NNE Thread

[J.Spin]

Roger also spoke about the upcoming events for this weekend; he was going with a 1 to 3 inch event for Saturday, and a 2 to 4 inch event for Sunday/Monday.

I just checked in on the latest discussion at BTV, and their thoughts are for three snowfall events for around here through the short term, with the first one today. They seem to line up as follows:

Saturday: 1” – 3”

Sunday: 1” – 3”

Monday: 1” – 4”

I’ve added the related BTV discussion text below:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SATURDAY...ACTIVE WX THRU THE NEAR/SHORT TERM
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. FIRST SYSTEM TDY INVOLVES UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LKS REGION. LGT SNOW IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS. DO EXPECT THIS
TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HRS...PEAKING THRU
EARLY AFTNOON AS MDLS BRING TROUGH THRU THE AREA. SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL GREATEST OVER HIR TRRN WHERE QPF CORRESPONDS TO
1-3"...AND A DUSTING TO 2" OVER VALLEY LOCALES ESPECIALLY IN
CVLY/CT RIVER VALLEY. 850 TEMPS WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE U20S TO
AROUND 30F FOR TDY. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP/CLDS ON IR SAT LOOP WILL
MEAN CLRING FOR TNGT(HIGH PRESSURE...ALBEIT WK). CAA WILL SUPPORT
GOING WITH MAV NUMBERS VS MET FOR LOWS...WHICH MEANS BLW ZERO
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF CWA. INCR MID/HIGH CLDS WITH NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS
MORNING WILL HELP TO LIMIT PUSH FOR SUB-ZERO LOWS THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SATURDAY...FOR THE SHORT TERM...SUN/MON WILL HAVE
2 QUICK MVG SYSTEMS COINCIDING WITH FRNTL BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP
OVER N PORTIONS OF CWA LATE SUNDAY. MDLS BRING FIRST SHORTWAVE
INTO THE CWA BY SUN MORNING...ALLOWING FOR LGT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CWA BY SUN AFTNOON. MDL TRACK WILL HIGHLIGHT
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA FOR BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUM. 1-3"
POTENTIAL...WITH HIR TOTALS OVER HIR TRRN. MONDAY SYSTEM A BIT
MORE POTENT...MVG INTO CWA QUICKLY ON EXITING SUNDAY SYSTEM VIA
FRNTL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR SIMILAR TRACK AS WITH PREV SYSTEM.
SYSTEM WILL BRING LGT SNOW ALL DAY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...W/
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUM NEAR 1-4"...WITH LESSER AMTS SOUTH.
BY NIGHTFALL...AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
AREA..ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF N CWA.

[J.Spin]

Snowing lightly but steadily here at Topnotch on the Mountain Road in Stowe... orographic in nature as snow increases as you head towards Mansfield. Roads dusted up, maybe a 1/4" on the cars so far but flake size has increased nicely.

Mansfield is hidden behind its white wall of falling snow.

I was surprised that nothing was falling here when I looked at the Intellicast and Weather Underground radars, but I just looked out and we've got snow now down the floor of the Winooski Valley; it must have started within the past 15 minutes. Flakes are currently in the 1-3 mm range.

[Allenson]

Clouded right over now and all the way up to 21F with steady light snow falling.....

[MaineJayhawk]

I'm about to reach for the towel for this clipper. All guidance is pointing north. Still a couple days left, but the writing is on the e-wall.

[tamarack]

Cloudy and about 16 at 10 AM IMBY. It was -5 at 7 AM, and a bit lower late last evening before the clouds arrived. Had -18 yest, 3rd lowest of the winter.

06z gfs bumped qpf to 0.3" for the Mon event, had been .2-.25" before so not much change, but a tleast in the right direction. There was also something interesting way out to day 7-8, as the mini (I hope) thaw is fading.

[amarshall]

Hit and miss flurries at Sunday river. Awesome day on the mountain

[Ginx snewx]

Hit and miss flurries at Sunday river. Awesome day on the mountain

Heavy heavy jealousy, fantastic up there.enjoy

[Lava Rock]

Hit and miss flurries at Sunday river. Awesome day on the mountain

was skiing yesterday there. great day. small crowds.

