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1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable 

yes but no storms because the upper atmosphere is dryer and unfavorable for development - that will change tomorrow. Not much dryer down here at the surface very uncomfortable

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Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night.

A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay.

A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -9.89 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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