Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 it looks to me the euro op takes the low right over ottawa and redevelops another low on the BM, and hence all the initial warming and the 850 line as north as it is. yesterday i may have believed that, but now that i see the pattern that is trying to establish....that defintely goes against climo in my region in this gradient pattern. so my thoughts on this pattern are that you guys are going to end up doing a lot better than you think, at least away from the immediate shore. snow to mix and possibly some rain for some......but these gradient patterns love to sink south and east as we move closer to the event, esp in jan and feb. probably not all frozen in SNE but enough to limit damage to the snowpack for many, and maybe build on for some and increase staying power......high chance for all snow in CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 1-3 Saturday nite..Everyone pretty much agree? If the NAM is right then yes. Any idea if the Euro is spitting out any QPF for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If the NAM is right then yes. Any idea if the Euro is spitting out any QPF for that? looks like about 0.1 for SNE give or take a rough estimate..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFs spits out just over 0.1" for extreme Eastern areas (Ri/MA) for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS gives a few inches of snow next week, then disaster a few hours later. Hopefully, we get at least a swfe. Maybe the euro will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If the NAM is right then yes. Any idea if the Euro is spitting out any QPF for that? No reason to go against the hot hand this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS gives a few inches of snow next week, then disaster a few hours later. Hopefully, we get at least a swfe. Maybe the euro will be better. Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Garbage In garbage out, It phailed miserably on yesterdays storm, Ride the Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If we really do see a scenario next week where we are going to get ice than I can probably live without the front end snow, any front end snow will probably be on the wet side which would make it heavier in nature and much more able to stick to power lines and tree limbs, if we start getting accumulations on those and have to deal with ice that has disaster written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 In garbage out, It phailed miserably on yesterdays storm, Ride the Euro..... I am worried though of a warmer overall solution..and not an all snow event. Ice would be nice..or if it has to rain let be 33-34 and rain..just no screaming sou easter for 12 hrs that destroys everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GFS looks like a small front ender to a rain storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Garbage meh, not sure about this time, the NAM usually seems to be beefy with clippers, would like to at least see the Euro spit out more QPF than it's showing...only Wednesday though so we'll see what happens by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i go with colder storm next week no low will inland most likely near just inland of the bm area with all the snow on the ground will force the low south of sne area or just over the cape cod area . im going with snow inland and ice and rain for the coast and rain for cape cod area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I am worried though of a warmer overall solution..and not an all snow event. Ice would be nice..or if it has to rain let be 33-34 and rain..just no screaming sou easter for 12 hrs that destroys everything It is ugly even here on the GFS outside of NW Maine but even there it looked front loaded then change over, Hopefully thats not the case here, A cold rain is not as devestaing to the snowpack as winds screaming out of the SE and 50 degrees, We will see, Its a ways out thank god... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 well the GFS at 12z isnt a gradient pattern at all lol its just a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS also looks to try to develop the Sat. night clipper, just a tad too late for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 meh, not sure about this time, the NAM usually seems to be beefy with clippers, would like to at least see the Euro spit out more QPF than it's showing...only Wednesday though so we'll see what happens by Friday. It's Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 meh, not sure about this time, the NAM usually seems to be beefy with clippers, would like to at least see the Euro spit out more QPF than it's showing...only Wednesday though so we'll see what happens by Friday. Euro really was not real robust with the qpf for yesterdays storm until a day or 2 before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 well the GFS at 12z isnt a gradient pattern at all lol it just cutter sucks I aggree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's Thursday Right. Euro really was not real robust with the qpf for yesterdays storm until a day or 2 before.... Well considering it is Thursday (not Wednesday like I first thought) it would be nice to see the Euro spit out more QPF but we'll see what the 12z Euro does today, if it continues to not show much at all than I would not really think much of the clipper, maybe some snow showers. I'm more inclined to see how the Euro handles the system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Scooter 1-3 on the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Right. Well considering it is Thursday (not Wednesday like I first thought) it would be nice to see the Euro spit out more QPF but we'll see what the 12z Euro does today, if it continues to not show much at all than I would not really think much of the clipper, maybe some snow showers. I'm more inclined to see how the Euro handles the system next week. Clippers are always tough to model and usually can hold surprises, Hopefully, The 12z handles next weeks storm similar to 00z having development a little further east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOGAPS is a blitzing snowstorm and GGEM is suppressed, I like the spread at this point! Those two are always suppressed at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Scooter 1-3 on the clipper? Yeah the GFS would argue for an inch or two. It's interesting, because normally, a system passing that far north normally won't give us crap. It appears to have a pretty decent slug of waa to give us some precip. The euro is kind of paltry, so I think we need to keep that in mind, but it would still probably have a coating to an inch for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 clippers are one of my favorite for there ability to produce surprise sneak attacks on us .I can remember quite a few that were only going to dust us and ended up with 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS would argue 3-5" then a mix for interior, rain at the coast. It also appears that it wants to triple point sne...hopefully. Lets just get this east. Edit: for next week that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 clippers are one of my favorite for there ability to produce surprise sneak attacks on us .I can remember quite a few that were only going to dust us and ended up with 3-5 We have done quite well on clippers here over the years as they sometimes can have some explosive development once they hit the atlantic and move into the GOM, More times then not though, Downeast Maine reaps the benifits as they devlop to late for here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GGEM argues for some light accum this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS would argue 3-5" then a mix for interior, rain at the coast. It also appears that it wants to triple point sne...hopefully. Lets just get this east. Edit: for next week that is. Good thing you clarified that as some would lock in that total for the clipper........lol, Yes east off the coast for next week, We don't need rain at this point......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GGEM also looking at a cooler solution for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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