Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I’ll be in Atlantic City Thursday thru Sunday at the very lease should have some big wave action.

bring your surf board

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian is dry west of Long Island- except some wrap around showers on the back end  - HP at first is weaker and further west near Lake Superior allowing the storm to get a few miles west of the GFS

[wthrmn654]

So many moving parts,  jeez 

[Brian5671]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

So many moving parts,  jeez 

Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Thats part of the problem-the models having difficulty honing in on which part develops and when, thus all the different solutions

Exactly, sad to say but I kinda wish models were less i guess advanced like they were several years ago versus what they are now.... seems to me to many changes these days right up to game time. 

 

[Snowlover11]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

bring your surf board

I’ll be inside the casino

[wthrmn654]

Comparing the 00z to 12zgefs, looking at total precip is nearly identical all the way to NYC from the image I can see not fully zoomed in..

[wthrmn654]

Eastern areas kinda look like more precip though but hard to tell. 

[wthrmn654]

Jma is west of 00z lmao yeah I'm going put the phone down and do some yard work with all this variability, no point in wasting brain cells yet when models are all over the place still

[mgerb]

Back and forth we go.

 

[JYE]

12z Euro looks to be incoming

[TriPol]

12z EURO is the same track its been for a while. Slams it into Long Island and retrogrades west. The low weakens while it does this. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

almost no rain though lol

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Brian, how bad would the coastal flooding be in NYC if this track were to verify closely? Would it be very high impact for the city?

Hard to say for the city proper.  But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

[TriPol]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Hard to say for the city proper.  But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Also, the ground is pretty saturated from the prior rain storms we've had this summer/autumn. With high winds, I'd be concerned about a lot of trees falling.

Definitely but probably need winds over 40mph for that to be an issue.   

[MJO812]

Euro way west of 0z

[psv88]

The rain won’t be an issue, it’s the wind and coastal flooding. Looks to be an issue on all models 

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to say for the city proper.  But we're having east/northeast winds right now which is piling up water so I would think moderate at least for LI/CT/NJ coasts

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this.  Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher?  That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play.  Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy.  Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat.  Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding.  Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow.  Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county.  Good gradient with high to the north.

[wdrag]

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ.  You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution).  Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle. 

 

 

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this.  Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher?  That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play.  Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy.  Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat.  Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding.  Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow.  Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county.

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage. 

Walt,

 My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

[Franklin0529]

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ.  You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution).  Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle. 

 

 

Walt nice to see you back!! Thanks as always for your expertise.....Hope to see you alot this winter!!

[WeatherGeek2025]

hi just came here to say get ready Icon got this

[LCPhotowerx]

the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution...

[TriPol]

 

Just now, LCPhotowerx said:

the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution...

The last time the Weather Channel was accurate was 1993 on the Storm of the Century.

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, LCPhotowerx said:

the Weather Channel seems to be going with the easterly solution...

I'm pretty sure there going the middle ground based on what I've heard/ watched

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

 

The last time the Weather Channel was accurate was 1993 on the Storm of the Century.

They did good with sandy imo

[TriPol]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

They did good with sandy imo

Ok, a broken clock is right twice a day. The EURO is king. The EURO AI has performed better than most other models for over a year now. 

[wdrag]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Walt,

 My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

Speaking with much less info-guidance than the NWS and many private sector mets/yourselves... I think it would be good to have a plan B for flight delays.. fortunately this is not a KU snowstorm.  imo, good idea to have cash in hand if power outages this weekend. Global Modeling keeps the wind gusts below 60 MPH except mainly be LI/se New England... so presuming it's indoors... go but with having a plan B. Hoping its not to see the Yankees end of season. 

 

You all will have the modeling and NWS commitments tomorrow morning.

 

I am curious if the NWS is relying on the NBM for forecast WWA?