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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Just some thoughts from the 12Z GFS/NAM

The storm is slowed so much it almost phases with the "kicker". An interaction with the kicker may serve to pull the storm up the coast a bit more and reduce the OTS risk. The slower speed allows the northern impulse on Tuesday to outrun the storm and shore up the cold air a little bit more over the NE.

But, I'd prefer it not to slow down any more as the northern stream has not been overly kind to us this winter.

Clearly now a later Wedenesday to Wedensday night storm.

1) 48 hours worth of weekend model watching to only gain 24 hours of proximity to the event

2) It keeps the storm out in that day 3-4 range which models have a tendency to flip and produce some wild solutions. We are no closer to understanding the setup of the storm than yesterday.

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Still likes the inland bomb scenario. It will be interesting to see where the EURO fits in.

Yeah, 0z GGEM had a 988mb like 100miles east of the Maryland Beaches, maybe like a 150-200 mile difference, but it would be a difference between snow and rain possibly, it would be interesting, still it seems like a average of all models would take a good track with marginal temps.

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I assume far too warm though...

Hey Ian could you give a run down on temp profiles for latest GFS? Obviously 850 line is not telling the story if it's too warm for snow...

GFS is not too warm for snow....read the thread starting at about 10:30 am....12 Z GFS run is snow for many, but issue this time is not much precip for western areas, not temps

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I assume far too warm though...

Hey Ian could you give a run down on temp profiles for latest GFS? Obviously 850 line is not telling the story if it's too warm for snow...

I didn't say it was too warm for snow, just still warm. Verbatim we'd probably have issues before the back end in DC.

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On the GFS? :huh:

The GFS is warm at 78 hrs with the zero line at the surface north of the Mason Dixon line. However by 84hrs when the evaporation cooling gets going and the low starts really deepening and turn the winds to northerly, the temps collapse. It remains a really tricky forecast. I doubt it is an all snow even but it could be a mostly snow event. Right now I'd still be very circumspect about making any calls about the system but then I tend to like to wait unless we have a feb 5th or Dec 19th type of event.

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