Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[SouthCoastMA]

I do have many of these distinct childhood memories of being at baseball games in the early to mid 90s and seeing a wall of cumulonimbus in the distance, as the sun fades under the horizon. A harbinger of actual severe storms. And also being under actual Severe Thunderstorm watches many times during the summer. Barely see anything like that now. 

I'd like to see some stats to justify my childhood memories. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I do have many of these distinct childhood memories of being at baseball games in the early to mid 90s and seeing a wall of cumulonimbus in the distance, as the sun fades under the horizon. A harbinger of actual severe storms. And also being under actual Severe Thunderstorm watches many times during the summer. Barely see anything like that now. 

I'd like to see some stats to justify my childhood memories. 

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. 

But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford  

But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 

1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's). 

[Prismshine Productions]

The only bright side to growing up and spending 29 years in South Carolina... You get used to bullshit like this

[Sey-Mour Snow]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The HRRR may be a bit too aggressive with weakening that activity tonight. 

One big key I think will be how organized the cluster is as it develops across PA/NJ (does it develop a cold pool to sustain on?) and what we are looking at for MUCAPE. Kind of hard to see an organized cluster weaken if MUCAPE is still pushing 2000+ J

Ya I noticed it just weakens right as it enters Fairfield County, but looks impressive for Western Fairfield county

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

The only bright side to growing up and spending 29 years in South Carolina... You get used to bullshit like this




 

Perfect low temp, roughly matching dew

[Prismshine Productions]

Perfect low temp, roughly matching dew

It is 10:20 am and already 81

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Where’s that dude in CT who goes and hides when temps get above 70?  Reminds me of that dude from the movie Powder.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

It is 10:20 am and already 81

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Get after it. These are the dews of our lives.

[Baroclinic Zone]

90/72 and 86/73 scortchah

[SouthCoastMA]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. 

But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford  

But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 

1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's). 

Yeah from my memory it was usually a widespread event like you said..a huge line that occassionally held together. With those expansive TWC yellow severe watch polygons from Maine down to the mid atlantic. Nocturnal convection seemed more frequent too. Again, all just a memory..and wonder about any stats. I'm too lazy to do the digging

[SouthCoastMA]

84/76.3

dews creepin, creeps dewin

[FXWX]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes your area FTW over and over . July 4th was a beast . I just am looking for my first gentle tshower 

Yes, to July 4th... one of the most intense super-cells I have gone through since moving to the Burlington area; I had ~1-inch hail and 57 mph gust but was on the very northern edge of the cell; the wind damage I surveyed in the Harwinton to Bristol area pretty remarkable...  My sister's house in Plainville needs to have roof, siding and some windows replace...

[SouthCoastMA]

86/77.5 things sticking to every surface

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully I get trained again, keep the streak of 5-10" dongs going

Good summer?

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yes, to July 4th... one of the most intense super-cells I have gone through since moving to the Burlington area; I had ~1-inch hail and 57 mph gust but was on the very northern edge of the cell; the wind damage I surveyed in the Harwinton to Bristol area pretty remarkable...  My sister's house in Plainville needs to have roof, siding and some windows replace...

I remember so many of those storms growing up when I was a kid. If not over me, then nearby. Even the 00s were good. I can't find a good scientific explanation, but convection has really been lame since 2015. Although I will say my hood has had a few doozies with wind damage...but I mean from an overall perspective.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember so many of those storms growing up when I was a kid. If not over me, then nearby. Even the 00s were good. I can't find a good scientific explanation, but convection has really been lame since 2015. Although I will say my hood has had a few doozies with wind damage...but I mean from an overall perspective.

You would think with the increasing dews and longevity of higher dewpoints (we'll say 70+) that would yield potential for stronger and more widespread events but that has not been the case. This is more thought so data could prove otherwise, but it also seems like summer cold fronts have a tendency to be weaker (which would make some deal of sense given a warmer Arctic). Just from memory though with the 90's it felt like these periods of excessive dews were much less common and we had to wait until like August to really get them. When we did get those hot and humid days the duration was barely heat wave criteria and it would end with a strong front, a big line of storms and then we would have a stretch of days with 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's. We'll probably eventually cycle back but the dataset is so small its hard to say what the return rate for such a stretch is. 

Maybe there is a bit of luck involved too. It seemed like we timed good EMLs with fronts pretty well from the mid-to-late 90's and then went forever without a good EML event. 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

You would think with the increasing dews and longevity of higher dewpoints (we'll say 70+) that would yield potential for stronger and more widespread events but that has not been the case. This is more thought so data could prove otherwise, but it also seems like summer cold fronts have a tendency to be weaker (which would make some deal of sense given a warmer Arctic). Just from memory though with the 90's it felt like these periods of excessive dews were much less common and we had to wait until like August to really get them. When we did get those hot and humid days the duration was barely heat wave criteria and it would end with a strong front, a big line of storms and then we would have a stretch of days with 70's to lower 80's and dewpoints in the 50's. We'll probably eventually cycle back but the dataset is so small its hard to say what the return rate for such a stretch is. 

Maybe there is a bit of luck involved too. It seemed like we timed good EMLs with fronts pretty well from the mid-to-late 90's and then went forever without a good EML event. 

I remember in my younger days we called them the Dog Days of August. I believe the Almanacs called it the Dog days of Summer. As always …..

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, rclab said:

I remember in my younger days we called them the Dog Days of August. I believe the Almanacs called it the Dog days of Summer. As always …..

Could easily grab the data from Iowa State but it felt like you really had to wait until August to get 70F dewpoints...they would happen in June or July but it was a short duration...likely just out ahead of an approaching cold front. 

I also remember back in the late 2000's when I became introduced to weather models and even maybe early 2010's...we'd see the NAM go with dewpoints like 72-73-74 and it would be tossed. The NAM had a tendency to go bonkers with dewpoints. Now you see those dewpoints modeled and there's no tossing lol

[weatherwiz]

I think we're going to see a pretty nasty cluster of thunderstorms moving northeast across CT into MA this evening. Should be a quite a bit of lightning with flash flooding as a concern. Not sure if there will be damaging wind potential throughout but I could see a pocket of wind damage into southwestern Hartford County from NJ, southeast NY, and through Fairfield County

[dendrite]

86.4/68

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

I remember in my younger days we called them the Dog Days of August. I believe the Almanacs called it the Dog days of Summer. As always …..

 

[weatherwiz]

ahhh there is nothing like the sound of unsticking your shorts from your body. You have to do it very slowly and in a very quiet environment but its a very pleasant and soothing sound for the ears and your spiritual body.