioned. Center point: 33.7°N / 104.1°W Roughly eastern New Mexico / west Texas Time window: Start: 23 Jan 2026 at 0600Z End: 24 Jan 2026 at 1200Z Purpose: To support winter weather operations across parts of the Southwest. Meaning: Enhanced satellite resolution and faster scans focused on an active winter weather area. 3. 12Z Updated RAOB Recap RAOB = Radiosonde Observation (weather balloon data) 12Z = 12:00 UTC model initialization time Stations Reporting Successfully Stations listed with 10159: Indicates data received and processed normally. Includes sites such as: OTZ (Kotzebue) OME (Nome) AMA (Amarillo) OTX (Spokane) LIH / ITO (Hawaii) Stations with Missing or Partial Data “No report” No usable balloon data received at all. “No report for NAM.. in for GFS” Data missed the NAM model cutoff Still available for the GFS model “Missing TTAA” TTAA = mandatory upper‑air pressure data codes Missing critical sounding levels for NAM ingest These data gaps can: Reduce short‑range model accuracy (especially NAM) Impact local forecast confidence during active weather 4. Why This Matters Operationally Balloon data and focused satellite coverage are critical during winter weather events Missing soundings can affect: Snowfall totals Ice forecasts Placement of frontal boundaries That’s why this message highlights: Where enhanced satellite support is active Which stations did or did not report

NAM was always considered the best with thermals. I would pay attention to the NAM, HRRR, and some of the hi-res runs once we're inside of 60 hours when it comes to sleet vs ZR. It's really impossible to say at this point. There will, however, be an area that get's screwed with mostly ZR, on the periphery of the sleet area. I'm thinking that will likely be NE GA, N SC, and eastern NC.

Extremely confused by rain likely at 15 degrees.

Will become wetter before any mixing but will start very light and fluffy due to the very cold temps

It would seem, with all the computing power availible out there today they could make a snowfall algorithm that actually works. Instead we have 10:1 maps and Kuchara maps. 10:1 Maps: Heavy sleet for a few hours, you get a foot of snow. Kuchara Maps: 0.12" qpf with a temp of 6F, 100:1 ratios, you get a foot of snow. Both algorithms clearly are going to exagerate totals in this case. There could and should be something better.

that's aggressive

I have always assumed it counts sleet because sleet counts as snow (for reporting purposes)

Someone tell WRAL. At least this morning they were saying all freezing rain.

Good point...yeah the arctic plunge part of this does add more to the equation

Yeah it was heavily downplayed near the coast but just inland a bit they were going big, I think for Philly and BWI the forecast was pretty big, the big issues with people being surprised were centered around NYC metro.

NWS likes to put the higher end potential then adjust down rather than the other way around. Still time for colder adjustments.

Wonder if they're including an estimated sleet accumulation on top of whatever snow in that total, that map goes through Sunday evening.

ah I thought I saw a map that had 39 inches that was posted- my fault

If we get 8" plus tons of sleet and temps not hitting freezing all week...wouldn't shock me if most systems are closed most of the week.

Same. Very aggressive. Especially SNJ. Again, they know what they are doing.