cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Agree 12-16 should be good to start like ryan says i'm kinda lookin at the gfs and the ML centers.....seems messenger is trying to will that solution to fruition. Matt noyes says 495 down to E Ct. for Jpot.....so i guess i'll go with him. poor bigrombalski.......she says her snowblower can only handle 6 inches...........pretty sad LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The EURO gave n NJ 1" of QPF right before the blizzard and it worked out pretty well for them. I'm not sure why you keep hammering away on that; we all know that no professional should relay that to their clients, but storms like this are capable of that. I'd go 9-18" if I were you. The difference is that the H7 low pivoted right over them. I'm not quite sure we'll see the H7 low stall and pivot like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If amounts over 20" occurred....I think they will be confined to a relatively narrow area where a band from hell sets up for a long duration. The storm simply isn't long duration enough for this to be a HECS. Maybe that will change at the last second, and we see a 06z NAM type run from last night where it prolongs the heavier snow...but until that happens, I think people need to realize that you might end up with 7-10" if you miss out on banding or are just unlucky. Its possible too that we see a ton of high end MECS amounts too, but expecting that as the floor for this storm is setting yourself up for disappointment. The one positive I'll say is that qpf has slowly been rising amongst the consensus of guidance rather than decreasing. Who is expecting those amounts? They are mentioned as a possibility because there is a chance some spots see those type of amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Take your weenie and head to the front of the class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference is that the H7 low pivoted right over them. I'm not quite sure we'll see the H7 low stall and pivot like that. yeah i was just going to say that. the mid-level features essentially "stalled" there because of the way that one made the NW then E jog. so they got clobbered on the pivot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The EURO gave n NJ 1" of QPF right before the blizzard and it worked out pretty well for them. I'm not sure why you keep hammering away on that; we all know that no professional should relay that to their clients, but storms like this are capable of that. I'd go 9-18" if I were you. Sure its capable of dumping 2 feet on someone if it works out perfect, but perfection is not easy to attain in every storm. Its possible nobody anywhere sees those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Peabody, MA had 36" in Dec 2003....my dad had 26" W ME had near 30" in Dec of 2008....the 2nd of the double barrel events. Right..the areas that get that are small..and impossible to predict where..but the chance is certainly good enough to be mentioned. I would if I was on air..Just mention amts like that in a few select spots are within the realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems like there is quite a bit of confusion, I don't think anyone is saying widespread 20'' amounts...the people who have mentioned those numbers have all said these would be lollipop totals, not widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who is expecting those amounts? They are mentioned as a possibility because there is a chance some spots see those type of amts yeah but think about it...if weenies on here get pissed when someone puts out a range of 9-14 and they only get 10...think what people who don't know crap about the weather think when they hear 12 to 18 with some spots seeing 24 to 30. all they hear is 24 to 30. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 minutes....another 30 minutes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference is that the H7 low pivoted right over them. I'm not quite sure we'll see the H7 low stall and pivot like that. Ok....I realize it takes a fluke of luck and I already said that I expect around 1'.....even if someone does greab 25", I don't expect it to be me because of where the cf is likely to set up. I'm not going to flip out if I don't get 2'.....I know that is what Will is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference is that the H7 low pivoted right over them. I'm not quite sure we'll see the H7 low stall and pivot like that. Yeah that's going to prevent this from really going crazy in any given location. I'm worried that the H7 low starts to wrap up too late for my region and areas in E MA could cash in. I saw the WSI RPM/WRF really goes nuts with the CCB pretty far west... basically north of NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Seems like there is quite a bit of confusion, I don't think anyone is saying widespread 20'' amounts...the people who have mentioned those numbers have all said these would be lollipop totals, not widespread. Yes This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference is that the H7 low pivoted right over them. I'm not quite sure we'll see the H7 low stall and pivot like that. let's let that sink in. i would think i nice 8-12 snow is on the way with lolli of 16 -18 why people try to set themselves up for something less stellar is beyond me. i really am not gonna have much patience if someone gets 14 inches and is bitching. i mean it is their perrogative but it is mine to b**ch back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are you kidding? People freak out in this state over 3'' of snowfall, stores become packed...everyone acts like they will not be able to get food for weeks. Plus when you mention a range of snowfall totals people ALWAYS pay attention to the higher number you have listed rather than the lowest