October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Masswx]

Gust just shook the house 

[NECT]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huge difference in rain between here and Uconn or even Wilington. Over 2” those spots and .68 here 

2"+ in Brooklyn.  Less in Woodstock, maybe 1" or so depending on location.  Not much electricity either.

[dendrite]

This 2nd pulse tonight was definitely more LI/CT focused on the euro as the low backs westward. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Winds have been unimpressive here. Best I could manage in 2 days is a 24 mph gust. Wasn't expecting much but more than that.

Saw some power flashes in Wilmington and Bedford, a few roads closed. Nothing major 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2.26. Looks like we dry for a while. See if we can’t add some more, but looks more showery moving forward. 

[dendrite]

NE downslope in effect.

RH has dropped from about 95% to 49% in a couple hours.

[OrangeCTWX]

It’s been rather calm here the last two hours. Guessing that changes as the storm backs westward and past the area.

[RCola]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2.26. Looks like we dry for a while. See if we can’t add some more, but looks more showery moving forward. 

So this exceeded your 2” expectations with more to go it sounds like. 

[Torch Tiger]

Just had a transformer explode very closeby. Gust was like 35 lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Complete yawner in Franklin Co. so far.  
Disappointingly under performing in the wind category and my bar is pretty low here. Under .10” rain.  
Maybe we roar for a bit in a few hours, but I’m not so sure.

[rimetree]

Up to .30" now and coming down pretty good. Occasional roaring winds but very brief. 58/56

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Congrats to everybody on the coast though,  I bet it’s pretty fun observations on the beaches.  
I think Montauk Point  or Block Island would’ve been the place to chase this one.  

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I haven’t had any precip, sky cover wasn’t even thick at sunset, ha.

Thank god it’s not winter; this would’ve been tough.  Instead, decent weekend outside so far.

I have an 8:20 tee time so I hope it holds. 

[TalcottWx]

59 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Just had a transformer explode very closeby. Gust was like 35 lol

Heavy damage after heavy trolling. 

[powderfreak]

Partly cloudy up north.

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Partly cloudy up north.

looks peaceful 

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we cancel winds.

BOS G50KT.  How is that cancel?  BED G40KT,  G61 KT Welfleet and on Block Island.  Exactly as fcst and what the HRRR showed.

Next thing you'll do is "we cancel the rain"  Pfft!  You do realize this is duration event and the rain does not end in ern sections until close to sunrise Tue.

[CCHurricane]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

BOS G50KT.  How is that cancel?  BED G40KT,  G61 KT Welfleet and on Block Island.  Exactly as fcst and what the HRRR showed.

Next thing you'll do is "we cancel the rain"  Pfft!  You do realize this is duration event and the rain does not end in ern sections until close to sunrise Tue.

I’m seeing BOS gusting to 51mph. Don’t doubt your comment, can you share where you pulled that from?

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, Snugharbor said:

Sorry for you guys who haven't gotten "in" on this, but I do have to say it blew hard last night from about Midnight-2am here on the RI coast. Outtages went from 50 to about 8K in an hour, and we lost power from 130-4am. (Still lots of local outtages but somehow we have it on...albeit generator is ready)

Still gusty but it's diminished quite a bit comparatively over the last 2-4 hours, and is far less "violent" than it was a little while ago. The sun has been peaking out with varying degrees of brightness through the clouds.

Block Island had a 70+ mph gust. But judging from the buoy forecast the PM wind is now forecast to be the same/slightly LESS than this AM....did they screw up when the worst of the wind actually was coming? It almost felt like a squall line last night for several hours, and had a really strong intensity that's really become "dailed back" since.

 

This was always going to be "takes its time" type storm, but in the end everything will verify.  Not every storm comes in hot and heavy like the Bliz of 93.

@CoastalWx take note...

[H2Otown_WX]

About to dryslot at BDL, thought I was going to having an exciting shift. Only gusting to 23 kts attm. 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, klw said:

I know folks love making storm comparisons.  For me this has been reminding my gut of Dec 1992 in terms of nonimpact here but certainly not elsewhere. I am laid up this week so I haven't looked closely, is this a fair comparison meteorologically?  Any similarities other than impact areas?

 

 

I was just thinking of Dec 11-12, 1992...the one @CoastalWx likes to forget b/c he got royally screwed in Brockton when so many others basked in white glory, getting their biggest snowfall in nearly 10 years!

That even started w/ sig wind well before the pcpn started (reminded me of he Bliz of 78).  You know you are in for it when that happens!  Then a full day of R+ in ern MA, that turned to S+ predawn the next day and I got 18" in Woburn.  To get that much rain first and that much snow in a single event is practically unheard of.  Woonsocket RI had 7" total pcpn (20" of that snow).  That is huge amount of pcpn in the NEUS for a nor'easter in a winter month.

