October 2026

[Michael05192016]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Next 5 days of back and forth looks to average near normal before the pattern warms going into November. 

 

 

Maybe an "E.T. the Extraterrestrial" movie kind of Halloween this year!!! Costume without coats!!!

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Next 5 days of back and forth looks to average near normal before the pattern warms going into November. 

 

 

I love it. San Diego weather here for mid autumn. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I love it. San Diego weather here for mid autumn. 

Pretty impressive reversal from the norm with the historic east based El Niño focusing the heaviest rains relative to the means around San Diego this month. So San Diego is getting the least San Diego-like weather during October from what is normal for them outside El Niños. The CONUS has been getting an unusually warm October pattern for such a strong El Niño. 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

For what it's worth, it appears that the AIFS has been running warmer than the traditional ECMWF when it comes to daytime temperatures. Whether this is temporary with the new 0.1° ECMWF grid or something persistent remains to be seen.

Here's an example from New York City from the 10/22 0z cycle (similar differences were also present in the 6z cycle):

For comparison, the NBM high-low values for October 22 (today) were 65°-47°.

[Stormlover74]

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pivotal weather is down just in case you wanted to track..well absolutely nothing

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming.


.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming.


.

I'm loving it.   My sons finishing up high school soccer-nice to not sit in the rain or mist

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, Michael05192016 said:

Now we get Halloweens more like the ones in the 1982 movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial" and impatiens and roses in December for NYC. 

We are still 9 days out, but halloween is looking fairly normal temp wise

[cleetussnow]

The weather flatlined.  
 

 

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The weather flatlined.  
 

 

been an active summer and early fall-we were due.

[winterwarlock]

70/33 split for me

 

Thinking 20s either Saturday or Sunday morning

[donsutherland1]

The remainder of this week and weekend will see highs mainly in the lower 60s. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. Temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 50s and lower 50s through the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -33.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.869 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

67 today. Nice day for a round of golf 

[TWCCraig]

Forgot about these cool SST maps from Rutgers. No cloud correction so the clouds from Josephine impact the regional view. Some very warm water just offshore

https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/data/satellites/imagery/?region=nybight&product=sst&sm=10&sd=15&sy=2026&em=10&ed=22&ey=2026

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs
 

New Brnswck: 71
PHL: 70
EWR: 69
TEB: 69
TTN: 69
BLM: 68
ACY: 68
LGA: 68
NYC: 67
JFK: 67
ISP: 66

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Forgot about these cool SST maps from Rutgers. No cloud correction so the clouds from Josephine impact the regional view. Some very warm water just offshore


https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/data/satellites/imagery/?region=nybight&product=sst&sm=10&sd=15&sy=2026&em=10&ed=22&ey=2026

Allot of that will move back towards the coast once the flow backs around to the south/south east. Water was pretty chilly today.


.

[SACRUS]

10/21:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves.
(Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)  It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)


1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

10/22

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1979)
NYC: 88 (1979)
LGA: 83 (1979)
JFK: 77 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: 30 (1940)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA: 33 (1940)
JFK: 37 (2003)

 

Historical:  

 

 

1884: A drought which began in August, extended through September and continued until the last week October brought hardship to Northern, Central, and Eastern Alabama. The 22nd was the first day of general showers, and gentle rains fell from the 26th to the 29th.

