MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z NAM gives little love with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 actually, I've got one to add to the "it's gon rain" side of the list...my birthday is Tuesday...laugh if you want, but I was born with a curse...it is not going to snow... Happy Birthday! It's an awful day (1/18) for me. Anniversary of my grandmothers death 48 years ago Tuesday and my brother's death at age 31 on 1/18/82. But I'll be cheering you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is a very interesting pattern coming up. For the first time that I can remember in months, the MJO wants to put convection in the date line. It basically has been useless all year, but I think the +PNA type pattern that models are showing may at least be partly because of the progged convection. The NAO is forecasted to be near neutral or slightly positive. A + PNA with neautral NAO would likely be pretty cold for the east. No NAO block would likely allow any cold in Canada to spill into the eastern US. It remains to be seen exactly how cold it will get, but some of the models bring this into Quebec..if not right into the northeast. Here are the MJO plots. Note how they want to bring convection into the dateline. Maybe this will weaken Nina some?? Nice observation re: the MJO. Good potential for disturbances amplifying into the eastern US with the +PNA Only concern is the NAO. GFS and Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement on an east based NAO. In combination with the +PNA, can spell below to well below normal temperatures. However this pattern is hinting at the dreaded cold/dry, warm/wet, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12z EC has to be close to a 32F snow bomb for C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Don't know if this has been mentioned but, how do these anomalous SST's factor in to the pattern? Especially up by Greenland and the central Pac? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 When I feel the threat is legit, I'll op a thread for you guys. Pattern needs to reload as I see it and the next big system looks like a mixed bag for most. Can you come up with original thread title. I mean snowmageddon was so last year LOL, originality FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice observation re: the MJO. Good potential for disturbances amplifying into the eastern US with the +PNA Only concern is the NAO. GFS and Euro ensembles are in pretty good agreement on an east based NAO. In combination with the +PNA, can spell below to well below normal temperatures. However this pattern is hinting at the dreaded cold/dry, warm/wet, rinse and repeat. I think it's ok, as long as we have ridging poking into western Canada. Obviously it's tough to pin the exact details of height placements, but the big pieces are there anyways. Euro ensembles look similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Can you come up with original thread title. I mean snowmageddon was so last year LOL, originality FTL My thread title was not called that(it was subtitled that), Megan's was. You FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12z EC has to be close to a 32F snow bomb for C NH. Looks similar to many of the storms we had up there 07-08. I'd bet Plymouth stays frozen/freezing if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My thread title was not called that(it was subtitled that), Megan's was. You FTL. Hence YOU Grandpa Weenie. The threat is legit, Jerry described it best, front end dump with ice to dryslot 3-6. JB warm January huge loss. Somebody notice the trend for the Euro to get colder each run, you have to run an animated GIF starting on the day ten run from 4 days ago where it had a big cutter with 850 temps plus 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Happy Birthday! It's an awful day (1/18) for me. Anniversary of my grandmothers death 48 years ago Tuesday and my brother's death at age 31 on 1/18/82. But I'll be cheering you! urgh, that sucks for your birthday, sorry to hear that. Mines the 14th, lots of Jan birthdays here. Wish I was headed to Tampa on my birthday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Glad to hear the Euro ens is same as op..just trend it a little more to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12z EC has to be close to a 32F snow bomb for C NH. I believe it is... looking at the "crummy" charts. Need a good wet snow here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Happy Birthday! It's an awful day (1/18) for me. Anniversary of my grandmothers death 48 years ago Tuesday and my brother's death at age 31 on 1/18/82. But I'll be cheering you! sorry that's such a crappy day for you...but i'll send some prayers along for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12z EC has to be close to a 32F snow bomb for C NH. Good, because it is UGLY on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That's a snow to rain to snow bomb on the Euro…for next week. Actually , the Euro has 3 events through D10: the one next week, then a small NJ model sneaky spin-up, then another possible subsume scenario if the run went out to day 12 +PNA ...hm Jamaica-cancel storm???? (8:00am. BDL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Good, because it is UGLY on the 12z GFS 18z just got worse: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_126m.gif Maybe NH wouldn't be all RA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wow, lets hope the gfs does not verify, forget precip type, thats some decent flooding potential, inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope the GFS is wrong. I puked on my laptop after seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope the GFS is wrong. I puked on my laptop after seeing it. WWRKD? What Would Rev Kev Do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't even bother to look at the 2m temps on the global models; they lack the resoloution for that. Just look at the large scale players and you can usually get a good idea of who will torch and who won't based on climo.....no one should care that the GFS brings ORH to 48*, or whatever ungodly reading it has....it's often BS and irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Luckily we have the euro ensembles on our side, but the gfs solution is not impossible. There are some key features that different models are trying to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope the GFS is wrong. I puked on my laptop after seeing it. Or, its SE bias is coming into play and it cuts to Wisconsin, leaving us with some snizzle overrunning, followed by a ten minute light shower associated with a cold front, then caa on sw winds!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Luckily we have the euro ensembles on our side, but the gfs solution is not impossible. There are some key features that different models are trying to focus on. I won't even look at it for a couple of days, but as long as we get some sort of triple point, it won't be horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 WWRKD? What Would Rev Kev Do? Say the 18z GFS? Please, garbage in garbage out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Or, its SE bias is coming into play and it cuts to Wisconsin, leaving us with some snizzle overrunning, followed by a ten minute light shower associated with a cold front, then caa on sw winds!!!! Actually, if you have a good arctic high in place at the lead in, you can getter a better front end dump by having the mid levels cut waaaaay west.....as opposed to up the Hudson or something. Dec 16, 2007 is a good example.....the primary push of the warm tongue was west of us, into NYS beccause it was so far west and we were more heavily influenced by the impressive +pp to the N of ME. This is why we had that classic obs map of Hyannis pounding snow, while Albany sleeted and rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Actually, if you have a good arctic high in place at the lead in, you can getter a better front end dump by having the mid levels cut waaaaay west.....as opposed to up the Hudson or something. Dec 16, 2007 is a good example.....the primary push of the arm tongue was west of us, into NYS beccause it was so far west. I agree 100%.......let it cut west of the lakes, I would be fine with that, but 18z is about the worst possible outcome for new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I agree 100%.......let it cut west of the lakes, I would be fine with that, but 18z is about the worst possible outcome for new england. I'll take your word for it....not even gonna look. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm worried because I'm on the cp, but you foks who aren't shouldn't even be concerned.....yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wow, euro weeklies completely flipped the script. They have the +PNA pattern on week 2, but evolve ridging into AK and western Canada on week 3, while having a +nao. This drives some cold air right into the US. Week 4 also has a +NAO but week + height anomalies over nrn Canada. It basically keeps most of the US below normal. Week 4 looks kind of ugly in the Bering Sea, but verbatim the weeklies are cold. They abandoned the -nao idea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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