[powderfreak]

Heavy snow squall just moved through and dropped almost a half inch in 20 minutes. Off and on snow showers have ruled the day though accumulations have remained 1" or less. It snows and accumulates, then stops and the fresh dusting evaporates or melts off the roads, then it snows again and does the same thing. Overall, a great winter day and the out-of-towners are loving the "mood snow."

Here's the radar of the squall that just moved through... fairly low visibility there for a little bit and I'm sure it was at least 1/4 mile, maybe less in the heart of the squall.

[powderfreak]

Heavy heavy jealousy, fantastic up there.enjoy

You gotta get up to northern VT where the real snow is

Over 40" in the past 10 days on Mansfield and the mountain has been in its snow cloud all day long. Skiing is as good as it gets right now on the East Coast. Just powder, powder, and more powder. Trees caked in snow, 6-7 feet of snowpack high on the mountain, tree wells that could swallow you whole, and absolutely no crusts throughout the entire snowpack.

[powderfreak]

Here are some snowy scenes from yesterday...

Driving up the Mountain Road yesterday morning made the second day in a row where an overnight squall left some fresh snow, followed by bluebird skies first thing in the morning.

Winter in the northern Green Mountains...

Snow coverage on the mountain is pretty good, haha. In the summer time there are two *huge* boulders here (friend is standing on one), but with a 6-7 foot snowpack in here, the boulders are mere bumps in the terrain.

The clipper trended north again, so it appears as though this went from a 3-5" event to a 1-2" event.

I do like the upslope signal on the backend of the clipper though... winds rip NW for a time with some left-over synoptic moisture so it wouldn't surprise me if we got almost nothing from the WAA part of the clipper, but then pick up several inches from NW-flow orographics behind it.

[Tom MA wx]

Wow! It looks awesome up there. Stowe is definitely the best mountain/ski town in New England. I'm gonna be heading up there in about a week (20th to 22rd). Hopefully this two day thaw doesn't ice the mountain up too bad. Cant wait!

Here are some snowy scenes from yesterday...

Driving up the Mountain Road yesterday morning made the second day in a row where an overnight squall left some fresh snow, followed by bluebird skies first thing in the morning.

Winter in the northern Green Mountains...

Snow coverage on the mountain is pretty good, haha. In the summer time there are two *huge* boulders here (friend is standing on one), but with a 6-7 foot snowpack in here, the boulders are mere bumps in the terrain.

The clipper trended north again, so it appears as though this went from a 3-5" event to a 1-2" event.

I do like the upslope signal on the backend of the clipper though... winds rip NW for a time with some left-over synoptic moisture so it wouldn't surprise me if we got almost nothing from the WAA part of the clipper, but then pick up several inches from NW-flow orographics behind it.

[dendrite]

29.9F with a -SHSN

[powderfreak]

Wow! It looks awesome up there. Stowe is definitely the best mountain/ski town in New England. I'm gonna be heading up there in about a week (20th to 22rd). Hopefully this two day thaw doesn't ice the mountain up too bad. Cant wait!

Shoot me a Private Message a day or two before you show up and I'll let you know where the best snow is on the mountain... I can point you in the right direction so you don't have to waste your time finding the goods. Right now its all skiing great, but I too am curious to see how the conditions evolve after this mini-thaw. Its a shame because there is no ice on the hill right now; the lack of a major winter rain (knock on wood) so far has kept the usual Ice Coast, err East Coast, conditions at bay.

26F

SNSH

[borderwx]

back to 16F and heavy snow. squalls on/off all day, getting 1/2 to 1 inch deposits with each. skied up to 3400' today, its amazing to see the transformation from hunting season woods to mid winter, always an incredible difference, didn't dig a bench today as I was solo, but skiing over tree tops is never a normal feeling.

[Tom MA wx]

Shoot me a Private Message a day or two before you show up and I'll let you know where the best snow is on the mountain... I can point you in the right direction so you don't have to waste your time finding the goods. Right now its all skiing great, but I too am curious to see how the conditions evolve after this mini-thaw. Its a shame because there is no ice on the hill right now; the lack of a major winter rain (knock on wood) so far has kept the usual Ice Coast, err East Coast, conditions at bay.

26F

SNSH

Haha, yeah hopefully you can avoid the "East Coast conditions" and get some snow after the potential thaw. I'll remember to PM you, thanks.

