SchaumburgStormer Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, nvck said: don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line Fucking Broyles 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Fucking Broyles I got a DM from someone purporting to be Chris Broyles over on Talkweather; addressing the opinions I've expressed about him in the posts I've made on there (I was a LITTLE more tactful than that!). Not sure if I believe it. That's all I'll say about that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: I got a DM from someone purporting to be Chris Broyles over on Talkweather; addressing the opinions I've expressed about him in the posts I've made on there (I was a LITTLE more tactful than that!). Not sure if I believe it. That's I'll I'll say about that. I'm sure it was in fact him, lol... Heeeyyy Chris!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Quite breezy as the backside of the rain starts to work through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Well, this thing is far from over for those of us down in my area and west. There were always 2 shortwaves forecasted with this for the last 72 hours and a lot of questions if the WF would make it up to the IN/MI border after this initial shortwave. Spacing will be everything. The surface reflection is just now getting wound up. TBH, this MCS is coming through a couple hours sooner than I was expecting.. There's still a good chance of recovery as the second SW comes through and the surface low rapidly deepens. I think at least S of I80 to the I70 corridor from MO up through Central IN and Western OH are still going to be under the gun for broken lines of long tracked sups from around 3pm on. Especially if that LLJ cranks up like it did yesterday. You don't need huge Capes and/or dews in the mid to upper 70's with a setup like this. We know this from our experiences with early and late season powerful kinematic setups like this. 60 to 180 veering winds through the column can more than make up for large Capes IMO. I'm not shutting the door at all yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convectionone of the worst md’s and watches from them this year, maybe the worst.totally uncalled for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Fucking Broyles he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Wind really roared here for about 10-15 minutes. 51MPH gust at recorded at DKB. Power has flickered several times. 53 degrees out. Pretty unreal for June 17, feels more like April 17. ETA: Winds still going, 49MPH gust recorded as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Yeah the back side winds have been impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah the back side winds have been impressive. Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow jet flexing its muscles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow et flexing its muscles? Wake low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow et flexing its muscles? Think it's some process that's enhancing the surface flow. Bringing some of the higher velocity winds down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Reverse jinx. THIS IS OUR MOMENT not this time, that was a real call for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Good amount of 2-3” limbs down all over town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Typical rainy fall day here 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern/central Missouri...western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171803Z - 172000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon with potential for all hazards including damaging wind, large hail, and strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Morning convection has moved into central/eastern Illinois, with trailing outflow and a zone of differential heating extending across northern Missouri into south-central Illinois. This zone will be the focus of redevelopment of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Strong daytime heating is ongoing across central/northern Missouri into far western Illinois in the cloud free zone south of the outflow. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates that MLCIN is eroding in this region, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s F. This is further confirmed by visible satellite trends with the cumulus near the vicinity of the outflow also becoming increasingly agitated. Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts is analyzed across this region, with STP around 2-3 across northern Missouri into far western Illinois. This in combination with strong to moderate instability edging northward will likely support initial supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (perhaps strong). A 40-50 kt low level jet axis extends from the southern/central Plains into Missouri/western Illinois. This is progged to shift north and eastward through the afternoon, which may shift the higher STP and more favorable tornado potential into portions of western/central Illinois. One or more watches will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38788965 39578844 40158794 40518805 40738844 40788904 40599090 40469164 40309251 40129360 40049405 39629469 39309489 38959516 38169511 37979368 38499057 38619015 38788965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like a roughly 20 degree difference in surface temperatures between central IL and northeast MO. Definitely a healthy boundary there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a casual 60 kt jet and supercell composite of 20, and mixing level CAPE of 1,500 - 2,500 in northeast Missouri. Something is going to fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Re: IWX's forecast area... I think along and south of IN State Road 14 has a shot at a strong tornado. Maybe a spin-up along and south of U.S. 30. My biggest concern in South Bend is whether my basement gets water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Well today seems to have shifted to an I72 event in IL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 80/70 probs on the new watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Re: IWX's forecast area... I think along and south of IN State Road 14 has a shot at a strong tornado. Maybe a spin-up along and south of U.S. 30. My biggest concern in South Bend is whether my basement gets water. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Definitely has the feel of an underperformer today. Seems like stuff already popping for 2nd round. We need more time to recover. But shear is stupid so something will probably happen on boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Tropical downpour and constant lightning in this band moving through. Nice to get a little garden variety action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Definitely has the feel of an underperformer today. Seems like stuff already popping for 2nd round. We need more time to recover. But shear is stupid so something will probably happen on boundary. Bingo. Looks like a complete bust in all honesty, the whole area of clearing is already filling in with convection. I’ve seen the subway less packed than IL/MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago we've got to get some supercells quickly now in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Chase plans cancelled due to clear southward shifts in supercell tornado risk coupled with a brutal week at work. Tornadoes miss southern Wisconsin/IL north of 88 to the north in April and to the south in June? Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago Looks like things are about to kick off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like things are about to kick off. Storm West of Bloomington IL is trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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