number you have listed. People bug out in this state whenever a "major" snowstorm is forecast all thanks to '78. the likely hood of that ever repeating(in terms of shuting down the state for three days etc.) is very remote...but people are paranoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Right..the areas that get that are small..and impossible to predict where..but the chance is certainly good enough to be mentioned. I would if I was on air..Just mention amts like that in a few select spots are within the realm of possibility Totally agree...and it is pretty impossible to predict exactly where right now, this is why I basically have that broad area on my map, as we get closer and get a better idea than you can fine tune these sort of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yeah but think about it...if weenies on here get pissed when someone puts out a range of 9-14 and they only get 10...think what people who don't know crap about the weather think when they hear 12 to 18 with some spots seeing 24 to 30. all they hear is 24 to 30. LOL. Right....I already said that I wouldn't mention that if I were a pro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The last two years have been tough on sne as a whole. It seems its been a long time since all of sne saw a uniform event, region wide, this should be that storm. I think the enthusiasm is to be expected because of the aforementioned statement. This looks like a fantastic daytime storm, especially east of the Ct. River, I hope everyone cashes in and nobody is left out. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yeah but think about it...if weenies on here get pissed when someone puts out a range of 9-14 and they only get 10...think what people who don't know crap about the weather think when they hear 12 to 18 with some spots seeing 24 to 30. all they hear is 24 to 30. LOL. LOL..all I know is what I expect in MBY 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Who is expecting those amounts? They are mentioned as a possibility because there is a chance some spots see those type of amts Well after last storm when people were kind of disappointed over 12"...I think its reasonable to say those types of amounts are unlikely....even if its meteorologically possible. If we see more signs of a mid-level capture and subsequent 6 hour stall....then we can consider the possibility a bit more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah that's going to prevent this from really going crazy in any given location. I'm worried that the H7 low starts to wrap up too late for my region and areas in E MA could cash in. I saw the WSI RPM/WRF really goes nuts with the CCB pretty far west... basically north of NYC! Yeah I've been watching that. It's come west, but the model can do strange things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People bug out in this state whenever a "major" snowstorm is forecast all thanks to '78. the likely hood of that ever repeating(in terms of shuting down the state for three days etc.) is very remote...but people are paranoid I might just take a gander into Stop & Shop tomorrow and witness all the craziness that will be ensuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL..all I know is what I expect in MBY 13-14 Good solid expectations...10-12 are mine. If I had to go on the air I would say 10+ for the state, 12+ eastern half, some areas possibly 15 or more and some possibly 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ironically...another today's temps were exactly normal. This month is going to have trouble finishing subnormal in many places. Not that's warm but 35/23 is normal for BOS on 1/11. We're +3.9 and nothing terribly cold is in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I might just take a gander into Stop & Shop tomorrow and witness all the craziness that will be ensuing. We went the sunday after Christmas and it was a zoo at 7 in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No, its really only SNE that will probably get a lot of 12"+ amounts. There could be some in NYC metro but it really tapers off SW of that. Oh, I thought more in NY/NJ would be affected. Whatever.. I'll be happy with 8", expecting 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd like to see forecast amounts from Will, Phil, Scooter, Tip tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Out for the night, good luck for all with the 0 Z runs. Bringing back kegs and also JD for dryslut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ok....I realize it takes a fluke of luck and I already said that I expect around 1'.....even if someone does greab 25", I don't expect it to be me because of where the cf is likely to set up. I'm not going to flip out if I don't get 2'.....I know that is what Will is thinking. This may be a little more juiced up, and if it slows..I suppose a 20-24" amount is possible, but I would never go for that right now...unless 00z does something crazy. I know what you mean though, you're saying it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well after last storm when people were kind of disappointed over 12"...I think its reasonable to say those types of amounts are unlikely....even if its meteorologically possible. If we see more signs of a mid-level capture and subsequent 6 hour stall....then we can consider the possibility a bit more seriously. When people get disappointed over getting just that and start expecting insane totals that's their fault for expecting it I think we could certainly see some isolated totals >20'' but in no way, shape or form am I expecting to see that occur here nor will I be disappointed if it doesn't happen. I expect at least a good 10'' here, so if I end up with around that I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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