[powderfreak]

Looks like we have one more squall-like line coming through before it starts to settle down. Nice wintry day of snow showers and squalls. Snow here is just starting to pick up again... looks like J.Spin's area is getting hit hard right now with some 30dbz stuff moving in.

Hopefully this last band blows up again as it lifts over Mansfield and the Green Mtn Spine.

...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN

ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER

OF VERMONT THROUGH 600 PM TONIGHT. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF

VERMONT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE INTENSE...REDUCING

VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AND PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF

SNOW. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THESE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WILL

ONLY BE IN THE 15 MINUTE RANGE BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS...

THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS...USE

CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[dryslot]

Yup. Jayhawk, I'm taking your prediction to the bank.

Via snowmobile. Riding the Andy Santerre charity run today up here.

Wonder where old Drydude is riding today?

Also, -28f in Van Halen yesterday just up Rt#1 from me. -11 here last night.

One of the great things about snow up here- what we get we keep.

Vim Toot!

Local, Naples snowfest, Sabattus snowfest..toot

[powderfreak]

back to 16F and heavy snow. squalls on/off all day, getting 1/2 to 1 inch deposits with each. skied up to 3400' today, its amazing to see the transformation from hunting season woods to mid winter, always an incredible difference, didn't dig a bench today as I was solo, but skiing over tree tops is never a normal feeling.

We were talking about this yesterday on the hill... the krumholtz/stunted trees way up high are now getting buried as the snowfields grow bigger. Each snowfall now, the next layer/height of trees disappears and the snowfields get bigger, haha.

Also, there's so much snow in the woods now that you can literally just ski over all the smaller evergreens because they all have mushroom caps of like several feet of snow on them. Of course, below the alpine zone, there are still the 30-40 foot mature trees that tower above, but almost all the under-story is now buried so the forests look wide-open.

[sankaty]

Planning to go up to Sugarbush on Monday. The clipper has trended so far north that the forecast now has a chance of light rain mixing in with the snow for a couple of hours on the mountain. The precip should be very light, and there is still some question as to whether it will happen at all, but I'm wondering how a touch of liquid could affect conditions. Should I worry about crust/icing, or will an hour or so of light drizzle not have much affect? Mostly wondering about the ungroomed slopes (bumps and trees).

Thanks for any info from the NNE skiers out there.

[powderfreak]

Planning to go up to Sugarbush on Monday. The clipper has trended so far north that the forecast now has a chance of light rain mixing in with the snow for a couple of hours on the mountain. The precip should be very light, and there is still some question as to whether it will happen at all, but I'm wondering how a touch of liquid could affect conditions. Should I worry about crust/icing, or will an hour or so of light drizzle not have much affect? Mostly wondering about the ungroomed slopes (bumps and trees).

Thanks for any info from the NNE skiers out there.

I did notice that BTV put a chance of rain/snow in there but IMO there's no way it anything liquid falls in the mountains/ski areas. I could maybe see a rain shower or rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley where elevations are below 500ft, but no way at the ski areas. Maybe a very, very slight chance of a sprinkle on the mountain (which wouldn't effect conditions at all), but that would mean a thick above freezing layer up into the 3,000ft+ range and I don't see that happening. Of course, as soon as precipitation became steady or hard enough to damage the snowpack, it would flip to snow.

Honestly I think the chance of liquid is near zero above 1,000ft... and even in the Champlain Valley I think its pretty low, but could see the valley being rain during light precipitation and snow during any heavier precipitation.

[powderfreak]

SN/+SN and windy.

Cars have a nice fresh coating on them, road is snow covered, and traffic is moving very slowly on the Mountain Road right now.

Good ol' fashion snow squalls.

J.Spin down to Mreaves' area looks to be taking the brunt of this squall line though.

[powderfreak]

Holy moly is it windy out there as this squall is ending... power flickered and the trees are getting worked. Can hear the wind whipping around the building... I'd be curious to know what we are gusting right now.

