October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Benjamn3]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

December 23. That’s when I’ll be out of town, so we know when to book that first snow

 

[TSSN+]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If you're practicing for winter early, trust me when I say you don't need the practice.

Geez, at least wait until it can reasonably snow throughout the area, and that will likely be a while this year.

 

He can’t help himself. Lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

[pazzo83]

34 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

I feel like given the raging El Niño, the torch risk is just going to be ever-present.

[TSSN+]

Long range looks pretty zzzz for the time being. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Long range looks pretty zzzz for the time being. 

Well all of a sudden there’s this giant quasi stationary low offshore forming at the tail end of tomorrow’s cold front. That’s worth watching.

[AlexD1990]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Well all of a sudden there’s this giant quasi stationary low offshore forming at the tail end of tomorrow’s cold front. That’s worth watching.

DT was comparing it to the perfect storm on FB. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Long range looks pretty zzzz for the time being. 

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…

Did you forget or ignore the 2-4” we had last weekend?

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did you forget or ignore the 2-4” we had last weekend?

 It gets cancelled out if there’s multiple weeks of next to nothing following it. Remember what happened after late May?

[LP08]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Well all of a sudden there’s this giant quasi stationary low offshore forming at the tail end of tomorrow’s cold front. That’s worth watching.

Take a look at the AI Euro, backs it into the coast and gets rain to us by Wed night-Thusday of next week.

[TSSN+]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…

October wasn’t expected to be that wet. The above normals start Nov and especially Dec 

[TSSN+]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Well all of a sudden there’s this giant quasi stationary low offshore forming at the tail end of tomorrow’s cold front. That’s worth watching.

RIP mid atl beach coast lines 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Take a look at the AI Euro, backs it into the coast and gets rain to us by Wed night-Thusday of next week.

Op euro similar-ish

22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

RIP mid atl beach coast lines 

Oh yeah that would be a major erosion event 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Did you forget or ignore the 2-4” we had last weekend?

And who cares if we go dry? Anyone growing tomatoes in November? Most of the area is abnormally dry/moderate drought- but NBD in the Fall of the most epic super-Giga Nino of all time. Not like its gonna snow anytime soon, and there will be plenty of precip in the coming months. Gimmie cool/dry over the next 4-6 weeks to optimize the best season to enjoy being outside.

[JenkinsJinkies]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And who cares if we go dry?

Let's see the reservoirs are low enough that susquehanna water has to be mixed into the supply.

DCA is still at a ~6" YTD deficit.

We're going to need every drop we can get in order to recharge the ground water or else we'll be in trouble in 6 months.

The fact that we avoided real water restrictions this year is nothing short of a miracle.

[LP08]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Op euro similar-ish

Oh yeah that would be a major erosion event 

Gfs (hardly usable at this point) looks like it’s caving towards the euro twins.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, LP08 said:

Gfs (hardly usable at this point) looks like it’s caving towards the euro twins.

It's like we gotta treat it almost JV level at this point, right? Not to the degree of it can't be right but just not being able to take it seriously until a certain range?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Let's see the reservoirs are low enough that susquehanna water has to be mixed into the supply.

DCA is still at a ~6" YTD deficit.

We're going to need every drop we can get in order to recharge the ground water or else we'll be in trouble in 6 months.

The fact that we avoided real water restrictions this year is nothing short of a miracle.

Have ya heard? Super El Nino cometh.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Have ya heard? Super El Nino cometh.

My guess is by the end of winter we will be tired of rain. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

My guess is by the end of winter we will be tired of rain. 

I’ve been tired of @JenkinsJinkies schtick for awhile now.

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

My guess is by the end of winter we will be tired of SNOW.

FYP. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 3K NAM lows for Sunday.  

[mappy]

^^ thinking I’ll get down to 32 Sunday morning 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

^^ thinking I’ll get down to 32 Sunday morning 

You're always colder than modeling it seems. I'd say 30-31.

[somecallmetim]

10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’ve been tired of @JenkinsJinkies schtick for awhile now.

The ignore function does wonders.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

You're always colder than modeling it seems. I'd say 30-31.

Have had some chilly mornings already compared to others, so yes I could see that too 

[IronTy]

18 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Let's see the reservoirs are low enough that susquehanna water has to be mixed into the supply.

DCA is still at a ~6" YTD deficit.

We're going to need every drop we can get in order to recharge the ground water or else we'll be in trouble in 6 months.

The fact that we avoided real water restrictions this year is nothing short of a miracle.

According to the drought monitor, most of the area is out of the official drought.  It's abnormally dry still but not significant across the region.  As @CAPE sort of implied, this time of year (and basically til April), soil moisture doesn't really have much of an impact on the flora of the area since it is dormant anyhow.  And the low sun angle and cool temps means any soil moisture sort of just sits there until spring.  

The mistake you're making is assigning the "low reservoir" level to some sort of natural phenomenon.  The only reason there are low reservoirs is that humans created them in the first place and sucked down too much water.  We basically created our own problem. The trees in my yard don't give two shits about whether some DC reservoir is "lower than normal" (normal in this case isn't an actual thing since it isn't a natural process).  The problem isn't too little rain, it's too much demand.  

Random anecdote. I am on well water at my primary residence in Calvert county.  For the past 20yrs I've had a hardness of about 17gpg.  This year all of a sudden my hardness has increased to 30gpg.  I've had to buy a new softener with a higher capacity to deal with it.  Maybe it's due to the drought, I have no idea.  But if it is, it's not nature's fault, it's a side effect of humans tapping in to an underground aquifer. 

 

[AlexD1990]

I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning the possible nor easter next week. seems like modeling is falling into line with at least he possibility of a storm.

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning the possible nor easter next week. seems like modeling is falling into line with at least he possibility of a storm.

12z euro ai = woweeee