Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,998
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable 

yes but no storms because the upper atmosphere is dryer and unfavorable for development - that will change tomorrow. Not much dryer down here at the surface very uncomfortable

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night.

A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay.

A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -9.89 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Hopefully, this is Summer's last hurrah. Really tired of the relentless heatwaves.

its August 9th NOT September 9th = according to the Calendar The halfway point of summer was only a few days ago

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:


Dewpoint inching up to 70 here, tomorrow looks like a steam bath low-mid 90s and DT in low 70s

and the  rest of the atmosphere primed and ready for another potential severe outbreak.......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Hopefully, this is Summer's last hurrah. Really tired of the relentless heatwaves.

You've had relentless heatwaves by you?  I haven't had a heateave since the one around 4th of July.  

Yesterday just missed 90 here and tomorrow is iffy, so technically no heatwave again.  If you look at previous summers, even just since 2015, we've had far worse heat and humidity.  This wasn't bad at all.

I'd actually argue we had very little extended heat this summer.  When we got a warm surge it packed a punch but then didn't stick around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Almost seems like an aspect of a more monsoonal type climate when the highest annual temperatures occur earlier before the heavier rains arrive.

There's multiple reasons for it. Increasing moisture and the rise of a 5th season is one. Summer is really just June and July now. I'd say August and September are now a 5th season between Summer and Fall you could call it monsoon season. I dont think we'll ever see the heat records of yore broken at least not in our lifetimes. I'm talking about 106 at Central Park in 1936 and 107 at LGA in 1966. I dont even think the 108 at EWR from July 2011 will be broken in our lifetimes. My basis for that is if the difference between number 1 and number 2 is 3 degrees or more. With Central Park the foliage is also factored in. JFKs 104 has a chance of being broken because they've hit 102 and 103 numerous times just like EWRs previous record of 105 was low hanging fruit because 105 has been hit there so many times even more than once in the same heatwave in 1993.

As far as August triple digit heat goes once you get out of the oven that is Newark it's even more rare.  Another factor is the shortening day and lower sun angle in August. Besides this day back in 2001 I can't remember the last time it hit 100 in August in Central Park and JFK hasn't done it since 1983 when they hit 100 both in July and August. I take EWR and LGA numbers with a huge grain of salt because they are surrounded by an unnatural environment of concrete and asphalt. I dont think the extremely long heat wave of 1953 will ever be matched either much less in late August or that 102 in early September.  Not in our lifetimes anyway.  Just because the average temperatures are rising doesn't mean we are going to break all time records or even monthly records.  On the contrary water vapor which is a far worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide elevates the mins while flattening the maxes so the difference between min and max becomes compressed. This is more likely after July because the higher water temperature in August causes higher dew points. So the absolutely amazing triple digit records in August from years like 1918, 1948 and 1953 are probably safe as are the overall heat records from years like 1911, 1936 and 1966.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...