Swiscaster Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Has the "convective feedback" excuse been used yet? At least twice already. I say correct the thread title and things will start looking up. Calling it a "treat" is jinxing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18Z GFS gives BWI a total of .16" qpf over the entire 16 day run,and none of it with the hoffman "event" http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If any mets want to explain why models didn't forecast the cold well during the ice storm and if that idea is applicable to this setup, i'm listening. Not a met, but having closely observed cold air damming here in central VA for about 15 yearsI have concluded that the models always underplay the "Wedge" the first opportunity or so during the winter, Actually during the ice storm last week, the models did have a pretty decent damming signature in the period 4-5 days ahead but took it away as we got closer. There was a high that could force it. Just didnt show the isobars "bending" In this setup, the High is too far east to be of any consequence. However..... and this is just my opinion. I have also seen decent cold infiltration down the east side of the mountains if the Northeast has some cold air built up in that region. The circulation around the approaching low helps pull it down. I've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is also multiple runs that show little to no consistency. The 0z and 12z were wetter and up the coast, the 6z and 18z were suppressed and OTS. Which one are you putting faith in? Now, the EURO has struggled some this year, but at least with this one its shown at least some run to run consistency which no other has been able to muster. I do like your point about the consistency in the Euro. Very valid. But I still can't ignore multiple runs of an OTS solution, of course added to such because the latest runs have been OTS. Obviously there is still time for the H5 track to change but it is that lack confidence I've accumulated from the Euro thus far by it's thwarting nature. As every run gets closer to the event, presumably the runs become more accurate (less chaos. I know there are rebukes to this generalization but I'm speaking in terms of a model being as progressive as the GFS has been so far with this storm), and since the GFS has been more accurate this year, ATM I'm not liking the odds, especially considering seasonal trends. I truly hope you're right and the consistency turns out to be the winner here. If that's the case, and the same biases are applied as we've seen all year with the Euro (too warm, track a little too inland), then we've got a jackpot don't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this looks like the general breakdown of the 18z gfs ensemble members SE -- 5 MAYBE (BACKEND) -- 5 GOOD -- 1 I95 / 1 nw REALLY WARM -- 0 http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f60.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f66.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f72.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f78.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this looks like the general breakdown of the 18z gfs ensemble members SE -- 5 MAYBE (BACKEND) -- 5 GOOD -- 1 95 / 1 nw REALLY WARM -- 0 http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f60.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f66.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f72.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f78.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f84.gif gotta' like those odds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this looks like the general breakdown of the 18z gfs ensemble members SE -- 5 MAYBE (BACKEND) -- 5 GOOD -- 1 I95 / 1 nw REALLY WARM -- 0 http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f60.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f66.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f72.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f78.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_18z/f84.gif I wonder if the remaining ten members break down along similar lines (I would guess so given the mean, but I haven't looked at the spaghetti plots yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Once again all of the 12z models with addition of CRAS[Lol] made by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So I guess everyone is now expecting OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So I guess everyone is now expecting OTS? I'm still expecting rain. What I am not expecting, is significant accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Once again all of the 12z models with addition of CRAS[Lol] made by me. What if you lightened up or removed the grid? It complicates seeing the paths. Also, maybe put a white block behind the legend so we can read it and tell wehixh path is which. Otherwise, it's pretty cool to see all of the outputs together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I predict that the GFS will not only bow down to the Euro on this storm, it will actually stick its head up the Euro's a$$. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So I guess everyone is now expecting OTS? Honestly, with no scientific basis at all involved, I'm expecting all the models within the next 48 hours to come into agreement on a complete whiff for the DC area, then, about 24 hours or so before the onset of the whiff, I'm expecting one or two models to throw the metro area enough of a bone that I get suckered back in, only to wallow in self-pity after the models all shift back south and east at the last minute. Oh, and then of course, New England gets hammered after our whiff. Is that cynical enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I predict that the GFS will not only bow down to the Euro on this storm, it will actually stick its head up the Euro's a$$. MDstorm That's a wonderful visual. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So I guess everyone is now expecting OTS? Or crippling backlash snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In all seriousness, I have a good feeling about this one. That's enough to keep me happy for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In all seriousness, I have a good feeling about this one. That's enough to keep me happy for now. that definitely makes me feel a lot better about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I guess it's just another way to be screwed this winter, but how fitting would it be to be sub freezing for about 90 hours straight- which doesn't happen here to often, only to have a driving rainstorm 36 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 that definitely makes me feel a lot better about it Glad I could help, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At what timeframe did the models finally converge on the miss for the Dec 26th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At what timefreme did the models finally converge on the miss for the Dec 26th storm? shortly after radar indicated it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see what the problem is. Models have clear consensus. It will either snow, rain, or be dry. 33% chance of snow??? I'll take those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I guess it's just another way to be screwed this winter, but how fitting would it be to be sub freezing for about 90 hours straight- which doesn't happen here to often, only to have a driving rainstorm 36 hours later. This is very similar to how the first half of Jan 99 went during la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At what timeframe did the models finally converge on the miss for the Dec 26th storm? The SREFS gave us all hope for far too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is very similar to how the first half of Jan 99 went during la nina. How'd the 2nd half go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At what timeframe did the models finally converge on the miss for the Dec 26th storm? All I remember is waking up Christmas morning, looking at the 6z runs, watching a little light snow falling outside my window, thinking, life doesn't get much better. Then by the time the 12z runs were completed, I had a slightly different philosophy about life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All I remember is waking up Christmas morning, looking at the 6z runs, watching a little light snow falling outside my window, thinking, life doesn't get much better. Then by the time the 12z runs were completed, I had a slightly different philosophy about life. Weren't the SREF's the only super good things by 6z? And even they were starting to slowly pull the rug out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weren't the SREF's the only super good things by 6z? And even they were starting to slowly pull the rug out. IIRC the SREFS looked good right up until the arrival of precip. At that point they began to pull it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmjokers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A history of GFS total precip output for BWI: 01/23/2011 18Z 0.0 01/23/2011 12Z 0.25 01/23/2011 06Z 0.0 01/23/2011 00Z 0.5 01/22/2011 18Z 0.0 01/22/2011 12Z 0.08 01/22/2011 06Z 0.71 01/22/2011 00Z 0.50 01/21/2011 18Z 0.73 01/21/2011 12Z 1.23 01/21/2011 06Z 1.79 01/21/2011 00Z 2.50 "Trend" is pretty terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 as pessimistic as I have been, I don't understand the doom and gloom after the 18Z runs maybe there have been significant snow storms that were proged by both the NAM and the GFS from 72+ hrs out and held, but I don't remember any what I do know, however, is that every significant storm was proged beforehand to go out to sea vs. to our west, and this storm fits that bill sooooo, as much as we would all love to look at pretty maps for 3 days+ with shades of dark green and blue over our houses while the thick blue line is to the east/south, it doesn't happen like that and likely never will this is an interesting system that has already had its fair share of curve balls, but if you want a significant snow event around here this year we're gonna have to fight the model wars for it, and it ain't gonna be pretty so either prepare to do battle in front of your computer screen until we can get a handle on this storm or get up now and walk away from your computer because we've got 2+ more days of this and yeah, you've got time to run into the bathroom and put on a fresh pair of Pull-ups before the 0Z model run, so get along and do it now girls and boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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