October 2026

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Last winter was insanely horrible in the west with snow. This winter is going to be different. 

Yup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see near record snows in the sierras with the ultimate Nino. One thing this winter is going to have plenty of is moisture. So with the right elevation to overcome the pacific warmth you can pull major snow numbers. Obviously here it’s about timing the moisture with any available cold. Do we pull off a 83 or 16 or do we get skunked like 73 and 98.


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[weathermedic]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storm just kinda hangs out for several days

 

OKX point and click showing sunny for Monday and Tuesday

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

OKX point and click showing sunny for Monday and Tuesday

may be more of a DELMARVA/NC event this go around

[SACRUS]

67 / 65 clouds holding , front pushing to CPA.  Storms later - chill this weekend and onshore cut off ULL barrage 10/19 - 10/26, but overall warmer than normal.  Ridge goes north and flow comes around cut off low off the Southeast coast pushes a week of easterly flow into the area.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1958)
NYC: 87 (1897)
LGA: 82 (1958)
JFK: 79 (2008)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1944)
NYC: 34 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
LGA: 39 (2006)

Historical:

1781: A storm of "unknown character" struck Virginia. The Earl of Cornwallis, at Yorktown, was trapped by the French Fleet and the Patriot Army, under the command of George Washington. The Earl decided to flee to the north to Gloucester Point under the cover of darkness. A "furious storm" doomed the plan to failure, as seas ran high and every boat was "swamped". He sent forward his flag of truce and surrendered, thus ending the battle (Chapman). (Ref. Storm of 1781)

1880: Very early blizzard in Dakotas ends and precedes severe winter. Earliest blizzard in Minnesota. Struck western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas especially hard. Over a foot of snow in western counties. Railroads were blocked. Damage done to Great Lakes shipping. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft formed in the Canby area lasted until the next spring when flooding occurred across the Minnesota River Valley. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1913 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1937 - An unlikely winter-like storm produced as much as ten inches of snow in Minnesota and Iowa.

1944: The 1944 Cuba – Florida hurricane, also known as the Pinar del Rio Hurricane, struck western Cuba on this day as a Category 4. This storm killed an estimated 300 people in Cuba and nine in Florida. This hurricane is currently the 7th costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricane, with an estimated $46.9 billion (2015 USD) in damages.


1962: Severe weather across northwestern Oklahoma resulted in a 5-inch hailstone collected in Woodward County. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Augusta GA marked their third straight morning of record cold. A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the central U.S. Lightning struck a bull and six cows under a tree near Battiest OK. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado north of Nappanee IN which caused half a million dollars damage. Six cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 100 degrees at Red Bluff CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988: An F2 tornado carved a 6 mile long, east-northeast path through a mostly rural area of north-central Indiana. The extremely slow-moving tornado touched down 1.5 miles north of Nappanee, just 300 yards north of a high school, and shortly after that moved through a subdivision where 11 homes sustained damage.

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of Colorado. Up to three inches was reported around Denver. Echo Lake was buried under nineteen inches of snow. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the eastern and south central U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 84 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1998: One of the costliest hail storms to ever hit metro Denver caused an estimated $87.8 million dollars in damage to homes, buildings and vehicles. The hailstorm, rare for so late in the season began over portions of Arvada, Wheat Ridge and northeast Denver where mostly pea sized hail accumulated up to a depth of 6 inches near I-70. Snowplows had to be called out to clear several streets and many accidents were reported. The storm intensified as it moved to the east into the Denver and Aurora areas. Hail up to two inches in diameter pelted the Denver metro area and one inch diameter hail in northern Aurora. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1990: Temperature reached 90 °F for 136th day in Tampa, FL. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1992: 60+ middle school football players were on the Dueitt Middle School football field (Spring, TX) when lightning hit during a light drizzle. 34 students/coach taken to a hospital for observation/treatment, fortunately; no one was killed. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1999: Hurricane Irene moved across the Florida Keys producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves. A gust 102 mph was reported in Big Pine Key.

 

2007: A blinding sandstorm in the high desert north of Los Angeles wreaks havoc with local traffic causing a highway pileup involving dozens of vehicles. Two people die, and 16 are injured as a result of the storm, which reportedly raised dust to 1000 foot high.

 

2015: A well-defined waterspout was visible from Marquette, Michigan.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

67 / 65 clouds holding , front pushing to CPA.  Storms later - chill this weekend and onshore cut off ULL barrage 10/19 - 10/26, but overall warmer than normal.  Ridge goes north and flow comes around cut off low off the Southeast coast pushes a week of easterly flow into the area.