1965 - The temperature soared to 104 degrees at San Diego, CA. Southern California was in the midst of a late October heat wave that year. Los Angeles had ten consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching 100 degrees. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1969: The earliest and heaviest snow since October 1926 occurred in parts of northern New England. 12 inches fell at Rochester, NY, and in some mountain areas, more than a foot fell. There was limited skiing on some Vermont slopes on the 23rd. It set the October 24-hour record at Burlington, VT, with 5.1 inches, and the early season record at Portland, ME, with 3.6 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1985 - A guest on the top floor of a hotel in Seattle, WA, was seriously injured while talking on the phone when lightning struck. Several persons are killed each year when the electrical charge from a lightning bolt travels via telephone wiring. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Yakutat, AK, surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S., most of them in the southeast states, reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 30 degrees at Athens GA, 28 degrees at Birmingham AL, and 23 degrees at Pinson AL, were the coldest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) Showers produced heavy rain in southern California, with amounts ranging up to five inches at Blue Jay. Flash flooding resulted in two deaths, ten injuries, and more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A "nor'easter" swept across the coast of New England. Winds gusted to 75 mph, and large waves and high tides caused extensive shoreline flooding. A heavy wet snow blanketed much of eastern New York State, with a foot of snow reported in Lewis County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain to the Northern and Central Pacific Coast Region, with snow in some of the mountains of Oregon, and wind gusts to 60 mph along the Oregon coast. Six cities in Florida reported record low temp-eratures for the date, including Tallahassee with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: Flooding from a major weekend storm continued to close schools and businesses in New England. Five people were killed during the storm, which dumped up to 19.19 inches of rain at Camp Ellis, ME to set the state's all time rainfall record. 140,000 people in Portland, ME were without water due to a water-main break. The town of Exeter, NH was also without water as the state experienced its worst flooding event since 1987. In New Jersey, the flooding was reported to be the worst since Tropical Storm Doria in 1971. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Wichita Kansas picked up 0.2 inch of snow for its earliest measurable snowfall on record. Snow also fell in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As much as 8 inches fell at Boise City, Oklahoma, with 15 inches at the Cloudcroft Ski resort in the mountains of northern New Mexico. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

 

1997: Game 4 of the World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Florida Marlins was the coldest game in World Series history. The official game-time temperature was 38 degrees at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. Wind chills as low as 18 degrees was reported during the game.

 

1998: Tropical Depression Thirteen formed on October 22 over the southwestern the Caribbean Sea. By the 24th, this tropical depression became Hurricane Mitch. This hurricane would rapidly intensify over the next two days, reaching Category 5 strength on the 26th. Hurricane Mitch would end up being the second deadliest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Ocean.


2005: Hurricane Wilma, with sustained winds near 130 mph crossed the Yucatan Peninsula near Playa del Carmen. The hurricane caused severe damage to the homes of nearly 700,000 people, leaving 300,000 homeless and at least 7 dead. Some remote locations across the Yucatan reported over 60 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)


2006: A “sleeper” wave hit CA’s Freshwater Lagoon Beach (near Orick). A 4-yr-old girl was swept to sea, as was a woman who tried to save her; both drowned. Several times a year “rogue” waves unexpectedly sweep people from beaches as they break on C/N CA beaches. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2007: A tropical air mass along the Atlantic Seaboard pushes the afternoon high temperatures 10 to 25 Fahrenheit degrees above the long-term average highs for the third week of October. Daily record high temperatures are tied or exceeded with 80°F readings at Montpelier, Vermont, and Millinocket, Maine. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We can roll with it. Growing season is mostly done. Plenty of rainy 50 degree days coming.


.

Don't be so sure of that. The winter of 1965-66 being a case in point. I'm excited about how hot I know next summer will be though. A mix of 1966 and 1983 is on the way.

 

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro literally has no precip for its entire run-rare to see that here

It's great to see sunny shades of October 2024.

 

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm loving it.   My sons finishing up high school soccer-nice to not sit in the rain or mist

Yes this is usually the time of year when we have our best weather.

 

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

The weather flatlined.  
 

 

This is the best weather of the entire year.  Great timing with the fall foliage at peak too.

 

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

been an active summer and early fall-we were due.

Yes I wouldn't mind 4 weeks of this. 

