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1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable 

yes but no storms because the upper atmosphere is dryer and unfavorable for development - that will change tomorrow. Not much dryer down here at the surface very uncomfortable

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Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night.

A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay.

A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -9.89 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Hopefully, this is Summer's last hurrah. Really tired of the relentless heatwaves.

its August 9th NOT September 9th = according to the Calendar The halfway point of summer was only a few days ago

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11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its August 9th NOT September 9th = according to the Calendar The halfway point of summer was only a few days ago

Not meteorological summer. We've got about 21 days left of that.

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7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:


Dewpoint inching up to 70 here, tomorrow looks like a steam bath low-mid 90s and DT in low 70s

and the  rest of the atmosphere primed and ready for another potential severe outbreak.......

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Hopefully, this is Summer's last hurrah. Really tired of the relentless heatwaves.

You've had relentless heatwaves by you?  I haven't had a heateave since the one around 4th of July.  

Yesterday just missed 90 here and tomorrow is iffy, so technically no heatwave again.  If you look at previous summers, even just since 2015, we've had far worse heat and humidity.  This wasn't bad at all.

I'd actually argue we had very little extended heat this summer.  When we got a warm surge it packed a punch but then didn't stick around.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Almost seems like an aspect of a more monsoonal type climate when the highest annual temperatures occur earlier before the heavier rains arrive.

There's multiple reasons for it. Increasing moisture and the rise of a 5th season is one. Summer is really just June and July now. I'd say August and September are now a 5th season between Summer and Fall you could call it monsoon season. I dont think we'll ever see the heat records of yore broken at least not in our lifetimes. I'm talking about 106 at Central Park in 1936 and 107 at LGA in 1966. I dont even think the 108 at EWR from July 2011 will be broken in our lifetimes. My basis for that is if the difference between number 1 and number 2 is 3 degrees or more. With Central Park the foliage is also factored in. JFKs 104 has a chance of being broken because they've hit 102 and 103 numerous times just like EWRs previous record of 105 was low hanging fruit because 105 has been hit there so many times even more than once in the same heatwave in 1993.

As far as August triple digit heat goes once you get out of the oven that is Newark it's even more rare.  Another factor is the shortening day and lower sun angle in August. Besides this day back in 2001 I can't remember the last time it hit 100 in August in Central Park and JFK hasn't done it since 1983 when they hit 100 both in July and August. I take EWR and LGA numbers with a huge grain of salt because they are surrounded by an unnatural environment of concrete and asphalt. I dont think the extremely long heat wave of 1953 will ever be matched either much less in late August or that 102 in early September.  Not in our lifetimes anyway.  Just because the average temperatures are rising doesn't mean we are going to break all time records or even monthly records.  On the contrary water vapor which is a far worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide elevates the mins while flattening the maxes so the difference between min and max becomes compressed. This is more likely after July because the higher water temperature in August causes higher dew points. So the absolutely amazing triple digit records in August from years like 1918, 1948 and 1953 are probably safe as are the overall heat records from years like 1911, 1936 and 1966.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

There's been no heat dome here since the middle of July.

Whatever is causing these multiple days of 90 degree heat... I'd officially like to stop. Until June 2027.

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Just because the average temperatures are rising doesn't mean we are going to break all time records or even monthly records. 

Some stations in NJ just set their May monthly maximum high temperature when they reached 100°. In early July multiple stations were within a few degrees of their monthly max for July and all-time high.

Last June Baiting Hollow on Eastern LI reached 103° far from any urbanization and may have been the highest all-time temperature for that area. So all stations regardless of how urbanized they have been experiencing record heat. 

The drier pattern from the 1940s to early 2000s produced monthly maxes in August and September which haven’t been matched. Probably related to the early extreme summer heat in recent years turning wetter as we move into August and September. 

You will notice we had all-time record October heat as recently at 2019 in the mid 90s. That was the result of a flash drought which developed later in the season. 

February 2018 was probably our most extreme monthly max of any month reaching 80° for the first time at the areas away from the cooler ocean influence. A summer extreme of that magnitude would give the usual warm spots a reading in the 110° to 112° range.


 

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we have returned to previous days pattern after a one day storm break yesterday  - showers already moving this way from central PA - nothing severe YET.

