October 2026

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

29..we froze

 

RIP growing season

34 here this morning. The peppers and pole lima beans in my garden look fine. The growing season continues here. 

[SACRUS]

From 30 - 64 now blue skies, great late october day

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was +6.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

39 this morning on top of the hill. High of 63

[FPizz]

29 to 61.  Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk.  Trees really popping now

[jm1220]

We’ll crash fast outside the city-winds are pretty calm and dewpoints around 30. I’m pretty confident many drop into the 30s again and maybe near freezing (of course outside the city). 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/23/2026 at 3:01 PM, winterwx21 said:

Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

First of all that drought talk was way overblown. l admit we had a wonderful drought in late 2024 October 2024 was my favorite October of all time. Last year was NOT a drought.  I dont subscribe to inflated averages for rain any more than I do for snow. Last year we had the ideal amount of rain for fall foliage.  This year we had way too much. What the flood mongers and raininistas won't tell you is that TOO MUCH RAIN IS JUST AS BAD FOR FALL FOLIAGE AS TOO LITTLE RAIN.  It's simple science extra water dilutes the color producing chemicals in the leaves and thats why you see muted colors. It's the same reason that drier years produce far better and vintage wines. If we had had this nice dry period a month ago the story would have been different,  the fall foliage season would have been much better.

 

 

12 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

29..we froze

 

RIP growing season

Same 29 here.

 

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Crazy warmth showing later this week into November.  Multiple days of low to mid 70s, maybe upper 70s. Wow

80 would be crazy warm. 70s is not that warm.

 

11 hours ago, FPizz said:

29 here as well

29 was the most common low.

 

10 hours ago, MANDA said:

34 was the low here this morning on top of the hill.  Walpack bottomed out at 22.  High Point got down to 32.

Low lying / valley locations the clear winners this morning on overnight mins.  Perfect conditions for radiational cooling overnight.

Quiet weather continues for the coming week with still no rainfall for the next 7 days at least.

29 here so in between you and Walpack.

 

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Verification:

Allentown: 32°; Actual: 30°
Bridgeport: 38°; Actual: 39°
Danbury: 31°; Actual: 30°
Islip: 40°; Actual: 36°
New York City-Central Park: 43°; Actual: 44°
New York City-JFK Airport: 44°; Actual: 42°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°; Actual: 48°
Newark: 41°; Actual: 39°
Poughkeepsie: 30°; Actual: 28°
Westhampton: 34°; Actual: 28°
White Plains: 37°; Actual: 39° 

Average Error: 2.4°

Mount Pocono Don?

Here are my lows across four sensors:

28.8, 29.1, 29.3 and 29.9

ilI'll say the low was 29 here.  The high was 58.

Don what's the average first 20s low here? Also do you remember what year it was between 2014 and 2019 I remember it was in the teens here with snow squalls around here all day that covered the back deck on or even just before October 20th and even JFK reached freezing on that morning and some reporting stations on the south shore of Nassau County were as low as 28? It was either on a Saturday or Sunday.

 

12 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

30 here; nearby sensors seem to depict local temp inversions between the higher locals and valleys. 

It would be interesting to see if secind story sensors recorded higher temperatures than first story sensors. 

 

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

51 / 36 and another onshore but dry day.  Hit 30.5 here this morning. Overall at or above normal the next week with a few days pushing into the 70s in the warm spots Mon / Thu - Sat and continued dry. Next shot at meaningful rain if something else doesnt materialize this week, would be towars 11/1-11/4 period as trough digs and moves into the MW.

 

 

We could go through the end of the month without any rain shades of October 2024

 

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2001)
NYC: 79 (2001)
LGA:  80 (2001)
JFK: 74 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 31 (1969)
LGA: 30 (1969)
JFK: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)

1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)

 

1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.

1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

1878 storm was that the Saxby Gale? Where did it make landfall?

Note how warm it was around this time in 2001 and how that winter turned out. But it was record cold around this time in 1969 and that winter wasnt snowy either.

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

29 to 61.  Felt nice taking the dogs for a walk.  Trees really popping now

Same 29 low here but the high was 58 here.

 

[Stormlover74]

On 10/23/2026 at 3:01 PM, winterwx21 said:

Looks like mid 30s here tonight, so I think we'll be ok. The vegetable garden will likely continue for quite awhile. 

As others have pointed out, the fall foliage season this year has been strange with some trees early and some late. Overall not as nice as last year too. I was up at Swartwood State Park in Sussex County yesterday, and trees that were a brilliant red/orange at the same time last year didn't have that color yesterday. The color was very muted. Still some nice trees here and there, but nothing like last year. Kind of a surprise too because it was supposed to be a spectacular foliage season due to the fact that we got plenty of rain in summer. Strange that last season was better after the summer drought. 

And I was in Hunterdon county yesterday and there was great color but overall I think its tough to get uniform good or bad color around here. It's usually pretty mixed and seems hard to predict

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Mount Pocono Don?

Here are my lows across four sensors:

28.8, 29.1, 29.3 and 29.9

ilI'll say the low was 29 here.  The high was 58.

Don what's the average first 20s low here? Also do you remember what year it was between 2014 and 2019 I remember it was in the teens here with snow squalls around here all day that covered the back deck on or even just before October 20th and even JFK reached freezing on that morning and some reporting stations on the south shore of Nassau County were as low as 28? It was either on a Saturday or Sunday.

 

This morning's low at Mount Pocono was 27°.

October 17 is the average date for first 20s. Last year's October 10 was earlier than usual.

The only recent year that I recall JFK's reaching 32° in October was 2020 (October 31st). That day, the high-low split for MPO was 39°-22°. That was the coldest October high temperature since 2012 when the high was also 39°. However, since you mentioned a date prior to October 20, that might have been October 19, 2015. The low was 20° but the high reached 49°.