And it was not that extreme as far as low/high combo.  985 low stalled E of the Delmarva and a 1035 high in Quebec.  Yet coastal flooding was epic.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

I’m seeing BOS gusting to 51mph. Don’t doubt your comment, can you share where you pulled that from?

I posted an ob of 50kt there a page or two ago 

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, dendrite said:

That weenie Wellfleet anny had 70 earlier and it’s at 100ft. The New Shoreham is 144ft on the shore. So if it’s accurate it isn’t exactly representative of the 10m wind.

The wind data at least looks consistent.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F8194&hours=72

When you say the weenie in Welfleet is 100 ft.  Is that is ground elevation or the anemometer height?
I say this b/c as long as the anemometer height is 10 m, it doesn't matter what the ground elevation is.  Yes, of course ground elevation relative to surrounding elevation needs to be considered, but ppl and infrastructure are still there! 

If one happens to live on a ridge/bluff, that doesn't discount it.  The former CHH radar/RAOB site sits on a bluff, and I recall comparing obs here to the CQX airport, Night and day!  CQX is not that windy of location.  HYA/FMH/PVC do much better.

Here is the BID airport.  Despite it's elevation, it is far enough inland and surrounding by trees that you are going to have sig differences to the shoreline.  I've seen this numerous times going E on 286 to Seabrook MA.  Once you get out of the trees and into the salt marshes, holy cow!
 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Down to 986mb as of 12z analysis. Looks like it shed the cold front, but still has the warm frontal boundary so obviously not subtropical. 

T-bone frontal fracture.  That's a Sharpio-Keyser cyclone, the ones that have the crazy winds on the backside.  Dec 9, 2005 is perhaps the best one in SNE.

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was basically a category one. The fire chief at the time in Marshfield sent me a picture of the anemometer that said 90.

What about the swath of tree damage in GHG from the Bliz of 13?  Legendary you talk about that!

[CT Valley Snowman]

The overnight ramp up has not delivered here.  It's been mainly light rain and gusts to 30.  Storm total thus far about .40.  

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CT Rain said:

I'm curious what people would like us to do.

For example, look at the call to action on the NWS coastal flood warnings and high wind warnings. Probably more "panicky" than anything a met said on air. 

Our forecast will turn out to be pretty much perfect in terms of wind gusts, impacts (scattered outages), and coastal flooding (minor to barely moderate). 

I have noticed more hype wording over times.  You will see "powerful" and "dangerous" used a lot.  This kind of wording was used much more sparingly through the 90s, and was reserved for the truly high-end events.

I got news you, all Nor'easters (and hurricanes for that matter) are powerful and dangerous.  Redundant wording.  This hurts business and commerce overall to the point we are being held hostage by the wx.  That is not good.  More is not always better.  Using "better safe than sorry" is a cop out, get-out-of-jail-free, weasel excuse.  But you have pander to the lowest common denominator these days.  But at the same it insults those would know the deal and are responsible when it comes to wx and promotes distrust in authority b/c they clang the alarm bell relentlessly.

And now supermarkets are crowded for a Nor'easter that has zero snow?  WTF?  You see the problem here.  Unnecessary panic and fear is instilled every time of inclement wx now.

And don't get me started on the use  of "catastrophic"   That is abused big time.  The problem is that it is used by default.  Impact/damage is never severe, disastrous, moderate, minor, or anything else other than "catastrophic" these days.  Ever notice that?  There is no scaling or quantification of it all anymore.

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't see this storm or have not seen this storm hyped by any local meteorologists out there. The key points of storm impacts were illustrated and highlighted well. How people decide to respond and actions taken is on them. 

In fact, I think you could even argue what measure people are taken is not in fact a bad thing but a mere positive. It illustrates increased awareness from the public, a greater trust from the public in forecasts, and people's ability to manage around inclement weather. I don't really see anything wrong with stores being "flooded" with people before a storm. I mean, in this day in age, who has the means to keep a fully stocked fridge and freezer? People are probably getting food and supplies "as needed". 

Awareness is a two way street.  You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall.  Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things.  You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary  That is not good.  Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.
 

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Awareness is a two way street.  You don't need to be relentlessly reminded on how "dangerous" it out out there, esp. when it is not that "dangerous" overall.  Constant negative like that wears on society, promotes anxiety, and impacts zeitgeist, among other things.  You start viewing the world as worse that is actually is, and many ppl think the wx is worse and unlike anything society has ever experienced before b/c of wx hype and the ordinary is constantly turned into the extraordinary  That is not good.  Decisions and policy are made from such false perceptions, never mind needless cancellations, as a couple of examples.
 

People died from falling trees in NYC today.