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.89" of rainfall.

Regardless of the total picture, there exists absolutely astronomical, extraordinarily high potential during shorter intervals that belies what should be a mild seasonal mean....the devil is in the details and it's easy to miss the period when all hell broke loose when you only view a snapshot composite of a winter's life. Almost akin to considering a middle-aged guy like me....46 yrs, old, decent career, 4 beautiful children and an aggregate of circumstances that embodies a ho-hum mid-life...sure, but when viewing that 46-year old composite mean, it's easy to miss the US Marine that collected 2 OUIs and came within a toad's whisker of having it all end long before any of my kids were even so much as a glint in my eye.

It’s an ominous sky out there right now

September 3 1989: An early afternoon thunderstorm dropped 1 3/4 inch hail in Stearns and Morrison Counties. 1980: An F2 tornado results in $2.5 million in property damage, followed by an F3 tornado causing $25 million in damages in Stearns County. 1970: The record-setting hailstone fell that made Coffeyville, KS famous. It had a circumference of 17.5 inches and weighed 1.67 pounds. 1917: An earthquake is felt from Staples to Brainerd. For Thursday, September 3, 2026 1821 - A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut. The hurricane produced a record tide at New York City. (David Ludlum) 1953 - The temperature at Erie PA reached 99 degrees, and Stroudsburg PA established a state record for September with a reading of 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1961 - Denver, CO, received 4.2 inches of snow, their earliest snow of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1970 - During the early evening hours, in the midst of a severe hailstorm at Coffeyville KS, a stone 17.5 inches in circumference and nearly two pounds in weight was recovered. It was the largest measured hailstone in U.S. weather records. Average stone size from the storm was five inches in diameter, with another stone reportedly eight inches in diameter. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Temperatures dipped into the 40s and 50s for morning lows across much of the eastern half of the country, with eleven cities reporting record lows for the date. Pellston MI tied Gunnison CO for honors as the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Smoke from forest fires darkened skies in southern Oregon and northern California. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sixteen cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 89 degrees at Stampede Pass WA and 116 degrees at Redding CA established records for the month of September. Readings of 98 degrees at Spokane WA and 100 degrees at Yakima WA equalled records for September. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Nebraska during the day and evening. Evening thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Valentine and Gretna, and produced baseball size hail at Lewellen. Thunderstorms in Arizona produced 2.20 inches of rain in forty minutes at Green Valley, and wind gusts to 60 mph. Eight cities in Texas and Florida reported record high temperatures for the date, including Victoria TX and San Antonio TX, each with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 3 Thu Signing of the Treaty of Paris 3 Thu National Skyscraper Day 3 Thu National Welsh Rarebit Day 3 Thu Skyscraper Day 3 Thu US Bowling League Day

Good sleeping weather. I hope we can at least get some thunder. That's been missing lately. Had a few good boomers this summer though. But just a few.

The HRRR has that MCS is central PA dying before it gets to the CWA, after that today looks mostly dry on the models. The mesos brings more overnight convection in though tonight. More scattered convection possible on friday as well before a beautiful weekend kicks off. Seriously should be one of the nicest labor day weekends in recent memory.

