PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That's the trouble. This still is not an ideal set up even with the nam track. There is probably no ideal set up here. There will be a harsh rain/snow line and it will run along I-95, IMO. I just don't sweat NAM soundings 84 hours away when the GFS doesn't even have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 here's DCA at 84 hours that's at least a mix of rain and a lot of sloppy fakes if not all snow imho....Wes? 995. 70.E 1.2 0.7 8.2 8.4 975. 237. 0.2 0.1 15.8 13.8 950. 445. 0.1 0.0 30.0 19.3 925. 659. 0.5 0.3 42.0 21.4 900. 879. 0.4 0.2 41.1 19.2 875. 1105. 0.3 0.1 41.6 18.1 850. 1338. 0.1 -0.1 43.5 17.1 825. 1577. -0.2 -0.3 43.6 15.9 800. 1823. -0.5 -0.7 38.0 14.4 775. 2077. -1.2 -1.4 41.0 12.7 750. 2338. -2.1 -2.3 54.3 11.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 those out in Leesburg will be happy to know that soundings for everything that falls starting 78 hrs (and maybe sooner) and beyond is ALL SNOW per soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 here's DCA at 84 hours that's at least a mix of rain and a lot of sloppy fakes if not all snow imho....Wes? 995. 70.E 1.2 0.7 8.2 8.4 975. 237. 0.2 0.1 15.8 13.8 950. 445. 0.1 0.0 30.0 19.3 925. 659. 0.5 0.3 42.0 21.4 900. 879. 0.4 0.2 41.1 19.2 875. 1105. 0.3 0.1 41.6 18.1 850. 1338. 0.1 -0.1 43.5 17.1 825. 1577. -0.2 -0.3 43.6 15.9 800. 1823. -0.5 -0.7 38.0 14.4 775. 2077. -1.2 -1.4 41.0 12.7 750. 2338. -2.1 -2.3 54.3 11.6 "Fakes", indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 those out in Leesburg will be happy to know that soundings for everything that falls starting 78 hrs (and maybe sooner) and beyond is ALL SNOW per soundings Yep, I noted that on another forum. The sref ensembles are showing 40 % of the members with surface temps below freezing at 87hrs. They and the 850 temps are a little cooler than the nam for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Finally hoping on this morning to discover that the models continue to have no idea... awesome. GFS... what the? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yup...in a situation like this, very true, when there are a wide range of solutions or a couple of very different ideas that "average out". But in a situation where there's decent agreement, they can be more informative. If I'm not mistaken, ensembles are best used for the medium-longer range to get an idea of the overall longwave flow, and in that they excel much more (EDIT: I'm talking more the global ensembles here). It depends, there are really good applications of ensemble being developed/used for mesoscale/convective scale features (things like convective initiation, storm type, etc.). Also, the SREF does really well with QPF verification (and even precip type forecasting occasionally). But to your point, ensembles were originally developed / applied to medium/long range (3-14 day) synoptic scale forecasting.....and they are still extremely useful when used correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It depends, there are really good applications of ensemble being developed/used for mesoscale/convective scale features (things like convective initiation, storm type, etc.). Also, the SREF does really well with QPF verification (and even precip type forecasting occasionally). But to your point, ensembles were originally developed / applied to medium/long range (3-14 day) synoptic scale forecasting.....and they are still extremely useful when used correctly. well, I hope you're accusing us of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we are hoping the models are once again too warm at this range as they were with the last event and that dynamic cooling caused by heavy precip will take care of the marginal surface since the layers above are all cold enough. Bottom-line, there will be rain and a nasty cut-off line. Hope everyone is wearing their big-boy pants. The problem is that the situation is vastly different this time around (compared to the in-situ CAD that set up for the last event)....so it's fine to hope that this is the case (models being too warm), but I'm not sure there is any real reason to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lbchandler Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That's the trouble. This still is not an ideal set up even with the nam track. Wes Is there any policy that you are able to reveal at NWS that because GFS is an American model it must be given much greater weight weight than any of the foreign models particularly the Euro? On Bastardis pro site this morning he was saying that last week for energy clients for one day GFS was predicting 20 degree temps and within a couple of days of that Minneapolis the city that was the subject matter of the forecast actually hit 20 below and how completely useless the model is. If you can comment it would be appreciated Brad Chandler CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The problem is that the situation is vastly different this time around (compared to the in-situ CAD that set up for the last event)....so it's fine to hope that