yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone else notice how this is becoming a Wed-Thurs event.. which actually gives time for that second H to get in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What map are you looking at? Both 850 and surface are fine in DC. What are the temps at the 500 level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Or its possible he is looking at the upper right which displays the thickness. Yeah, but I was giving him an out because he said 0c line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are the temps at the 500 level? You mean thicknesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are the temps at the 500 level? We've already had a met say its heavy wet snow at 96 at DCA. You lose. Bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are the temps at the 500 level? Please stop. 1000-500 hpa thickness can be very deceiving since it is over such a broad vertical region. The 500 hpa circulation is actually E of the sounding location--so the heights aren't all that low in that region. As a result--thickness values are rather high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Also... note the track of the 850 and 700 lows -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_096l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_700_096l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ukie at 72 looks to go inland as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So, to sum things up, is the 0z GFS an ideal track? Or could we use a *tiny shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So, to sum things up, is the 0z GFS an ideal track? Or could we use a *tiny shift west? It is ideal for I-95. If you are west you could tolerate a very slight west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Fwiw the "Snow fall accumulation inches" part of Huff's site shows a good hit from this GFS run from Western NC...moving ne through Central, and NE VA, and continues NE through Md and NJ, except for Jrz coast. Again, I don't know how conservative or not this tool is, but it shows a nice hit nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What B_I said. Look at the forecast soundings. Western Shore of MD, low levels are warmish, but at/below freezing, and snow growth looks great. Near saturated below 300 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 that's reassuring wonder why it has thicknesses at 544? anyway, like I said, need soundings and they look good all things considered 544 thicknesses in Jan around here is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is ukie at 96, looks close to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'll just throw this out there, for sh*ts and giggles. I've noticed that the models, the NAM especially, tend to have the 850's modeled too high back in my area when precip is moving in from the south. The exact same thing happened last Monday. 3 days out, the NAM had the 850 line in central PA. By game time it was all the way to the NC border (in western Va), and snow was the primary precip here. I know this doesn't necessarily apply in the 95 corridor, but any of us in western va, hagerstown, martinsburg, I think, would kill for the NAM to be correct and take our chances with p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks to the kicker dropping down into MN, we can tolerate a more amped upper level LP as long as it isn't too far north. The kicker pretty much forces the storm it ENE vs NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This obsession over rain/snow at this stage seems way premature and a futile exercise till there is more consensus. Everyone should just be happy we are still in the game for perhaps some snow instead of moving in the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this looks grate to me thanks for posting. Also... note the track of the 850 and 700 lows -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_850_096l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_700_096l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Clown Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 544 thicknesses in Jan around here is snow. I agree. Look at the Western shore MD sounidng I posted, one can do the math. Indeed, 544 decameters between 1000 and 500 mb levels, but that is because the low levels are relatively warm. Relatively warm, but mostly below freezing. GFS forecast 2 meter temp is less than 33ºF in 96 hours at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 if we miss out on this storm, no worries. JB thinks this pattern will break with a 1993 type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 00z GGEM to 60 hrs on B&W 1009 L in NO http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM is less amplified with heights on the EC compared to it's 12z run despite the surface low initially being further west and cut off...so we shall see where this goes. But those are some significant changes through 60 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 72 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/492_100.gif 1004 S AL 84 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif 1000 W SC/GA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well this is new... 96 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif 988 L OFFSHORE ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Dont wanna post on a map, but weathervswife can you post the 114 "clown' map please...think the 144 has some melting seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well this is new... 96 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/134_100.gif 988 L OFFSHORE ACY That looks like Delmarva, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM still looks super warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That looks like Delmarva, no? its offshore... by like 50 miles.. which is a HUGE shift east from its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That looks like Delmarva, no? No it is Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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