UPDATE : One just turned severe few minutes after I made this post

SVR from KCTP

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82 / DP : 67.  Partly cloudy an areas of storms moving from S-Central PA to E-PA should push some clouds and showers into C-SNJ in the next 1-3 hours, otherwise warm / muggy.  Day 5 of the heatwave for some 90 - 95 type day with enough sun - clouds being a caveat.   The warmest / sunniest spots get a day 6 on Tuesday but many upper 80s / low 90s.  Riding near - above normal - a push back warm upper 80s / low 90s Thursday in the hotter locations.  Trough into the northeast looking transient in the 8/17 - 8/19 range and then back to overall above normal 8/21 and beyond.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1949)
NYC: 98 (1949)
LGA: 99 (1949)
JFK: 94 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1962)
NYC: 55 (1879)
LGA: 57 (1962)
JFK: 54 (1964)

Historical:

1778: A major hurricane struck along the east coast. The storm could have played a decisive role in a major naval battle between the French and British fleets, but British naval commanders failed to capitalize on their advantage after the larger French ships were damaged more heavily by the storm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1831: A violent hurricane devastated the island of Barbados. The death toll was estimated to be as high as 2,500 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1882 - Sandusky OH noted a four minute snow squall during the morning, frost was reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and a killing frost was reported at Cresco IA. (The Weather Channel)

1884 - An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering a magnitude 5.5, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The tremor made houses shake, chimneys fall, and residents wonder what the heck was going on, according to a New York Times article two days later.

1884: An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering 5.2 on the Richter scale, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The quake produced a small tsunami from the Hudson River to the Delaware River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1898 - The temperature at Pendleton OR climbed all the way to 119 degrees at set a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1924 - Colorado's deadliest tornado killed a woman and nine children in one house along its twenty-mile path east southeast of Thurman. Mennonite men had left the farm to provide possible aid, as the 200-yard wide storm was first seen while far away.(The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature soared to 114 degrees at Plain Dealing, LA, and reached 120 degrees at Ozark AR, to establish record highs for those two states. (The Weather Channel)

1943: The lightning of August 10, 1943. In the worst lightning incident in Washington, DC regional history, six soldiers were killed on a Ft. Belvoir drill field. A large group of soldiers was playing baseball, and the game had just been called due to the approaching storm. As the troops began to disperse, a bolt of lightning struck in the middle of the group. Six soldiers were instantly killed and the sudden bolt of lightning injured nine other men.
(Unusual and Noteworthy Meteorological Events at Washington, D.C.) (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

 

1974: Clayton Lake, N. Mex.--A camper was struck and killed by lightning at 9 p.m. during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1980 - Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

 

1981: In Moapa Valley, 80 miles north of Las Vegas, NV two storms 14 miles apart dropped 6.5 inches and 5 inches of rain, respectively, with most of it (85%) occurring in 15 minutes. Rains of such intensity happen once every 200 to 500 years. 762 cattle were killed at a dairy in Hidden Valley. Damage in Moapa Valley was estimated at $10 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date. Macon GA hit 101 degrees. A tropical depression deluged southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana with torrential rains. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Citizens of Bluefield, WV, where the Chamber of Commerce provides free lemonade on days when the temperature warms into the 90s, were able to celebrate their record high of 90 degrees. Eight other cities also reported record high temperatures for the date,including Bismarck ND with a reading of 102 degrees.(The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: Torrential rainfall caused flooding over parts of north-central Oklahoma. Rainfall of more than four inches in just a few hours produced widespread street flooding in Enid and collapsed the roof of a meat company in the city. Much of the Enid Correctional Center was severely damaged as all of the first floor housing units suffered water damage. Four inmates became trapped by the rising water and had to be rescued. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Lightning struck a nursing home at Sandy, UT. A patient was struck when the current entered his room, temporarily blinding him, but freeing him of intense pain he had been suffering for 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Baja California in Mexico, and Alberta in Canada lost power when the massive blackout occurred. High temperatures in the 90s and 100s sent the demand for power to high levels. Some of the specific highs included 88° at Seattle, WA, 98° at Portland, OR, a record breaking 100° at Burns, OR, 106° at Phoenix, AZ, and a record 110° at Sacramento, CA. Temperatures in the deserts of California and Arizona were in the 110-120° range. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)



2001: Lightning hit the Hog Island Association (Mummers Parade) building in Philadelphia, PA and set it on fire. More than 60% of the 100 costumes for the Mummers Parade were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2016: August 9-16. Weak low pressure combined with abundant Gulf moisture produced phenomenal rainfall and flooding across central Louisiana, inundating entire neighborhoods and towns, especially around Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Rainfall totals exceeded 20 inches in as little as two days. Thirteen people died and economic costs ranged from $10 to $15 billion.

2020: Summary: A well-organized and long-lived complex of storms produced widespread severe ? wind damage across Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana during the day on Monday, ? August 10. Much of this severe wind was significant (75+ mph winds) resulting in many ? downed trees, several toppled-over semi trucks, and many communities receiving at least ? some minor structural damage. Within the broader area of severe winds, 15 tornadoes were ? confirmed across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. (Ref.Chicago Derecho that also hit Iowa with 110 MPH winds.)

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