[sankaty]

I did notice that BTV put a chance of rain/snow in there but IMO there's no way it anything liquid falls in the mountains/ski areas. I could maybe see a rain shower or rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley where elevations are below 500ft, but no way at the ski areas. Maybe a very, very slight chance of a sprinkle on the mountain (which wouldn't effect conditions at all), but that would mean a thick above freezing layer up into the 3,000ft+ range and I don't see that happening. Of course, as soon as precipitation became steady or hard enough to damage the snowpack, it would flip to snow.

Honestly I think the chance of liquid is near zero above 1,000ft... and even in the Champlain Valley I think its pretty low, but could see the valley being rain during light precipitation and snow during any heavier precipitation.

Thanks for the response! The 18Z NAM does have H850 temps briefly getting to .8 C at MVL and 1.9C at MPV. Looks like the GFS has something similar, though it's hard to tell because the time series is courser. I agree with you though, that it's probably unlikely that any significant non-frozen precip will fall. The NAM has virtually no precip falling during the very brief warm period, so it's likely that any liquid would be very light and short-lived. Obviously, Stowe is even less likely to get rain than Sugarbush because of the latitude.

I guess the snow surface wouldn't be affected by very light drizzle (less than .01")? If so, then it's a moot point anyway.

For reference:

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kmpv.txt

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kmvl.txt

It's been years since I've had the opportunity to ski in Northern VT (I've been doing lots of day trips to S VT), so I'm extremely excited for the opportunity. Just hoping that the weather cooperates (I think it will).

[powderfreak]

Thanks for the response! The 18Z NAM does have H850 temps briefly getting to .8 C at MVL and 1.9C at MPV. Looks like the GFS has something similar, though it's hard to tell because the time series is courser. I agree with you though, that it's probably unlikely that any significant non-frozen precip will fall. The NAM has virtually no precip falling during the very brief warm period, so it's likely that any liquid would be very light and short-lived. Obviously, Stowe is even less likely to get rain than Sugarbush because of the latitude.

I guess the snow surface wouldn't be affected by very light drizzle (less than .01")? If so, then it's a moot point anyway.

For reference:

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kmpv.txt

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kmvl.txt

It's been years since I've had the opportunity to ski in Northern VT (I've been doing lots of day trips to S VT), so I'm extremely excited for the opportunity. Just hoping that the weather cooperates (I think it will).

Given how light precipitation amounts are shown to be, this is basically a moot point like you said... we'd need like an hour of steady rain to damage the snow surface (ice or crust) and that won't happen. I guess a sprinkle would be possible with those warm H85 temps, but 1000-500mb thicknesses remain pretty low given the warmth at H85, so I imagine any steady precipitation would be in the form of wet snow.

Enjoy your trip... as I've said, the conditions right now are the best they've been in years (since spring of 2007, IMO) and the snowpack has reached that critical point when everything becomes skiable and well-covered from top to bottom...even the rockiest runs.

[eekuasepinniW]

I appear to be on target for a pretty fierce squall.

[j24vt]

0.6" of accumulation today

[dendrite]

I appear to be on target for a pretty fierce squall.

Enjoy...looks like you'll get clobbered. A devastating miss for here. The sand covered snow banks stay brown.

[dendrite]

Enjoy...looks like you'll get clobbered. A devastating miss for here. The sand covered snow banks stay brown.

Romping at the Ashland RWIS.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_nh_rwis.cgi?id=656006

Looks like the heart of the squall went over the Lake. Congrats Rattlesnake Island.

[borderwx]

Planning to go up to Sugarbush on Monday. The clipper has trended so far north that the forecast now has a chance of light rain mixing in with the snow for a couple of hours on the mountain. The precip should be very light, and there is still some question as to whether it will happen at all, but I'm wondering how a touch of liquid could affect conditions. Should I worry about crust/icing, or will an hour or so of light drizzle not have much affect? Mostly wondering about the ungroomed slopes (bumps and trees).

Thanks for any info from the NNE skiers out there.

bring the fattest skis you got, especially of it heats up a bit, anything not skier compacted is bottomless, if it gets "manky" you'll appreciate only skimming the top 12"

by the way, nice pics PF. we cross a huge ravine accessing the steep terrain, usually its a gauntlet, right now though crossing snowbridges with views of water 10-12' below. doesn't the nickle and dime Dec seem like a lifetime ago? good New England winter, for not having a monster Nor'easter hit us, yet