Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 if temps werent an issue and this winter had gone better thru now... the way the gfs and euro look i'd be pretty sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Highest 850 DCA is 1.5 Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Balt gets to 2.0 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Balt gets to 2.0 at 850 Thank you, weird that DCA is colder that is very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Really? no, he's lying to make you ask stupid questions i never said it was really warm just too warm.. when i said west of the blue ridge i meant just west of the blue ridge. i was off a few miles apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 <br />Thank you, weird that DCA is colder that is very unusual.<br /><br /><br /><br />East is east, west is west. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 IAd peak 850 is 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 <br />IAd peak 850 is 0.5<br /><br /><br /><br />3 days to shave that is no problem. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 no, he's lying to make you ask stupid questions i never said it was really warm just too warm.. when i said west of the blue ridge i meant just west of the blue ridge. i was off a few miles apparently. Do not get frustrated IAN everyone is just crazy cranky waiting for some snow and they are taking it out on you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Precip is uniform .07 .30 .36 .31 Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Do not get frustrated IAN everyone is just crazy cranky waiting for some snow and they are taking it out on you . it's cool. h5 looks great for now. it's really hard to ignore that there is no cold high (or well that it's pumping air off the ocean after drifting there). sometimes these dynamic situations dont need textbook.. fingers crossed i guess. it's good to have the euro and gfs so close tho 3 days out plenty can go wrong. bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro was too warm for ice storm so who knows. The 3 inch qpf think where we got 4 inches of snow...1 inch of rain and 8 inches of snow is in trouble Dont worry...euro ensembles will look good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it's cool. h5 looks great for now. it's really hard to ignore that there is no cold high (or well that it's pumping air off the ocean after drifting there). sometimes these dynamic situations dont need textbook.. fingers crossed i guess. it's good to have the euro and gfs so close tho 3 days out plenty can go wrong. bed time. Thanks, get some rest you will sure as hell need it the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd say that if anything, the Euro is supporting a quick bursting trend in the direction of snow for the past couple model runs. It sounds like the H5 track is very similar, and like this past Tuesday, the Euro is scorching surface temps. This is the exact kind of trend we needed to bring it back in the game. 1.5 850 at DCA is extremely interesting, especially when the Euro shows the 0C line near Blue Ridge mts. Sketchy stuff...very excited for incoming data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Granted, the storm is a few days away, but I find it a little interesting that my predicted lows were between 16-18, and its already 14 or colder in some spots....Maybe the models are not handling the cold very well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of these look good. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zsnowf102.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of these look good. http://raleighwx.ame...0zsnowf102.html P005 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A lot of these look good. http://raleighwx.ame...0zsnowf102.html That they do yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 these look nice for the most part http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf096.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z NAM looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM and Euro ensemble means are east of op for each model for 0Z run. Both models keep 850's at or below 0 at DC/BWI.<br />6Z NAM looks whacked. Slower and colder. If things keep getting pushed back, this could become the Valentine's Day storm of 2011. Actually, 6Z NAM looks like it would go way east of the 0Z run-------? OTS MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM and Euro ensemble means are east of op for each model for 0Z run. Both models keep 850's at or below 0 at DC/BWI.<br />6Z NAM looks whacked. Slower and colder. If things keep getting pushed back, this could become the Valentine's Day storm of 2011. Actually, 6Z NAM looks like it would go way east of the 0Z run-------? OTS dT is forecasting a major storm Feb 2-4. Maybe its this one. 84 nam has no precip north of the low MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 What a disaster on the Gfs. Terrible model consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 6z GFS gets no precip north of Petersburg.. and the 0.1 line near RDU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What a disaster on the Gfs. Terrible model consistency The 500's looked screwy leading up to the storm. Was a whole different look from what all the models have been/are showing. Best bet is probably looking at the ensembles when they come out. Doubt we see that 500 setup with them. Edit: Actually the 06Z Nam had a somewhat similar look. So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at today's 06Z vs yesterdays 18Z it looks like the energy trailing behind is stronger with greater height rises in front of it causing the trough to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No matter what happens, this is a pattern-changer. It *has* to be. I hope you're right. I hope the new pattern is mid 50's and sunny. With no chance of snow I don't give a .... This tracking of fantasy, maybe, snows sucks. Then to top it all off, you can't get two runs in a row that look anything like each other. Seems logical to me that when you see two models make fantastic changes like the NAM and GFS did overnight, that new data might be the culprit. Newer meaning better. Now, I don't know that that is the case, but it seems like a logical reason. It's still over 3 days out, so I won't give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I hope you're right. I hope the new pattern is mid 50's and sunny. With no chance of snow I don't give a .... This tracking of fantasy, maybe, snows sucks. Then to top it all off, you can't get two runs in a row that look anything like each other. Seems logical to me that when you see two models make fantastic changes like the NAM and GFS did overnight, that new data might be the culprit. Newer meaning better. Now, I don't know that that is the case, but it seems like a logical reason. It's still over 3 days out, so I won't give up. East stays cold. No pattern change here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 East stays cold. No pattern change here. Unfortunately. I guess I shouldn't be so down. Next model runs may be something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Unfortunately. I guess I shouldn't be so down. Next model runs may be something completely different. Which is my frustration trying to watch these forums and a novice weather fan and snow advocate. While there's plenty of great analysis on the models by the resident mets (as well as analysis on what the models don't show), I know I can just tune back in tomorrow and have the models show something totally different. I guess that's why Mother Nature is a woman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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