mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 60 1004 lo south central ga. closed 500 a tick neg central northern miss ala border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 day 3 7H RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Looks like we'll get precip from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 day 3 850 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble Mean 2m data 78hrs:32 line is from Hagerstown to York to Allentown 84hrs is right thru the Major Cities Looking at the smoothed mean of surface temps seems even more useless than looking at the precip spread or 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 72 broad 1004 low eastern sc nc--- 0c just west ofdc to west of roa ric +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 72 broad 1004 low eastern sc nc--- 0c just west ofdc to west of roa ric +5 It better crash next panel or we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It better crash next panel or we are toast. we are toast per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 78 sub 996 eastern nc dc+4 ric +8 0c east of winchester to roa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Warmer than last night for sure. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Warmer than last night for sure. Oh well. this doesn't bother me every time this year it had a snow storm for us this year it never panned out so I almost feel relieved, honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 84 988 east of md shore 0c dc to ric ric 1"+ dc near 0.75 soaking rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd start paying more attention to the sref than the gefs ensembles. The latter is going to spread the precip too far west. The former have better resolution and probably have a better handling of the thermal fields. Thank you for being such a superb teacher here, Wes. My hunch was that last nite's NAM was takeing the lead the way with an inland solution. At the time you posted "I don't know what we are getting". Amazing, isn't it, how the outcome doesn't present itself clearly until perhaps 36 hours before precipitation falls in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Warmer than last night for sure. Oh well. Doesn't mean much when every other model is colder and east. Especially given the Euro's recent track record with nor'easters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this doesn't bother me every time this year it had a snow storm for us this year it never panned out so I almost feel relieved, honestly Have you given up? Because the euro never showed us below freezing for the ice event and the other models show a good chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 90 980 east of jersey shore precip about done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 84 988 east of md shore 0c dc to ric ric 1"+ dc near 0.75 soaking rain You guys should get some wrap around? If this shifted just 50 miles east I would think it would be much better for you guys? I am going to be in Herndon this week so I am trolling your threads. It looks really similar to last nights 0z run just a touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thank you for being such a superb teacher here, Wes. My hunch was that last nite's NAM was takeing the lead the way with an inland solution. At the time you posted "I don't know what we are getting". Amazing, isn't it, how the outcome doesn't present itself clearly until perhaps 36 hours before precipitation falls in our area? Probably about 48 hours, the energy has to work through the mountains of BC and Montana before it reaches the plains where the models can get a much better handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Doesn't mean much when every other model is colder and east. Especially given the Euro's recent track record with nor'easters... GGEM and NAM are both pretty warm. GFS is actually the cold east outlier at this point. I was hoping the Euro would cool down some. Instead, it torched further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can some one give me the location of the 500 MB LP for hours 78,84, and 90? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 another week, another bliz for ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 90 980 east of jersey shore precip about done Are you going to rub salt in our wounds and tell us how temperatures crash just as the storm passes our latitude so that the rich get richer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 To the euro ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the euro 500 track is still pretty freakin sweet but i worry we can get that and still rain at least in the city. if i was at ji's house i may feel more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Can some one give me the location of the 500 MB LP for hours 78,84, and 90? Thanks! Roughly... 78 - CLT 84 - Norfolk 90 - with the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM and NAM are both pretty warm. GFS is actually the cold east outlier at this point. I was hoping the Euro would cool down some. Instead, it torched further. How warm is pretty warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the euro 500 track is still pretty freakin sweet but i worry we can get that and still rain at least in the city. if i was at ji's house i may feel more comfortable. If you were at JI's house the last thing you would be is comfortable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS has been a cold outlier for days now. Not sure what we make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How warm is pretty warm? GGEM is on fire and rain into upstate NY. NAM is close even down here. Euro would be mostly rain here, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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