Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wheels on the bus go round and round. My Juju is flowin' The maps speak for themselvesl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensembles look right over the outer Cape, or just a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensembles look right over the outer Cape, or just a hair east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluefishskip Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 First time poster, long time fan of the site. Pete Bouchard on Channel 7 just went with 12-16 through SE Mass, with a 16+ jackpot in the 495/95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AWT......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The beauty about this is it doesn't appear that there is much that can go wrong at all really, just about everyone should see at least 8''....except of course the outer cape perhaps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone got thoughts about a deform here in the foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think anyone posted this earlier but here's the GGEM ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Huh--I don't see a section their for 18z ens. Up top under "other ewalls" choose MREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Up top under "other ewalls" choose MREF. thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z RGEM Looks in line with all other guidance. Zoomed in QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone got thoughts about a deform here in the foothills? Sure. No, wait... I don't care, actually. I hope it only snows here, back in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree, but at least is in consideration - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 First time poster, long time fan of the site. Pete Bouchard on Channel 7 just went with 12-16 through SE Mass, with a 16+ jackpot in the 495/95 corridor. Hi welcome to the party, Did you bring beer? We will need a keg, gosh this party is cranking, Jerry spinning right now cranking some Biggie mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Added to this thread. Snippet from BOX AFD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... GULF OF MEXICO STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN USA MOVES UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STORM PATH THAT TAKES THE CENTER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NAM THEN DIVERGES LEFT WITH A PATH TOWARD THE MAINE COAST WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS TRACK THE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE CONSENSUS TRACK...TRENDING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...IS CONSISTENT WITH PAST MODEL RUNS AND IS FAVORED. THE TRACK FAVORS SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF MIXING OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MELTED QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0.8 INCHES OVER CHESHIRE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH COAST. RAPID DEEPENING WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FORECAST TO FALL FROM 1002 MB TO 982 MB IN 12 HOURS CENTERED ON 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 50-55 KNOTS AT 2000-3000 FEET. EXCELLANT DENDRITIC GROWTH IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LIFT...20 MICROBARS PER SECOND OR ROUGHLY 70 MB PER HOUR...OVER CT-RI- SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPS ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. QPF/TEMPS/LIFT SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN CT- RI AND ADJACENT MASS. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. NANTUCKET IS NOT IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH BUT WILL HAVE THE STRONG WINDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I think the winds are being underforecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi welcome to the party, Did you bring beer? We will need a keg, gosh this party is cranking, Jerry spinning right now cranking some Biggie mix. And a couple of handles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree, but at least is in consideration - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. John, the HPC Winter Graphics based off the SREF's don't show much in the way of Blizzard Criteria for the majority of us right now. That could change in the next 24h though. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wheels on the bus go round and round. My Juju is flowin' The maps speak for themselvesl. Man, I wish that would show Litchfield county. Well, I'm off for a little while. My grandma's here, she has alzheimers. It's getting pretty bad, I want to cry. See ya guys later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I disagree, but at least is in consideration - WILL THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS? POSSIBLY...HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 1/4 MILE VSBYS AT TIMES AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD AT LEAST GUST NEAR 35 MPH...STRONGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE NEAR BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF RI AND EASTERN MASS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO MOVE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH. I agree with Kevin here, I think the winds could certainly be underforecasted. Within the heaviest bands of snow there should be some embedded convection with such great lift and some instability I think the chances are pretty good someone gets thunder/lightning. With such great downward motion too that should help transfer down some of the stronger winds. Not sure what bufkit has though, having issues with bufkit so it's not running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 John, the HPC Winter Graphics based off the SREF's don't show much in the way of Blizzard Criteria for the majority of us right now. That could change in the next 24h though. http://www.hpc.ncep....impactgraphics/ I don't want the winds...give me S+ and light winds please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't want the winds...give me S+ and light winds please. Agreed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think official blizzard criteria will be tough to meet except for a few areas near the coast/SE MA/RI. This shouldn't be like Boxing Day where there was widespread 30-40kt+ winds even in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man the Berks need snow, hope they get some high ratios, nice inflow should put a nice max zone at 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man the Berks need snow, hope they get some high ratios, nice inflow should put a nice max zone at 2k Running a little skimpy there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think official blizzard criteria will be tough to meet except for a few areas near the coast/SE MA/RI. This shouldn't be like Boxing Day where there was widespread 30-40kt+ winds even in the interior. Agree but still whiteout due to intensity, North shore should be sick combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man the Berks need snow, hope they get some high ratios, nice inflow should put a nice max zone at 2k According to MRG there's deep deep snow on the ground and has been since late Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If I had to guess an area to feel "comfortable" in..(not necessarily the max), I'd say near BOS up to Ray and wsw through ORH into CT. I'm concerned with a track close to the Cape for places in se mass, but they could still get the jackpot...I'm just talking about the areas that should do well, taking everything into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't want the winds...give me S+ and light winds please. couldnt agree more,the winds during the blizzard 2 weeks ago made huge green patches everywhere made it look crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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