September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[TSSN+]

Welp probably should give models a few more runs to figure it out. 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Icon and GGEM getting the new Europe-Canada partnership started off right 

How about Greenland? Maybe a blocking pattern can be negotiated along with the US protection and military presence that has already existed for decades. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Is there any free site that has the Euro AI? 

[Interstate]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is there any free site that has the Euro AI? 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026092002&fh=14&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

[Jebman]

There is a possibility that a tropical system near Baja California might develop into a Cat 3 Hurricane.

I want a high end Cat 5, then all the moisture hits Texas. I crave for unprecedented moisture feeds from off the deep tropical Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, plus my precious Caribbean Connection!

I want catastrophic amounts of rain! I have an Ark. I'll be taking real time water level readings.

I'd like to see at least 45 feet of water over the 1626/967 Intersection!

BRING IT ON, SUPER NINO!

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

How about Greenland? Maybe a blocking pattern can be negotiated along with the US protection and military presence that has already existed for decades. 

Be careful what you wish for. We might get the Greenland Block plus the Nino moisture.

Then look out DMV.

That'd be a definitive, textbook George BM winter storm setup with people diggin' out for weeks.

 

[dailylurker]

Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct. 

[stormy]

The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

Be careful what you wish for. We might get the Greenland Block plus the Nino moisture.

Then look out DMV.

That'd be a definitive, textbook George BM winter storm setup with people diggin' out for weeks.

 

We deserve to be buried this winter in snow. Make it a 70" winter.

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like only enough rain to be annoying this week. The Euro clears us out by late week and gives us a beautiful fall weekend with temps in the low 70's. Hopefully it's correct. 

Soil is powder here. Just put some grass/clover seed down this morning and loosening the soil was a dust bowl. Put straw down and hit it with the hose and now its raining. Getting the tail end of that weakening line. Enough to at least keep the seed damp for a day lol.

[BlizzardNole]

I am enjoying one last sunny day before four straight dark, wet, cool days coming up.  The best rain amounts with this pattern should be the normal rain shadow areas east of the mountains - that means you Stephens City!

[paulythegun]

On 9/20/2026 at 12:48 AM, Jebman said:

There is a possibility that a tropical system near Baja California might develop into a Cat 3 Hurricane.

I want a high end Cat 5, then all the moisture hits Texas. I crave for unprecedented moisture feeds from off the deep tropical Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, plus my precious Caribbean Connection!

I want catastrophic amounts of rain! I have an Ark. I'll be taking real time water level readings.

I'd like to see at least 45 feet of water over the 1626/967 Intersection!

BRING IT ON, SUPER NINO!

I'm so pleased that I logged in for the first time all year. 

[stormy]

Congratulations Winchester!!!!!!

I'm still DRY.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Is this finally ushering in the wet pattern or is it another head fake?

[Eskimo Joe]

41 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is this finally ushering in the wet pattern or is it another head fake?

Let's see how we're looking by Friday. If it's a bust then we might be having a problem. You're starting to see a few of the mets in the main ENSO threads ponder if this El Nino isn't fully coupling with the atmosphere.

[Weather Will]

WB latest weeklies for October....seasonable temps and still dry.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest weeklies for October....seasonable temps and still dry.

Something isn’t adding up.

[high risk]

Euro really wants to retrograde the coastal low and ruin the second part of the upcoming weekend.

[JenkinsJinkies]

CWG mentions the possibility of another coastal storm in 2 weeks.

[nw baltimore wx]

35 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

CWG mentions the possibility of another coastal storm in 2 weeks.

0z gfs says it’s a prelude to winter once the southeast ridge gets established. Apps runner.   

In seriousness, it’s good to see the gulf open.

 

[WxUSAF]

End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October 

[MillvilleWx]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October 

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts. 

[frd]

50 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts. 

The pattern for later this month and October seems to favor warmer periods and then cooler airmasses and then back to warm again, cycling through the month. 