this is the case (models being too warm), but I'm not sure there is any real reason to believe it. Every situation is different. I just think the NAM might be off by a degree or three (either way) at 84 hours. Perhaps not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well, I hope you're accusing us of that! Actually yes....it brings a tear to my eye when people actually notice clustering of solutions/possibilities, realize that large spread is associated with low predictability, and stop posting stupid ensemble mean quantities (especially qpf) as if they are going to verify verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Every situation is different. I just think the NAM might be off by a degree or three (either way) at 84 hours. Perhaps not. True, but wasn't the 00z Euro also extremely warm? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 True, but wasn't the 00z Euro also extremely warm? . It was actually warmer than this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Actually yes....it brings a tear to my eye when people actually notice clustering of solutions/possibilities, realize that large spread is associated with low predictability, and stop posting stupid ensemble mean quantities (especially qpf) as if they are going to verify verbatim. This...thank you! Sure, it's nice (and fun) to see a great-looking ensemble mean. But if the spread is all over the place it doesn't "mean" a whole lot (pun slightly intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, we can hope for that I suppose! Actually I was surprised that BWI had relatively little as areas not far from there got a fair bit more. I got about 2.3" here, DCA had a meagre 0.2", but there were a lot of reports to the north and west of DC of 5-6" or so. Guess it depended on the banding and where they ended up, as I think most areas had a similar temperature profile for the most part if I'm not mistaken. Actually, another storm comes to mind, Feb. 25 ( somewhere around that date?) in 2007. Got a good period of heavy, wet snow that ended as drizzle, about 5" or so of snow accumulated. Surface was barely at or below freezing but it was snowing hard. I heard later on that we had essentially a rather deep isothermal layer. I had 7 inches 12/5/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wes Is there any policy that you are able to reveal at NWS that because GFS is an American model it must be given much greater weight weight than any of the foreign models particularly the Euro? On Bastardis pro site this morning he was saying that last week for energy clients for one day GFS was predicting 20 degree temps and within a couple of days of that Minneapolis the city that was the subject matter of the forecast actually hit 20 below and how completely useless the model is. If you can comment it would be appreciated Brad Chandler CHO No, you'll often see in their medium range discussions that they are going 80% towards the euro and 20 towards the GFS, They are not required to forecast what the GFS has because it's the american model. Besides, this year it has had some big wins compared to the euro. The latter has forecast at least 3 big snowstorms for dc that never occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looking at 60 hrs, and I may look stupid for saying this, but I think the GFS will look good for us this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looking at 60 hrs, and I may look stupid for saying this, but I think the GFS will look good for us this run You are probably right but extrapolation is a jinx and the kiss of death. I am becoming superstitious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looking at 60 hrs, and I may look stupid for saying this, but I think the GFS will look good for us this run It's definitely coming north with the precipitation this run though it still may not be as heavy as the nam but it does look like were are approaching some type of consensus barring a euro flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looking at 60 hrs, and I may look stupid for saying this, but I think the GFS will look good for us this run It's coming in a tick slower and even a bit more south....[edit, the 5h energy, not the precip] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 big improvement over 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My untrained eye really likes the look at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS looks good at 78! Cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Still east of NAM and Euro, but that is fine for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 at 78 hrs, the 5H is almost closed if that can close, then look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Light snow at 84hrs for DCA/BWI area, 2m temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 36 hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Still east of NAM and Euro, but that is fine for now. And with that new High there all we need now is a west trend and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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