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October 2026


MJO812
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The temperature soared into the lower 80s across the New York City area. Central Park reached 83° and Newark reached 87°. In New England, Manchester, NH reached 85°, which broke the daily record of 84° from 2002.

Progressively cooler weather now lies ahead. It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with highs reaching mainly the lower 70s. Sunday will be even cooler with temperatures topping out in the middle and upper 60s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. 

In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -19.02 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. 

 

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yep got the email from NOMADS:

NOMADS users. 
I have a number of updates for you on our new dataflows. 

RRFS/REFS has moved to Nov 3.  With that all associated terminations and upgrades tied to that model have also shifted. We understand this delay may be frustrating to some, but hope you understand our commitment to ensure the model is running at its best before implementation. The parallel feeds will continue through the Nov 3 launch date. 

RRFS/REFS Nov 3 SCN 26-48
NAM, HiresW, HREF, SREF termination Nov 3 SCN 26-47
SPC Post v 3.0 Nov 3 SCN 26-77

Hysplit v 9.1 Nov 3 SCN 26-78
Blend, ObsProc, MAG website changes Nov 3 SCN 26-89

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51 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I felt like today was summer saying goodbye 

It’s a step down the staircase to winter. Maybe there’s 3 more stairs to go down if we have a warm wet torch, 5 or 6 if we have cold/snowy periods but step down today for sure. 

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3 hours ago, steve392 said:

Finally startling to rain pretty good. 

I'm glad it will be sunny and dry all of next week, rain is not needed anymore.

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

No more heat until May please.

No more rain until 2028 and I'm not going to be nice enough to say "please" this is a demand NOT a request.  I want either snow or sunny nothing else. I almost got stuck in a wet mound of clay where water had ponded. That was this morning when it was still sunny. 70 percent of this planet is covered in water there is no such thing as a "drought" anyone who wants water can just find the 70% of this planet covered in water and go jump in it!

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I bet we'll see 80 again, but this was very likely our last day with temps well up into the 80s until next spring. It hit 87 here today. 

Nope. I doubt we get higher than 72.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm glad it will be sunny and dry all of next week, rain is not needed anymore.

No more rain until 2028 and I'm not going to be nice enough to say "please" this is a demand NOT a request.  I want either snow or sunny nothing else. I almost got stuck in a wet mound of clay where water had ponded. That was this morning when it was still sunny. 70 percent of this planet is covered in water there is no such thing as a "drought" anyone who wants water can just find the 70% of this planet covered in water and go jump in it!

Here in New Jersey our drought warning is over.  There is a lingering drought watch in the southernmost area that includes Cape May, but the rest of the state is officially back  to normal:  https://dep.nj.gov/drought/current-conditions/#regional-drinking-water-supply-indicator-and-declared-water-supply-status

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm glad it will be sunny and dry all of next week, rain is not needed anymore.

No more rain until 2028 and I'm not going to be nice enough to say "please" this is a demand NOT a request.  I want either snow or sunny nothing else. I almost got stuck in a wet mound of clay where water had ponded. That was this morning when it was still sunny. 70 percent of this planet is covered in water there is no such thing as a "drought" anyone who wants water can just find the 70% of this planet covered in water and go jump in it!

Liberty if there’s an open casting call for 76 trombones you’d be a lock for the Professor Harold Hill role. As always ……
 

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