We'll get our fun when we get those trusty El Niño Nor'Easters! hehe

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1993) NYC: 99 (1929) LGA: 95 (1993) JFK: 93 (2015) Lows: EWR: 51 (1967) NYC: 50 (1893) LGA: 54 (1967) JFK: 62 (1967) Historical: 1815: A powerful hurricane made landfall near Swansboro, NC. Damage was extensive at Onslow with great loss of life. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut. The hurricane produced a record tide at New York City. An account from the Norfolk Herald described the storm as such..... From half past 11:00 until half past 12:00, so great the fury of the elements, that they seemed to threaten a general demolition of everything within their reach. During that period the scene was awful. There was the deafening roar of the storm, with the mingled crashing of windows and falling of chimneys, while the rapid rise of the tide threatened to inundate the town. The continuous cataracts of rain swept impetuously along darkening the expanse of vision and apparently confounding the heaven, earth and seas in a general chaos; together with now and then a glimpse caught through the gloom, of shipping forced from their moorings and driven with rapidity, as the mind might well conjecture in such a circumstance to inevitable destruction. (David Ludlum) The following is an account of what happened next from Howard Pyles, writtings: "...then a dull roar came nearer and nearer, and suddenly a solid mass of wind and rain and salt spray leaped upon the devoted island with a scream. Great pines bent for a moment, then, groaning and shrieking, were torn from their centuried growth like wisps of straw and hurled one against another; houses were cut from their foundations and thrown headlong; and then a deeper roar swelled the noise of the tempest, and a monstrous wall of inky waters rushed with the speed of lightning toward the island. It struck Assateague, and in a moment half the land was a waste of seething foam and tossing pine trunks; and the next instant it struck Chincoteague, and in an unbroken mass swept away men and ponies like insects; rushing up the island, tearing its way through the stricken pine woods." (Barnes & Truitt) At Pungoteage, a ten foot storm surge led to "unexampled destruction". Damage spread north with the storm into New York and New England over succeeding days. It was considered one of the most violent hurricanes on record... with damage totaling $200,000 in Virginia. Five drowned at Chincoteague. (Ref. for Long Island Hurricane of 1821) 1821 - A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut. The hurricane produced a record tide at New York City. (David Ludlum) 1821: Known as the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane, this storm ripped up the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast September 3 and 4 – coinciding with Labor Day (before the holiday was established). 1834: A strong hurricane made landfall near Georgetown, South Carolina. 1909: 48 °F in Washington, DC the first temperature of the season that was below 50 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1930: A Category 4 hurricane devastates the Dominican Republic on this day. This storm killed more than 8,000 individuals, which is it the fifth deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. 1933: On this date through the 4th, there was extensive property damage on Florida's east coast from Vero Beach to West Palm Beach due to a landfalling hurricane. A few houses were destroyed and a number blown off their blocks. More than four million boxes of citrus were blown from the trees statewide. The property loss ran into the millions. Two deaths were attributed to storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1953 - The temperature at Erie PA reached 99 degrees, and Stroudsburg PA established a state record for September with a reading of 106 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1961 - Denver, CO, received 4.2 inches of snow, their earliest snow of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1970 - During the early evening hours, in the midst of a severe hailstorm at Coffeyville KS, a stone 17.5 inches in circumference and nearly two pounds in weight was recovered. It was the largest measured hailstone in U.S. weather records. Average stone size from the storm was five inches in diameter, with another stone reportedly eight inches in diameter. (David Ludlum) 1972: Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West before recurving to the northeast. The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego, CA with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains from this day through 9/6. This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California. This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: A strong Canadian air mass brought an early taste of Autumn extending the Plains to the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley. The earliest freeze on record in Sioux Falls, SD recorded their earliest freeze on record when they dropped to 31°. Other record lows included: North Platte, NE: 26°, St. Cloud, MN: 27°, Bismarck, ND: 28°, Valentine, NE: 30°, Aberdeen, SD: 31°, Huron, SD: 31°, Duluth, MN: 32 °F.(Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1977: A 19-year-old hitch-hiker was struck and killed by lightning while leaning against a metal road sign on the southbound ramp of I-81 in Staunton, VA . Another person was injured. Witnesses said that there was no rain falling at the time and described the lightning bolt as having come "out of clear skies". In actuality, it came from a nearby thunderstorm. Also on this day in Poquoson, near hampton, Virginia around 6:20 PM, a man was struck and injured outside his home. During the period 1995 through 2000, there were seven lightning fatalities, 54 injuries and $6.5 million in damage, according to Storm Data. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1979: Hurricane David made landfall in south Florida as a Category 2 storm. It caused 15 deaths in the US. Hurricane David was a Category 5 over the Dominican Republic were over 2,000 people died. 1987 - Temperatures dipped into the 40s and 50s for morning lows across much of the eastern half of the country, with eleven cities reporting record lows for the date. Pellston MI tied Gunnison CO for honors as the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Smoke from forest fires darkened skies in southern Oregon and northern California. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sixteen cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 89 degrees at Stampede Pass WA and 116 degrees at Redding CA established records for the month of September. Readings of 98 degrees at Spokane WA and 100 degrees at Yakima WA equalled records for September. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Nebraska during the day and evening. Evening thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Valentine and Gretna, and produced baseball size hail at Lewellen. Thunderstorms in Arizona produced 2.20 inches of rain in forty minutes at Green Valley, and wind gusts to 60 mph. Eight cities in Texas and Florida reported record high temperatures for the date, including Victoria TX and San Antonio TX, each with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2002: A prolonged summer drought in southern Illinois gradually worsened, becoming severe by early September. Crop loss estimates totaled around $53 million dollars. The corn crop, which was especially susceptible to the combined effects of heat and drought, took the biggest hit. The remnants of Tropical Storm Isidore provided much-needed heavy rainfall late in September. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2007: Key West, Florida: Key West records a record high reading of 95°F. This event is the first occurrence of a 95 °F or higher reading since August 1957. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2016: Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall in Florida on Friday, September 2, 2016 at 7:26 PM - as a Category 1 hurricane early Friday, leaving one dead and causing severe coastal damage in its wake. Hermine was the first hurricane to make landfall in the state since Wilma struck 11 years ago. It was only a Cat-1 hurricane but the rain in NC set the stage for a Major Flood with Matthew in October. 58,000 without power in Hampton Roads, Virginia The main problems in the Virginia Beach area was flooding