As mentioned by @WxUSAF early part of October looks to have a rather large cool down over the NE and Mid Atlantic. 

 

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2102759592245469438

 

From BAM WX  

 

The early - mid October pattern looks to feature more frequent shots of colder air across the Eastern US. While we have another warm up next week, keep a close eye on the potential for the coolest air of the season arriving behind stronger fronts ~October 3 - 5th and October 7 - 9th.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October 

Question is will we pay for it with 80s in the back half?

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

End of next week could have a couple warm days but some growing support for a very robust cold shot early in October 

Agree and very excited for it. I am soooooo sick of drenching humidity when working outside. This has been the worst summer for that in my life. Last summer the first half was just brutal but things switched up by August and the second half was very reasonable. This year was door to door unrelenting down here.

I'll have to check anom maps but my area has to be +5 or something like that. We had a ton of lows in the low 70s and thats not normal. Usually we get into the 60s even when it's 90-95. The relentless humidity made tough to get pleasant nights after a 90+ day. 

It seems like this current storm sets things in motion in the upper levels to get some amplified deep continental cold fronts with blocking above to lock HP to the north down. And it could have some staying power where strings of AN days are brief and beautiful fall weather dominates overall. Time will tell but I feel pretty optimistic that's where we're heading.  

ETA: I checked temp anomaly plots and it's only +2-3 for summer. Seemed a lot worse. Must be the high humidity making it feel terrible day after day after day lol

 

[TSSN+]

Models have again not done well handling this system. Now the euro has it back to impacting the area. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, frd said:

The pattern for later this month and October seems to favor warmer periods and then cooler airmasses and then back to warm again, cycling through the month. 

As mentioned by @WxUSAF early part of October looks to have a rather large cool down over the NE and Mid Atlantic. 

 

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2102759592245469438

 

From BAM WX  

 

The early - mid October pattern looks to feature more frequent shots of colder air across the Eastern US. While we have another warm up next week, keep a close eye on the potential for the coolest air of the season arriving behind stronger fronts ~October 3 - 5th and October 7 - 9th.

 

This seems hyperbolic. Likely based off of op runs. The latest GEFS and EPS runs have high temps ranging from upper 60s to low 70s(even mid 70s) for the first week to 10 days of October. Nice, but not chilly for early Oct. Looks about the same as what we have now through the next several days.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Models have again not done well handling this system. Now the euro has it back to impacting the area. 

The Europeans are the only globals doing this. Euro and Ukie. Could be right? GFS and CMC barely scrape the immediate coast with some light rain. Mt holly has a 20% chance of showers here. Pretty low confidence for anything significant.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree and very excited for it. I am soooooo sick of drenching humidity when working outside. This has been the worst summer for that in my life. Last summer the first half was just brutal but things switched up by August and the second half was very reasonable. This year was door to door unrelenting down here.

I'll have to check anom maps but my area has to be +5 or something like that. We had a ton of lows in the low 70s and thats not normal. Usually we get into the 60s even when it's 90-95. The relentless humidity made tough to get pleasant nights after a 90+ day. 

It seems like this current storm sets things in motion in the upper levels to get some amplified deep continental cold fronts with blocking above to lock HP to the north down. And it could have some staying power where strings of AN days are brief and beautiful fall weather dominates overall. Time will tell but I feel pretty optimistic that's where we're heading.  

ETA: I checked temp anomaly plots and it's only +2-3 for summer. Seemed a lot worse. Must be the high humidity making it feel terrible day after day after day lol

 

Too hot, ehh? You're getting old Bob. Join the club. I've been a member only too long.

[TSSN+]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Europeans are the only globals doing this. Euro and Ukie. Could be right? GFS and CMC barely scrape the immediate coast with some light rain. Mt holly has a 20% chance of showers here. Pretty low confidence for anything significant.

Gfs moved sw at 18z so will keep eyes on it