aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That wxmx dude seems to be pretty sure the cold is coming....hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 QPF is no problem when the air is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 If you MUST live in the Mid Atl - Living in Maryland is a must. Marylanders do well in snows that narrowly miss DCA and N VA. Just look at last night. MD got 3 to 7 inches easy, while we agonized over two super skinny snowbands that barely gave us our third half inch blizzard of the memorable 2010-2011 season. IN the Mid Atlantic - Maryland is THE place to be for good snows. I've seen it happen time after time while I cried over a dusting to half an inch - and THIS winter is definitely one of those near miss winters in N VA. This winter, one inch of snow is snowmageddon in DCA. The real kicker is: I am never gonna get out of here. I might as well be in prison. I am serving a life sentence in N VA. I was living near Great Falls Park in Va back in the '70s. Can't tell you how many times I'd do the drive from DC to McLean/Great Falls and watch the snow rates go up as I came north up the drive paralleling the river. Eventually, I had to make a choice of NOVA/I-395 corridor or go back to Md., where my roots are. Decision was simple -- I couldn't bare the thought of doing the I-395 drive every day during rush hour. Gradually worked my way from Silver Spring back to Columbia -- a great location, IMO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Local LWX evening forecast actually mentions rain or snow MLK Day, which is a slight trend/implication toward colder daytime temps. It'll be back to rain by showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That wxmx dude seems to be pretty sure the cold is coming....hope so If the NAO tanks again I'd assume cold will win. The verdict seems out in the 10d+ range. If it holds off much longer I don't see severe cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We'll know soon enough. If the Nao starts tanking then we know the cold is on its way. The models right now are on and off showing the -NAO so we have such diverse outcomes. I am leaning towards the blockiness coming back just because of past history of a strong, consistent -NAO in the early part of the winter. In reply to Lee 'That wxmx dude seems to be pretty sure the cold is coming....hope so ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 A family pet ferret chewed off an infant's fingers, leaving the child with just two thumbs and a pinky in a home in Missouri. read this on the WUSA website....lack of snow not so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 A family pet ferret chewed off an infant's fingers, leaving the child with just two thumbs and a pinky in a home in Missouri. read this on the WUSA website....lack of snow not so bad dave johnson went dark today on facebook. I bet his wife chewed him out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Snow Chase anyone......Knew it snows up there, can't recall ever seeing a WSW for snow there though. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 331 AM HST WED JAN 12 2011 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SUMMITS ABOVE 11000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. HIZ028-130245- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0001.110112T2200Z-110114T0400Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.WS.W.0001.110112T1331Z-110114T0400Z/ BIG ISLAND SUMMITS- INCLUDING...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET 331 AM HST WED JAN 12 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TOTAL NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 11000 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE SUMMITS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER POSTPONING ANY TRIPS TO THE SUMMIT UNTIL AFTER THE INCLEMENT WEATHER PASSES. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ BRENCHLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Snow Chase anyone......Knew it snows up there, can't recall ever seeing a WSW for snow there though. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 331 AM HST WED JAN 12 2011 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SUMMITS ABOVE 11000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. I really wanna shred some pineapple pow one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS ensemble looks colder then the op. Doesn't have a southeast ridge in the long range. are they the same ensembles that consistently gave us between .25-5" qpf for yesterday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 are they the same ensembles that consistently gave us between .25-5" qpf for yesterday's storm? Are the same ensembles that do the best in the long-medium range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 QPF is no problem when the air is warm. Soon as we get 40s or 50s with a storm - that storm will NOT swerve around us. qpf will be at least an inch, with local 1.5 inch lollis over Woodbridge VA and over DCA - and the rain will fall unabated for three days as the storm gets captured right off Va. Beach, VA and spins in place for a whole week. We'll end up like Brisbane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 QPF is no problem when the air is warm. The most depressing-accurate statement I've seen here in awhile. At this rate we'll be talking about April's rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I really wanna shred some pineapple pow one day. HI is good for weather fiends and fans of microclimate. Last time I was there, I was playing golf in shorts at sea level and my wife was riding an ice sheet towards a cliff on a bike at the top of a volcano - within 3 hours of each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Are the same ensembles that do the best in the long-medium range? if that is true, and I don't know if it is or you are questioning them, they ain't much better than a crap shoot and considering they were spitting out twice the qpf than what verified for a very large area < 24 hours in advance of the event, we should just ask why even look at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Soon as we get 40s or 50s with a storm - that storm will NOT swerve around us. qpf will be at least an inch, with local 1.5 inch lollis over Woodbridge VA and over DCA - and the rain will fall unabated for three days as the storm gets captured right off Va. Beach, VA and spins in place for a whole week. We'll end up like Brisbane lol Well, yeah. It's not just coincidence. with 40's/50's there usually is no strong high, blocking or very dry air to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 more for entertainment purposes, but I just love how the polar vortex just heads south into Canada on tonight's NAM run seems so easy http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if that is true, and I don't know if it is or you are questioning them, they ain't much better than a crap shoot and considering they were spitting out twice the qpf than what verified for a very large area < 24 hours in advance of the event, we should just ask why even look at them The ensembles are good at sniffing out a storm, not predicting the storm itself. They had a nor'easter for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 more for entertainment purposes, but I just love how the polar vortex just heads south into Canada on tonight's NAM run seems so easy http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml It might be that easy...2 days ago there were temps of -30 to -50 widespread in eastern Siberia on GREarth...tonight that region has warmed to -5 to -30 and along the far eastern Siberian area temps are in the +30's. Meanwhile northern Canada/eastern Alaska has cooled off. Where did the cold air go...it is crossing the pole evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS looks interesting...a bit colder/more confluence. We start off with light flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 snow to ice for western burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hmm, GFS keeps trending a bit colder with that storm at 120. Starts frozen, but majority is liquid, but Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'd think we'd see a bit more CAD with a 1031 H in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hmm, GFS keeps trending a bit colder with that storm at 120. Starts frozen, but majority is liquid, but Who knows Euro is always 300 miles south and east....i wonder if the euro will cave to the superior GFS again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My weenie side is kicking in. I'm thinking this clipper could drop a surprise inch or two on saturday. I just want any snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Its definitely something to keep an eye on...major changes vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro is always 300 miles south and east....i wonder if the euro will cave to the superior GFS again Probably, but the GFS is vastly different than 12z so who knows. Strange that the High is in a good spot but we still get rain for the majority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_132l.gif You would think with a high in Quebec and a high in the Northern Plains we'd see a nice cold wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 its a strange track for what i am seeing at 500mb...i would think it would be south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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