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Looks like its re-intensifying... hail core has reappeared

Mesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Virginia and northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222202Z - 230030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage while spreading eastward into this evening. The primary concern is locally damaging wind gusts. While a watch is not currently expected, trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the Blue Ridge in western VA, potentially aided by increasing midlevel height falls preceding a broad midlevel trough approaching the region from the west. Over the next few hours, these storms should continue spreading eastward across western/central VA and northern NC. A warm, moist, and uncapped air mass downstream should support a modest increase in thunderstorm coverage. While midlevel lapse rates are limiting overall buoyancy (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), an elongated midlevel hodograph (40 kt of 0-6 km shear per FCX VWP) could promote a few loosely organized clusters capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall risk may remain too localized/sparse for a watch, trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 36568122 36908125 37628037 38057977 38737887 39377837 39447792 39237739 38807712 38207722 36967810 36137933 35987997 36008043 36298116 36568122 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

The CFS has been remarkably consistent in suggesting Feb and March will hold the best chance for cold and a big winter storm. Dec h5 pattern looks very mild with PAC puke look, and Jan might trend colder towards the end. Not surprising that the latter part of winter has the best potential to deliver when the Nino may relax a bit/ max SST anomalies shift more westward. All fwiw ofc. Pretty nice looks here. Should be just cold enough a time or two as the key features shift/ align in a favorable configuration.

Wouldnt trust them especially with timing Seemed to have struggled with this system ever since Thursday

What the... what is this Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 614 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 WVC027-031-222245- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0435.000000T0000Z-260822T2245Z/ Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 614 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES... At 613 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 14 miles southeast of Romney, moving east at 10 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Rio, Yellow Spring, Delray, and Capon Springs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3913 7869 3920 7867 3926 7846 3912 7845 3911 7848 3910 7850 TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 273DEG 8KT 3917 7861 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Prettymuch solid cloud cover over southern half of New England, but the sinking air produced a ribbon of clearing north of the mountains: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=01&length=36&dim=1

That cell west of winchester means business

New apartment in mt. pleasant, 3rd floor balcony with a due west view is pretty nice, will try and share as many (compressed) flicks as I can on here this year

Sure is extremely workable for the interior of NE Siberia...

Yup, misery mist started around noon, lasted all afternoon until 5 when we had a steady light rain…So much for mowing the lawn this weekend

Parts of the region will see some showers or thundershowers tonight into the first half of tomorrow. Afterward, clouds will break and the mercury rise toward 80° tomorrow. Monday through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.316 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Picked up .07 of no rain today. Of course it stops after done moving in . After the disaster Needless to say , this was jacked and cranked up all the way home from Uconn . Like legit cranked ..

My 2011 Ranger's automatic transmission broke last summer. Then I learned that 2009-11 Rangers with 2.3 engine and auto tranny tended to break at about 150k. Mine broke at 163+, and all those broken transmissions made replacements rarer than hen's teeth, with a huge price attached. Sold it to someone who wanted the engine (which still ran just fine). Would love to find another, as I've driven the little trucks since 1994. 5-speed preferred. Forecast here has revised the 60-70% PoPs to 40%. Maybe we get the grass wet.

Nice summer day we have. April misery mist.

Scooter knew.

Yes. We may have examples of blowtorch winter months working out, but overall how often does that actually happen? I’m not insulated from a disaster up here, though it’s obvious not as precarious as being down in the CTRV.

30% chance rn all day and not a drop. Same for tomorrow yet local met saying 0.25". Whats up with the modeling, lost track of how many rain days we were supposed to get last few wks Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Also i wouldn’t be surprised to see an outrageously warm winter month, talking +10. I’m hoping that is December, willing to sacrifice that month for a better Jan-Feb

frd did a good job covering what to watch for. Only thing I would add is the STJ. If we get a decent amount of coastal storms, and we’re AN in precipitation from Sept-Nov, that’s another sign.

Severe thunderstorm watch just for hail and wind no tornado threat issued for north middle tn south ky diagonally there’s also a decent supercell in the western part of southeast ky .

3rd straight day of <-30 SOI 22 Aug 2026 1013.39 1016.75 -30.23 -19.36 -22.39 21 Aug 2026 1013.48 1017.25 -32.71 -18.78 -22.41 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25

I would speculate - the PDO starting to rise in Sept and continuing to rise at a decent clip in Oct./Nov. A weaker early season PV accompanied by a general cycle trend down with the AO all through the Fall. Above normal North American Snow extent through Sept to Dec. Signs that might indicate -NAO during the winter, I defer to Chuck on this one Watch the East based Nino regions, could overwhelm all 3 above items.

There we go. Thank you Maggie Valley Steve.

What a complex off the NC coast. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 I am still expecting some sun in the next couple hours in my area.