Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People really can't tell the difference between 10'' and 12''...unless of course they measure it. What are the chances EVERYONE in the entire state gets 12'' of snow? There's always some locations that come in with just a bit less. I doubt the difference of 2'' is going to change the intimidation factor of people. Once the public hears a foot of snow or more...they take notice..below that to them it's manageable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 PYM to EWB jackpot? I would say its a bit NW of that. Well, i said "similar"....not exact.......I like Norwood for the conventional jackpot and the "shock the world" jackpot near Princeton and Jaffrey. BTW, DT has ACK in 12"+.....his maps are not very detailed and pay no respect to local climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am going 2-20 inches for southern New England...that will verify I'm sure but north shore, MA.....solid 12-16 inches, might see an 18 or an overestimated 20 pop up in winchester or something LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What are you talking about? What models am I going against? I'm a bit worried that the GFS is so far east with the mid level lows and late in closing them off. I see no models with a QPF max in the Litchfield hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see expectations rising with nearly every post....are we all of the sudden expecting 2" of qpf? I do think someone will get 18 or 20 to 1 ratios in a nasty band somewhere...but an inch of qpf is hard to turn into a widespread 15"+ storm. The storm is going to be dynamic as hell so its certainly possible to see a lot of 12"+ amounts....but the 20-30" talk is excessive IMHO. Lets see if we can get a bit more of a signal for that other than some weenie NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Once the public hears a foot of snow or more...they take notice..below that to them it's manageable people only listen to the high number anyway. I'm really not sure what I'm going to go with yet... I'm not sold everyone gets 12"+... or even 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You are impressive, ten would scare most ladies I know. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will this get a decent score on the NESIS? Good deal of population being affected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see expectations rising with nearly every post....are we all of the sudden expecting 2" of qpf? I do think someone will get 18 or 20 to 1 ratios in a nasty band somewhere...but an inch of qpf is hard to turn into a widespread 15"+ storm. The storm is going to be dynamic as hell so its certainly possible to see a lot of 12"+ amounts....but the 20-30" talk is excessive IMHO. Lets see if we can get a bit more of a signal for that other than some weenie NAM runs. I mentioned earlier it's very possible we'd see a couple 30 inch amounts..which I truly believe..though i don't think it's Jaffrey NH... I think 12-18 with lolli's to 20 is very reasonable for a met to put out as a forecast based on everything we have in front of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see expectations rising with nearly every post....are we all of the sudden expecting 2" of qpf? I do think someone will get 18 or 20 to 1 ratios in a nasty band somewhere...but an inch of qpf is hard to turn into a widespread 15"+ storm. The storm is going to be dynamic as hell so its certainly possible to see a lot of 12"+ amounts....but the 20-30" talk is excessive IMHO. Lets see if we can get a bit more of a signal for that other than some weenie NAM runs. Agree 12-16 should be good to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will this get a decent score on the NESIS? Good deal of population being affected wait till the snow actually begins to fall before we talk about the storms legacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Once the public hears a foot of snow or more...they take notice..below that to them it's manageable Are you kidding? People freak out in this state over 3'' of snowfall, stores become packed...everyone acts like they will not be able to get food for weeks. Plus when you mention a range of snowfall totals people ALWAYS pay attention to the higher number you have listed rather than the lowest number you have listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will this get a decent score on the NESIS? Good deal of population being affected No, its really only SNE that will probably get a lot of 12"+ amounts. There could be some in NYC metro but it really tapers off SW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 people only listen to the high number anyway. I'm really not sure what I'm going to go with yet... I'm not sold everyone gets 12"+... or even 8"+ Here is why the GFS offers more confusion than help.. every other piece of model guidance offer 12 inches at least...yet since an 18z GFS op run doesn't ..people actually consider it an option...even when it's own ensembles are much juicier. You've got to stop using the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see expectations rising with nearly every post....are we all of the sudden expecting 2" of qpf? I do think someone will get 18 or 20 to 1 ratios in a nasty band somewhere...but an inch of qpf is hard to turn into a widespread 15"+ storm. The storm is going to be dynamic as hell so its certainly possible to see a lot of 12"+ amounts....but the 20-30" talk is excessive IMHO. Lets see if we can get a bit more of a signal for that other than some weenie NAM runs. i was afraid if i posted that it would be construed as sour grapes. when you start getting into the 20-30 range you honestly start entering the upper echelon of SNE events. this doesn't have that written all over it. it could very well be a good one that lots of folks remember and