mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would advise coastal dwellers to start shoveling snow away from the foundation of your home. and far interior folks to tell your plow guy to push the snow back a little further and make some room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Always has to be a suck-azz grinch storm after the biggies...almost without fail....by the time the cold returns, your pack is either gone or skunked beyond recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Like the gradient pattern..probably good for me too. I'm cool with you getting some action on this coastal, long as I don't changeover to plain rain. Wouldn't mind a crust for my 2 ft. LOL. Rooting for you, appreciate your posts on here. I know how you feel this year cuz its how I felt last year. Gradient pattern would make a lot of people smile from you down thru nne and at least cne thanks its cool i love this board because you get to share in a snowstorm and some BIG ones........ the past couple of years has been crazy from a met aspect....yesterdays storm was incredible the way Will and the mets were showing how the convection wrapped back into the CCB ...insane... this past storm was wierd, a GOM track will usually deliver some snow 3-6 type deal to me.....yesterday 6-10 just 30 miles south while i saw just a dusting...incredibly sharp cutoff........ the secondary took off a bit late i think to really crank to the NW.....or perhaps it was the subsidence induced by the primary i dont know.. honestly, i always have snow on the ground even if its only a few inches (like the past couple years).... so missing storms doesnt bother me too much......the other night when SNE were getting blitzed, i was logged on and it was 2AM we had light snow in the air and it was about -30C with the wind cranking around the storm.....i dont like cold, but its always easier to take the misses when it still looks and feels like winter outside. i honestly dont know how people in the MA do it, snow lovers that is...i would go insane. btw, it looks to me on the 12z euro you would get hammered with a lot of qpf and pretty close to all frozen i imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Mission 1: Not lose the snowpack: guidance trend: accomplished in the prog. Mission 2: Build the snowpack: guidance trend: accomplished in the prog Mission 3: Not flip the pattern to warm like JB has said will happen: accomplished in the prog. Big winter unfolding....believers join the 3 old men and we'll give you some wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 and far interior folks to tell your plow guy to push the snow back a little further and make some room We get it Mark.....Jesus, I'm not sure which it rather hear....you crying for a day when you thought the last one would miss, or this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Always has to be a suck-azz grinch storm after the biggies...almost without fail....by the time the cold returns, your pack is either gone or skunked beyond recognition. Did not happen in 2005. Will not happen now. Net gain or no loss Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Did not happen in 2005. Will not happen now. Net gain or no loss Tues/Wed. Every other one this decade has been followed by one.....I was hoping to slip into a cold, dry pattern for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'd have to go dig through some threads; but believe Jerry made a triple point prediction for next week. Thanks Jason. Yes I responded: triple point and I think Will validated the possibility yesterday. Back several pages in this thread I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I feel like its been a few years since we got a decent clipper here in CT...mostly everything in the past couple seasons has either dried up and not dropped much in the way of snow or missed us south or north. Hopefully we can squeeze out a couple inches this weekend...we're clearly overdue. As for next week...my gut says this is a snow to slop to rain scenario for most. Maybe parts of the interior can hold on to some cold air to stay frozen. Other than hoping for a quick front end bump...those of us on the coast can pretty much write this one off from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thanks Jason. Yes I responded: triple point and I think Will validated the possibility yesterday. Back several pages in this thread I think. Triple point is likely and would give a shot at a net gain, but we'll have to see what happens....either way, this one is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Every other one this decade has been followed by one.....I was hoping to slip into a cold, dry pattern for awhile. Screw dry. Cold and wet much better. We'll get 1-2 Saturday night. We'll get 3-6 with ice and a triple point dry slot Tues/Wed. We'll get DEEP cold and an Arctic Miller B nuke around D11. Huge winter unfolding and if you don't want to believe me, turn around and look out your window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Always has to be a suck-azz grinch storm after the biggies...almost without fail....by the time the cold returns, your pack is either gone or skunked beyond recognition. I wouldn't worry about it...it might not be that bad..and even if it rains it'll be like 34 degree rain with the secondary..and your area likes to keep a NNE ageostrophic drain..won't lose much pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Screw dry. Cold and wet much better. We'll get 1-2 Saturday night. We'll get 3-6 with ice and a triple point dry slot Tues/Wed. We'll get DEEP cold and an Arctic Miller B nuke around D11. Huge winter unfolding and if you don't want to believe me, turn around and look out your window. I said nothing of the rest of the winter, but I just don't like the looks of this next one....all I said. Folks west of I 495 will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Triple point is likely and would give a shot at a net gain, but we'll have to see what happens....either way, this one is a mess. A given I think. But