74/ 71 plenty of clouds and earlier forecasts for less cloud not verifying. Warm and humid and with enough sun some of the hotter places could sneak in a 90 especially inland in NJ. After some showrs/rain on Friday and onshore Labor day extended weekend. A bit of a mix on the models through and beyond mid month would go overall near normal and see if the ridge and any associated heat come north with it days to watch for a quick surge of heat would be in the other than today , 9/10 / 9/12 and after mid month but tendency is staying south.

I know everyone is different. The dew point is too high for me to consider it pleasant.

there are more than 1,500 guests logged in, most of which visited the main forum page within the last 1/2 hour ? curious

Definitely the rub ... whether ENSO is related or not, that 'bleeding into AK' is often a torpedo, and it's useful to note too because the model handling of the GOA is idiosyncratic; it's positive or negative interference in the actual state sends mid and extended range error. Smaller GOA errors in position seems toward a higher sensitive and a larger total response in whether cold conveyors orient more S or ... more importantly for cold/winter enthusiasts, deflects more E across the Canadian northern tier - regardless of CPF of or not. The latter aspect of La Nina hangover episodes is interesting, though. The whole RONI aspect is also relevant here.

just give up on our disappearing season and embrace the lengthening one

I had one or two thunder/lightning Sunday night; that it.

suffer

I just consider June 1 - Sept. 30 to be met summer now here. September as a fall month is gone.

I swear it's been thundering constantly for the last 36 hours. For dogs who hate thunder and have no concept of time, this is probably what living in the Balkans in the 90s was like.

Usually in a warm ENSO of this magnitude, the GOA low is so prominent that it often bleeds into AK in the mean, so the season ends up predominately +EPO....BUT, one wild card is how that residual cool ENSO residue across the north Pacific parlays this season....yea, it will probably augment the Canadian ridge, but might it also mitigate the lower height leakage into AK, and potentially not bury the STJ quite as much as would be implied by the HOF-juggernaut El Nino composite?? Interesting....

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh ho man

Round 3 looking lock and loaded for later this morning...

Yea, that is what I figured he meant. I don't think we'll see that in the mean, but definitely possible for shorter windows.

71F/DP 71F w/the sun breaking out. This air mass sucks. BUT < 20 days....

Yep...shifting to Hockey, football and Hoops. Don't forget Premier league too.