Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 too far south and out to sea. bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yep, crapped the bed couldn't get it up....the coast this run just missing the connection still, there's a shot and its close to something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Been out all day and trying to read up. NAM is OTS, GFS is actually not a bad hit, Euro is a good track but too warm east of the Blue Ride, and the GEEM issues a heat advisory. Is that where we are? A compromise of all the models would not suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run of the NAM is getting Ishtar level reviews on the regional threads up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're three days out in a turbulent pattern, so I'm still OK with this solution. It could certainly be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is a much better run than 18z.. 500 pattern is not quite as chaotic and the vort looks much healthier. most yrs you like this kind of look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run of the NAM is getting Ishtar level reviews on the regional threads up the coast. They've gone a few weeks without a MECS. I don't blame them for being upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is a much better run than 18z.. 500 pattern is not quite as chaotic and the vort looks much healthier. most yrs you like this kind of look right now. I watched this run unfold on PSU's wall, still trying to learn the maps at the various levels, up on the NE regional thread they are puzzled over the SLP being in a weird place given the vort max. Not sure which maps to look at to examine that and learn. Can anyone point me to where I should be looking? Trying to learn, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is a much better run than 18z.. 500 pattern is not quite as chaotic and the vort looks much healthier. most yrs you like this kind of look right now. Welleven this year the NAM past 48 hours-- good or bad-- still doesn't show what's actually going to happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Actually a very nice run for Richmond! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I watched this run unfold on PSU's wall, still trying to learn the maps at the various levels, up on the NE regional thread they are puzzled over the SLP being in a weird place given the vort max. Not sure which maps to look at to examine that and learn. Can anyone point me to where I should be looking? Trying to learn, thanks. ncep or raleigh's site are prob best http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00znam.html http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In keeping with tradition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're three days out in a turbulent pattern, so I'm still OK with this solution. It could certainly be worse. It could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is a much better run than 18z.. 500 pattern is not quite as chaotic and the vort looks much healthier. most yrs you like this kind of look right now. I'm glad you posted this. Now I don't feel so dumb for asking, but does the surface line up with what's going on upstairs? I looked at the 500 map at 66 hours, and thought, yeah baby, only to watch the surface go to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 FWIW, ORH says the SLP is disjointed from the vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Welleven this year the NAM past 48 hours-- good or bad-- still doesn't show what's actually going to happen . true tho in some ways that makes a small good 'trend' even better. it definitely has diminished value once later in the run but it still pumps out a 'decent' look for the 500 low in this area. some oddities at the surface early may account for it not being further west. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam500mbvort078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ncep or raleigh's site are prob best http://raleighwx.ame...els/00znam.html http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Thanks Ian. And where would one expect a SLP to be in relation to the vort max generally? Trying to understand the complaint voiced in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I disagree about this being a good run for Ric. Even with this thing to the south-east temps look to be an issue. Even if 850's below 0 you need heavy precip to dynamically cool the surface. Precip never really gets that heavy on the nam. Still going with rain for Ric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 FWIW, ORH says the SLP is disjointed from the vort It says alot. He carries alot of weight here, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 FWIW, ORH says the SLP is disjointed from the vort Yeah, that's what I am trying to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, that's what I am trying to understand. Let somebody answer - you've posted that you don't get it like 3 times in 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is garbage but the run looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No way the long range NAM beats the GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Lower 850's are the positive to take from the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks Ian. And where would one expect a SLP to be in relation to the vort max generally? Trying to understand the complaint voiced in the other thread. generally it should be just to the southeast of the 500 vort tho im not sure that's always the rule and it depends on the tilt of the trough + how well developed/stacked the low is. mostly lows are tilted back to the northwest at height though. so as you move up from surface to 850 to 700 to 500 you'd see the respective lows a bit northwest of the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Let somebody answer - you've posted that you don't get it like 3 times in 10 minutes Well, I am not trying to clutter the thread, I am trying to learn. I suppose it would be more in keeping with what these threads have been this weekend if I said "snow hole" or "seasonal trend ftl"? ETA: Much appreciated Ian, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is good if you believe in the north trend and are worried about temps. It is just barely not threading the needle, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's not a horrible run-- Somehow the model run from 60 hours out is the final nail? Vort doesn't go negative until late, low out runs it and we get that low too far east. 500 MB low causes some havoc over parts of VA and NC late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Off topic: Who is that guy in your avatar? Phineas Gage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phineas_Gage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is good if you believe in the north trend and are worried about temps. It is just barely not threading the needle, basically. hopefully the gfs comes back west. after sref and nam i'd make a guess it will. the eastward move may just be a burp. gfs/euro had solid h5 tracks for a few runs in a row and the euro has been on something of precipy consquence for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hopefully the gfs comes back west. after sref and nam i'd make a guess it will. the eastward move may just be a burp. gfs/euro had solid h5 tracks for a few runs in a row and the euro has been on something of precipy consquence for a while. Agree. I would like the GFS to come back west to its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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