our snowpack would need a much more robust attack than being advertised. With this much water in the pack, it will not go down easily like the last one which even held despite a 3 day torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Thanks Jason. Yes I responded: triple point and I think Will validated the possibility yesterday. Back several pages in this thread I think. It doesn't look as if you guys would lose that much snow...the event is probably going to start as snow/mix in SNE, and a track off the coast will ensure that temperatures don't get much beyond the upper 30s. The warm-up is also very brief as the storm eventually bombs out and brings down the colder 850s...ECM brings back moderate cold after that, there's a light snow event around Day 8, and then a very potent clipper bringing down the PV. It honestly doesn't look like a 1996 type meltdown to me, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I wouldn't worry about it...it might not be that bad..and even if it rains it'll be like 34 degree rain with the secondary..and your area likes to keep a NNE ageostrophic drain..won't lose much pack You and Will may hardly break freezing....I will def. rain, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Jerry's D11 "threat", which is more like day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 You and Will may hardly break freezing....I will def. rain, at least. I think Will has a better shot of that.. I wouldn't mind getting some ice into the snowpack at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think Will has a better shot of that.. I wouldn't mind getting some ice into the snowpack at all I would bet on some ice for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I said nothing of the rest of the winter, but I just don't like the looks of this next one....all I said. Folks west of I 495 will be fine. actually, Euro is pretty warm for everyone, last night and 12Z today with ORH getting up to +3.5C and well over an inch qpf but the way its been jumping around, Jerry could easily be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If it gets above freezing there will be a net loss in areas that piled up two feet of fluff. It's just inevitable that the stuff will compress/sublimate etc. and even 3-6" of wetter snow and ice will collapse the snow pack. But the quality and water content of what survives may last right to Spring. Where it was wet snow near the E. MA coast then that's another story. Almost 9 inches here yesterday..easily over 12" on the ground where it doesn't blow to hell. I think we are good for a few from this clipper over the weekend so I'll look at that first for my backyard. FWIW ...ALB got 13" from the coastal storm, but I'm further west..... I wouldn't worry about it...it might not be that bad..and even if it rains it'll be like 34 degree rain with the secondary..and your area likes to keep a NNE ageostrophic drain..won't lose much pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 actually, Euro is pretty warm for everyone, last night and 12Z today with ORH getting up to +3.5C and well over an inch qpf but the way its been jumping around, Jerry could easily be right 2m temps aren't 3.5 c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Jerry's D11 "threat", which is more like day 9-10. D9--10 is ok but D11 looks like a potential bomb is brewing....with a renewed attack of cold behind it. Love the runs today excluding the limited potential for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2m temps aren't 3.5 c +2.3/+.8C (.37"), +2.7/+3.5 (.72") & +1.7/-1.4 (.28") per Euro Mos starting w/the first 6-hr period when substantial precip falls and I included that qpf after surface/850 temps a portion of the .05" that falls before main precip may fall as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 actually, Euro is pretty warm for everyone, last night and 12Z today with ORH getting up to +3.5C and well over an inch qpf but the way its been jumping around, Jerry could easily be right I'm falling back on climo more than I am that run, verbatim because models will always try to drive the warmth through the ORH hills and it just won't happen with any semblance of a triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm falling back on climo more than I am that run, verbatim because models will always try to drive the warmth through the ORH hills and it just won't happen with any sebelance of a triple point. well, I said early in the season it would be a NE winter in light of the NINA and it has, so as often happens in NINA's, you guys find a way to pull it out fwiw, Euro website has the 12Z run now here's the link starting Day 5 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011011312!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 2M temps are absolutely horrible to look at this far out...anyways, given the high to the north I would expect the 2M temps would be much colder than the models are showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Always has to be a suck-azz grinch storm after the biggies...almost without fail....by the time the cold returns, your pack is either gone or skunked beyond recognition. Well, at least you will have 5 days to admire your snow. Awesome for you yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Mission 1: Not lose the snowpack: guidance trend: accomplished in the prog. Mission 2: Build the snowpack: guidance trend: accomplished in the prog Mission 3: Not flip the pattern to warm like JB has said will happen: accomplished in the prog. Big winter unfolding....believers join the 3 old men and we'll give you some wisdom. Pete's not that old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 actually, Euro is pretty warm for everyone, last night and 12Z today with ORH getting up to +3.5C and well over an inch qpf but the way its been jumping around, Jerry could easily be right If the euro track verifies, ORH will not be that warm. Rip and read temps FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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