October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey, wind is elusive,  lots of times it’s not here either.  Holy smokes wind still very gusty here. 

Are you anywhere near Meriden? Ripping pretty good there.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Are you anywhere near Meriden? Ripping pretty good there.

 

About 10 miles NW of that location.  

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Only 2mph less there than on your deck

What do you think the winds are gusting at this point ? Let’s see how good you are 

[OrangeCTWX]

NAM trend 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Steady light rain. gusts 10-15 mph.  There were some 30ish gusts in the late afternoon.  

[WxWatcher007]

 

[FXWX]

54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey, wind is elusive,  lots of times it’s not here either.  Holy smokes wind still very gusty here. 

It's the most variable parameter of all... Only a handful of solid accurate observation locations; along with tons of extremely poorly sites instruments that in no way measure true wind speed at tree top level.  A simple wind analysis shows tremendous variability across very small distances; even on the same street!

[Hoth]

Wind definitely ramping up. Getting some whistling here and there, and the occasional house shudder.

[DirtySnowDen]

Isobars do not lie or troll and if you know your physics this thing is trying to find its sweet spot right now to double-fist ice cream cones.

[NeonPeon]

19 minutes ago, DirtySnowDen said:

Isobars do not lie or troll and if you know your physics this thing is trying to find its sweet spot right now to double-fist ice cream cones.

How's the eye wall looking?

[DirtySnowDen]

[DirtySnowDen]

What does water do when it cools?

[WxWatcher007]

FWIW, the GFS is a little further north on Sunday.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW, the GFS is a little further north on Sunday.

More rain…

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

More rain…

 

18z Euro

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

cut everything back

[ineedsnow]

Euro also coming in north at 0z 

[weathafella]

Euro popping a tremendous deluge in AEMAATT.

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro popping a tremendous deluge in AEMAATT.

 

[WxWatcher007]

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good!  So much rain in Weymouth, it will "drown out" @CoastalWx's constant boring whining nonsense!  LOL

[vortex95]

This is not your typical "cold" ET storm evolution.

The initial surface low development was S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness 

line and by 25/18z, a small 582 closed thickness pool had formed over the low

center (see ECMWF 12z 06 hr and 18z 03 hr forecast attached).  This is a

much higher thickness than what you would find in a typical strong ET storm

development near 37N in late September in this region off the U.S. East Coast.

A 582 thickness pool is what you commonly see on the global models over a 

mature hurricane, so I would be cautious here as this is an outlier case and

conventional rules of thumb may not apply.  This is why I mentioned in an 

earlier post that one needs to think outside the box here.  

Yes, I know that this mid-level warm pool alone does not make it even close 

to a ST system currently, but you have to admit this is unusually warm for 

initial strong baroclinic development and a high launching pad, relativity 

speaking.  Nothing quite like this (at least in the last 50 yr) has occurred in 

September in this particular region when a strong ET low develops during the 

near peak climo of SSTs that are 2-4 C above average and the low meanders 

for days in the same region close to the coast.

 

I attached the SSTs analysis and the approximate position of the surface low at

25/18z.  It is over SSTs more than enough to support ST transition and is going

nowhere fast the next 72 hr off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so I would not let one's 

guard down here.  The closest analog is the Perfect Storm Oct-Nov 1991 and the
hurricane that formed from it eventually, so such a scenario here is not
unprecedented.  If I recall correctly, a recon was flown into that system when
the transition had occured and they found a 981 pressure and 88 kt FL winds.

 

[vortex95]

20 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah there is a bit of an inversion but not particularly strong or very deep. I can still see the coast gusting 50-60 mph, particularly with any rain bands. But given how shallow the inversion is, we have to watch sfc temps very closely. Another 1-2F warmer and the inversion is weakened and may not do much in preventing some of those stronger winds from being tapped into. 

Sct embedded tstms likely. CAPE not bad in SNE for a Nor'easter today and Sunday.  So bring down those winds as @ineedsnow would say!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Sct embedded tstms likely. CAPE not bad in SNE for a Nor'easter today and Sunday.  So bring down those winds as @ineedsnow would say!

LFG!! 

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

99 problems but the atmospheric pressure ain’t one?

What about 99 bottles of BEER on the wall?

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No. This isn’t tropical or subtropical currently. 

But give it some "TYME!!!"  It has lots of it to meander "down there."

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Another item, MQE ended up w/ 5.76" of rain for the Perfect Storm in 1991, far more than any model showed.  Of course, no hires models then, but what the ECMWF is showing does makes sense when you have extended duration big ENE fetch moist flow.
 

[ineedsnow]

6z Nam would be fun

[CT Rain]

FRG at 53 knots. Maybe OKX will issue the high wind warning now? 

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FRG at 53 knots. Maybe OKX will issue the high wind warning now? 

I woke up and was in surprised to see you. Hoping we didn't lose power tonight, but other than that, a pretty interesting little storm. Do you think this will be a pattern we'll see as we head into Winter?