Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM still looks super warm to me. That's what I was about to say...extremely so, in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So GGEM is offshore with a bomb and a decent high to the north, and NO ONE gets any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its offshore... by like 50 miles.. which is a HUGE shift east from its 12z run Yup, definitely a shift east. It's so hard to read those maps! My bad for the misread on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 operational runs are finally converging on what the ensemble mean of the GGEM/GFS/EC have shown for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its offshore... by like 50 miles.. which is a HUGE shift east from its 12z run But warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 But warmer... which i don't quite get tbh... but agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I spy a DC precip hole on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM gets a lot of love but the fact is, the JMA is a way better model for winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM gets a lot of love but the fact is, the JMA is a way better model for winter storms I don't know about that--but I personally am not impressed with the CMC as a global model. JMA I can't speak for since it is too obscure to bother with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 All snow in the DC Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 the mean is west of the OP track..hence the blues more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 baa baa ensemble mean have you any qpf? yes sir yes sir one inch full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks nice. dosent it always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 baa baa ensemble mean have you any qpf? yes sir yes sir one inch full Love the look with the precip blown out south of us and then restricted north. That is a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks nice. Yes, the mean does look great. However, what are the individual members like that make that up? That is, are "warmer" solutions the reason the mean QPF is that high (but not necessarily good for snow)...while perhaps colder, offshore solutions are relatively dry? Not trying to come off negative, but an honest question here. I'd be curious if there are two camps of solutions in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, the mean does look great. However, what are the individual members like that make that up? That is, are "warmer" solutions the reason the mean QPF is that high (but not necessarily good for snow)...while perhaps colder, offshore solutions are relatively dry? Not trying to come off negative, but an honest question here. I'd be curious if there are two camps of solutions in there. There have been two camps for the last few cycles. The 00Z members are not out yet. That said, this mean has a different look. The low traverses the south and then exits SE of DC. That is a good look and better than the old "hook and ladder" BS that tends to miss us. I bet the members will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Love the look with the precip blown out south of us and then restricted north. That is a change. didnt it look like that 96 hours before the Christmas boxing day fiasco. I am sounding like Mitchnick now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 <br />Love the look with the precip blown out south of us and then restricted north. That is a change.<br /><br /><br /><br />A nice change, at that. Anything but another hook job. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There have been two camps for the last few cycles. The 00Z members are not out yet. Good point, that's true now that I look back and recall the past several cycles. That's always a concern, as is the case where you've got one great solution that skews things. I think with every model and their ensembles for this event, we've just about run the gamut of possibilities in the past few days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 <br />didnt it look like that 96 hours before the Christmas boxing day fiasco. I am sounding like Mitchnick now<br /><br /><br /><br />No. Here is what the GFS had 96 hours before the Boxing Day storm http://beta.wxcaster.com/GFSCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2010122218Z&fcsthour=96&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, the mean does look great. However, what are the individual members like that make that up? That is, are "warmer" solutions the reason the mean QPF is that high (but not necessarily good for snow)...while perhaps colder, offshore solutions are relatively dry? Not trying to come off negative, but an honest question here. I'd be curious if there are two camps of solutions in there. Precisely. Though I believe the Ensemble also represents a swing in the positive direction within the past 12 hours or so from what we saw earlier today. Earlier it was pretty much OTS or warm wet solution, with "threading the needle" as our only savior. Now it's becoming clear that the entire dynamic of the storm is changing with regards to timing and which features will be impacting the storm (i.e. originial HP now being shown as long off shore, with a possible New HP system taking precedence as the storm moves in?). I swear, this is by far the most interesting winter without snow that I've ever been a part of in terms of model-watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 didnt it look like that 96 18 hours before the Christmas boxing day fiasco. I am sounding like Mitchnick now Corrected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Precisely. Though I believe the Ensemble also represents a swing in the positive direction within the past 12 hours or so from what we saw earlier today. Earlier it was pretty much OTS or warm wet solution, with "threading the needle" as our only savior. Now it's becoming clear that the entire dynamic of the storm is changing with regards to timing and which features will be impacting the storm (i.e. originial HP now being shown as long off shore, with a possible New HP system taking precedence as the storm moves in?). I swear, this is by far the most interesting winter without snow that I've ever been a part of in terms of model-watching. I definitely agree with this...though I'd add interesting and aggravating. Heck, it's like a baseball game where you're hammering the ball, tons of hits, lots of scoring opportunities, but you strand runners at 2nd and 3rd all the time, and have barely scratched out a run through almost 5 innings. Or if you prefer, like racking up yards in a football game but you've only scored a field goal by the half. Any other sports cliche comparisons are welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 While this -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_096.jpg -- may likely be rain for us.... THIS -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif -- would likely be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 While this -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_096.jpg -- may likely be rain for us.... THIS -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif -- would likely be snow Yoda, that is the most ridiculous tendril of backlash snow I have ever seen. It will never verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 While this -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_096.jpg -- may likely be rain for us.... THIS -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif -- would likely be snow Well that looks interesting! Though how in the hell our thicknesses here are still well above 540 with the low bombed out off the coast of Maine, I have to wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 DT first guess http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NE1g.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone have anything else on the UKMET other than SLP maps? Like maybe temps or precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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