Nothing like that is likely in the near-term. Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the forecast period on the NBM:

That's the period that the NBM has recently shown the most warming from its forecast of 12 hours ago.

[steve392]

Crisp cool night in Kearny, nj at 51.  Feels colder though.  Was very cold this morning after work. 

[steve392]

39 degrees this morning in little ferry. 

[bluewave]

The historic El Nino will he driving a deep trough into the West to close out October. So we get an impressive ridge amplification in the East. Models currently have upper 70s for the usual NJ warm spots on the 30th. Normal highs for the date are in the low 60s.

 

 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
October 30, 2026

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	61	82 in 1946	41 in 1869

[TriPol]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The historic El Nino will he driving a deep trough into the West to close out October. So we get an impressive ridge amplification in the East. Models currently have upper 70s for the usual NJ warm spots on the 30th. Normal highs for the date are in the low 60s.

 

 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
October 30, 2026

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	61	82 in 1946	41 in 1869

Bluewave, is this the beginning of the major storms that batter California during El Ninos?

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Bluewave, is this the beginning of the major storms that batter California during El Ninos?

Yeah, the shift of the trough to the SW CONUS has allowed our area to dry out a bit this month.
 

 

[weathermedic]

25 in Toms River is the coldest reading I see on the 7am NWS Obs roundup.

[FPizz]

29

[qg_omega]

Nice frosty morning, going to be rare in November and December 

[SACRUS]

29.5 here.  Dry / nice stretch continues.  Overall near to above normal with wamest days between thu and Sat mid / upper 70s in the warm spots.   First chance of meaningful rain in the 11/2-11/5 period.  Ridge still pushing into the Upper MW and Canada so should continue to see overall near to above normal temperatures 11/5 - beyond.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)
JFK: 77 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC: 29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board. 

 

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused 8 fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the US.

1925: An F2 tornado moved though Woburn and Stoneham, MA, killing 1 person, injuring 6 others, and unroofing or damaging 75 buildings. This is the strongest tornado on record for so late in the year in New England. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1933: Boston, Massachusetts recorded the highest average one minute wind velocity from the northwest at 63 mph for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1965: Once again, Fort Lauderdale is deluged with heavy rain for the second time in two weeks. 13.81 inches of rain falls in a 48 hour period. Many places were flooded for the second time. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1972: A storm from the Gulf of Mexico moved across North Florida, before striking Charleston and moving up the Appalachians. Very heavy rains of four to eight inches drenched areas around Norfolk, with the 6.29" on the 24th at Norfolk setting a daily rainfall record. (Ref. Late Nineteen Century Hurricanes)

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1982: A major coastal storm brought high winds to the Mid Atlantic, where winds gusted to 82 mph at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Mt. Pisgah, NC picked up 11 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: A major snowstorm pounded Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska through the 26th. 51 inches of snow fell at Coal Creek, CO. 4 feet of snow fell over a wide area. The Denver Broncos nearly missed their flight to Buffalo, NY because of a huge storm that had dumped nearly 22 inches of snow. Known for its snow, Buffalo was actually sunny and mild as the Broncos struggled to get to the airport. 19.3 inches of snow fell at Goodland, KS to establish a new 24 hour snowfall record. A strong north wind whipped the snow into 15 to 20 foot drifts. Most roads were impassable for several days after the snow ended. There were heavy losses to cattle. Behind the storm, some locations reported record low temperatures for the date including: Scottsbluff, NE: 6°, Denver, CO: 8° (record low maximum of 21° later tied on 10/30/1991), Sheridan, WY: 8°, Rapid City, SD: 9°, Dillon, MT: 11°, Livingston, MT: 12°, Casper, WY: 13°, Colorado Springs, CO: 15°, Pocatello, ID: 15°, Goodland, KS: 18° and Billings, MT: 18°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: A winter storm brought heavy snowfall to Colorado Rockies. Snowfall totals of 12 to 22 inches were common over the higher terrain and 6 to 12 inches at lower levels; including Denver. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph at Denver International Airport pushed the snow drifts 3 to 4 feet deep. Thousands were left without power as the weight of the heavy snow snapped tree limbs on to power lines. Snowfall totals included: Aspen Springs: 25 inches, Conifer: 25 inches, Rollinsville: 23.5 inches, Idaho Springs: 23 inches, Blackhawk: 22.5 inches, Bailey: 21.5 inches, Bergen Park: 19 inches, Genesee: 18 inches, Jamestown: 18 inches, Boulder: 17 inches and Evergreen: 16 inches. Denver International Airport started as rain and a thunderstorm before changing to snow. This was after a daytime high of 70°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.

[SACRUS]

Next week East is remaining dry

 

[NorthShoreWx]

Frost on the lawn again this am.  Min 36⁰.  Haven't checked. but the veggies are probably uninjured.  KFOK got down to 27⁰

[lee59]

Mid 30s here with frost.

[uofmiami]

35 in Syosset & 32.7 in Muttontown this morning. 

[psv88]

37…

[MANDA]

With not much else going on I thought this was worthy of sharing.  Thought this was a great video clip.

https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/2114179629863084042/video/1

Enjoy the weather cause you ain't gonna notice much change for a while.  Nice but getting boring.

Per post above from @bluewave don't like the look of this.  Keep an eye on it over the coming weeks.  I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern locked in for a while.  Trof west / ridge east.  

 

[psv88]

Think I figured out my issue, which was true last year early on. My pool is still around 60 and my weather station is around 25 feet from the pool. After initial drop my temp levels off from midnight to sunrise on clear calm nights. By late fall last year my temps were more normal again, but until the pool temp drops my overnight low will be higher