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October 2026 general discussion


Typhoon Tip
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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is just a product of the upper air pattern and what will ultimately steer it and probably due to the fact that the system is still quite unorganized  

Ya but with big implications and can change patterns depending on strength and which way it goes.. 

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I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable 

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What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened 

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