such, but 30" is very hard to come by...especially when something is cranking in and out of here in such a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I mentioned earlier it's very possible we'd see a couple 30 inch amounts..which I truly believe..though i don't think it's Jaffrey NH... I think 12-18 with lolli's to 20 is very reasonable for a met to put out as a forecast based on everything we have in front of us How are going to get 30 inches in a storm that moves along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I see expectations rising with nearly every post....are we all of the sudden expecting 2" of qpf? I do think someone will get 18 or 20 to 1 ratios in a nasty band somewhere...but an inch of qpf is hard to turn into a widespread 15"+ storm. The storm is going to be dynamic as hell so its certainly possible to see a lot of 12"+ amounts....but the 20-30" talk is excessive IMHO. Lets see if we can get a bit more of a signal for that other than some weenie NAM runs. The EURO gave n NJ 1" of QPF right before the blizzard and it worked out pretty well for them. I'm not sure why you keep hammering away on that; we all know that no professional should relay that to their clients, but storms like this are capable of that. I'd go 9-18" if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here is why the GFS offers more confusion than help.. every other piece of model guidance offer 12 inches at least...yet since an 18z GFS op run doesn't ..people actually consider it an option...even when it's own ensembles are much juicier. You've got to stop using the GFS So I should use the NAM instead? Dude, come on. The Euro isn't exactly railing us with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How are going to get 30 inches in a storm that moves along? How did they do it in Jersey 2 weeks ago..or Albany in Christmas 2003..or countless others that moved along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The only way we see totals get over 20'' is with the CCB setting up over someone for a good 3-4 hours. I do think this is certainly possible as I did mention in my map some isolated amounts of 24-28'' are possible. I think we could see 3-5''/HR snowfall rates within the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I should use the NAM instead? Dude, come on. The Euro isn't exactly railing us with QPF East of HFD has 1.25 on the Euro and an inch west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i was afraid if i posted that it would be construed as sour grapes. when you start getting into the 20-30 range you honestly start entering the upper echelon of SNE events. this doesn't have that written all over it. it could very well be a good one that lots of folks remember and such, but 30" is very hard to come by...especially when something is cranking in and out of here in such a short period of time. Yeppers exactly where the 20 plus started is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How did they do it in Jersey 2 weeks ago..or Albany in Christmas 2003..or countless others that moved along? Insane banding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Insane banding... Take your weenie and head to the front of the class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i was afraid if i posted that it would be construed as sour grapes. when you start getting into the 20-30 range you honestly start entering the upper echelon of SNE events. this doesn't have that written all over it. it could very well be a good one that lots of folks remember and such, but 30" is very hard to come by...especially when something is cranking in and out of here in such a short period of time. If amounts over 20" occurred....I think they will be confined to a relatively narrow area where a band from hell sets up for a long duration. The storm simply isn't long duration enough for this to be a HECS. Maybe that will change at the last second, and we see a 06z NAM type run from last night where it prolongs the heavier snow...but until that happens, I think people need to realize that you might end up with 7-10" if you miss out on banding or are just unlucky. Its possible too that we see a ton of high end MECS amounts too, but expecting that as the floor for this storm is setting yourself up for disappointment. The one positive I'll say is that qpf has slowly been rising amongst the consensus of guidance rather than decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 people only listen to the high number anyway. I'm really not sure what I'm going to go with yet... I'm not sold everyone gets 12"+... or even 8"+ Uptons call of 8-14 for most of the state seems pretty good IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I should use the NAM instead? Dude, come on. The Euro isn't exactly railing us with QPF 8-16 with the option to raise it later. I cant remember ever seeing the entire state getting 12+ everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How did they do it in Jersey 2 weeks ago..or Albany in Christmas 2003..or countless others that moved along? Maybe but the mid level centers have to be absolutely in the sweet spot. What can go wrong? Failure to get the H7 low in synch in time. A track too far east (less likely), bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How did they do it in Jersey 2 weeks ago..or Albany in Christmas 2003..or countless others that moved along? Peabody, MA had 36" in Dec 2003....my dad had 26" W ME had near 30" in Dec of 2008....the 2nd of the double barrel events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 people only listen to the high number anyway. I'm really not sure what I'm going to go with yet... I'm not sold everyone gets 12"+... or even 8"+ Why not 8"? Western areas too far away or mixing at the shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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