 

3 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

70/33 split for me

 

Thinking 20s either Saturday or Sunday morning

Yuck another hard freeze. My October electric bill is projected to be over 600. Dont ask, the cost of heating a large house combined with inflated energy costs. I have 17 heating zones here and when I had the heat set to 65 it was too cold. 70 was okay for awhile but when we had those 2 nights in a row below freezing even 70 wasn't enough. Now I have a large portion of the house at 73 with a few minor exceptions:

5 thermostats set at 50. 4 bathrooms plus the kitchen.  These are the rooms that require the least heat. 

3 thermostats set at 68. These are a few of the rooms downstairs.

2 thermostats set at 70. These are two of the bedrooms upstairs.

7 thermostats set at 73. My bedroom upstairs,  the hallway and some of the rooms downstairs that have very tall ceilings. I previously had those downstairs rooms set at 70 but it wasn't warm enough when we went below freezing.  I have 4 propane fireplaces so I might revisit these settings if I turn them on

 

The 17 thermostats average out to exactly 65 but that obviously doesn't account for room size.

 

[BxEngine]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

67 today. Nice day for a round of golf 

If i could have managed to string 3 good shots in a row somehow, it woulda been a great day for golf. 

[bluewave]

New Brunswick is the warm spot this month so far. They are at +3.2° through the 22nd. This is their 6th warmest October to date. Areas away from the onshore flow influence this month are warmest. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2007-10-22	65.1	0
2	2021-10-22	63.3	0
3	2017-10-22	62.4	0
-	1990-10-22	62.4	0
4	2013-10-22	61.7	0
5	2005-10-22	60.6	0
6	2026-10-22	60.4	1
7	2018-10-22	60.3	0
-	2011-10-22	60.3	0
8	1995-10-22	60.1	1
9	2016-10-22	59.7	0
-	1968-10-22	59.7	0
10	2025-10-22	59.4	0

MPO….+2.8

FWN….+2.5

SMQ…..+1.2

NBW….+3.2

EWR….+2.3

LGA……+1.7

NYC……+1.2

JFK……+2.4

HPN……+1.7

BDR……+0.8

ISP……..+2.0

[WestBabylonWeather]

 

 

 

[MarcmmKU]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive reversal from the norm with the historic east based El Niño focusing the heaviest rains relative to the means around San Diego this month. So San Diego is getting the least San Diego-like weather during October from what is normal for them outside El Niños. The CONUS has been getting an unusually warm October pattern for such a strong El Niño. 

 

 

 

CONUS literally cannot stop torching. Every month since march 2026 was a total conus torch. We can't get a break. 

[SACRUS]

50 / 39 clear.  Great stretch continues and marches into November.  Overall near to slightly above normal for the 7 day period 10/30 - 10/30 then near normal beyond there and amazingly dry.  Monday 10/26 and thu 10/29 looks like the warmest day of the next 7 - 10 and today the coolest, next shot at meaningful rain even though not being shown on the forecats, may come with the frontal passage next weekend.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  87 (1947) 
NYC: 85 (1947)
LGA: 86 (1947)
JFK: 77 (1978)

 

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1997)
NYC: 32 (1969)
LGA: 32 (1969)
JFK: 33 (1969)


Historical:

 

1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum)

1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)

 

1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78". The five minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. 

 

1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as "Mr. Tornado" after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.

 

1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. 

1969: Boston, Massachusetts had a high temperature of 38 °F the coldest high temperature for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)
 

1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: Freeze 30°F killed tomatoes in Annandale, VA the earliest since 1992. (Ref. Annandale Weather Records)

2003: Arizona: Phoenix sets a record high and also breaks the record for the latest date for a triple-digit temperature as the temperature soars to 100 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2005: Hurricane Wilma produced high winds pushing a high storm surge that breached a wide stretch of Havana, Cuba's seawall flooding area neighborhoods, spreading up to four blocks inland. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

2007:  Northern Louisiana: Cold air descends over northern Louisiana setting daily low maximum temperature records. El Dorado only reaches a high of only 52°F and Monroe, 54°F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

 

2015: On this day, Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph) and its central pressure fell to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury). Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory. Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997. While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.