 

My point and click after today has below normal high temps through Thursday, minus Tuesday which is 1 degree above normal.

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

My point and click after today has below normal high temps through Thursday, minus Tuesday which is 1 degree above normal.

Must be factorin g in the weekend chill. Think the period 10/19 - 10/26 hover s above normal overall, likely for higher mins with the onshore onslaught.

[SACRUS]

Some peaks of sun, slow to burn off , late PM highs  still stuck at 68 with a forecasted highs of 76

[ForestHillWx]

62/62 here with rather dense fog… sub 30s for lows tonight and tomorrow it seems. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

Front in CPA

 

[NCPOW]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Front in CPA

 

What time do we see this arriving to the metro area?

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, NCPOW said:

What time do we see this arriving to the metro area?

probably after 5 more so now based on radar

[SACRUS]

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see near record snows in the sierras with the ultimate Nino. One thing this winter is going to have plenty of is moisture. So with the right elevation to overcome the pacific warmth you can pull major snow numbers. Obviously here it’s about timing the moisture with any available cold. Do we pull off a 83 or 16 or do we get skunked like 73 and 98.


.

Depends how high the snow levels get. If we have subtropical/warm origins events all the time, Lake Tahoe for example might be wet a lot of the time and you have to go to the high slopes to see much. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Depends how high the snow levels get. If we have subtropical/warm origins events all the time, Lake Tahoe for example might be wet a lot of the time and you have to go to the high slopes to see much. 

Yeah for sure. Tahoe is rather low at 6,000’ in comparison to what’s possible in the sierra. Mammoth lakes for example is 8,000’ and of course you have peaks over 14,000’. Once you get above 10k it doesn’t really matter how warm the flow is, it’s going to snow. Allot of the Colorado resorts for example go up and over 12,000’.


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[MarcmmKU]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah for sure. Tahoe is rather low at 6,000’ in comparison to what’s possible in the sierra. Mammoth lakes for example is 8,000’ and of course you have peaks over 14,000’. Once you get above 10k it doesn’t really matter how warm the flow is, it’s going to snow. Allot of the Colorado resorts for example go up and over 12,000’.


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That's what I thought until last winter. It rained to 10,000 ft repeatedly in Utah and Colorado. Just absurd how fast the planet is warming. Very scary.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That's what I thought until last winter. It rained to 10,000 ft repeatedly in Utah and Colorado. Just absurd how fast the planet is warming. Very scary.

That was unprecedented. It’s been snowing like crazy (feet) in Utah already and it’s mid October. The seasons already off to a better start.


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[SACRUS]

Up to 75 and sunny forecast high of 76 looks achievable or exceeding it.

[Big Jims Videos]

We're close to 80 and muggy at my Wall Township office now. Had full sunshine for about 2 hours now here. Don't know if that will help the storms as they typically weaken crossing NJ but it's juiced at least here. 

[NEG NAO]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for entire Metro

WOUS from KWNS

 

The line of storms is quite skinny in Central PA most of this will be high winds IMO - anchor down your Halloween decorations or your neighbors will be displaying them

[SACRUS]

78 / 67 here 

[NEG NAO]

as of 4:15 the line of storms is only about 25 miles or less wide extending from Scranton down through Harrisburg moving east fast at 40mph +

[Stormlover74]

It'll be in and out in 15 minutes. Surprised the watch is all the way til 10pm but I guess they have to

[NEG NAO]

Temperatures are not that chilly once the storms pass once the storms pass keep your windows closed so your heat won't go on tonight

[donsutherland1]

A piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region following the passage of the cold front now approaching the region. The frontal passage could be marked by showers and thunderstorms. The potential exists for some areas to experience a strong or severe thunderstorm.

Following the frontal passage, the weekend will see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower 50s on Sunday. 

Sunday morning could see the mercury slip into the 30s for the first time this season in New York City. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November was then much warmer than normal. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -25.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.202 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It'll be in and out in 15 minutes. Surprised the watch is all the way til 10pm but I guess they have to

yep and it will weaken east of the city-doubt there's anything severe for LI or CT

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

Some interesting weather about to unfold here.  This is the current sky condition.  No cirrus blow off on the top of this line.  It’s only 20 miles away!

[Tatamy]

9 minutes later

[Stormlover74]

Line looks decent currently. A few warnings